Chad’s Bracket Projection 2-20-2017

Posted on February 20, 2017 by Chad

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Texas-Arlington and Georgia Southern – CLICK HERE.

Below is my personal projection for the Bracket through games of Sunday, February 19, 2017.  I have also included my notes on the selections, and down below the bracket you will find comments from other staff members here at Hoops HD where they either praise or rip apart my selections.

CHAD’S NOTES

– For the first time in weeks, there is a change amongst the 1 seeds, as Baylor falls to 5th overall and the Tar Heels are now on the 1 line.  I also moved Kansas over Gonzaga to #2 overall based on their huge win at Baylor (the Zags have nothing close to that good on their profile despite being undefeated).

– Not only is Duke on the 2 line now after yet another strong week (more notably by winning at Virginia than the way they beat Wake Forest), but they are #6 overall.  I think there is actually a fairly large gap between the top 5 teams and the Blue Devils, but a 1 seed may actually be in the picture if  they win every remaining game through the ACC Tournament championship.

– I also had the three Pac-12 schools (Arizona, Oregon and UCLA) back-to-back-to-back on my S-Curve, with Arizona still holding the edge.  This is actually an important battle because the winner of it will be the only one of the three that gets to head to the West Regional.

– Virginia has been playing a killer schedule lately, but in the end you have to at least win a couple of those games.  The Hoos are still among the top 16 teams — but they came in at #16 overall.

– I may get ripped for Florida being two lines below Kentucky, but I prefer UK’s overall profile and I still need to see a bit more out of Florida now that John Egbunu is out.  If they keep winning without him, they will be right back up there very quickly.  They have South Carolina and Arkansas at home, Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the road to finish the season, so the tests will be there.

– The bubble continues to shrink.  I am fairly comfortable that everyone on my 10 line and higher belongs in the field.  Michigan State on the 11 probably belongs in too, but they are a team that will now have to prove they can win without Eron Harris.  Georgia Tech and Kansas State were my last two teams to avoid the First Four and both have resumes that make me want to vomit.  Even then, they are better than the First Four teams (Seton Hall, TCU, Alabama and Pitt).

– Middle Tennessee was above my First Four far enough that I now believe they would get an at-large if they win out to the CUSA finals.  UNC-Wilmington was in my S-Curve in the middle of the First Four teams, but that would not be enough to survive a bad loss in the CAA tournament.  Texas-Arlington was my highest rated team below the First Four and with five regular season games left, including tonight’s Under the Radar Game of the Day (CLICK HERE), plus the Sun Belt tournament, has an outside shot at an at-large bid as well.

– I will be ripped for putting Alabama in.  I will be ripped more for putting a Pitt team in that is 4-10 in ACC play.  Yet, who else was available?  The top four teams out, in order, were Texas Tech, Illinois State, Cal and Syracuse.  The only other teams worth considering were Providence, Clemson, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Indiana, Rhode Island and Houston.  I will take Pitt’s top wins over any of those.  I will take an Alabama team that won at South Carolina and lacks any bad losses over any of those.

– I anticipate an argument being made, at least by John Stalica, that the team I should have chosen was Illinois State.  I still hate their profile.  Despite hating it, they only narrowly missed my field.  The Redbirds’ biggest problem is a lack of quality wins and the only chance to pick one more up that they have left would be in the MVC tournament finals against Wichita State.  Of course, if they win that game, they are in with an automatic bid.  That being said, even though they cannot do anything to make their resume better, they will have four chances (two regular season games and the first two rounds of the MVC tournament) to make it worse.  Just one more bad mark would be devastating.  They have a shot still, but they better win the next four and hope that the rest of the bubble continues to implode around them.

 

 

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-We need to send some sort of search party out for Chad’s mind, because he has clearly lost it!

-Okay, the number of things that I strongly disagree with is actually a low number.  But the things I do disagree with are so over the top crazy that it offsets the fact that there aren’t that many of them.  But, we’ll get to that later.  Let’s start with some of his outlying picks that I may not entirely agree with, but that I don’t find to be too insane either.

