Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES

-Yesterday sure wasn’t lacking in excitement.  Arizona picked up a huge road win at UCLA in what was one of the biggest games of the day, and what is now probably one of the biggest true road wins of the season that any team has.  I don’t see how you can’t think of Arizona as being a solid protected seed now.

-Baylor got the win at TCU, but it wasn’t easy.  It was not until the final minute that they finally ran away from them.  TCU has lost two straight, both were close games that would have been considered good wins had they picked them up.

-Marquette went into Creighton and got the win.  By all accounts Creighton will struggle down the stretch without Maurice Watson.

-West Virginia lost their second straight game to Kansas State, who picked up what is easily their biggest win of the year.

-North Carolina beat Boston College, but they had to sweat a lot more than what most were expecting.

-Florida State sprinted ahead of Louisville by jumping out to a 14-0 lead, but Louisville came back and made it close all throughout the second half.  FSU got the win, but Louisville still played one of their better games of the season so far minus the first couple of minutes.

-Butler got the win at DePaul.  By one point.  In overtime.  A win is a win, but….geez.  That’s cutting it kinda close against a team that they should have clobbered.

-Wisconsin got a really nice road win against Minnesota.  I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it.  I really like this Wisconsin team.

-Florida was upset by Vanderbilt at home in what was one of the bigger surprises of the day.  It was Florida’s first home loss of the season.

-Oklahoma fell in double overtime to Iowa State, and gave up leads both at the end of regulation and at the end of the first overtime.  Had they gotten this win I think they would have been on a pace to actually build a very strong profile by the end of the year.  I suppose they still could, but this does slow their momentum somewhat.

-Oklahoma State finally got their first Big Twelve win, and did so in very surprising and impressive fashion by blowing out Texas Tech on the road.

-Utah got another decisive road win, and they continue to build their profile.  Lee Delvecchio continues to be unimpressed with Lorenzo Romar.  @HoopsHD

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SAINT JOHN’S AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall is still on the right side of the bubble, but they need to pull themselves out of a three game losing streak and this is perhaps one of their most winnable remaining games.

-NORTHWESTERN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  This would be another nice road win for a Northwestern team that’s getting closer and closer to making the NCAA Tournament for the very first time.

-SAINT LOUIS AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton will land on the right side of the bubble if they’re able to run away from the rest of the league.  The good news is that this is a very winnable game.  The bad news is that it’s so winnable that it’s virtually a buy game and if by chance they don’t win it Dayton will be absolutely sunk.

-LA SALLE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  La Salle has a few big warts on their profile, but overall I think I actually like it better than VCU’s, and I think that their team is better than VCU’s as well.  They’re on the road today, so it’s a huge challenge, but if La Salle does get the win they will be 8-1 in their last nine games, and have road wins against both VCU and Rhody.  The loss to Texas Southern aside, this would actually be a very good La Salle profile if they manage to win this.

-GEORGETOWN AT XAVIER (Big East).  Xavier feels like they’re in a tailspin, and for that reason it is very important that they pick up this win at home, but in reality their “tailspin” came in three straight losses, two of which were close games, and two of which were on the road, to top fifteen teams.  So, while they missed some chances to pick up good wins, they didn’t exactly hit the skids and pick up bad losses either.  They continue to hover around the #6-#7 seed range in our projections, which still makes them a first ballot team.

-UCF AT MEMPHIS (American East).  Both teams’ chances of an at-large bid are barely flickering, but I do suppose it’s possible that the committee will look at one or both of them if they really kick it into gear.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT CLEMSON (ACC).  Clemson has lost five straight, but all were to very strong teams.  Nevertheless they desperately need to pick up this win at home.  Virginia Tech is having a good year, but could use a few more road wins themselves.

-ARIZONA STATE AT USC (Pac Twelve).  This is a winnable home game that USC kind of needs to pick up considering that they’ve lost three of their last four.

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-It was a very chalky Thursday and Friday with almost nothing happening that was unexpected.  This Saturday appears to be lacking in showcase games, but I’ve been doing this at different places and in different formats for many years, and as odd as it sounds, the Saturdays that look like a bunch of blah going in oftentimes turn out to be the craziest days.  So today may end up being far more exciting than what we expect.

