John’s Bracket Projection – Monday, January 16

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Vermont and New Hampshire – CLICK HERE.

For David Griggs’ News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE.

For Jon Teitel’s weekly bracket projection as he tries to guess the Selection Committee – CLICK HERE.  Also check out Jon as a guest on the Bracketology.fm podcast.  CLICK HERE.

As we begin the holiday commemorating Martin Luther King, Jr., we are now at the halfway point of the college basketball season. Every conference has also begun conference play, so the schedules are not consisting solely of PBS pledge-drive buy games anymore.

JOHN’S NOTES

With Baylor finally getting their first loss of the year, Villanova resumes the post of overall #1 seed. It was a close choice between Nova and Baylor, but I do like the Wildcats’ 9-1 record away from home (as opposed to Baylor’s 5-1). Kansas only has 3 wins against teams I would consider to be in the field this week (Duke, TCU and UNC-Asheville).

For all the grief we give Notre Dame about their out-of-conference schedule, they have more than made up for it in the ACC. They were the first team to win at Virginia Tech, and when you add that to a profile that includes wins at Miami, at Pitt and at home against Clemson and Louisville, they are also rapidly climbing the ladder and competing for a #1 seed themselves. They WOULD be a #1 had they been able to beat either Purdue or Villanova.

Duke did have a rough road this week, but their road becomes a little more manageable in the upcoming weeks. 5 of their next 7 games are at home, and they will have a week to think about the Miami game at Cameron.

Marquette was actually my last team in my field, but they play the top First Four team (Illinois) because of potential bracket conflicts.

I also want to highlight a few under-the-radar teams that make their debut into my field this week. Illinois State is now 6-0 in the Missouri Valley and have won the first leg against Wichita State to earn their way into the field. The Horizon League was tougher to choose. I still think Valpo has the best overall profile, even though they lost at home to Oakland and Green Bay actually having the lead in the standings. The Phoenix have not yet played Valpo or Oakland, and the Golden Grizzlies are outside my field for the time being after losing at home to a Centenary candidate in the Detroit Titans.

I’ve mentioned them a few times in UTR podcasts, and I would like to welcome the UNC-Greensboro Spartans to the field as the co-leader of the SoCon. They already beat Chattanooga earlier this season, and with a win at East Tennessee State last week, they are now 2-0 against the Mocs and Bucs. The Summit was also harder to choose – both Fort Wayne and North Dakota State lost, so I’ll stick with the Mastodons for now. They are on thin ice, however.

Georgia Southern is another team we haven’t really discussed much on UTR, but they are perfect in the Sun Belt Conference so far and are 2 games up on expected contenders Arkansas State and UT-Arlington. The Eagles have 6 losses out-of-conference, but 5 of them were against teams like NC State, Akron, Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Winthrop. Only the loss at Mercer would really be an eyesore.

As for other teams considered, they are: California, Houston, Nebraska, Memphis, Utah, Texas Tech, UCF, NC State, Penn State, Kansas State, La Salle, Richmond and Georgia Tech.

(games played through Sunday, January 15)

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-I don’t get the Arkansas love.  They have 14 wins, and outside of home buy wins and conference games that really aren’t that hard to win, they have two wins of note, and that’s at Tennessee and at home against Houston.  That’s really really their entire profile other than avoiding bad losses.

-Gonzaga is interesting.  They’re the only unbeaten team, and I think they’ve got a great chance of winning out.  If that happens I think the real committee will give them a #1 seed, but I don’t think they’ll deserve it.  They’ll have a great profile, but they won’t have a true road win against a protected seed, which is kind of my personal starting point when assessing whether or not a team is worthy of a #1 seed.  John has them on the #2 line.  Right now, I think that’s where I belong, and I personally don’t foresee myself ever thinking they belong any higher than that.  I think they’ll end up higher than that, but I won’t agree with it.

-I’m warming up to TCU as a potential tournament team, but still don’t believe they’re so far inside the bubble that they’re on the #9 line.

-I like Notre Dame as a protected seed, but not as high as the #2 line.  They do have a good profile with their only losses being to Purdue and Villanova, but they also don’t have a win of any kind against a protected seed.  Having said that, their win at Virginia Tech was VERY impressive this weekend.  Impressive enough for me to think they should be on the #3 or #4 line, but not as high as the #2 line. (Louisville is a protected seed, Puppet. – JS)

CHAD’S COMMENTS

– I would echo most of David’s criticisms and just have a few to add.  My first one has to do with the Pac-12.  Oregon as a 5 and Arizona as a 6 are crimes.  These teams should probably both be protected seeds, if not both on the 5 line at worst. (It was close, but Florida was my last #4 and Oregon my first #5. – JS)

– I also think having Greensboro in as the SoCon rep is pointless if you are going to argue that you are taking the best profile in the conference (as John did by choosing Valpo over Oakland in the Horizon).  I agree with taking the top profile, but it is either East Tennessee State or Chattanooga.  I also would question the choice of Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt — again, the best overall profile still belongs to Texas-Arlington despite two league losses so far.