-Alabama may appear to be a strange pick.  But, I am actually able to swallow it.  I gag on it as it’s going down, but I’m able to swallow it.  They do have a very nice win at South Carolina, and they’ve pretty much held serve other than that.  They do have a loss at Texas, but that loss came prior to Tevin Mack being suspended, and I think they’d be at least an NIT caliber team if Mack was still playing.  Now, winning one big game and holding serve outside of that isn’t much of a profile, but it is at least something, and we’ve seen teams get in with profiles like that before.  And, as he points out, a lot of the teams around them haven’t done much either.

-I don’t agree that Gonzaga should be any lower than the #1 overall.  Having said that, they do not have the paper.  So, if you want to make them the #1 overall you have to do it by means of “reasonable supposition.”  Chad is a lawyer.  He will almost never deploy that line of thinking.  But, it is reasonable.  Gonzaga hasn’t had as many tough tests as Kansas and Villanova, but they have had a few, and they’ve passed every one of them.  I think they’ve done enough to demonstrate that they are the best team.  They’ve beaten four teams away from home that will be wearing white in the Round of 64, and they haven’t lost to anyone.

-Well, maybe Chad does deploy “reasonable supposition” after all.  Wisconsin is on his #3 line.  I like this Badger team, but I’m having to use my imagination just to get them onto the #4 line as a protected seed.  He has them all the way up on the #3 line despite their best win being at Minnesota, and their second best win being against Tennessee on a neutral floor, who isn’t even a tournament team.  I know they have a home win against Michigan, but everyone who’s played Michigan at home (with one exception) has beaten Michigan, so I can’t really call that a “quality win.”  If anything I now have an easier time making a case for Purdue, who has an equal conference record, but also has wins at Maryland and against Notre Dame.  And at Michigan State.  Oh yea, and also against Wisconsin.  In fact putting Wisconsin that high isn’t “reasonable” at all.  I’m not sure what it is.

-Chad now has Arkansas on his #9 line.  I just want to say that I’m impressed with how Arkansas has played lately, and the way I remember it I’ve been rather impressed with them all season long while people like Chad were doubting them.

-If you go with results, and wins, and what’s on paper, then you like the Georgia Tech pick.  I like the Georgia Tech pick, at least when compared to other teams that were left out.  Winning games is what counts in conference standings.  You advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament by winning the game.  So, when I evaluate teams, I look at what games they’ve won and how hard those games were to win.  Georgia Tech has won more games that were hard to win than most of the rest of the bubble.  Their RPI could be better.  Their power ratings are lousy.  But, they have wins, and wins are what matters.  It’s why you play the game according to….some former NFL coach (who’s name I honestly can’t remember, but the soundbyte is legendary.  And correct). (It was Herm Edwards. – John S)

-Now let’s look at the pick that makes me think Chad might have lead in his house.  Pittsburgh.  Categorically speaking when a team is 4 games below .500 in league play they are not making it.  It’s only happened once in the entire history of Planet Earth.  Pitt is SIX games below .500!!  Now, they did win at Maryland, but that was an anomaly.  That is offset by losses to NC State and Duquesne.  DUQUESNE!!!  The best thing you can say about them is that they’ve lost to a lot of good teams.  Well, there are many teams in the SWAC that did the same thing in November and December and we don’t see them on the list.  When you compare them to, say, Syracuse, who is four-and-a-half games ahead of them in the standings, I can’t help but think they’re the better pick.

-I get why Chad doesn’t like Illinois State.  They don’t have all those losses to good teams that Pitt has!!

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– I’ll start at the 3-line since I don’t really take umbrage to what’s listed on the Top 2 lines. If you’re going to be this high like Kentucky is, I’d better see more quality wins than just North Carolina and South Carolina (at least in terms of first-ballot teams). I’d argue that both Florida State and West Virginia (even with recent hiccups) belong up here as opposed to UK and Wisconsin. The Badgers can wind up as high as a 3 if they win the Big Ten, but if I really had to argue for a B1G team up here, I’ll take Purdue for now.

