News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Jan 11th

Posted on January 11, 2017 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-First and foremost, WE STILL LOVE THE UNH WILDCATS!!!!  They are the Team of the People!!  They’ve had an incredibly frustrating couple of weeks, but their high ceiling is still high!!  They’re back in action tonight, and Chad Sherwood has made it his UTR Game of the Day!  CLICK HERE to read about tonight’s big game at Albany

-We had some great showcase games yesterday!  We had THREE games that matched up top fifteen teams!  All three of those games were complete duds!  Xavier had a great first ten minutes, and was absolutely blown off the floor by Villanova after that.  Baylor had an okay first half, and then was absolutely run out of the gym by West Virginia in the second half.  Duke tried to stay within reach of Florida State, but by the end of the game that was pretty much a blowout as well.  All three home teams won rather easily.  As big as the margins were, it isn’t totally crazy that the games were blowouts, nor does it mean that Xavier, Duke, and Baylor aren’t as good as their rankings or profiles indicated going into last night.  It just means that they’re not used to playing in hostile environments against other highly ranked teams yet.  Sometimes a team has to get their noses bloodied before they realize that they need to fight harder.  Not to pick on Xavier, but the same thing happened to them at Villanova last season, and they went on to absorb it and were a pretty tough road team after that.  Don’t be surprised if we see the same thing happen again from all three of these teams.

Not to continue to harp on that point, but if you go back through the years, most teams lose their first couple of true road game that is played in a hostile environment.  The earlier a team goes on the road and plays a game like that, the more quickly they seem to become acclimated.  We saw Virginia go to George Washington last year, and North Carolina go to Northern Iowa and Texas as well.  Both teams lost those games, but at the same time they also seemed to become more acclimated more quickly to playing on the road.  I think what we saw last night was teams that just weren’t used to playing in those kinds of environments against those kinds of teams.  I know Xavier did go to Baylor, but that was really their only true road game against a very strong team.

-Kansas State lost in spectacular fashion at Texas Tech after a late game technical foul against Coach Bruce Weber basically killed their chances to pick up what would have been a solid conference road win.  It was another good home win for a Texas Tech team that’s now flirting with the bubble.

-Indiana’s frustrations continue as they lost at Maryland.  There’s really no shame in losing at Maryland, and they were in a position to win the game in the final seconds, but the aggravation of not getting it done is starting to mount for the Hoosiers.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-HOUSTON AT EAST CAROLINA (American).  Houston’s at-large chances are still flickering.  They need to knock off some of the teams at the top of the league as well as blow through the rest of the league.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  VCU is one of the few A10 teams that appears to be hovering around the bubble.  Like all bubble teams with limited chances at notable wins, their margin for error is small.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  South Carolina is clearly the better team and is having the better season, but this won’t be the easiest road game for them to win.

-MINNESOTA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Minnesota has been one of the bigger surprises of the season.  For that matter so has Michigan State, but they’ve been the other kind of a surprise.  This is the kind of road win that could further solidify Minnesota, and it’s the type of home win that could help stabilize Michigan State.

-PITTSBURGH AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Louisville still appears to be on the cusp of a protected seed and should be able to take care of business at home and even out their conference record.

-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita appears to be somewhat safely inside the bubble and should remain there so long as they hold serve.

-DAYTON AT UMASS (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton appears to be inside the bubble for now, but because the league has so many teams that appear to be NIT caliber at best their margin for error is rather small.

-SETON HALL AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Seton Hall is 12-3.  Seton Hall is the defending Big East Champion.  As much love as the Big East has been getting, I’m amazed that very little of it has seemed to trickle down to a Seton Hall program that throughout all of last year and so far all of this year has been very good.  They have a chance to pick up yet another conference road win against a Marquette team that’s also on the rise.

-TCU AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  There has been a lot of TCU love here at Hoops HD.  It is warranted in the sense that their program is improving.  It is not warranted (at least in my opinion) as far as them being improved to the point of being an NCAA Tournament team.  Texas has clearly not looked like an NCAA team.  If TCU truly is an NCAA team, then this is the kind of road game they need to be able to win.  So for that reason, I believe it is a rather important litmus test.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  UNC continues to look like they are clearly in the protected seed range and they have a winnable road game tonight.

-LSU AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  I highlight this game only so I can say how utterly disappointed I am in Texas A&M so far.

