Bracket Projections: Nov 21st

Posted on November 21, 2016 by David Griggs

Below is our most recent Bracket Projections, and I know it looks crazy.  This is not a forecast of the future, but rather a CHECKPOINT of CURRENT MERIT.  It is not even a reflection of how good I think the teams currently are, but merely what they’ve done on the court.  Nothing more, nothing less.

I believe teams like Louisville, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Wichita State, and Iowa State are much better than where they fall on the seed list, but again, I’m not evaluating how good I think the teams are or will end up being.  I’m only assessing what they have done up to this point, and if a team has done nothing more than win buy games at home, then they will not be high in the rankings.

Conversely, while I’m impressed with what teams like Arkansas State, Ohio U, and Tennessee State have done up to this point, I do not believe they will end up on the #5 line when March gets here.  If you want predictions of what people think things will look like in March then this is not your bracket.  This is merely a checkpoint of current merit.  The reason I do it this way is because, well, I like doing it this way, and because it allows me to better evaluate the teams as the season progresses.

Another oddity that only bracket junkies will pick up on is that we have First Four games on the #15 line.  Well, that’s just how it worked out.  It’s early.  It’s the equivalent of an April batting average.  Things look kind of odd right now.

Below is the seed list and the notes on each team.  Below that is the bracket.

 

1. VILLANOVA. 5-0. Wins @ Purdue and vs UCF
2. INDIANA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Kansas
3. KANSAS. 2-1. Win vs Duke
4. DUKE. 4-1. No bad losses. Win against Rhode Island
5. SAINT MARY’S. 3-0. Road win @ Dayton, home win vs Nevada
6. Michigan. 4-0 with convincing neutral floor wins vs Marquette and SMU
7. KENTUCKY. 4-0. Blowout neutral win vs Michigan State
8. Creighton. 4-0, home win vs Wisconsin, neutral win vs NC State
9. ARIZONA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Michigan State
10. Xavier. 5-0. Neutral floor wins vs Clemson and Northern Iowa
11. RHODE ISLAND. 3-1, neutral win vs Cincinnati
12. Baylor. 3-0. Home win vs Oregon
13. Virginia. 3-0. Blowout home win v Yale, road win @ UNCG
14. North Carolina. 4-0. 2 road wins
15. Usc. 3-0. Win @ Texas A&M
16. DAYTON. 2-1. Win @ Alabama
17. Seton Hall. 3-0, win @ Iowa
18. SMU. 3-1. Neutral win vs Pitt
19. OHIO. 3-0. Win @ Georgia Tech and blowout win against Sam Houston.
20. ARKANSAS STATE. 3-1. All road/neutral wins. @ Georgetown, vs Chattanooga
21. TENNESSEE STATE. 4-0. All wins coming away from home, including @ Middle Tennessee
22. NORTHERN IOWA. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Arizona State and Oklahoma
23. Oklahoma. 3-1. Neutral win vs Clemson
24. Clemson. 2-2. Home win vs Georgia, neutral win vs Davidson
25. YALE. 2-1. Win @ Washington
26. UTAH STATE. 3-0. Win @ UC Irvine
27. Oregon. 2-1. Most notable win is home v Valpo
28. NORTH DAKOTA STATE. 3-1. 2 road/neutral wins
29. UNC WILMINGTON. 2-0. Nice wins at Eastern Kentucky and home vs ETSU
30. Syracuse. 3-0. All home buy games, but a nice win against Monmouth
31. Gonzaga. 3-0, best win is at home vs San Diego State
32. OLD DOMINION. 2-0. Win @ Richmond
33. Florida. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Saint Bonaventure
34. Louisville. 3-0. All home buy games
35. Wisconsin. 2-1 with 2 home buy wins
36. Purdue. 2-1, two home buy wins
37. West Virginia. 3-0, all home buy games
38. Miami FL. 3-0, all home buy games
39. Ucla. 4-0, all home buy wins
40. Cincinnati. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Penn State
41. Butler. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Northwestern
42. Maryland. 4-0. Best win is home vs Georgetown
43. Florida State. 4-0, all home buy games. Best wins vs Iona and Winthrop
44. Michigan State. 2-2. No bad losses, but only has 2 home buy wins
45. Pittsburgh. 3-1. Neutral win vs Marquette
46. Byu. 3-0, home win vs Princeton
47. Marquette. 2-2, best win vs Vanderbilt
48. Wake Forest. 4-1. Road win @ Charleston, neutral win vs UTEP
49. Davidson. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Missouri and Arizona State
50. Mississippi. 4-0. Neutral wins vs Saint Joe’s and Oral Roberts
51. Wichita State. 4-0, but opponents are a combined 1-12
52. CHATTANOOGA. 2-2. Win @ Tennessee, loss vs Arkansas State
53. Iowa State. 3-0, all home buy wins
54. UNC ASHEVILLE. 2-2. Neutral win vs Siena
55. FAIRFIELD. 3-0. 2 road wins, one @ Wagner
56. ALBANY. 2-2. Win at Penn State
57. Ohio State. 3-0, win @ Navy
58. South Carolina. 4-0, home win vs Monmouth
59. Texas A&M. 2-1, both home buy wins
60. Notre Dame. 3-0, all home buy wins
61. Vcu. 3-0, all home buy wins
62. Virginia Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
63. Texas. 3-0, all home buy wins
64. Colorado. 3-0, all home buy wins
65. Iowa. 3-1, all wins are home buy games
66. Georgia. 2-1, 2 home buy wins
67. Texas Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
68. Kansas State. 3-0, all home buy wins
69. California. 2-0, all home buy wins
70. Oklahoma State. 3-0. All home buy wins
71. Arkansas. 3-0, all home buy wins
72. UC IRVINE. 2-2 with no bad losses.
73. TEXAS SOUTHERN. 3-1, all road wins
74. JACKSONVILLE. 3 wins away from home
75. NC State. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Montana
76. Illinois. 4-0. All home buy wins
77. Minnesota. 4-0. Best win is home vs Saint John’s
78. Nebraska. 3-0. All home buy wins
79. New Mexico. 3-0. Best win at home vs New Mexico State
80. Utah. 3-0, just one div1 win
81. San Diego State. Just 1 div1 win, and it’s a home buy game
82. UMKC. 3-1. Neutral win vs Murray State
83. Lsu. 3-0. All home buy wins
84. WRIGHT STATE. 2-1. We still like Valpo, but they’ve yet to beat a team that’s won a game
85. BOSTON U. 3-1
86. SAM HOUSTON STATE. 2-1
87. LONG ISLAND. 2-2
88. MONTANA STATE. 2 wins, both against winless teams
89. NC CENTRAL. 2-2