– I like Illinois State.  I do not like them, based on a home win over Wichita State only, better than UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee.  John clearly is smoking Redbird Brand crack cocaine.

– Wichita State barely belongs under consideration.  They do not belong in this field.  GET THEM OUT. (Not my job. Tell that to Cal, Houston and Tim Miles instead. – JS)

Posted in Bracketology, CBB, Commentary | Comments Off on John’s Bracket Projection – Monday, January 16

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Vermont at New Hampshire

Vermont at New Hampshire, 1:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For today’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games, CLICK HERE.

The battle for the America East championship is on in full force this afternoon as all State offices have been closed and a national holiday declared for the first of two regular season matchups between the Vermont Catamounts and the Team of the People, the New Hampshire Wildcats.  The host Wildcats enter play today with an overall record of 11-6 and a conference record of 2-1, just one game behind Vermont and Stony Brook in the loss column for first place.  Since losing their conference opener against Stony Brook, UNH has won at Albany and picked up a win at home against Binghamton.  Star player Tanner Leissner had one of his roughest games of his career against the Bearcats last time out, only scoring 2 points.  However, his teammates were able to pick up the slack, led by 23 from Daniel Dion and a double-double from Iba Camara.  With efforts like that today, the Wildcats have a great shot to hand Vermont their first league loss of the season and serve notice that they do intend to contend for the regular season championship.

Vermont enters play today at 14-5 overall and 4-0 in early conference play including a solid home win last time out against a much-improved UMBC team.  Trae Bell-Haynes led the team in scoring in that win, dropping 20 points.  Kurt Steidl added 11 points and 9 rebounds, narrowly missing the double-double.  The Catamounts enter today’s game with the top RPI, KenPom and Sagarin ratings in the conference, and have a chance, if they can run through the league during the regular season, to land a respectable seed in the NCAA Tournament.  However, that is much easier said than done and the New Hampshire Wildcats should be ready for them today.

#GoDancingOrDie

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Jan 16th

NEWS AND NOTES

For Jon Teitel’s latest Bracket Projections – CLICK HERE

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East).  Butler continues to impress and looks like they could end up as a protected seed.  Marquette is squarely on the bubble, and if they were to a win like this would be a season defining win that would probably put them safely inside the bubble.

-VERMONT AT HEW HAMPSHIRE (America East).  The Team of the People are in action for one of their biggest conference games of the year!!  Vermont is a conference frontrunner, and picking up a win against them increases their chances of a first place finish and home court advantage in the conference tournament.

-CREIGHTON AT XAVIER (Big East).  Xavier doesn’t have a win against a highly ranked team, and they’re coming off two straight losses.  A win in this game would be good for their resume and their mental health.  As good as Creighton has been, they don’t have a road win of this caliber yet, so a win would really help their resume as well.

-SETON HALL AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Nova continues to look like a #1 seed and the chances of Seton Hall beating them is small.  Seton Hall has lost two straight games (both on the road), but I still believe they are good.  This is probably too tall of an order, though.

-SYRACUSE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Syracuse has been schizophrenic this year.  Their good wins indicate they’re a tournament team, and their bad losses indicate they’d be lucky to make the NIT.  They have been playing better, and if by some miracle they were to pick this up it would give their resume a much needed boost.

-KANSAS AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve).  Kansas has won sixteen straight games since losing the season opener in overtime.  Iowa State has struggled this year, but they still look like a tournament caliber team, and are still very tough to beat at home.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | 2 Comments

Bracketology 2017: March Madness Predictions (Version 3.0)

We are only 8 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 65 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, each of which was within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 37 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 3rd out of 88 entries over the past 3 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Kansas (Big 12)
1: Baylor (Big 12)
1: Kentucky (SEC)

2: Gonzaga (WCC)
2: UCLA (Pac-12)
2: Creighton (Big East)
2: Florida State (ACC)

3: Louisville (ACC)
3: Duke (ACC)
3: Butler (Big East)
3: North Carolina (ACC)

4: West Virginia (Big 12)
4: Oregon (Pac-12)
4: Virginia (ACC)
4: Florida (SEC)