– With Virginia only a couple of games above .500, I’m more tempted to have them as my top 5 seed for the time being. Sweeping Louisville helps, but splitting with Virginia Tech and losing to bubbilicious teams like Pitt and Syracuse makes it more difficult to justify a protected seed for now.

– For selfish reasons, I think USC is a seed line too low (even with a bloated record) and Dayton a seed line too high. Do a 3-way switch with Michigan and we’ll have a great rivalry in Greenville where Carolina fans can pick sides as to whether or not they’re Xavier fans or Dayton fans. Xavier fans are not quite as eager to claim the birthplace of aviation like Dayton fans are, so I for one recognize who is truly first in flight here. (End of Bill Waltonesque rant.)

– My two cents on Pittsburgh – recent wins against Florida State and Syracuse are nice, but I would have entertained a bubble pick like this 2 weeks later (as opposed to now when they’re 4-10). Couldn’t you at least have beaten Clemson at home and put them out of their misery once and for all? I’m holding Pitt responsible for all the fools who still think Clemson is an NCAA Tournament team.

– And yes, I do think Chad is rushing to exclude Illinois State from the field. I concede that the paper does not look as pretty, and I hate to acknowledge this, but we already know what teams like Georgia Tech, Pitt and Alabama are. If I were a fellow bubbler, I’d rather play a team like them (i.e. Tulsa or Vandy from last year) as opposed to Illinois State this year (or Wichita State from last year). I agree that an outright 2nd-place Illinois State team in the Valley would not be an at-large caliber team, but I strongly believe that a 1st-place finisher in the Valley (especially if they reach their championship game) deserves a First Four spot over other bubble teams.

– As far as auto-bid leagues go, I’d love to hear Chad’s rationale for South Dakota being picked over North Dakota State. Both teams split head-to-head, so is he anticipating that the Coyotes would win the Summit thanks to home-court advantage in the conference tournament?

REPLIES FROM CHAD

– I will let everything above stand with two exceptions.  First, as to David’s point on Pittsburgh — my computer screen was not big enough to hold all their losses so the Duquesne game got cut off.  I anticipate that my monitor is the same size as the real committee’s, so that loss simply does not count.  But seriously, they were chosen not based on what they have done good, but based on everyone else just being even worse.  They probably have to win 3 of their last 4 ACC games, and two of those are against North Carolina and Virginia, and pick up at least two ACC Tournament wins.

– Since John asked me about the Summit League, I do like NDSU’s overall profile slightly better, but (1) the conference tournament is in Sioux Falls and (2) the Bison have been playing absolutely awful the last few weeks including needing double overtime this past weekend to beat Western Illinois (ranked 295 at KenPom) at home.  The Coyotes have won four straight including a win at North Dakota State and right now are my pick to win that conference tournament.  I don’t think the Bison are playing well enough to even make the tourney finals.

– Actually, one more point.  You both missed it!!!  No comments at all on my South Region 6-11 game.  Epic fails.

 

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Texas-Arlington at Georgia Southern (and Other Highlighted Games)

Posted on February 20, 2017 by Chad

Texas-Arlington at Georgia Southern, 7:00 PM Eastern, ASN/espn3

If you decided to go looking for the wildest standings among any conference this season, you do not have to go further than the Sun Belt.  Entering play tonight, the Texas-Arlington Mavericks (10-3 in conference) hold a half game lead over Arkansas State and Georgia Southern (both 10-4), a game and a half lead over Georgia State (9-5) and a two game lead over Texas State (8-5).  With every team having at least four more games left this season, it is still anybody’s conference to win.  Unfortunately all that winning the league will do is give the winner the top seed in the conference tournament and a guaranteed spot in the NIT should they fail to win it (though in Arlington’s case, an at-large bid to the NCAAs is not yet completely out of the picture).  The tournament will be played at Lakefront Arena in New Orleans and will use a standard format instead of the ladder that had been used the past few years.  Of course, with at least half a dozen teams capable of winning the event, being able to get the 8 or 9 seed in the quarterfinals may be worth winning the title in and of itself.

