For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Texas-Arlington and Georgia Southern – CLICK HERE.
Below is my personal projection for the Bracket through games of Sunday, February 19, 2017. I have also included my notes on the selections, and down below the bracket you will find comments from other staff members here at Hoops HD where they either praise or rip apart my selections.
CHAD’S NOTES
– For the first time in weeks, there is a change amongst the 1 seeds, as Baylor falls to 5th overall and the Tar Heels are now on the 1 line. I also moved Kansas over Gonzaga to #2 overall based on their huge win at Baylor (the Zags have nothing close to that good on their profile despite being undefeated).
– Not only is Duke on the 2 line now after yet another strong week (more notably by winning at Virginia than the way they beat Wake Forest), but they are #6 overall. I think there is actually a fairly large gap between the top 5 teams and the Blue Devils, but a 1 seed may actually be in the picture if they win every remaining game through the ACC Tournament championship.
– I also had the three Pac-12 schools (Arizona, Oregon and UCLA) back-to-back-to-back on my S-Curve, with Arizona still holding the edge. This is actually an important battle because the winner of it will be the only one of the three that gets to head to the West Regional.
– Virginia has been playing a killer schedule lately, but in the end you have to at least win a couple of those games. The Hoos are still among the top 16 teams — but they came in at #16 overall.
– I may get ripped for Florida being two lines below Kentucky, but I prefer UK’s overall profile and I still need to see a bit more out of Florida now that John Egbunu is out. If they keep winning without him, they will be right back up there very quickly. They have South Carolina and Arkansas at home, Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the road to finish the season, so the tests will be there.
– The bubble continues to shrink. I am fairly comfortable that everyone on my 10 line and higher belongs in the field. Michigan State on the 11 probably belongs in too, but they are a team that will now have to prove they can win without Eron Harris. Georgia Tech and Kansas State were my last two teams to avoid the First Four and both have resumes that make me want to vomit. Even then, they are better than the First Four teams (Seton Hall, TCU, Alabama and Pitt).
– Middle Tennessee was above my First Four far enough that I now believe they would get an at-large if they win out to the CUSA finals. UNC-Wilmington was in my S-Curve in the middle of the First Four teams, but that would not be enough to survive a bad loss in the CAA tournament. Texas-Arlington was my highest rated team below the First Four and with five regular season games left, including tonight’s Under the Radar Game of the Day (CLICK HERE), plus the Sun Belt tournament, has an outside shot at an at-large bid as well.
– I will be ripped for putting Alabama in. I will be ripped more for putting a Pitt team in that is 4-10 in ACC play. Yet, who else was available? The top four teams out, in order, were Texas Tech, Illinois State, Cal and Syracuse. The only other teams worth considering were Providence, Clemson, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Indiana, Rhode Island and Houston. I will take Pitt’s top wins over any of those. I will take an Alabama team that won at South Carolina and lacks any bad losses over any of those.
– I anticipate an argument being made, at least by John Stalica, that the team I should have chosen was Illinois State. I still hate their profile. Despite hating it, they only narrowly missed my field. The Redbirds’ biggest problem is a lack of quality wins and the only chance to pick one more up that they have left would be in the MVC tournament finals against Wichita State. Of course, if they win that game, they are in with an automatic bid. That being said, even though they cannot do anything to make their resume better, they will have four chances (two regular season games and the first two rounds of the MVC tournament) to make it worse. Just one more bad mark would be devastating. They have a shot still, but they better win the next four and hope that the rest of the bubble continues to implode around them.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-We need to send some sort of search party out for Chad’s mind, because he has clearly lost it!
-Okay, the number of things that I strongly disagree with is actually a low number. But the things I do disagree with are so over the top crazy that it offsets the fact that there aren’t that many of them. But, we’ll get to that later. Let’s start with some of his outlying picks that I may not entirely agree with, but that I don’t find to be too insane either.
-Alabama may appear to be a strange pick. But, I am actually able to swallow it. I gag on it as it’s going down, but I’m able to swallow it. They do have a very nice win at South Carolina, and they’ve pretty much held serve other than that. They do have a loss at Texas, but that loss came prior to Tevin Mack being suspended, and I think they’d be at least an NIT caliber team if Mack was still playing. Now, winning one big game and holding serve outside of that isn’t much of a profile, but it is at least something, and we’ve seen teams get in with profiles like that before. And, as he points out, a lot of the teams around them haven’t done much either.
-I don’t agree that Gonzaga should be any lower than the #1 overall. Having said that, they do not have the paper. So, if you want to make them the #1 overall you have to do it by means of “reasonable supposition.” Chad is a lawyer. He will almost never deploy that line of thinking. But, it is reasonable. Gonzaga hasn’t had as many tough tests as Kansas and Villanova, but they have had a few, and they’ve passed every one of them. I think they’ve done enough to demonstrate that they are the best team. They’ve beaten four teams away from home that will be wearing white in the Round of 64, and they haven’t lost to anyone.