 

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Texas Southern at James Madison

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Chad

Texas Southern at James Madison, 7:00 PM Eastern, caa.tv

The Under the Radar Game of the Day heads to Harrisonburg, Virginia this evening for the non-conference matchup between the CAA’s James Madison Dukes and the SWAC’s Texas Southern Tigers.  The Dukes will be looking for their first win of the season tonight, after opening 0-3 with losses at Old Dominion and at Montana State sandwiched around a home loss to Rice.  Shakir Brown has led the way so far this season for JMU, including 15 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals in the Montana State loss last time out.  With a five game road trip starting this weekend, the Dukes really needs tonight’s game and Wednesday’s against Louisiana-Lafayette to begin building some momentum.

Tonight’s opponent for James Madison is Mike Davis’ Texas Southern Tigers.  As is often typical for teams from the SWAC, TSU’s non-conference schedule is loaded with road games.  In fact, Texas Southern will not play at home until January 14 against Grambling State!  That being said the Tigers have looked very good so far this year.  After dropping their opener at Texas-Arlington, they have won three straight — at Delaware State, at Rice and at La Salle.  Dulani Robinson was the star of the La Salle game, as his three-pointer at the buzzer gave the Tigers an thrilling one point win.  A fourth non-conference true road win tonight will be the most by Texas Southern in at least the last 15 years — and one of the best non-conference road performances by any SWAC team since the conference moved up to Division I!