Tonight’s Under the Radar Game of the Day comes from Statesboro, Georgia as the Georgia Southern Eagles (17-10 overall) will be hosting the first place UTA Mavericks (20-6 overall).  The Eagles jumped out to a great start in conference play, winning their first 7 Sun Belt games and building a nice lead over their conference rivals.  The past few weeks have been less kind, however, as GSU has lost 4 of their last 7 to drop half a game behind Arlington.  They did pick up a three point home win over Texas State on Saturday led by 21 points from one of the Sun Belt’s most exciting and fun players to watch, Tookie Brown.  Brown has twice scored over 30 points this season and, in what can only be bad news for the rest of the Sun Belt, is only a sophomore.  As he gets better and better, Georgia Southern should improve as well.  Even if they do not win the conference this season, the Eagles have no seniors in the rotation and should be a top contender for the next several years.

Texas-Arlington enters play tonight not only in first place in the Sun Belt but also with an RPI in the Top 40 nationally.  Historically, finishing in the Top 40 in the RPI and winning your conference regular season outright is a recipe for an at-large bid.  The Mavs also have a very good road win, winning at Saint Mary’s by 14 points back in early December.  Despite three sub-150 losses (at Texas State, at Troy and at Coastal Carolina), Arlington should definitely merit some discussion in the Selection Committee room if they win their last five regular season games and advance to the Sun Belt championship game, though with that game scheduled for a 2:00 PM Eastern start on Selection Sunday, they could also force the committee to create extra contingency brackets.  The Mavs picked up a huge 68-67 win at Georgia State on Saturday in a game they trailed almost the entire way.  In fact, it was a 35-footer with 1 second left from Erick Neal that let them steal the win and remain on top of the league standings.  With four much more winnable games ahead over the next two weeks, tonight’s game could serve to not only keep the Mavs in the hunt for an at-large bid, but could also be the win that locks up the regular season Sun Belt title.

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-News and Notes from yesterday, and from the rest of the week, will be covered in tonight’s Hoops HD Report.  Be sure and check it out!

-MIAMI FL AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  This is a big game for Virginia not in the sense that they need it to safely make the tournament, but that they need it to pull themselves out of the 2-5 tailspin they’ve been in for seven games.  They still have a good shot at ending up as a protected seed, but they need to hold serve in games like this.  Miami is playing better now than they have all season, and has a chance to build on their profile between now and the end, especially in games like this.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  The most winnable game in the ACC is playing Boston College at home.

-TEXAS AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve).  Texas just doesn’t have it this year, but they still fight tooth and nail in every game.  It’s a very winnable game for West Virginia, but the can’t approach it as if it were a buy game either.

-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  Texas Tech is not entirely out of the picture, but they need a strong finish if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They also need road wins, which they can’t pick up today, but a win today certainly wouldn’t hurt.  Iowa State has improved as the season has gone along as well and can pick up another nice road win for their resume today.

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Bracketology 2017: March Madness Predictions (Version 8.0)

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Jon Teitel

For rundown of today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

We are only 3 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 65 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, each of which was within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 37 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 3rd out of 88 entries over the past 3 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Gonzaga (WCC)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Kansas (Big 12)
1: Baylor (Big 12)

2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: Louisville (ACC)
2: Oregon (Pac-12)
2: Florida State (ACC)

3: Arizona (Pac-12)
3: Florida (SEC)
3: Kentucky (SEC)
3: Duke (ACC)

4: Virginia (ACC)
4: UCLA (Pac-12)
4: West Virginia (Big 12)
4: Butler (Big East)

5: Purdue (Big 10)
5: Creighton (Big East)
5: Cincinnati (AAC)
5: Wisconsin (Big 10)

6: Notre Dame (ACC)
6: Maryland (Big 10)
6: SMU (AAC)
6: South Carolina (SEC)