-Well, maybe Chad does deploy “reasonable supposition” after all. Wisconsin is on his #3 line. I like this Badger team, but I’m having to use my imagination just to get them onto the #4 line as a protected seed. He has them all the way up on the #3 line despite their best win being at Minnesota, and their second best win being against Tennessee on a neutral floor, who isn’t even a tournament team. I know they have a home win against Michigan, but everyone who’s played Michigan at home (with one exception) has beaten Michigan, so I can’t really call that a “quality win.” If anything I now have an easier time making a case for Purdue, who has an equal conference record, but also has wins at Maryland and against Notre Dame. And at Michigan State. Oh yea, and also against Wisconsin. In fact putting Wisconsin that high isn’t “reasonable” at all. I’m not sure what it is.
-Chad now has Arkansas on his #9 line. I just want to say that I’m impressed with how Arkansas has played lately, and the way I remember it I’ve been rather impressed with them all season long while people like Chad were doubting them.
-If you go with results, and wins, and what’s on paper, then you like the Georgia Tech pick. I like the Georgia Tech pick, at least when compared to other teams that were left out. Winning games is what counts in conference standings. You advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament by winning the game. So, when I evaluate teams, I look at what games they’ve won and how hard those games were to win. Georgia Tech has won more games that were hard to win than most of the rest of the bubble. Their RPI could be better. Their power ratings are lousy. But, they have wins, and wins are what matters. It’s why you play the game according to….some former NFL coach (who’s name I honestly can’t remember, but the soundbyte is legendary. And correct). (It was Herm Edwards. – John S)
-Now let’s look at the pick that makes me think Chad might have lead in his house. Pittsburgh. Categorically speaking when a team is 4 games below .500 in league play they are not making it. It’s only happened once in the entire history of Planet Earth. Pitt is SIX games below .500!! Now, they did win at Maryland, but that was an anomaly. That is offset by losses to NC State and Duquesne. DUQUESNE!!! The best thing you can say about them is that they’ve lost to a lot of good teams. Well, there are many teams in the SWAC that did the same thing in November and December and we don’t see them on the list. When you compare them to, say, Syracuse, who is four-and-a-half games ahead of them in the standings, I can’t help but think they’re the better pick.
-I get why Chad doesn’t like Illinois State. They don’t have all those losses to good teams that Pitt has!!
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I’ll start at the 3-line since I don’t really take umbrage to what’s listed on the Top 2 lines. If you’re going to be this high like Kentucky is, I’d better see more quality wins than just North Carolina and South Carolina (at least in terms of first-ballot teams). I’d argue that both Florida State and West Virginia (even with recent hiccups) belong up here as opposed to UK and Wisconsin. The Badgers can wind up as high as a 3 if they win the Big Ten, but if I really had to argue for a B1G team up here, I’ll take Purdue for now.
– With Virginia only a couple of games above .500, I’m more tempted to have them as my top 5 seed for the time being. Sweeping Louisville helps, but splitting with Virginia Tech and losing to bubbilicious teams like Pitt and Syracuse makes it more difficult to justify a protected seed for now.
– For selfish reasons, I think USC is a seed line too low (even with a bloated record) and Dayton a seed line too high. Do a 3-way switch with Michigan and we’ll have a great rivalry in Greenville where Carolina fans can pick sides as to whether or not they’re Xavier fans or Dayton fans. Xavier fans are not quite as eager to claim the birthplace of aviation like Dayton fans are, so I for one recognize who is truly first in flight here. (End of Bill Waltonesque rant.)
– My two cents on Pittsburgh – recent wins against Florida State and Syracuse are nice, but I would have entertained a bubble pick like this 2 weeks later (as opposed to now when they’re 4-10). Couldn’t you at least have beaten Clemson at home and put them out of their misery once and for all? I’m holding Pitt responsible for all the fools who still think Clemson is an NCAA Tournament team.
– And yes, I do think Chad is rushing to exclude Illinois State from the field. I concede that the paper does not look as pretty, and I hate to acknowledge this, but we already know what teams like Georgia Tech, Pitt and Alabama are. If I were a fellow bubbler, I’d rather play a team like them (i.e. Tulsa or Vandy from last year) as opposed to Illinois State this year (or Wichita State from last year). I agree that an outright 2nd-place Illinois State team in the Valley would not be an at-large caliber team, but I strongly believe that a 1st-place finisher in the Valley (especially if they reach their championship game) deserves a First Four spot over other bubble teams.
– As far as auto-bid leagues go, I’d love to hear Chad’s rationale for South Dakota being picked over North Dakota State. Both teams split head-to-head, so is he anticipating that the Coyotes would win the Summit thanks to home-court advantage in the conference tournament?
REPLIES FROM CHAD
– I will let everything above stand with two exceptions. First, as to David’s point on Pittsburgh — my computer screen was not big enough to hold all their losses so the Duquesne game got cut off. I anticipate that my monitor is the same size as the real committee’s, so that loss simply does not count. But seriously, they were chosen not based on what they have done good, but based on everyone else just being even worse. They probably have to win 3 of their last 4 ACC games, and two of those are against North Carolina and Virginia, and pick up at least two ACC Tournament wins.