A PUPPET’S PREDICTION

-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma is fresh off their upset win at West Virginia, and don’t look now, but they’re actually starting to kick it in gear a bit.  They’ve won two straight, both against likely tournament teams, and prior to that they went into Kansas and actually played them rather tough and managed to take a lead into the second half.  This is a winnable game for them today, as is their next game against Texas.  If they get to 10-9 when they host Florida, they’ve got a shot at making a charge at the bubble.  It happens every year.  We saw Wisconsin do it last year.  Could Oklahoma be a team that thunders down the stretch after struggling for the first half of the season??  THE PUPPET IS CALLING IT!!  THE SOONERS WILL DANCE!!  

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VANDERBILT AT FLORIDA (SEC).  Florida is a solid first ballot team as long as they hold serve the rest of the way, which means winning home games against teams with losing records.

-GEORGIA AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Georgia is trying to string together the wins they need to make a run at the bubble.  This is not so much a win they need, but rather a loss they cannot have.

-NEBRASKA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Nebraska was flirting with the tournament for about a week, and I suppose it’s still possible for them to make it, but it will take a huge finish to the season.

-PENN STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Penn State has a lot of work to do, and missed out on what would have been a nice win against Indiana the other night, but if they pick up this win it would be a huge boost to their NCAA Tournament resume.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  BC is much better this year, but knocking off North Carolina is probably still miles beyond their capabilities.

-SYRACUSE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  There are times Syracuse plays like a tournament caliber team, and other times where they are atrociously bad.  Even when they’re at their best, they’re still not as good as Notre Dame is at home.

-PROVIDENCE AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Nova has looked like a #1 seed all season long, and I don’t expect that to change today, but even if they do drop the game they’re still very likely to end up on the #1 line.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  Kansas has looked like one of the best teams in the country all year long, and perhaps they are the best team in the country.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble at home against a Texas team that has played well in a lot of games, but ultimately won very few of them.

-LOUISVILLE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  It’s a showcase game between two likely protected seeds.  If Louisville were to pull this off it’d be the best win on their profile up to this point.  They’ve beaten some good teams, but not in true road games.

-WAKE FOREST AT NC STATE (ACC).  I don’t think either of these teams will end up in the discussion, but some at Hoops HD like them, so we’ll go ahead and highlight it.

-GEORGIA TECH AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Georgia Tech just dropped a thriller against Virginia Tech, and had they won that I would be saying their profile was lookling like that of an NCAA Tournament team.  I’ll say the same thing if they can find a way to win this one, but that’s much easier said than done.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma State is still winless in conference play, and given how well Texas Tech has played at home this season that could very easily continue.  Texas Tech is probably inside the bubble right now, and will stay there so long as they hold serve in games like this.

-BUTLER AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Butler hasn’t been the best road team this year, but they shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up.

-ILLINOIS AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  I fell both these teams are currently on the outside looking in, so both need to come into this with a sense of urgency.

-MARQUETTE AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Creighton was having a dream season before losing Maurice Watson Jr. to a torn ACL in their last game.  It will be interesting to see how they do in their first game without him against a Marquette team that’s looking for a big win to land them inside the bubble. Marquette blew chances to win at Seton Hall and Butler, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they win in Omaha today.

-INDIANA STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita State’s profile is very weak, but I still feel their team is good enough to win out and that the committee will strongly look at them, and likely take them, if they do.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  The best way I can describe both teams is that I do not think either of their profiles match their ceiling of potential.  It’s a big game between two teams that could both end up better than what they currently are.

-ARIZONA AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  This may be the biggest showcase game of the year in the Pac Twelve.  I still think of UCLA as being a #1 seed, but they need to be able to win a game like this in order to get it.

-CINCINNATI AT TULANE (AAC).  Cincinnati is clearly the class of this conference and actually has a shot at running the table.  I don’t expect them to get much of a challenge from Tulane despite them being the road team.

-DREXEL AT UNC WILMINGTON (Colonial).  UNC Wilmington won what I believe was their toughest remaining game last night at Charleston.  They are good enough to run the table, and if they do they should make the NCAA Tournament regardless of what they do in the conference tournament.