7: Xavier (Big East)
7: St. Mary’s (WCC)
7: Northwestern (Big 10)
7: Minnesota (Big 10)

8: USC (Pac-12)
8: Oklahoma State (Big 12)
8: Dayton (A-10)
8: Virginia Tech (ACC)

9: Iowa State (Big 12)
9: VCU (A-10)
9: Michigan State (Big 10)
9: Miami FL (ACC)

10: California (Pac-12)
10: Michigan (Big 10)
10: Wichita State (MVC)
10: Kansas State (Big 12)

11: Arkansas (SEC)
11: TCU (Big 12)
11: Seton Hall (Big East)
11: Syracuse (ACC)
11: Clemson (ACC)
11: Illinois State (MVC)

12: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
12: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
12: Nevada (MWC)
12: Akron (MAC)

13: Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt)
13: Vermont (America East)
13: Monmouth (MAAC)
13: Valparaiso (Horizon)

14: Belmont (OVC)
14: Princeton (Ivy)
14: UNC-Asheville (Big South)
14: Bucknell (Patriot)

15: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
15: Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
15: Furman (SoCon)
15: North Dakota State (Summit)

16: Texas Southern (SWAC)
16: NC Central (MEAC)
16: New Orleans (Southland)
16: Weber State (Big Sky)
16: Mount St. Mary’s (NEC)
16: UC Davis (Big West)

 

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Feb 19th

Posted on February 19, 2017 by David Griggs

SURVIVAL BOARD – CLICK HERE to see the entire board

-ORAL ROBERTS (Summit) – Will be eliminated if IUPUI beats Denver.

-Eastern Illinois and Central Connecticut State were mathematically eliminated from qualifying for their conference tournaments yesterday.  Austin Peay survived a shot at elimination, but will be at risk again on Thursday night.

 

NEWS AND NOTES

-For today’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Bucknell and Boston U, CLICK HERE.

-Gonzaga remains unbeaten after rolling over Pacific, and well on pace to earn a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

-Kansas has had a great season, and today they picked up what is probably their greatest win of the year at Baylor.  It was a very exciting game that seesawed back and forth where Baylor had a chance to either win or tie in the final seconds, but came up short.  The loss isn’t that costly for the Bears, but I can see a team like North Carolina jumping over them and ending up on the #1 line.  Speaking of the Tarheels….

-North Carolina beat a very good Virginia team rather handily yesterday.  Virginia is just 2-5 in their last seven games but because of how strong their schedule is they’re still reasonably safe for a protected seed.  North Carolina looks to be playing their best basketball of the season and they’ve got a very good chance at ending up as a #1 seed.

-SMU picked up one of their more impressive wins of the season at Houston.  Houston’s not a tournament team, but they’re still tough to beat at home so the committee should give SMU quite a bit of credit for picking up the win.

-Marquette jumped out to a 21-2 lead against Xavier and never looked back.  This was a win that Marquette really needed seeing as how they were right on the bubble.

-Clemson lost another close game.  This time at Miami FL.  No one almost wins more often than Clemson!

-South Carolina couldn’t get it done at Vanderbilt, but they’re still in reasonably good shape for a bid.

-Kansas State got a big road win at Texas.  It’s not the beating Texas part that was big.  It was the road win that was big.  They only had one coming into yesterday and desperately needed another one.

-In one of the bigger surprises of the day Florida State couldn’t get it done against Pittsburgh, and although they weren’t blown out it didn’t exactly go down to the wire either.  Pitt won by a rather comfortable margin.

-UCLA absolutely crushed USC to win the bragging rights and keep themselves in good shape to earn a protected seed.

-Louisville survived a scare at home against Virginia Tech, as did Duke against Wake Forest, and Arizona survived a far more surprising scare against Washington, but both got the wins.  Oregon, West Virginia, Villanova, Kentucky, Florida, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame are all teams who are likely to finish in the top half of the bracket that picked up wins.

