Below is our most recent Bracket Projections, and I know it looks crazy. This is not a forecast of the future, but rather a CHECKPOINT of CURRENT MERIT. It is not even a reflection of how good I think the teams currently are, but merely what they’ve done on the court. Nothing more, nothing less.
I believe teams like Louisville, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Wichita State, and Iowa State are much better than where they fall on the seed list, but again, I’m not evaluating how good I think the teams are or will end up being. I’m only assessing what they have done up to this point, and if a team has done nothing more than win buy games at home, then they will not be high in the rankings.
Conversely, while I’m impressed with what teams like Arkansas State, Ohio U, and Tennessee State have done up to this point, I do not believe they will end up on the #5 line when March gets here. If you want predictions of what people think things will look like in March then this is not your bracket. This is merely a checkpoint of current merit. The reason I do it this way is because, well, I like doing it this way, and because it allows me to better evaluate the teams as the season progresses.
Another oddity that only bracket junkies will pick up on is that we have First Four games on the #15 line. Well, that’s just how it worked out. It’s early. It’s the equivalent of an April batting average. Things look kind of odd right now.
Below is the seed list and the notes on each team. Below that is the bracket.
1. VILLANOVA. 5-0. Wins @ Purdue and vs UCF
2. INDIANA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Kansas
3. KANSAS. 2-1. Win vs Duke
4. DUKE. 4-1. No bad losses. Win against Rhode Island
5. SAINT MARY’S. 3-0. Road win @ Dayton, home win vs Nevada
6. Michigan. 4-0 with convincing neutral floor wins vs Marquette and SMU
7. KENTUCKY. 4-0. Blowout neutral win vs Michigan State
8. Creighton. 4-0, home win vs Wisconsin, neutral win vs NC State
9. ARIZONA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Michigan State
10. Xavier. 5-0. Neutral floor wins vs Clemson and Northern Iowa
11. RHODE ISLAND. 3-1, neutral win vs Cincinnati
12. Baylor. 3-0. Home win vs Oregon
13. Virginia. 3-0. Blowout home win v Yale, road win @ UNCG
14. North Carolina. 4-0. 2 road wins
15. Usc. 3-0. Win @ Texas A&M
16. DAYTON. 2-1. Win @ Alabama
17. Seton Hall. 3-0, win @ Iowa
18. SMU. 3-1. Neutral win vs Pitt
19. OHIO. 3-0. Win @ Georgia Tech and blowout win against Sam Houston.
20. ARKANSAS STATE. 3-1. All road/neutral wins. @ Georgetown, vs Chattanooga
21. TENNESSEE STATE. 4-0. All wins coming away from home, including @ Middle Tennessee
22. NORTHERN IOWA. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Arizona State and Oklahoma
23. Oklahoma. 3-1. Neutral win vs Clemson
24. Clemson. 2-2. Home win vs Georgia, neutral win vs Davidson
25. YALE. 2-1. Win @ Washington
26. UTAH STATE. 3-0. Win @ UC Irvine
27. Oregon. 2-1. Most notable win is home v Valpo
28. NORTH DAKOTA STATE. 3-1. 2 road/neutral wins
29. UNC WILMINGTON. 2-0. Nice wins at Eastern Kentucky and home vs ETSU
30. Syracuse. 3-0. All home buy games, but a nice win against Monmouth
31. Gonzaga. 3-0, best win is at home vs San Diego State
32. OLD DOMINION. 2-0. Win @ Richmond
33. Florida. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Saint Bonaventure
34. Louisville. 3-0. All home buy games
35. Wisconsin. 2-1 with 2 home buy wins
36. Purdue. 2-1, two home buy wins
37. West Virginia. 3-0, all home buy games
38. Miami FL. 3-0, all home buy games
39. Ucla. 4-0, all home buy wins
40. Cincinnati. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Penn State
41. Butler. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Northwestern
42. Maryland. 4-0. Best win is home vs Georgetown
43. Florida State. 4-0, all home buy games. Best wins vs Iona and Winthrop
44. Michigan State. 2-2. No bad losses, but only has 2 home buy wins
45. Pittsburgh. 3-1. Neutral win vs Marquette
