NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-Thursday night was a rather eventful night. UCLA came from 19 pts down against Oregon to pick up another signature win and strengthen their case for being a solid protected seed.
-Duke and North Carolina was another exciting game that was close all the way through before Duke finally opened it up in the final minute.
-Purdue picked up a nice road win at Indiana, which had a pivotal feel for it for the Hoosiers. They keep falling backwards and will fall outside the bubble if they don’t get things turned around.
-It was also the third straight night where we had a quadruple overtime game. Alabama won at South Carolina on Tuesday, Wyoming beat Fresno State on Wednesday, and Wofford beat Samford on Thursday.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
NOTE: I use the term “Hold Serve” a lot when writing up games. I’ve been asked by several people what I mean by that. It is a figure of speech, and it basically means beating the teams that you’re ahead of. In other words, if Hoops HD is projecting a team as a #7 seed, then holding serve and staying a #7 seed would mean beating the teams that are seeded worse or not in the field at all.
-TEXAS A&M AT FLORIDA (SEC). The Gators are on the brink of a protected seed and need to hold serve in games like this if they ultimately want to get it.
-MINNESOTA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Minney is in a bit of a tailspin but they did pick up a nice win earlier in the week and have what is perhaps their most winnable remaining road win tonight.
-NC STATE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Wake is outside the bubble, but they do have a pathway into the NCAA Tournament if they cam hold serve in games like this and put together a strong finish.
-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). I like this West Virginia profile and will be surprised if they don’t end up as a protected seed. K State is now inside the bubble and although they weren’t able to pick up a win against Kansas earlier this week they’re still relatively safe. Still, a win like this would give their profile another huge boost.
-SETON HALL AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Seton Hall is on the fringe of the bubble and really can’t afford to drop a game like this. The Johnnies are 5-7 in league play and have done much better than what any of us were expecting, but it’s still a bad loss for a team that’s trying to land safely inside the bubble.
-MARQUETTE AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Marquette’s profile is somewhat schizophrenic and their RPI is weak, but they do have some good wins and should be inside the bubble, especially if they can add another conference road win to their profile. Georgetown would need a strong sprint to the finish, but they do have enough good wins to where making the field is not completely out of reach despite being just 13-12.
-KENTUCKY AT ALABAMA (SEC). Kentucky has slipped somewhat, but they’re still in good shape to end up as a protected seed if they’re able to finish strong. Alabama just picked up a big win at South Carolina, and if they can follow that up with a win over Kentucky then the NCAA Tournament, which seemed completely out of reach just a few days ago, will suddenly be within reach.
-SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Syracuse has played their way onto the bubble and actually has a pretty solid looking profile. They’ve struggled with road wins, but they can add one to it today.
-CLEMSON AT DUKE (ACC). Clemson has lost as lot of close games and is currently outside the bubble. A win like this is not easy to pick up, but you get the sense that this is the kind of win they’ll need if they want to make the NCAAs.
-MIAMI FL AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Miami is on the bubble and Louisville appears to be a solid protected seed. A win for Louisville sustains their profile, and a win for Miami greatly improves theirs.
-TCU AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Baylor is on pace to get a #1 seed, and TCU is right on the bubble and trying to make the field. A road win at Baylor isn’t very probable, but if they were to pick it up it would be a huge difference maker.
-KANSAS AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Texas Tech has some big wins, but their overall profile isn’t quite there yet. A win against a Kansas team that’s fighting for the #1 line won’t be easy, but if they were to pick it up their profile would get a huge boost.
-CREIGHTON AT DEPAUL (Big East). Creighton has struggled since losing Mo Watson, but they do have one big win without him and if they continue to hold serve they should be fine.
-VILLANOVA AT XAVIER (Big East). Nova is one of the more battle tested teams in the country, and this is yet another tough showcase road game for them against a ranked team. Even if Nova loses they should still be on pace to end up as a #1 seed, and a win would further help cement it. Xavier picked up a big win at Creighton last week and can give their resume another big boost if they can pull this one off. In fact, a win for Xavier pulls them even with Villanova in the conference standings.
-GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Georgia is one of the most unlucky teams in the country. You can’t help but think they are just a couple of plays away from having a solid resume that would put them within reach of the tournament. Tennessee is right on the bubble and this is the kind of game they need to hold serve in if they truly are a tournament team.
-TEXAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma State has a few big wins and is definitely trending in the right direction, but they are still squarely on the bubble and every game has a pivotal feel to it. They’re at home against a non-tournament team and need to be able to take care of business.
-OHIO STATE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Ohio State still has a lot of work to do, but they are slowly inching toward the bubble and if they can pick up a road win like this it would be a huge step in the right direction. Maryland has lost two straight and is just trying to get things turned back around.
-UNC WILMINGTON AT ELON (Colonial). If UNCW wins out, but loses in the conference tournament, then their chances of making the field are probably less than fifty percent, but they’re not zero.
-BUTLER AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Butler’s profile is amazing, and they’ve started playing better on the road. Winning at Providence is no cakewalk, but if Butler is a protected seeded caliber team, which their profile indicates, then it’s the kind of game they are certainly capable of winning.
-WASHINGTON AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Utah needs to thunder down the stretch if they want any chance of making the field. It’s a long shot, but it’s not entirely out of reach.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). This isn’t the kind of game where a win helps out Georgia Tech, but it is the kind of game where a loss really breaks their kneecaps. They really need to hold serve in this one.
-IOWA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). We get the sense that Michigan State is right on the bubble and can’t really absorb a home loss to a non tournament team at the moment.
-FLORIDA STATE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). Notre Dame is in a bit of a tailspin, but is in really good shape. Florida State is coming off a really strong week and has a really strong profile that they can add to with yet another impressive road win if they’re able to pull this off.
-OKLAHOMA AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Iowa State is in good shape and should land inside the bubble so long as they hold serve the rest of the way, which means winning games like this.
-CHARLOTTE AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA). I think Middle Tennessee’s chances of earning an at-large bid are over fifty percent if they win out, but lose in the conference tournament. So, every game is a stakes game from here on out.
-SOUTH CAROLINA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). South Carolina is coming off a quadruple overtime thriller against Alabama, and they need to rebound from it because Mississippi State isn’t that good, but they’re good enough to beat teams when they’re at home if their opponents overlook them, and that would be a knock to South Carolina’s profile .
-DAVIDSON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU’s last two games have been incredible, and they’ve made the difference of them being inside the bubble or out of the field entirely at the moment. They’re at home today, and need to hold serve in this one.
-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Gonzaga is playing for a #1 seed. If they win this game, I don’t think there is anything that will keep them from getting it if they win out through the regular season, which you would expect them to do based on how dominant they have been. Saint Mary’s has a solid profile, but is looking to add what would be their biggest win of the season to it.
-ARKANSAS AT LSU (SEC). Arkansas is outside the bubble and needs to finish the season strongly if they want to go dancing. They certainly can’t afford a loss to an LSU team that is, quite frankly, absolutely pitiful.
-CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). Cal is right on the bubble, and as improbable as it is this is the kind of season defining win that would make the difference of them making the tournament or not if they’re able to pull it off. Arizona has a strong profile and is still in great shape and is just looking to hold serve.
-BRADLEY AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley). If Illinois State wins out the committee will look at them, but it’s not a slam dunk that they’ll actually select them.
-OREGON AT USC (Pac Twelve). USC is in good shape and with a game like this has more to gain from a win than they do to lose from a loss. Oregon is coming off a disappointing loss at UCLA where they blew a 19 point lead, but is still in good shape for a protected seed, and could even end up as high as the #2 line if they can finish strong. The one thing they could use is more road wins, and this is a winnable road game against a tournament caliber team.