5: Arizona (Pac-12)
5: Xavier (Big East)
5: Notre Dame (ACC)
5: Minnesota (Big 10)

6: Cincinnati (AAC)
6: Purdue (Big 10)
6: Wisconsin (Big 10)
6: St. Mary’s (WCC)

7: Maryland (Big 10)
7: SMU (AAC)
7: Clemson (ACC)
7: Virginia Tech (ACC)

8: USC (Pac-12)
8: South Carolina (SEC)
8: Michigan State (Big 10)
8: Indiana (Big 10)

9: Northwestern (Big 10)
9: Pitt (ACC)
9: Dayton (A-10)
9: VCU (A-10)

10: TCU (Big 12)
10: Seton Hall (Big East)
10: Iowa State (Big 12)
10: Arkansas (SEC)

11: Miami FL (ACC)
11: Texas Tech (Big 12)
11: Kansas State (Big 12)
11: Wichita State (MVC)
11: Rhode Island (A-10)
11: Illinois (Big 10)

12: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
12: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
12: Boise State (MWC)
12: Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt)

13: Oakland (Horizon)
13: Akron (MAC)
13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: Monmouth (MAAC)

14: New Mexico State (WAC)
14: Vermont (America East)
14: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
14: Princeton (Ivy)

15: Belmont (OVC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot)
15: North Dakota State (Summit)
15: UNC-Asheville (Big South)

16: Texas Southern (SWAC)
16: Weber State (Big Sky)
16: New Orleans (Southland)
16: NC Central (MEAC)
16: UC Irvine (Big West)
16: Mount St. Mary’s (NEC)

 

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-First and foremost, it is important to note that Jon Teitel is guessing the committee.  So, this isn’t what he thinks it should look like.  This is what he thinks other people will think it should look like.  I can proudly say that Jon Teitel is better at guessing what the actual selection committee will think than anyone I’ve ever met, and probably anyone that you’ve ever met because there just aren’t but one or two people on the planet that are better at guessing the committee than he is.  Saying that there are one or two people out there who can do it better is actually a very conservative estimate.  He got 65 out of 68 teams last year seeded correctly or within one line of it.  I mean….that’s amazing.  So, these comments are not critical of him.  They are critical of the people that he is guessing.

-Rhode Island.  Ho-Ly-CRAP!!!!  I don’t know what it is that Jon Teitel thinks will impress the committee about them.  Is it that they have just one true road win and that it’s against Saint Louis??  Is it that of their 11 overall wins, 7 were in home buy games?? (granted one of them was against Belmont who is an OVC frontrunner, but that still rates at best as a notable buy game (if there even is such a thing)).  They have a notable win against Cincinnati on a neutral floor, and that definitely is a good win, but it’s a singular win that’s basically an outlier on a profile that is otherwise nothing more than home buy wins.

The committee did a couple of stupid things last year, and Jon Teitel correctly projected much of it.  Because of that, I’m inclined to believe that they’re considering Rhode Island.

-And…I’m not that big on Arkansas either.  They’re 13-4.  Of their 13 wins, 9 were home buy games.  Two more were home wins against Houston and Texas.  Houston may be good, but they’re a fringe bubble team at best and not the kind of team that a solid tournament team would struggle with at home.  Texas is not even an NIT team right now.  Another win was at home against Missouri.  So, when it comes to winning games that rise above the level of not mattering to the NIT, they’ve won one game.  At Tennessee.  It’s a decent win, but that’s their entire profile.  None of their other wins set them apart from anything that an NIT team would be capable of doing.

-I’ve been critical of TCU, but I’m starting to warm up to the idea that they should be considered.  Since their schedule increased in difficulty, they’ve started to add some meat to their profile.  They’ve won at Texas and at home against Iowa State.  Those aren’t great wins, but they are at least decent, and they certainly rise above the level of a home buy win, which is all Arkansas and Rhody seem to have.

I still think teams like Middle Tennessee and UNC Wilmington, who Jon is guessing are outside the bubble are better than Arkansas, TCU, and Rhody.  Not only that, I think their paper is better.  The games they’ve won are harder to win than the games TCU, Rhody, and Arkansas have won.  Yet, Jon is guessing they’d be on the #12 line if the season ended today.  And….he’s probably right.  He is right about pretty much everything when it comes to guessing what the committee will do.  It’s the committee that would be wrong.