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: East Tennessee State at UNC-Wilmington

Posted on November 20, 2016 by Chad

East Tennessee State at UNC-Wilmington, 3:00 PM Eastern, caa.tv

For the rest of today’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games, CLICK HERE.

Today’s Under the Radar Game of the Day comes to us from Wilmington, North Carolina where the preseason favorites in the Colonial will be hosting one of the Southern Conference’s top teams.  UNC-Wilmington enters play today with a perfect 2-0 record, having defeated non-D1 Claflin and withstood a late run at Eastern Kentucky to pull out an overtime win.  CJ Bryce (21 points, 8 rebounds) and Chris Flemmings (18 points, 10 rebounds) led the way for the Seahawks in that win.  Also keep an eye on Devontae Cacok who already has two double-doubles in two games played.  And then there is also Denzel Ingram who averaged over 12 points per game last year and almost had a double-double against Claflin with 15 points and 9 assists.  This Seahawks team is deep and talented, and if they can pick up enough non-conference wins (such as in today’s game), then win the CAA regular season title, they may just have a shot to find themselves inside the bubble, regardless of what happens in their conference tournament.

East Tennessee State also enters play today at 2-0, having rolled over Fordham and Detroit at home to start the season.  TJ Cromer has led the way so far this year.  He scored 16 points against Fordham and followed that up with 27 points against Detroit.  The Buccaneers, who are working a handful of transfers into the rotation, are talented enough to be a serious challenge to preseason favorite Chattanooga in the SoCon.  If they can pick up the very tough road win today, they will certainly send the message that they intend to be a force to be reckoned with this season.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Nov 20th

Posted on November 20, 2016 by David Griggs

Below is a rundown of all of today’s action:

-Saint Mary’s got off to a hot start against Dayton on the road yesterday and threatened to run away with the game. They led by as much as 20 points in the 2nd half before Dayton mounted a furious comeback to cut the deficit to 2 in the last minute of the game. They had a chance to tie the game with under 20 seconds to play, but an offensive foul ended the Flyers’ hopes and Saint Mary’s got a critical 61-57 win at UD Arena.

-Texas Southern got another road win for the SWAC last night; they were able to get a game-winning 3-pt shot to pull off a 77-76 win at La Salle. Could this be the year that Mike Davis’s team returns to the NCAA Tournament?

-Wagner’s win at UConn is starting to look more and more like a complete fluke. Fairfield went on the road and beat the Seahawks 70-64 in overtime. That win gives the Stags a 3-0 record to start the season.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NEW HAMPSHIRE AT WEST VIRGINIA.  The Team of the People’s quest for greatness continues!!  They’re coming off a disappointing loss, but have a tremendous opportunity today against a top 25 team in West Virginia!!  #RankUNH!!  #GoDancingOrDie!!

-ARKANSAS STATE AT CHATTANOOGA.  Both teams come into this game at 3-1.  We like Chattanooga’s tournament chances, but the margin for error is small.

-NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT HIGH POINT.  Neither team will likely be in the picture come March, but both teams come into this game with a pretty good 3-1 start.

-YALE AT VIRGINIA.  This is technically a buy game, but Yale has two fairly nice wins already.  They’re likely overmatched in this one, but we still think they’re a tournament caliber team.

-RHODE ISLAND AND DUKE (Hall of Fame Tip-Off).  Rhody picked up an impressive win against a pretty good Cincinnati team yesterday, and will face a very though Duke team that has been hit hard by injuries, especially down low.  If Duke can get healthy they’ll be one of the best teams in the country, but don’t be surprised to see them struggle in the meantime.

-PRINCETON AT LEHIGH.  Neither team has won a game yet, but Lehigh’s two losses were a missed last second shot at Xavier, and an overtime loss at Yale.  Princeton’s only loss was at BYU.  So, even though both are winless, don’t be surprised if they both end up having big seasons.