46. Byu. 3-0, home win vs Princeton
47. Marquette. 2-2, best win vs Vanderbilt
48. Wake Forest. 4-1. Road win @ Charleston, neutral win vs UTEP
49. Davidson. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Missouri and Arizona State
50. Mississippi. 4-0. Neutral wins vs Saint Joe’s and Oral Roberts
51. Wichita State. 4-0, but opponents are a combined 1-12
52. CHATTANOOGA. 2-2. Win @ Tennessee, loss vs Arkansas State
53. Iowa State. 3-0, all home buy wins
54. UNC ASHEVILLE. 2-2. Neutral win vs Siena
55. FAIRFIELD. 3-0. 2 road wins, one @ Wagner
56. ALBANY. 2-2. Win at Penn State
57. Ohio State. 3-0, win @ Navy
58. South Carolina. 4-0, home win vs Monmouth
59. Texas A&M. 2-1, both home buy wins
60. Notre Dame. 3-0, all home buy wins
61. Vcu. 3-0, all home buy wins
62. Virginia Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
63. Texas. 3-0, all home buy wins
64. Colorado. 3-0, all home buy wins
65. Iowa. 3-1, all wins are home buy games
66. Georgia. 2-1, 2 home buy wins
67. Texas Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
68. Kansas State. 3-0, all home buy wins
69. California. 2-0, all home buy wins
70. Oklahoma State. 3-0. All home buy wins
71. Arkansas. 3-0, all home buy wins
72. UC IRVINE. 2-2 with no bad losses.
73. TEXAS SOUTHERN. 3-1, all road wins
74. JACKSONVILLE. 3 wins away from home
75. NC State. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Montana
76. Illinois. 4-0. All home buy wins
77. Minnesota. 4-0. Best win is home vs Saint John’s
78. Nebraska. 3-0. All home buy wins
79. New Mexico. 3-0. Best win at home vs New Mexico State
80. Utah. 3-0, just one div1 win
81. San Diego State. Just 1 div1 win, and it’s a home buy game
82. UMKC. 3-1. Neutral win vs Murray State
83. Lsu. 3-0. All home buy wins
84. WRIGHT STATE. 2-1. We still like Valpo, but they’ve yet to beat a team that’s won a game
85. BOSTON U. 3-1
86. SAM HOUSTON STATE. 2-1
87. LONG ISLAND. 2-2
88. MONTANA STATE. 2 wins, both against winless teams
89. NC CENTRAL. 2-2
News, Notes and Higlighted Games: Monday, Nov 21st
NEWS AND NOTES
Happy Feast Week! Thanksgiving is traditionally synonymous with football, but there are actually more college basketball games this week, and probably more important games that end up impacting how the season shapes out, then any other week of the season.
We will see a lot of exempt tournaments this week. The one thing I would impress upon everything is that third place games and fifth place games are not weighed any less than if those two teams were playing in a regular OOC neutral floor game. Games are games. If a team picks up a quality win in a fifth place game, it’s the same as doing it as if it were on a neutral site in a non-tournament game.
CLICK HERE for our latest and admittedly way too early Bracket Projections
CLICK HERE for Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-WOFFORD VS VERMONT (Gulf Coast Showcase). A win gets Vermont out to an impressive and attention grabbing 4-1 start.
-TENNESSEE VS WISCONSIN (Maui Invitational). We think Wisconsin is a top ten caliber team, but up to this point their only wins have been home buy wins. Doing well in this tournament will give their profile some high quality wins.
-LOYOLA CHICAGO VS WASHINGTON STATE (Paradise Jam – 5th place game). Both teams come into this game with just one loss, and have a chance to add another neutral floor win to their profiles.
-GREEN BAY VS UMKC. We didn’t expect much out of UMKC this year, but they come into this game with just one loss, and they’re beginning to grab our attention.
-GEORGETOWN VS OREGON (Maui Invitational). Oregon is a Final Four caliber team, but as of now their best win is at home against Valpo. They can really add to their profile if they do well in this tournament. They face a Georgetown team that
sucksappears to be spiraling out of control.-KENT STATE VS SOUTH DAKOTA (Gulf Coast Showcase). Both teams are unbeaten, and Kent State is a potential bubble crasher that we have our eyes on.