-WISCONSIN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  I really like this Wisconsin team, and have been very surprised by how good Minnesota is despite them losing a few games recently.  This is a match-up between two good teams and a chance to add a nice quality win to the resume.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  South Carolina just picked up a nice win against Florida, but as good as they are winning on the road against a team that could end up on the #1 line will be no easy task.  If they do pull it off, they’ll be safely inside the bubble.

-STANFORD AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  Oregon is getting better and better as the season goes along, and I’m not expecting them to have too much trouble at home in this one.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Kansas State has had some incredibly frustrating losses against really good teams that, had they won, they wouldn’t just be inside the bubble but probably in on the first ballot.  West Virginia is coming off a surprising home loss, but as good as they are they haven’t always been the best road team.  All those variables make this one interesting.

-HOUSTON AT SMU (American).  Houston lost a heartbreaker the other night against Memphis, and the door for them to make the field is closing.  If they can pull of the upset in this one it will at least remain ajar for a little longer.

-FRESNO STATE AT NEVADA (Mountain West).  We keep saying that if Nevada wins out they’ll be on the bubble and the committee will look at them.  We will keep saying that until they lose.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA).  Like we always say, Middle is inside the bubble and I think they’ll remain there if they run the table in the regular season.

-UTAH AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Utah still has work to do, but they appear to be getting better as the season goes along and have another winnable conference road game today.

-PORTLAND AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  This is  a conference game that will feel a lot like a buy game.  Gonzaga is a likely #1 seed, and Portland will likely miss the CIT.

-BAYLOR AT TCU (Big Twelve).  HUGE game tonight!  TCU played a great game at Texas Tech earlier this week.  Despite the loss, they showed (or at least they showed me) that they are capable of playing well in games that are tough to win.  Tonight they’re at home against a highly ranked team and if they can pull off the upset it will make them something that they haven’t been in decades.  It will make them nationally relevant.

-MIAMI FL AT DUKE (ACC).  I haven’t been all that impressed with Miami this season, but they are close enough to the bubble to where a win in a game like this could change the complexion of their profile and land them in the field.

-LSU AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  I’m still not a believer in Arkansas, but as long as they hold serve in games like this they will continue to hover around the bubble.

-UMKC AT NEW MEXCIO STATE (WAC).  I think New Mexico State can and will win out, and if that happens the committee should at least look at them if they lose in the conference tournament.

-CALIFORNIA AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  Cal needs some good wins if they want to get the attention of the committee.  Winning at Oregon State would not qualify as a good win, so that makes this a game they can’t really afford to lose.

-PEPPERDINE AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s will safely make the field just as long as they hold serve.

NEWS AND NOTES

CLICK HERE for our latest Under the Radar Video Podcast

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between UNC Wilmington and Charleston, which is actually one of the more important overall games of the day seeing as how UNCW is looking like they can get an at-large bid – CLICK HERE

-Last night was crazy and exciting!  There was so much going on at once that it was hard to keep up with.

-Oklahoma, who is young, but has also showed signs of improvement and promise for the future, definitely showed that in waves last night when they picked up a win at West Virginia.  It was probably the biggest upset of the season so far.  One has to admire how difficult it is to win a game like that, but in terms of them being such a young team you have to admire their mental toughness when you look at how they won.  They had a chance to win the game in regulation, but a missed freethrow sent it to overtime.  They fell behind in the overtime, but were still able to fight their way back into it and get the win despite all the momentum being against them.  What a great moment for Oklahoma’s season, and perhaps a strong foundation for the future as this team continues to grow.  As of now their top player is a senior, but all other key players are likely to return next year.

-Notre Dame at Florida State was another exciting game.  It was the first conference loss for the Irish, and had they won it we’d probably be discussing them for the #2 line, but there is no damage or shame in losing it.  If anything I’m still really impressed with how well they played.

-South Carolina got a much needed and stabilizing win at home against Florida in a low scoring affair.  The Gamecocks weren’t in any real danger, but the win did help shore things up for them.

-Indiana got a win at Penn State that they needed, or perhaps to put it another way didn’t need to lose.  It looked like the Hoosiers were running away from them, but Penn State came back and it took a last second shot for IU to pull off the road win.  They’ve won three of their last four Big Ten games since losing their first two.

