-The Bracket Projections below are what I feel the field should look like based on a team’s CURRENT MERIT. It is not necessarily a reflection of how good I think a team is or where I think they will end up in March, but simply an evaluation of what they have done up to this point.
-You need to understand that what you are seeing is a flawless and impeccable analysis of where college basketball stands at the moment. Below there will be some comments and critiques from Chad Sherwood and John Stalica. Anything they say that disagrees or contradicts my analysis is, by definition, incorrect.
DAVID’S NOTES ON THE BRACKET
-Baylor, with three wins against highly ranked teams and an unbeaten record, still sits atop the seed list as the #1 overall seed.
-Butler’s wins are actually as good and perhaps even better than Baylor’s. The only thing keeping them from being the top #1 overall seed was a loss to an Indiana State team that doesn’t appear to be a tournament team. But, wins against Arizona and Indiana on neutral floors, as well as a home win against Cincinnati, and other notable wins against Northwestern and at Utah, is a hell of an early season profile.
-The line that separates the teams have solid tournament caliber and resume-building wins from the teams that have really done nothing other than hold serve is about the #6 line. Xavier has some decent wins, but none against anyone that looks to be a solid tournament team (at least not yet). They check in at #24 on the seed list, and everyone below them has pretty much just held serve, avoided bad losses (for the most part), and while they may have a few decent wins, they did not come against anyone who is being projected solidly into the field.
-One exception to that is Temple, who is kind of hard to place. There are always schizophrenic teams, and to be honest there are usually more than what we’ve seen so far this year, but Temple definitely falls into that category. Their good wins are really good, and their bad losses are really bad. They come in on the #11 line, but a case could easily be made that they deserve to be seeded a lot better than that. A case can also be made that they don’t belong in at all.
-I can already tell that I’m going to get criticized for being too friendly to the UTR teams. Middle Tennessee, Valpo, Wichita State, UNC Wilmington, UT Arlington, and Monmouth are all seeded in the first ballot team range. Well, here is my response. At this point, why shouldn’t they be??
Middle Tennessee has no huge wins, but they have a lot of decent ones, and many of those came away from home. Their recent loss at VCU doesn’t really move them down.
Texas Arlington, while they do have some head-scratching losses, also has one of the single most impressive true road wins of the year with their win at Saint Mary’s. A win at Texas (which is looking less and less good), can’t be overlooked either.
Monmouth has just two losses, and one of those was at the buzzer at South Carolina. Their road win at Memphis was rather impressive the other night. The teams below them don’t really have a true road win as good as that.
Valpo has some decent (not great, but decent) wins and their only two losses came at Oregon and at Kentucky, both of whom have a very likely chance of finishing unbeaten at home.
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Dayton, Colorado, Houston, Clemson, Minnesota, Kansas State, Ohio State, Memphis, Rhode Island, UCF, Auburn, NC State, Davidson, California, Rutgers, Akron, Iowa State, Miami FL, TCU, East Tennessee State, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas Tech, Charleston, Coppin State (via the Centenary Award)
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I am ok with most of the 1-4 seeds, with one exception. USC on the 4 line. I know they are undefeated. However, the only team that made this field whom they defeated was Texas A&M, and I am not certain that A&M even belongs in (though the win being on the road, I do give the Trojans credit). USC barely beat Troy at home this weekend. If they had lost the A&M game, they might not even belong in the field, or could be a First Four team at best. I would probably have them around an 8 or 9 seed, which would match with their current KenPom rating of 39.
– Oklahoma State. Nice job winning at Wichita State. The Cowboys would be in my field right now as well. But they would be a double-digit seed. They beat Wichita, David, not Kansas.
– Wisconsin all the way down on the 6 line is a crime as well. Only two losses, and both to teams on David’s 3 line (North Carolina and Creighton). To somehow think that Oklahoma State and USC have better profiles the that is just wrong.
– I guess I can understand Maryland being in the field and in an 8/9 game, but I do not think this team even comes close to passing the eye test. However, much like USC, they simply haven’t picked up any true wins of note. Unlike USC, they do have a loss to a team that does not belong even under consideration (Pitt). Maryland should probably be in one of the First Four games.
– I am all for showing love to Under the Radar programs, but two Sun Belt teams in the field is a joke. Arlington has done good enough to be better than a 12 seed, but probably not much (I would have them around an 11 at best). Arkansas State won at Georgetown and lost at North Dakota State. The margin for error is razor thing for Sun Belt teams seeking an at-large bid, and the Red Wolves would be on the bad side of that still. They do play Alabama and Minnesota away from home this week. If they go 2-0, I will change my tune.
– Temple has losses to New Hampshire, UMass and George Washington. Beating Florida State and West Virginia does not make up for that. They are not even close.
– Congrats to Wake Forest. Your best win is College of Charleston and David thinks you are a tournament team. David is insane.
– I would comment about UCF, but I don’t think I can even stomach that. Seriously? UCF after losing at home to Penn? Seriously???
– Last but not least, Michigan State barely survives FGCU at home and loses at home to Northeastern. Their other 4 losses (yes, they have 5 already!) are respectable, but YOU NEED TO WIN GAMES! I am starting to think David picked the teams for this week’s field out of a hat. Actually, I think picking them out of the hat would have netted better results. I HATE PUPPETS!
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I know we’re splitting hairs when talking about #1 seeds in December, but what does the puppet like about Duke so much more than Kansas? The Blue Devils are 5-1 away from home, but their only wins of note are Florida and URI/Michigan State (both of whom are dropping like a stone). Kansas has beaten Georgia, Stanford and Davidson. Oh, and they also beat Duke head-to-head in what may as well be a road game in New York.
– I thought I would have some explaining to do to justify Oklahoma State being a first-ballot team, but the puppet has them just a cut below a protected seed right now. It’s amazing what a win at Wichita State will do for a profile that, until then, had a win against Georgetown in Maui as its only other win of note.
– I would also agree that Xavier belongs in the 6-line based on what they’ve done so far – it’s about the same trajectory that Cal did last year (although they got enough wins away from home to ultimately end up as a 4). Clemson in my view is a tournament team, albeit not a solid one as the puppet has stipulated. If they win at South Carolina, they would be a tournament team beyond a reasonable doubt at this stage.
– If the puppet is wowed by teams like UNC-Wilmington, Texas-Arlington, Monmouth and Middle Tennessee, he’d better have Arkansas higher than a 10. They’ve already beaten Fort Wayne and Arlington (and also Houston), and they also got an emotional win against their old friends from Texas down in Houston over the weekend. The aforementioned teams don’t even have the volume of quality wins that the 2015-16 Monmouth team did (but thankfully, none of their bad losses, either).
– I can’t justify keeping UCF in this field after losing at home to Penn and then at GW back-to-back. Even Michigan State is a team I can’t justify having in the field right now. If your best wins are Wichita State and Florida Gulf Coast, you have a lot of work to do in the Big Ten this year.