Posted in Bracketology | 2 Comments

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 15th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-All and all it was a pretty chalky Saturday with the teams that were expected to get the wins got the wins.  UCLA held on to win by a single point at Utah.  The thing to take away from that game is probably how well Utah played.  It was a missed opportunity at a huge win, which their profile needed, but there will be other opportunities for them in the future and given how they’ve been playing it looks like they’ll pick up the wins they need to impress the committee.

-Louisville took down Duke and North Carolina took down Florida State.  Both won as lower ranked teams, but they weren’t ranked lower by much and they were at home, so it’s not all that surprising that they picked up the wins.

-Xavier and Butler went back and forth in a top fifteen match up that, unlike the games from earlier in the week, was actually very exciting.  Butler held on to pick up the win at home, which is their fourth against teams that are currently in the rankings.  They also have wins over Indiana, Northwestern, and Utah, which are impressive.  Xavier, while good, is still looking for a signature win so you can’t help but feel that they missed a huge opportunity yesterday.

-Minnesota failed to pick up a road win at Penn State.  The Gophers are still in relatively good shape for now, but not as good of shape as they were at this time last week.

-Miami FL picked up what was clearly their most impressive win yesterday when they went into Pitt and absolutely blew them out.  It was probably the most noteworthy result of the day that involved likely tournament teams.

-Seton Hall lost their second straight road game when they fell to Providence.  The Pirates are still okay, but perhaps aren’t as high up the seed list as they would have been had they won at least one of those games.

-VCU fell at Davidson.  VCU is in trouble.  Their margin for error, which was already small, is now smaller.

-TCU picked up a nice home win against Iowa State, and actually looked pretty solid.  Slowly but surely, TCU is growing their profile and making a stronger case for themselves.  They still have some work to do, but their resume no longer consists only of a bunch of home buy wins.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-RUTGERS AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Indiana has fallen backwards a little bit and needs to take advantage of what is perhaps their most winnable remaining game.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Michigan State has improved a ton, whereas Ohio State keeps falling backwards and at this point would have to string together several big wins just to get back into the discussion.

-CINCINNATI AT EAST CAROLINA (American).  Cincinnati clearly looks like the class of the league and should take care of business on the road today.

-SMU AT TULANE (American).  SMU is coming off a close loss at Cincinnati and should be able to rebound with a very winnable road game today.

-GEORGIA TECH AT NC STATE (ACC).  Both teams have a lot of work to do to play their way into the discussion, but I suppose it is still within the realm of possibility that one or both of them could do it.

-IOWA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  Iowa has improved as the year has progressed, and Northwestern is perhaps having their best season in school history, which is to say it looks like they’ll make the NCAA Tournament this year.  Iowa really needs a road win if they want to start making some noise, and Northwestern really needs to hold serve at home.

-USC AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve).  USC has hit a skid and could use a road win to pull themselves out of it.  If they don’t pick this up you have to start wondering if they’re in a little bit of trouble.

Posted in Commentary, Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 15th

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Missouri State at Loyola-Chicago

Missouri State at Loyola-Chicago, 4:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU

With a light schedule among the Under the Radar programs today, we are turning our attention to a few teams that are a step off the top of the standings in the Missouri Valley Conference as the Missouri State Bears head to the Windy City to take on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers.  Missouri State put together a solid 9-4 non-conference resume, including a win over a Big East school (ok, it was only DePaul, but they are still in the Big East last time we checked!).  The Bears are 3-2 so far in MVC play (12-6 overall), and are coming off a 4 point home win over Evansville earlier this week.  Junior Alize Johnson has led the way so far this season for the Bears, although his stat lines are somewhat interesting.  He has had some great offensive games, including 30 points against Indiana State and 21 against Valparaiso.  He has also had very low-scoring games, including a scoreless effort against Southeast Missouri State and scoring only 7, 11, and 9 points respectively in his team’s last three games.  However, he has had double-digit rebounds in all over those games highlighted by a 16 rebound effort in the Evansville win this week.  That type of continued effort on the boards will give the Bears a great shot at the win this afternoon.

The Loyola Ramblers also put together a solid non-conference season, winning 10 of 13 games including a victory over San Diego State.  The Ramblers are 2-3 so far in conference play and coming off of a 12-point loss at Wichita State Wednesday night.  Despite losing, Milton Doyle has a great game against the Shockers.  He scored 23 points while pulling down 7 rebounds and dishing out 8 assists.  Doyle has been in double figures in scoring every game so far this season, including a season-best 35 points last weekend in a win over Bradley.  This game today may not be a battle for the top of the conference standings, but with players like Johnson and Doyle on the court, it will be a fun one to watch and should prove worthy of the Under the Radar Game of the Day selection.

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