-Michigan State’s Eron Harris suffered what looked like a very bad knee injury and had to be removed from the game on a stretcher.  We wish nothing but the best to him for a quick recovery.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MARYLAND AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Both teams have identical conference records, but despite being at the top of the standings neither are currently being projected as protected seeds (at least not by us).  This is a chance for both of them to pick up one of their better wins of the season up to this point.

-DEPAUL AT BUTLER (Big East).  When a Big East team plays DePaul at home it is their most winnable home game.  Butler shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one.

-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Georgetown can still play their way inside the bubble, but they’ll need a really strong finish in order to make that happen.  Creighton is safely in the field, but needs to pick up some big wins in order to strengthen their profile and show they can still win without Mo Watson.

-SYRACUSE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC).  Syracuse is inside the bubble and will make the field if they hold serve the rest of the way.  Georgia Tech is on the outside looking in and hasn’t looked all that good in their recent games.  They’ll need a strong finish to give themselves a chance.

-MICHIGAN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  Michigan has some nice wins, but one of the things they’re missing is road wins.  To get a road win of this caliber will go a long way toward punching their ticket.  Minnesota has been hot and cold this season, but they appear to be heading toward the top half of the bracket.

-UTAH AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  Utah has an outside shot at best.  They’ll probably need to win out or come close to it to land inside the bubble.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Bucknell at Boston University

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Chad

Bucknell at Boston University, 12:00 PM Eastern, CBS Sports Network

A week and a half ago, the battle for the Patriot League championship appeared to be done and over.  Bucknell looked like they were going to run away with the conference title.  However, this is the Patriot League, a conference that has historically battled it out until the end of the regular season.  The Bucknell Bison have lost 2 of their last 3 games to fall to 20-8 overall and 12-3 in Patriot League play.  Their lead over Boston University (16-11 overall, 10-4 in conference) is down to a single game.  And these top two teams will be battling it out on “The Roof” in Boston this afternoon.  If the Terriers can pull out the home victory, the two teams will enter the final week of the conference regular season in a dead heat for first place and the quest for home court advantage throughout the Patriot League tournament.

Bucknell did pick up the win when these two teams met in Lewisburg, PA earlier this year by a 70-59 score.  Nana Foulland was the star of that game with 23 points for the Bison.  The Terriers were led in that loss by Justin Alston, who scored 20 points.  Alston had another strong game earlier this week at Colgate, getting a double-double with 21 points and 10 rebounds.  All signs point to this being a great game today, and a potential preview of the Patriot league tournament championship game coming up in just a few weeks.  Whose home court that game may end up being played on could very well be decided this afternoon.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Feb 18th

Posted on February 18, 2017 by David Griggs

It’s a very busy and exciting day in college basketball!!  Below is a rundown of all the action.

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between North Dakota and Weber State – CLICK HERE

-Michigan picked up another big win as they knocked off Wisconsin at home.  That definitely helps their case, but the Wolverines still need to pick up one or two more road wins to really help solidify their resume.

-Gonzaga, Arizona, Oregon, and Saint Mary’s all picked up wins on Thursday.

-VCU knocked off Richmond on Friday, which isn’t too shocking, but it was a nice road win in a rivalry game for a team that has a rather small margin for error.

-Akron fell at home to Kent State, and Valparaiso fell on the road to Oakland.  Whatever small hopes those teams had for an at-large is likely gone now.

-Cal also fell at Stanford on the road in a game they really could have used.

 

SURVIVAL BOARD – CLICK HERE to see the entire board

-EASTERN ILLINOIS (OVC) – Mathematically eliminated if they lose OR if both Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State win

-AUSTIN PEAY (OVC) – Mathematically eliminated if they lose to SIU Edwardsville AND if both Tennessee State and Southeast Missouri State win

-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (Northeast) –  Mathematically eliminated if they lose to Robert Morris

-ORAL ROBERTS (Summit) – Mathematically eliminated if they lost at South Dakota and IUPUI wins on Sunday at Denver

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-CLEMSON AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Miami has hit their stride and despite a weak OOC Schedule appears to be on pace to make the NCAA Tournament.  Clemson has a lot of close losses to a lot of good teams and still has work to do, but it is still definitely possible for them to end up on the right side of the bubble and make the field.  This is the kind of game they have to win, though.