-VCU’s not very impressive profile coming into yesterday looks even less impressive now.  They lost at Fordham in overtime, and I think that might be a game that really sinks them.  There is almost nothing of quality on their profile, and the bad outweighs the good.  On top of that, they really haven’t even looked that good for much of the season.

-TCU lost at Texas Tech, but I must admit to being very impressed with the Horned Frogs last night.  It is not easy to win at Texas Tech, and TCU fell behind big early, but kept their poise and came back to make it a close game all throughout the second half that they had a chance to win.  TCU’s fluff OOC schedule did them no favors as far as strengthening their paper, but they do appear to be good enough to get the wins they need to land inside the bubble.  Last night certainly would have helped, but the loss certainly didn’t hurt either.

-Wake Forest blew out Miami FL.  I’m not sure if that’s more good for Wake, or more bad for Miami.  Perhaps it’s both.

-Nebraska lost at home on a virtual last second shot to Ohio State.  Ohio State needed that win and they need a lot more like that.  Nebraska, on the other hand, didn’t need that loss at all.

-Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech was another thrilling game between two teams that needed to build their profile.  I was very impressed with the Yellow Jackets, and now must admit that our resident statistician Joby Fortson may have been on to something when talking about how good they were.  They had a shot at the buzzer that would have tied the game against a VA Tech team that is very tough to beat at home.  Georgia Tech has a solid profile and they’re a few big wins away from being inside the bubble.  Furthermore, they’ve shown that they’re good enough to be capable of picking up those wins.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MARYLAND AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Maryland is out to a very impressive 16-2 record and faces an Iowa team that’s nowhere near the tournament picture, but that has been tough at home, so it’s likely that the Terps will be tested.

-UCONN AT SMU (American).  SMU will safely land in the field so long as they continue to hold serve.  That would of course mean beating a UConn team that’s had a really bad year so far.

-DAVIDSON AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten).  La Salle is a LOONG way from the bubble, but believe it or not they are close to the top of the Atlantic Ten, and if they REALLY kick it into gear and finish strong the committee will likely take a serious look at them.

-RICHMOND AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Richmond struggled out of conference, but is a perfect 5-0 in the A10.  This is definitely the toughest league game they’ve played all year, and it’s a game that Dayton really can’t afford to trip up in.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT FIU (Conference USA).  It’s the same write up for middle for every game.  They’re good enough to run the table, and if they do they’ll make the NCAAs regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.

-CLEMSON AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  I still like Clemson’s team and profile, but they’ve lost their last four games.  All were close hard battles against good teams, but to be just 1-4 in league play and to not have picked up at least one decent win in that stretch is a bit of a setback.  Tonight will be another very difficult game to win against a Louisville team that appears destined to end up as a protected seed.

-CALIFORNIA AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  Cal has an abundance of wins in home buy games, and although that’s not all they have, that is mostly what they have.  If they can pick up this win it will completely change the complexion of their profile.

-ARIZONA AT USC (Pac Twelve).  Arizona is having a fantastic year, but this will be one of their tougher road tests.  It comes against a USC team that is good and is still relatively safe, but that also will likely have a sense of urgency coming into this game.

-MEMPHIS AT HOUSTON (American).  Houston really needs to thunder down the stretch in order to land inside the bubble.  They’re good, and they’re much improved, but as far as being NCAA Tournament good they’re running out of strikes.

-UNC ASHEVILLE AT WINTHROP (Big South).  Neither team is inside the bubble, but both are tied for first place in the Big South and with the first place team getting to host the conference tournament this is a huge game.

-ARIZONA STATE AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  UCLA shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up and staying on pace to earn a #1 seed.  They just don’t want to be looking ahead to this weekend.

-PACIFIC AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  SMC is coming off the big loss to Gonzaga, but they still appear to be a first ballot team and will remain that way so long as they hold serve.

-GONZAGA AT SANTA CLARA (West Coast).  Gonzaga is the last unbeaten team and they are certainly good enough to win out.  If they do, the real selection committee will likely give them a #1 seed.  I’m not so sure the Hoops HD committee will, but the real committee probably will.