-MICHIGAN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  What a bubblelicous game this is!  Both teams really need this one for that reason.

-NC STATE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  I’m still not all that high on this NC State team, and even if they pick up this road win, that will not change.

-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve).  This game has a pivotal feel for both teams.  Both have looked like they could be good, and both have a few good things on their profile, but both need to add a lot more meat to it.

-BUTLER AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Both teams are high in the rankings, and if the season ended today it’s very likely that both would be protected seeds.  Butler hasn’t been the best road team this year, and Creighton has been remarkable at home, so the advantage is strongly with the Blue Jays.  If Butler wins this and gets a true road win on their profile of this caliber it probably moves them up at least one seed line.  Maybe more.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: New Hampshire at Albany

Posted on January 11, 2017 by Chad

New Hampshire at Albany, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Boston University 73, UNH 69.  Dartmouth 63, UNH 62.  Stony Brook 59, UNH 56.  8 points in total.  That is all that has separated the New Hampshire Wildcats from wins in their last three games against Division I opponents.  Things have not gone well for the HoopsHD Team of the People during the last few weeks, and it is time to turn things around and move towards that first-ever NCAA Tournament bid.  Tonight, the Wildcats (9-6 overall, 0-1 in conference) head to Albany to take on the Great Danes.  Star player Tanner Leissner had three of his best point totals (25, 19 and 25) in the three losses.  However, he is going to need more help from the rest of his teammates if New Hampshire wants to pick up this road win.  The talent and ability are definitely here, and a win tonight will easily erase the bad memories of the last few weeks as conference play moves forward.

The Albany Great Danes are coming off of one of the roughest losses in their program’s history on Sunday at Stony Brook.  UAlbany (9-8 overall, 0-2 in conference) held at 70-51 lead late in the game and appeared to be cruising to their first conference victory.  Then the sky fell down, the earth opened up, and all kinds of awful things happened.  When the dust cleared, Stony Brook had finished the game on an amazing 21-0 run to defeat the Great Danes 72-70.  UAlbany will be out to erase those memories at home tonight.  David Nichols and Joe Cremo will look to lead the way.  Nichols has scored in double figures in 7 of his last 8 games, while Cremo has averaged 20 points in the team’s two conference games so far.  Tonight’s game will certainly be about redemption.  The only question is whether it will be UNH’s after their rough last few weeks or UAlbany’s after what happened on Sunday.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Jan 10th

Posted on January 10, 2017 by David Griggs

 

NEWS AND NOTES

-I believe I forgot to mention this at the time, but back on December 18th Clemson picked up a nice neutral floor win against Alabama.  The game was in Birmingham and the crowd was partial to Alabama, so even though it was technically a neutral floor win it was much closer to a road game than a home game.  I don’t know why I suddenly feel compelled to mention that.

-For our latest Hoops HD Report, where we run through all of the multi-bid leagues and discuss the biggest surprises and disappointments of the season so far – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Akron and Central Michigan – CLICK HERE

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve) (***Potential Protected Seed Showcase!!!***).  Both teams are in the top ten.  Baylor is #1 for the first time in their history and they have some very big wins already, but this is probably their toughest game to date considering it is a true road game against a legitimately highly ranked team.  Both look like they could end up as protected seeds and this would certainly be a high profile win for whoever it is that pulls it out.

-XAVIER AT VILLANOVA (Big East)(***Potential Protected Seed Showcase!!!***).  These are two of the heavyweights from the Big East.  At this point in time Nova is clearly the more proven team.  Xavier has a good record and some decent wins, but no great ones.  Pulling this off would certainly qualify as a great win.  Perhaps the greatest single win that any team has managed up to this point.

-DUKE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC)(***Potential Protected Seed Showcase!!!***).  Both teams are highly ranked.  Both are likely protected seeds and even possible #1 seeds, and this is the kind of game they need to be able to win in order to land on the #1 line.  Florida State has actually looked like the better team and has built the better profile.  Duke is also adjusting to life without Coach K, so it will be interesting to see what they can do against a good team in a hostile environment.

-KENTUCKY AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Kentucky can end up on the #1 line if they continue to blow through the SEC.  This is also a good chance for them to pick up another true road win.