-DAVIDSON VS ARIZONA STATE (Tire Pros Invitational).  Both teams are trying to pick up their second win in this tournament and go back home with some momentum.

-EAST TENNESSEE STATE AT UNC WILMINGTON.  Both teams are unbeaten.  East Tennessee State will be one of the better teams in the SoCon along with Chattanooga, and UNCW should be one of the better teams in the Colonial, and we think they may be good enough to make the NCAAs regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.

-CINCINNATI VS PENN STATE (Hall of Fame Tip-Off).  Both teams are looking to rebound after losing their openers.

-UTEP VS MISSISSIPPI STATE (Charleston Classic).  Both teams are looking to pick up their second win in the tournament and walk out with some momentum.

-JACKSONVILLE AT SOUTH ALABAMA.  Both teams are under the radar and will likely remain there for the entire season, but as of now Jacksonville comes in at 3-1 and South Alabama is a perfect 4-0.

-CLEMSON VS OKLAHOMA (Tire Pros Invitational).  This is the third place game, and one more chance to pick up a decent win away from home.

-COLORADO STATE AT STANFORD.  Both teams are unbeaten, and although not many of us were expecting much out of either team, they’ve both looked pretty good in the few games they’ve played.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S VS OLE MISS (Paradise Jam).  Both teams are unbeaten, and although there wasn’t much expected out of either team coming into the season we’ll keep our eyes on them until they give us a reason not to.

-XAVIER VS NORTHERN IOWA (Tire Pros Invitiational).  This is the championship game.  Both teams are unbeaten, and both have knocked off some pretty good teams along the way, so it’s a good opportunity for both teams.

-WAKE FOREST AT CHARLESTON (Charleston Classic).  Both teams come into this at 3-1, and both appear to be much improved from last season.

-NORTH CAROLINA STATE VS CREIGHTON (Paradise Jam).  Creighton already has one big win this season and they can continue to add to their profile by picking up some wins away from home in this tournament.  Some of us like NC State.  Some of us don’t.  Either way, this is a huge chance for them to pick up an early statement win.

-VILLANOVA VS UCF (Charleston Classic).  Both teams have pretty much rolled through this tournament, and through the rest of thier schedules so far.  We expected that from Nova, but not so much from UCF.  If UCF wins this game, they’ll go from not being talked about or thought about at all to being a huge national story.

 

BUY GAMES

-Niagara @ Rutgers
-Towson @ Maryland.  Both teams unbeaten
-The Citadel @ Iowa State
-UMES @ Wichita State
-Libpscomb @ Fordham
-Florida A&M @ Air Force
-Detroit @ Florida State
-UTRGV @ Iowa
-Hampton @ Kansas State
-Gulf Coast @ Michigan State
-Northern Arizona @ Washington
-Iona @ Nevada
-Duquesne @ Kentucky
-Long Beach State @ UCLA

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Nov 19th

Posted on November 19, 2016 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-We had some very exciting games yesterday, but nothing too cataclysmic or unexpected with a few exceptions.

-Last year at this time, we felt that Andy Enfield was on the hot seat at USC.  The Trojans had been bad for several  years in a row and showed no signs of coming out of it.  They had a fantastic year last year and surprised just about all of us.  They came into this year, and because of what they lost we again ignored them.  Well, last night they picked up a very impressive road win at Texas A&M and remain unbeaten.  They’re not a top ten team, but they’re definitely a relevant team.  That was an NCAA Tournament caliber win that they picked up yesterday.

-After struggling against Missouri and causing all of us to question how good they actually were, Xavier looked impressive against Clemson yesterday.  They’ll face a Northern Iowa team in the finals of what used to be called the Puerto Rico Tip-Off that has been somewhat surprising this year.  They overcame an 18 point deficit to beat Oklahoma in overtime yesterday.

-UCF doesn’t have anything on paper that makes you jump up and down just yet, but if you watch this team play you’ll see that on the court they are very good.  They’ve blown through their schedule so far and advanced to the finals of the Charleston Classic where they will face Villanova tomorrow.  Now, if they pick up THAT win, then they’ll have the attention of the nation.