-NOTRE DAME AT NC STATE (ACC).  Notre Dame has a solid profile and should easily land in the top half of the bracket, and perhaps with a really good seed if they’re able to finish strong.  This is a winnable road game against an NC State team that’s basically been blown out in six straight games (leading to Mark Gottfried’s eventual dismissal at the end of the season).

-TULSA AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati is on cruise control and should be able to blow through this one at home and sustain what is currently a good resume.

-NORTHERN IOWA AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Northern Iowa has improved as the season has gone along, but not to the point to where they have much of a chance of beating Wichita State on the road.  Wichita is good enough to win out and if they do they should be safely inside the bubble. (Note from John S – keep in mind that Northern Iowa won at Wichita last year and turned a similarly “meh” season into a run that led to winning the MVC. Shockers beware.)

-VILLANOVA AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Nova is on pace to land on the #1 line, and Seton Hall is just inside the bubble and could really use a big time win like this on their profile.  That’s much easier said than done despite the fact that they are at home. Seton Hall will be opening up the upper deck and is expecting a 16K+ crowd for the afternoon.

-MISSOURI AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  If the Vols want any shot at all at landing inside the bubble then they need a strong finish.  Losing at home to Missouri would be the exact opposite of that.

-WAKE FOREST AT DUKE (ACC).  Wake Forest has been on the fringe of the bubble all year long, but the lack of anything even remotely resembling a quality win has kept them on the wrong side of it.  They need to win a game like this in order to change the complexion of their resume.  Duke just keeps improving, and it’s now to the point to where even a #1 seed is not totally out of the question if they’re able to finish strong.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Virginia Tech looks to be safely inside the bubble, and Louisville looks to be safe for a protected seed.  It’s a chance for Virginia Tech to pick up a quality road win which would be a huge improvement to their resume, and for Louisville to stay within reach of a first place finish.

-KANSAS AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve).  Both teams are potential #1 seeds.  Baylor won the first meeting between these two and currently has the stronger profile, but Baylor has been projected on the #1 line for most of the season and can take another big step toward making that a reality if they’re able to beat the Jayhawks at home.

-HARTFORD AT NEW HAMPSHIRE (America East).  The Team of the People!!  After what has been a frustrating season with multiple close losses, they still have a good chance at finishing in the top half of the conference standings and hosting a tournament game in the quarterfinals.

-FLORIDA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Florida continues to win, but they lost their starting center for the season on Monday which is a really disappointing setback for a team that was having such a good year.  This would be a nice road win if they’re able to pick it up.  Mississippi State is a long way from being a tournament team, but they do play well at home.

-KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  K State is in a bit of a tailspin having lost six of their last seven, and even thought hey are the road team in this one they still need to win it.  Texas is not even an NIT team, so if K State is a tournament team this is the kind of road game they need to be able to win.

-TEXAS TECH AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve).  Texas Tech has some big wins, but it’s safe to say they are home court heroes.  They need road wins if they want to land inside the bubble.  This wouldn’t just be a road win, but rather a road win on steroids.  Put pulling it off is much easier said than done.  West Virginia is on pace to end up as a protected seed.

-LIBERTY AT WINTHROP (Big South).  This could have been the UTR Game of the Day, but if it’s not just one game separates the top three teams in the Big South Conference, and Liberty and Winthrop are two of the three teams.  The first place finisher gets to host the conference tournament, so there is quite a bit at stake here.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton is an NCAA Tournament team, which means they need to take care of business at home against NIT caliber teams.  The Flyers have been playing well and should land safely inside the bubble if they’re able to hold serve.

-UT ARLINGTON AT GEORGIA STATE (Sun Belt).  UT Arlington does have a very nice win on their profile as well as a healthy RPI.  If they’re able to finish first in the Sun Belt, the selection committee will give them a serious look if they’re unable to win the conference tournament.