-SYRACUSE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  Syracuse is the nation’s most schizophrenic team.  Their good wins are really good, and their bad losses are atrocious.  Outside of their win at Michigan Virginia Tech has struggled on the road, but they’ve been really tough at home.  This is a big game and good opportunity for both teams.

-FLORIDA AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Florida has been playing really well, but so has Alabama in their last couple of games.  The Gators are the better team, but they’re also on the road, so this won’t be the easiest game for them to win.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  Arkansas is off to a good start, but they need a strong showing in conference in order to make the field, and they need to hold serve in games like this.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  Kansas clearly looks like a #1 seed having won every game since the season opener, and should be able to pick up another road win in this one.  When these two met last year, it was a much bigger deal.

-KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  Both teams have shown some promise, but both still have a lot of work to do.  This is a big game for both teams because this is the kind of game that both of them need to win.

–

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Akron at Central Michigan

Posted on January 10, 2017 by Chad

Akron at Central Michigan, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For our latest Hoops HD Report video podcast, CLICK HERE.

Mount Pleasant, Michigan is the home of the Central Michigan Chippewas and the home of tonight’s Under the Radar Game of the Day.  CMU, sitting at 10-5 overall (though 0-2 in MAC play) will be playing host to the Akron Zips, our current projected MAC champion.  The Chippewas are undefeated at home this season, having won all six contests at McGuirk Arena.  They are led by Marcus Keene, one of the nation’s most prolific scorers.  Keene has struggled over his last three games, scoring 16, 22 and 14 points respectively.  Although those numbers would be great for many players, they are his three lowest totals on the season so far.  If he is able to bring back the form that had him scoring 40 points to go with 11 assists and 7 rebounds against Green Bay back in December, Akron will be in a lot of trouble tonight.

Akron currently sits at 12-3 overall and 2-0 in MAC play, tied with Ohio for first play in the MAC East Division.  Isaiah Johnson continues to be a force down low for the Zips, having picked up his third double-double of the season last time out against Western Michigan.  In that game, Johnson scored 16 points while pulling down 13 rebounds.  Also keep an eye on Jimond Ivey, who has scored in double figures in 6 of the Zips’ last 7 games.  Ivey scored a career high 23 points in his team’s conference opening win over Bowling Green last week.  If Johnson, Ivey and the rest of the Zips can continue to play as well as they have so far this season, they have a great chance to make it back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2013.

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The Hoops HD Report: January 9th

Posted on January 9, 2017 by David Griggs

Chad and the panel run through all of the multi-bid conferences.  They take a look back at this past week’s action and look ahead to all of this week’s upcoming games.  They also talk about some of the biggest surprises and disappointments in each league including Baylor earning the #1 ranking after starting off unranked, Florida State earning their highest ranking since 1992, and USC being better than expected.  All of that, and much more…

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show….

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Chad’s Bracket Projection – January 9, 2017

Posted on January 9, 2017 by Chad

Below is my projected bracket through games of January 8, 2017, together with my notes on the field.  Below the bracket, other members of our HoopsHD panel have taken the time to rip it apart and tell me how crazy I am.  This bracket is built as if the season ended today and makes no attempts to project future game results.

NOTES

– I have an ACC team on the 1 line.  It is not Duke.  It is not North Carolina.  It isn’t even Virginia or Louisville.  Yes, that is how good I think Florida State’s profile is this year.  They are the best team in the best conference at this point, and as a result, they deserve a 1 seed.  I never thought in a million years I would ever say that about a Leonard Hamilton team.  But I just did.

– West Virginia is on my 2 line and may be underrated.  This team is scary good and I would not be shocked at all to see them in the Final Four.

– There are 6 ACC teams on the top four lines, which would be a record.  I expect one or two to fall off the pace a bit as they beat each other up.

– I hereby officially apologize for every criticism I have ever had of “little” Richard Pitino.  Minnesota is good this year, and looking more like a protected seed and Big Ten title contender than a bubble team.

– USC lost for the second time all year late last night, and promptly fell down to the 7 line.  They simply do not have the quality wins to justify anything higher than that in my opinion.

– Northwestern is in.  And solidly.  This could be the year!!!

– Michigan State is clinging to a 9 seed.  This could be the year for their streak to end as well.  They have not missed the field since 1997.

– Wichita State, Middle Tennessee and UNC-Wilmington all have at-large caliber profiles at the moment and belong in above the First Four teams.