-Purdue also came into their game against Georgia State with a hangover from their loss to Villanova earlier this week. They were trailing the Panthers 56-44 with 7:08 remaining in the game, but they held Georgia State scoreless the rest of the way and scored the final 20 points of the game en route to a 64-56 victory. This was a nonbracketed game that is part of the upcoming Cancun Challenge, although both teams are in separate brackets (Georgia State in the Mayan division, Purdue in the Riviera division).

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-PENN STATE VS DUKE (Hall of Fame Tip-Off).  This event features one national title contender, two ranked teams, and Penn State.  Okay!!  I guess it’s a chance for Penn State to really make some noise and catapult themselves onto the scene, but in reality you can probably just skip this game.

-SAINT MARY’S AT DAYTON.  This is one of the better games of the day.  Dayton already has a notable road win against Alabama, and SMC is facing their first big road test.  They do have an impressive and decisive home win against Nevada.  It will be interesting to see how these two fare against each other.

-LAMAR AT FRESNO STATE.  Lamar has a win at Oregon State and can improve to 3-0 with a win today.

-CINCINNATI VS RHODE ISLAND (Hall of Fame Tip-Off).  Both these teams are in the rankings, both are getting their first real test of the season and have a chance to pick up a quality win away from home, and the winner will most likely face Duke tomorrow.

-PENN AT MIAMI FL.  Both teams unbeaten.

-GREEN BAY AT MURRAY STATE.  Murray State is a team to watch.  They have a win over a very good Illinois State team, and their loss was on the road against a good Middle Tennessee team.

-TOLEDO AT WRIGHT STATE.  A win for Wright State gets them to 3-0, but they’ll be tested today.

-TENNESSEE STATE AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  Both teams are under the radar, but both are unbeaten and have looked really good up to this point.  It’s underexposed, but it really is one of the more intriguing games of the day.

-WESTERN KENTUCKY AT BELMONT.  See Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day

-CHATTANOOGA VS CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  Chattanooga already has a win at Tennessee and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up their second road win of the season today.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT WYOMING.  I don’t know how long Wyoming will be able to stay in the picture, but they are unbeaten and already have a win against a pretty respectable Montana team, so we’ll keep our eyes on them until they give us a reason not to.

 

BUY GAMES

-Savannah State @ Memphis
-Bucknell @ Butler
-Eastern Kentucky @ Texas Tech
-Liberty @ Indiana
-VMI @ Virginia Tech
-Louisiana Tech at Nebraska
-Idaho State @ Utah State
-Coastal Carolina @ BYU

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Western Kentucky at Belmont

Posted on November 19, 2016 by Chad

Western Kentucky at Belmont, 8:00 PM Eastern, ovcsports.com

The Under the Radar Game of the Day heads to Nashville, Tennessee this evening for a non-conference matchup between Western Kentucky, out of Conference USA, and Belmont, out of the Ohio Valley Conference.  Head coach Rick Standbury’s visiting Hilltoppers enter play tonight a perfect 2-0 on the season, having scored home wins over Alabama State and Jacksonville State.  His team has been led so far by a trio of transfers, Que Johnson from Washington State, Junior Lomomba from Providence and Pancake Thomas from Hartford.  All three have hit double digits at least once so far, and when combined with top returnee Justin Johnson (17 point and 10 boards last time out), have helped form a very solid core group of players for the Hilltoppers.

WKU will certainly be tested tonight in their first road game as Rick Byrd’s Belmont team was our preseason pick to win the Ohio Valley Conference.  The Bruins have only played one game so far this season, falling at Vanderbilt 80-66.  Evan Bradds led the way for the Bruins in their loss, scoring 19 points while pulling down 8 rebounds.  Amanze Egekeze added 18 points and Austin Luke dished out 6 assists in the losing effort as well.  Despite the 14 point loss, Belmont actually outscored Vanderbilt in the second half of the game and should be ready tonight for the Hilltoppers in what could be one of the best games on this evening’s entire college basketball schedule.

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