For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Saint Francis University and Lehigh – CLICK HERE
For Jon Teitel’s road trip to the BB&T Classic – CLICK HERE
This week, it is John Stalica’s turn to project the bracket as he sees fit through the checkpoint of games played until yesterday. (Later in the year, we will begin to see projections from Jon Teitel – he is our expert as to guessing what the actual NCAA Selection Committee will do.)
Teams like Baylor, UCLA and Villanova have really begun to separate themselves as far as top-seed resumes go. Whether or not they maintain that remains to be seen. This is also why I have Kentucky back down at the 3-line for now – while losing at home to UCLA isn’t a terrible crime, the win against Michigan State is not as strong for the time being.
Teams like Virginia Tech and Florida State continue to impress despite slight blips on the radar for each team. I have Xavier lower this week because they are creeping closer to the tag of “homecourt hero” again. Wins against Clemson and Northern Iowa on a neutral floor are okay, but they could have really used a true road win against Colorado to get closer to being a protected seed again.
And why on earth do I have Minnesota up on the 7-line, you ask? They’ve actually done a smart job in terms of scheduling wins, although they too are a homecourt hero. You can’t ignore wins against teams like Arkansas, Vandy and Texas-Arlington forever. Even losing to Florida State on the road isn’t too bad – they were competitive in that one.
As far as teams creeping into the field, I am also on the puppet’s UCF bandwagon for the time being. I would also like to welcome Auburn and Providence into the field.
Other teams considered: TCU, Houston, St. Bonaventure, Miami-FL, Ole Miss, SMU, Marquette, Wake Forest, California, Davidson, Colorado State, BYU, East Tennessee State, and a land grant school not named after its home state of New Jersey.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Before dissecting what is correct and incorrect about John’s bracket, I’d like to draw your attention to something on Warren Nolan’s website, and that is the ELO CHESS RATINGS. CLICK HERE. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the concept, it basically ranks how hard a team is to beat. The winning team will take points away from the losing team, and how close they are in the rankings prior to the game determines how many points are taken. When measuring the value of wins and losses, I feel that it is important to reference the Elo Chess ratings. Now having said that, they are not on the team sheets that the NCAA looks at, nor are they even in the room at all from what I understand, so if you’re trying to guess the actual committee you should perhaps discard them. But for the sake of the Hoops HD mock committee, which is really the only committee that matters, I will be using these as a reference and I encourage all other members to do the same.
Now, the rankings are far from perfect for college basketball because I would argue (and I would be correct in my argument because I always am), that a team is significantly harder to beat on their home court. Elo Chess was originally created to rank CHESS players, so there was/is no such thing as a home court advantage. As far as I know, the Elo Chess rankings do not account for where a game is played, so some common sense is required. A team like Saint Bonaventure, who checks in at #69 at the time I’m writing this, is much harder to beat at home than on a neutral floor, and I would argue (again, correctly) that UNC Wilmington deserves a lot of credit for their win at Saint Bonaventure this Saturday. But it is still a very good reference or general indicator of how hard games are to win. For what it’s worth, the FBS football committee completely throws this concept out the window. They basically knock teams for losing no matter who they lose to. With Elo Chess, you lose much fewer points for losing to someone that’s already ahead of you, and gain much fewer points by beating a team that’s already behind you.
Now, on to the bracket….
-The team that we are furthest apart on is Colorado State. I like them, and I’m right. They won at Colorado, and one of their two losses was to a good Wichita State team. How are they not even in the field?? GOOD GRIEF STALICA!!! They should be the projected Mountain West Champion, and they should be inside the bubble!! (Only if you’re a fan of wins over MD-Eastern Shore, Southeastern Louisiana, Alcorn State, Northern Colorado and 2 other non-DI teams. – John)
-Strangely enough, I agree with a lot more than I disagree with, including Valpo on the #9 line. That is bound to raise some eyebrows, and who knows if they’ll be able to sustain that with so few opportunities left on their schedule, but as of now their profile warrants it. Their two losses are at Kentucky and at Oregon, which are top 15 teams in the current Elo Chess rankings. Essentially, if you’re in the top 15 of the Elo Chess rankings, you’re probably not losing at home to anyone that isn’t a #1 seed, and perhaps not even them, so you can’t knock Valpo at all for losing those two games.
-Northwestern’s profile may not scream a #9 seed, but the eye test certainly does. They came close to beating both Notre Dame and Butler. Had they gotten one of those they’re easily a first ballot team at this point. The good news for Northwestern is that they’ll have many opportunities at statement wins in Big Ten play, so if they’re good enough they’ll get there.
-I like Middle Tennessee more than a #12 seed, but it’s hard to make a case for them when only looking at their paper. They did win big at Ole Miss and only have one loss on the season, but Ole Miss is probably an NIT team so it’s hard to say they belong on the #8 line if all they’ve done is beat an NIT team on the road.
-Minney on the #7 line seems ridiculously high, but with this being a checkpoint and not a forecast, I suppose I could see putting them there for now. Nevertheless, I highly doubt they end up staying there.