– There are 11 ACC teams in this field.  There are 9 Big Ten teams in as well.  Beyond those, the Big 12 got 6, the Big East got 5, the Pac-12 and SEC had 4 each, and the American, A-10 and WCC had 2 each.  Every other conference has a single bid.

– My last six teams in, in order, were Illinois, Nebraska, Miami, Texas Tech, NC State and Oklahoma State.

– Yes, I know NC State lost by 51 points on Sunday.  Yes, I do still have them in my field.  Why?  Well who the hell else was there to put in there?  My top four teams out were TCU, Michigan, Rhode Island and Memphis.  All four of those make my stomach turn in disgust.  I also gave consideration to such garbage as Marquette, California, Utah, Houston, Providence, Wake Forest and Kansas State.  We really need to drop back down to 64 teams.

– As a final note, I hope Oregon fans are not too upset about having to play Oakland in Sacramento . . .  😉

 

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– It does sound crazy at first glance for Florida State to be high on the top line, but they’ve cashed in on almost all of the opportunities in front of them so far. UCLA and Kentucky won’t have the same opportunities to get this high in their own conferences, short of the Noles or another 1-seed losing.

– I also suspect some of the same rationale applies to Oregon just missing the top 4 seed lines for the time being. They started slow with Dillon Brooks not even playing against Baylor, and they paid for his absence earlier in the year. He would do well to not have similar flagrant-2 fouls like the one he had against Washington State on Saturday. If he does it again, he’ll be facing a one-game suspension similar to He Who Must Not Be Named.

– Xavier is another 5 seed based on what they’ve accomplished so far, but probably more eye test has them this high for now. Their gauntlet is now before them – at Villanova, at Butler, and at home against Creighton.

– USC may be a 7 right now, but I get a feeling they’re headed in the wrong direction. Losing to Cal at home isn’t a cardinal sin, but a nice road win would really help to offset that. A more talented USC team really didn’t have a signature road win last season that sticks out for me. I actually like all the 8-seed teams more than the Trojans right now – like South Carolina last year, they no longer have the luxury of an unbeaten record overall or in conference to fall back on.

– I don’t have a problem with teams like UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee above the First Four cut-line for now, although I have a feeling other bubble teams will jump over them later on this season with quality wins. (Wichita has already proven they can collect rent from the rest of dues-paying Missouri Valley members.) My only other UTR quibble would be the MAC representative; I still give Ohio a slight edge thanks to their win at Georgia Tech earlier this year. I know the Jackets aren’t great, but it’s still a better win than anything Akron has so far.

 

NOTES FROM DAVID

-I hate saying this, but Chad actually did a pretty good job.

-I personally would not have Florida State on the #1 line, but I don’t think it’s all that crazy to have them up there.  I could make a case for them if I had to.  They have just one loss, and they have a very good win at Virginia.  A case could easily be made.

-The one team that I seem to be bigger on than everyone else at Hoops HD is UCLA.  Now, you will have had to have followed us for several years to see the ultimate irony in that because I normally like UCLA less than everyone else, but I really like them this year.  The win at Kentucky is the single greatest win that anyone one has on their profile.  Their one loss was at the buzzer on the road against a very good Oregon team.  They have beaten everyone else.  I realize that the number of wins against teams in the field is lacking, so I can’t say that it’s too far off base to not have them on the #1 line, but they are still currently on my #1 line and I do think they are good enough to ultimately end up there.

-Kind of an Under the Radar comment, but I am now convinced that Oakland, and not Valpo, is not only the king of the Horizon League, but if they run the table they’ll be squarely on the bubble.  They just won at Valpo rather easily, and that is the toughest remaining game on their schedule, so it’s not too far fetched to think that they can win out.  If they do, then they will be right there in the discussion.

-I do not understand NC State.  Why does everyone think NC State is good?  It’s not that they lost by a million at UNC on a given day.  It’s that they aren’t really capable of playing any better than that, and at no point have they given any indication that they’re a good team.  They beat Virginia Tech at home, and they won a bunch of home buy games.  That is their entire profile.  I don’t think UCF should be in the field at this point, but at least they’ve, on occasion, looked like an NCAA Tournament team.  NC State really hasn’t.  Davidson doesn’t belong in the field either, but I believe them to be a better team than NC State.

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