-COLORADO AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  Oregon is on pace to end up as a #2 seed and should be able to hold serve at home today.

-LSU AT ALABAMA (SEC).  It isn’t likely to happen, but I suppose it is possible.  If Alabama absolutely thunders down the stretch they have a chance of playing their way inside the bubble and making the field. Losing to a team BELOW Missouri in the standings will torpedo any such notion of at-large discussion.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  I’m starting to like Purdue’s chances of ending up as a protected seed more and more.  Michigan State should be safe for a bid, but a win like this would go a long way toward making it more of a certainty.

-FLORIDA STATE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  Pitt put together a pretty good resume out of conference, but has been abysmal in conference play.  This is another winnable game for the Seminoles, who are on pace to end up as a protected seed and depending on how strong they finish they could end up as a #2 seed.

-PACIFIC AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Gonzaga is the #1 team and shouldn’t have any trouble landing on the #1 line if they win out.  This game is practically a buy game.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT HOFSTRA (Colonial).  UNCW needs to win out in order to have any chance at all of earning an at-large bid.

-OLE MISS AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  Arkansas picked up a huge win earlier this week that, in my opinion, moved them safely inside the bubble.  But they still need to hold serve at home in games like this.

-KENTUCKY AT GEORGIA (SEC).  Kentucky has had a few hiccoughs this year, but is still a solid team that should end up as a protected seed.  Winning at Georgia is not the easiest thing to do, but it’s the kind of game that a protected seed should win more often than not.

-TCU AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve).  I think Iowa State has improved quite a bit and I’m starting to like their resume more and more.  TCU continues to remain on the fringe of the bubble, and one of the areas where they are lacking is road wins.  This would arguably be their biggest win of the year if they’re able to pick it up.

-SMU AT HOUSTON (American).  In my mind this is a huge game for SMU.  As good as they appear to be, their best win away from home is arguably Memphis, who is tough to beat at home, but is still just an NIT team.  Most of the teams on the #7 line or better will have multiple road wins against NCAA Tournament teams.  So, with that in mind, this is an important game because it would arguably be their best true road win of the year.  If they don’t get it then I could easily see the committee dinging them with their seed. Houston themselves is running out of chances for quality wins if they want to even be included in NCAA bubble discussions.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT MARSHALL (Conference USA).  If Middle Tennessee wins out through the regular season and avoids a loss in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament then I think their chances are reasonably decent to get an at-large.

-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Arizona has lost just one conference game and is currently being projected as a #2 seed.  Needless to say they are in great shape.

-OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve).  BEDLAM!!!!!  I love this rivalry!!  Although some years it’s better than others, and this is one of the years where it’s not.  Oklahoma State’s profile keeps getting better and better, they have a lot of momentum built up, and they should be able to pick up this rivalry win at home and add to it.

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Xavier is safely inside the bubble, but they certainly have room to improve their resume if they’re somehow able to get hot down the stretch.  Marquette is right on the bubble and could really use this game to help them land on the right side of it.  They have a couple of good wins, but have done little else outside of that.

-VIRGINIA AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Virginia has lost four of their last six, and are in danger of making it five out of seven as they face a red hot North Carolina team.  As well as UNC is playing, and as heavily backloaded as their schedule is, they actually have a path to a #1 seed if they can finish strong.  Virginia, despite the tailspin, still appears to be in reasonably good shape for a protected seed simply because of how brutal the schedule has been.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  South Carolina is coming off a loss, but is still in really good shape.  This would be a decent win for them if they’re able to pull it off.  Vandy has played well at home for most of the year.

-USC AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  This is a huge rivalry game between a USC team that appears to be on pace to land in the top half of the bracket, and a UCLA team that’s still in good position to get an at-large bid.  On paper it’s a quality win for whoever pulls it off.  Off paper it’s about bragging rights.

-SAINT MARY’S AT BYU (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s doesn’t get many chances at quality wins, but this would be a nice road win on their profile.  Don’t be surprised if BYU steps up and gives them a game.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes, Survival Board | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Feb 18th