– Since John asked me about the Summit League, I do like NDSU’s overall profile slightly better, but (1) the conference tournament is in Sioux Falls and (2) the Bison have been playing absolutely awful the last few weeks including needing double overtime this past weekend to beat Western Illinois (ranked 295 at KenPom) at home. The Coyotes have won four straight including a win at North Dakota State and right now are my pick to win that conference tournament. I don’t think the Bison are playing well enough to even make the tourney finals.
– Actually, one more point. You both missed it!!! No comments at all on my South Region 6-11 game. Epic fails.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Feb 21st
NEWS AND NOTES
-For our latest Hoops HD Report, where we run through and analyze all the major conferences – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-Virginia’s frustrations continue. They’ve now lost six of eight, and although most of those aren’t even the least bit damaging, losing at home to a team that’s outside of the top 25 just isn’t something that a solid protected seed typically does. On the flip side, it was a great win for Miami FL who continues to play better and better and who’s NCAA Tournament resume keeps getting stronger and stronger.
-UT Arlington picked up a win at Georgia Southern. It was their 10th true road win of the year. Some of those road wins include Texas (who while bad is still 10-5 at home, and the win occurred at a time when Texas still had their best player on the team), Saint Mary’s (who’s only other home loss was to Gonzaga), Georgia State (who’s 8-3 at home), and Georgia Southern (who is 8-2 at home). That’s impressive. Those teams aren’t tournament teams, but beating a top fifty team at home who has a losing record on the road really isn’t any harder to do than winning at Georgia Southern, or Georgia State, or certainly Saint Mary’s. They also have a top 40 RPI and are in first place. Outright first place teams with top forty RPIs generally get in no matter what. Hmmm. Another team to keep an eye on. I just hope that the committee is.
-Iowa State picked up another nice road win at Texas Tech. Texas Tech is still within reach of the NCAA Tournament, but after last night’s loss they’re really going to have to stretch in order to reach it. Nothing against the Red Raiders, and I feel that Chris Beard has done a fantastic job in his first season, but given the choice I like UT Arlington better.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-PURDUE AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Purdue is looking more and more like the best team in the Big Ten, and this is a good chance for them to add another road win to an already impressive profile. If they hold serve they could end up as a protected seed.
-RHODE ISLAND AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten). Rhody pretty much needs to win out and hope for the best, but they’re at-large chances aren’t entirely dead yet. Just mostly dead.
-SOUTH CAROLINA AT FLORIDA (SEC). South Carolina is still in relatively good shape, but they have hit ai bit of a tailspin. Winning at Florida would certainly pull them out of it, but that’s much easier said than done. The Gators’s profile indicates that they are on the fringe of a protected seed, but they need to prove they can win without Egbunu, so it’s a big game for them as well.
-CLEMSON AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Clemson keeps playing well against good teams and coming up just short. Their NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t entirely extinguished, but every game for the rest of the season will have a pivotal feel. If they can win on the road against a Virginia Tech team that appears to be squarely in the field it will certainly help things.
-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Baylor is coming off a loss to Kansas that is more frustrating and heartbreaking than it is damaging. They don’t want to overlook this Sooners team, but this is a good chance for them to rebound with a winnable game.
-MONMOUTH AT FAIRFIELD (Metro Atlantic). I realize that no one is talking about Monmouth as if they were a bubble team, but as weak as the bubble is maybe we should be looking at some of the top teams from the UTR leagues. They’re 23-5 with a top 50 RPI, ten true road wins (and could make it 11 tonight), and have not lost since January 2nd. They’re still under consideration on our SURVIVAL BOARD. They may not be selected, but it’d be nuts to not at least look at them.
-GEORGE MASON AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is inside the bubble and will likely stay there so long as they hold serve in games like this. George Mason is one of the more improved teams in the conference, and although they’re not a tournament caliber team you can’t help but be impressed with what they’ve done and feel that their program is once again heading in the right direction.
-NORTHWESTERN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Northwestern lost the first meeting between these two in what was kind of a surprising result. In fact outside of their big win at Wisconsin they have been struggling recently, but they’re still relatively safe for a bid. Winning this game and adding another road win to their resume would certainly help, not to mention give them the bragging rights.
-NC STATE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Georgia Tech is squarely on the bubble so every game for them has a pivotal feel. They certainly don’t want to lose at home to a non-tournament team.
-EVANSVILLE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita State doesn’t have much in the way of quality wins, but they’re in the rankings and their power ratings are strong. If they win out through the regular season I can’t imagine them missing the NCAA Tournament.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Marquette can’t exactly skate to the NCAA Tournament, but as long as they hold serve they should be fine. That obviously means beating the Johnnies at home.
-KENTUCKY AT MISSOURI (SEC). No comment.
-INDIANA AT IOWA (Big Ten). Indiana is in awful shape right now, but if they can string together a strong finish, which is much easier said than done but still possible, they still have a chance of making the field. They’ve been awful on the road. A win tonight would at least give them another road win.