NEWS AND NOTES (SEASON RESET)
-So, it’s the day after the Super Bowl. That means that between now and April 3rd college basketball is the biggest sport in the country. We’ve been here since the first day of the season, and really since even before that, and we kind of like to reset things when conference play begins, and again on the day after the Super Bowl because it’s at those two periods where there is a spike in interest. If you’ve been with us since the beginning, then great! If you’ve been with us since the start of conference play, then great! If you’re just now finding us, then welcome!
Bracketology is one of the things that we do, and we are actually doing it in three different ways. We have Jon Teitel, who attempts to guess the actual Selection Committee, and over the past three years has been one of the most accurate at doing this. Last year he had an amazing 65 out of 68 seeded exactly correct or within one line of it. Most people brag if they get that many in the field correctly. He got that many, and actually had them seeded correctly. We also have a selection committee of our own where the staff collectively selects and seeds the teams. This isn’t an attempt to guess the real committee, but rather doing it the way we would do it if we were in charge. And, we actually now have individuals that post their own brackets and open it up to criticism. CLICK HERE for our BRACKETOLOGY PAGE, or just go to the top of the screen.
We also have our own Power Rating, or Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings as we call it, that attempts to measure what the selection committee will do. The way it works is…well…I really don’t know how it works. Joby Fortson does it, and I like it as much as any of the other ones because it has actually predicted some of the strange selections that the committee has made in recent years. You can look at that BY CLICKING HERE
-There are also daily write-ups of all of that day’s action where we explain why a game is important, as well as a recap of the day before.
-We also have three weekly video podcasts that we record each week. There’s the Hoops HD Report, which is the main show that looks at all of the power conferences/multi-bid conferences as well as any of other teams that are inside the bubble, we do Under the Radar, which covers all of the other leagues, and we have a Bracket Rundown Podcast where we build an NCAA Tournament bracket and discuss all the teams as we do it.
There is also an Under the Radar Game of the Day that Chad Sherwood writes up. CLICK HERE for today’s game
-Again, if you’re just tuning in you’ve missed quite a bit of excitement. Some of the big storylines are Baylor, who was unranked and barely receiving votes when the season began, and has now been ranked as high as #1 and in line to get a #1 seed. Florida State is also high in the rankings after starting off unranked.
-Northwestern, who has never made the NCAA Tournament, is now in prime position to make it, and that’s been one of the bigger and more exciting stories of the season.
-UConn, who started off ranked in the teens, is now nowhere to be found and is probably the biggest surprise on the other end of the spectrum. Syracuse, Texas, and Rhode Island have also been busts.
-Duke has dealt with injuries, a star player who keeps tripping people, a head coach who needed to miss some time due to back surgery, and has lost some games you’d expect them to win, but just now appears to be turning it back around.
-Gonzaga is your #1 team. I don’t know if I think they are the best team in the nation, but I do think they are among the top four. They only have one ranked team remaining on their schedule prior to the conference tournament, so it’s possible that they’ll run the table and finish not just ranked #1, but undefeated as well.
-If you are just now putting college basketball on your front burner, then I really hope that you did so before Saturday. It was one of the craziest days of college basketball that I can remember, and that’s not hyperbole. It was fantastic! We will be recording our Hoops HD Report tonight, so be sure and look out for that because we’ll get you all caught up.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). This is a match-up between two likely protected seeds. Virginia is coming off a rather surprising loss (at least to me) against Syracuse over the weekend, but they flattened Louisville at Louisville when they played earlier in the year. This has been a rough match-up for the Cardinals in recent years and tonight may not be any different.
-ALBANY AT NEW HAMPSHIRE (America East). The Team of the People!!!! They’re fighting to finish in the top half of the America East standings and host a conference tournament game.
-KANSAS AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). The first meeting between these two was a thriller with Kansas needing overtime to win at home in a finish that was somewhat controversial. K State was a fringe bubble team, but they’re coming off the biggest win of the season, and will have a huge head of steam when it comes to the momentum they have. It’s a rivalry game between a Kansas team that’s fighting for a spot on the #1 line and a K State team that’s trying to drastically improve their resume and win the bragging rights. For now.
Bracket Projection – Monday, February 6
Yesterday, our panelist Jon Teitel unveiled his weekly bracket based on what he believes the Selection Committee will pick through yesterday’s games. Today, our panelist John Stalica unveils his bracket based on where he believes all the teams currently stand. Here is the bracket below:
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– Teams like Florida State, Arizona and North Carolina were also considered for the top line, but at the end of the day I still believe that Nova, Gonzaga, Kansas and Baylor have enough quality in their profile to remain on the top line through a very turbulent week. The Seminoles certainly have the quality wins that scream 1-seed, but 3 of their 4 losses are against teams not in this field. Still, with 8 wins against likely NCAA Tournament teams and 5 other wins against possible NCAA Tournament teams, they are my top 2-seed.
– Butler is still an interesting team to place if you consider the above criteria – they also have 8 wins against potential NCAA Tournament teams and 6 wins against teams that also have serious postseason aspirations. However, of their 3 losses against non-NCAA teams, 2 of them (Indiana State and St. John’s) preclude them from getting any higher this week. Losing their last 2 games at home is another danger sign, especially with trips to Marquette, Villanova, and Xavier still on the horizon.
– Both Wisconsin and UCLA were #16 and #17 on my seed list, respectively. The Badgers have a better record in a better league against better competition (top-to-bottom), and UCLA’s signature win is starting to fade thanks to Kentucky’s slide.