-ILLINOIS STATE AT TCU. We like Illinois State this year despite their early loss to Murray State. They have a chance to pick up what may be turn out to be a decent road win against a 3-0 TCU team.
-SAINT JOSEPH’S VS. NC STATE (Paradise Jam – 3rd place game). Both teams are coming off losses and looking to add a possible notable neutral floor win to their profiles.
-BELMONT VS FLORIDA (game in Tampa). Belmont is always tough, but we have some questions about them this year. If they can pull off a win in this game, our questions will probably be answered.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON VS GEORGIA (Hall of Fame Classic, Kansas City). After a roller coaster of an offseason, GW is out to a 3-0 start and they have a chance to pick up a notable neutral floor win today against a pretty good Georgia team. The winner will most likely face Kansas, and the loser will most likely face UAB.
-NOTRE DAME VS COLORADO (Legends Classic). Both teams are unbeaten and both are fighting for a place on the college basketball map. Neither team has done much other than win buy games up to this point.
-MONTANA STATE VS RICE (Hardwood Showcase, Houston). Both teams come in with decent records, so this one is worth keeping an eye on.
-CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS PEPPERDINE (Lone Star Showcase). Neither team has any notable wins yet, but both come in at 3-0.
-OLE MISS VS CREIGHTON (Paradise Jam – Championship). Both teams are unbeaten, and Creighton has managed to rack up some pretty good wins already. Ole Miss is still flying low on the radar, but a win in this one will put them on the national scene.
-OKLAHOMA STATE VS UCONN (Maui Invitational). Oklahoma State hasn’t knocked off any heavyweights yet, but they do come into this unbeaten. UConn has played three lightweights, lost to two of them, and barely beaten the other one. They need some wins in this tournament just to get things turned around.
-TEXAS VS NORTHWESTERN (Legends Classic). Texas is unbeaten so far, but has only played buy games. This is their first real test against a Northwestern team who’s only loss was a close one at Butler
-SAINT LOUIS VS BYU (MGM Grand Main Event). BYU looks to remain unbeaten.
-UAB VS KANSAS (Hall of Fame Classic, Kansas City). UAB looked pretty good in their last game despite losing a key player for the season to an injury, but they look to be way overmatched in this one.
-UC DAVIS VS SACRAMENTO STATE. Both Sacramento-area teams are playing each other in the inaugural collegiate basketball game in Sacramento’s Golden 1 Center. UC-Davis picked up 2 wins in the Cable Car Classic plus a non-DI win; the Hornets have a pair of losses against
Big 12 powersColorado and Nebraska along with a non-DI win of their own.-CALIFORNIA VS SAN DIEGO STATE. This is a good OOC game that both teams could use since neither has done anything other than win buy games yet. This is the second game of a doubleheader that is being played in Sacramento’s brand new Golden 1 Center.
-GEORGE MASON VS HOUSTON (Gulf Coast Showcase). Kind of an oddity that the only two teams from major conferences face each other in the opening round. Then again, it’s easy to see why the puppet thought this was a buy game – George Mason appears to be mismatched against a Houston team that should be favored to win this tournament.
-NORTH CAROLINA VS CHAMINADE (Non D-I – Maui Invitational). This will likely be the biggest mismatch of the tournament, and perhaps of the entire week.
-VALPARAISO VS ALABAMA (MGM Grand Main Event). Valpo is good, but they really need a good win on their profile and this is one of the few chances they have to get one. It’s a winnable game against a decent Alabama team that they really need to win.
BUY GAMES
-Western Carolina @ Ohio State
-Winthrop @ Illinois. Watch out for Winthrop, who is one of the bettter teams in the Big South
-Norfolk State @ Butler (nonbracketed game – Las Vegas Invitational)
-Bucknell @ Vanderbilt (nonbracketed game – Las Vegas Invitational)
-Northern Colorado @ Arizona (nonbracketed game – Las Vegas Invitational)