– And how about Kentucky being below a protected seed? I think Kentucky’s hiccup is only temporary, but they were potentially looking at a 4-game losing streak had they lost to Georgia at home. They should easily handle LSU at home, but they’re entering another dangerous 3-game stretch at Alabama, at home against Tennessee and at Georgia. No real opportunity to bolster the profile, but plenty of chances to ding it.
– While Creighton is all over the place after the Mo Watson injury, Xavier has won a pair of close ones (including a win at Creighton) after Sumner’s injury and suddenly find themselves in 2nd place in the Big East. Their next 5 games give them a chance to climb back up – a homestand against DePaul and Villanova and then a 3-game roadie at Providence and 2 bubble teams (Marquette and Seton Hall).
– I expect my most controversial pick by far to be the Wichita State pick. Their resume doesn’t in and of itself scream a 9-seed, but they have really caught fire since starting play in the Missouri Valley. They destroyed Illinois State at home and it would take a collapse for me to think that they can’t run the table the rest of the regular season. We joke about “not wanting to play X team in March”, but I’d much rather be paired up with an Arkansas or Dayton team than I would a Wichita State team.
– California would be my last team in the field, but bracketing rules bumped them up to an 11 and Michigan down to a 12 because the placement of South Carolina doesn’t allow for a potential 1st-round game against either Michigan or Tennessee.
– Chad mentioned Alabama as another team he’s added to his board that has an outside shot at getting enough quality wins to make the field. I propose the Iowa Hawkeyes – they have a lot of work to do, but all of their remaining opponents are in the Top 100 of the RPI. Suppose they get 2 road wins out of a group including Minnesota, Michigan State, Maryland and Wisconsin AND win their 3 remaining home games against Illinois, Indiana and Penn State. They are the Big 10’s equivalent of Syracuse this season.
– Other at-large teams considered: Illinois State, Texas Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, Memphis and Utah. When Syracuse can finally win an ACC road game of note, I’ll consider them.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I don’t have too many complaints about John’s protected seeds (seed lines 1-4) and I completely agree with his decision to leave Kansas and Baylor on the 1 line. My biggest change would be to put Florida and Kentucky up there, likely in place of Purdue and Cincinnati. I am not ready to write off Kentucky entirely and I think Florida’s power rating numbers are so good that they need to be protected seed (not to mention what they did to UK on Saturday). I also would have Oregon on the 2 line — though I may be giving too much credit to them for what they did to Arizona.
– John is right that he is insane in his seeding of Wichita State. They have ONE (yes ONE) top 100 win and it was over an Illinois State team that will not be getting an at-large bid (the Redbirds may still belong Under Consideration but they will have no more chances for a statement win until the MVC finals — and if they win that game they are in anyhow). I can live with them being above the First Four teams, especially with their power ratings, but the 9 line is 2 lines too high.
– I hate to do this. I really hate to do this. Kansas State is too low in John’s bracket. It pains me to argue for Bruce Weber’s team, but I think they are closer to wearing white in the first round after the win at Baylor then to playing in Dayton. I would have them on the 9 line.
– I do not understand at all why Michigan is in this field. Georgia Tech has a better resume. Rhode Island has a better resume. Texas Tech has a better resume. Clemson, Georgetown and Syracuse all might even be better. The Wolverines have only two wins away from home, both on neutral courts, against SMU and Marquette. Their only home win against a team in this field is Indiana. So in other words, no road wins and no wins over anyone above the 7 line. That is not a tournament team. In fact, John says he will not consider Syracuse until they win an ACC road game of note. Yet he put Michigan in without a Big Ten (or any) road win of note. Make up your damn mind!!!
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I think John nailed the #1 seeds. I know we saw some carnage over the weekend with two of the four losing at home to unranked teams, but at the end of the day it is one game out of thirty, and all of the rest of the games those teams have played still add up to being more than anyone who isn’t on his #1 line.
-I’m not as big on Cincinnati. The record is bloated, but that is the only earmark that they’re meeting when it comes to being a protected seed. Protected seeds typically have multiple wins against teams in the top half of the bracket, and manage to get some of those away from home. Cincinnati will not have that. Not only that, but I don’t think they look as good on the court as any of the teams he has on his #5 line, or for that matter even some of them on the #6 line. They’re running roughshod over a league that has an SMU team that will be inside the bubble, a couple of NIT teams, and that’s it. And, they just didn’t have the big wins out of conference they need to end up as a protected seed. I will now sit back and watch the real selection committee give them a protected seed.
-I disagree with Wichita State on the #9 line, but having said that it isn’t entirely insane. Let’s just say that if this were debate class and I was asked to make that argument, I could. They have an abundance of road wins against teams that, while not tournament teams, still typically play well at home. And…well….that’s really it. The paper doesn’t support this, but when I look at John’s #10 line, I believe Wichita State to be better on the court than any of those teams. Arkansas just lost at Missouri for crissake, and Dayton has had to sweat out a few games, and Miami and Seton Hall have lost more big games than they’ve won. They all have better paper than Wichita, but if Wichita were to meet any of them on equal terms I’d go with the Shockers.
-Middle Tennessee on the #11 line seems about right. Right on the fringe of the bubble and they still have a chance if they win out, but only a chance and not an assurance.
-Chad already discussed Michigan, and I agree with him. That’s a crazy selection.