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AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Heartbreak.  That is the only word that can describe what Mick Cronin’s Cincinnati Bearcats experienced in their final two games of the 2015-16 season.  Pure and simple heartbreak.  First, in the quarterfinals of the AAC tournament, they fell in 4 overtimes to UConn, in part due to a game-tying 70-foot bank-shot by Jalen Adams at the end of the third overtime that was one of the top highlights of Championship Week.  And, as if that was not bad enough, they then fell in the Round of 64 to St. Joseph’s, 78-76, when Octavius Ellis’ dunk at the buzzer to tie the game was shown on replay to have come mere tenths of a second too late.  Nothing but heartbreak in Cincinnati – followed by a long offseason waiting for a new year to start, and another chance to go after a conference title and a trip to the Big Dance.

In all, the American put four teams in the NCAA Tournament last year, as UConn, Temple and Tulsa (in the most controversial pick by last year’s committee) all danced as well.  Only UConn was able to pick up a win, and even the Huskies did not get past the first weekend.  That could change this year as the top two teams, Cincinnati and Connecticut, both appear to have enough pieces to make a run past the tournament’s first weekend.  Beyond those top two, however, there may be a noticeable drop-off.  Houston, the only other postseason invitee last year (NIT), continues to build under Kelvin Sampson, while SMU, Memphis, Central Florida and Tulane all welcome in new head coaches.  Temple enters the season with some serious injury problems already plaguing the team, but it is almost impossible to count out Fran Dunphy’s squad.  A potential dark-horse to keep an eye on is East Carolina, as Jeff Lebo may be in a do-or-die season for his coaching career in Greenville.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Connecticut – If Rodney Purvis and Amida Brimah can become this team’s leaders, a very strong recruiting group (which has already dubbed itself the “Top Five”), led by Alterique Gilbert, can make the Huskies very dangerous. Keep an eye on VCU transfer Terry Larrier as well.

2. Cincinnati – Troy Caupain and Gary Clark are back to lead the way for a team seeking to recover from the way last year ended.  North Carolina State transfer Kyle Washington has a chance to become a huge factor for this team.  If players like Jacob Evans III and Kevin Johnson can improve their scoring averages from last year, the rest of the conference could be in trouble.

3. Houston – Kelvin Sampson continues to build this team, with the likes of Damyean Dotson, Rob Gray Jr. and Galen Robinson Jr. forming a very strong backcourt.  The bigger question marks will be down low, where the Cougars will be hoping Danrad “Chicken” Knowles improves and some JUCO transfers can make an immediate impact.

4. SMU – Larry Brown is gone (some may say thankfully), as are Nic Moore, Markus Kennedy and Jordan Tolbert.  However, the cupboard is not bare for new head coach Tim Jankovich with the likes of Ben Moore down low and Shake Milton and Sterling Brown in the backcourt.  A repeat of last year’s 25 wins may be unlikely, but the team is postseason eligible again and should find its way at least into the NIT.

5. Memphis – Even though four of their top players from last year are gone, the Tigers do bring back Dedric Lawson, along with his brother K.J.  Those two alone could be enough to keep Memphis in the game most nights.  They have also significantly (in our opinions at least) upgraded on the bench as Josh Pastner has been replaced by Tubby Smith – a coach good enough to make this program nationally relevant very quickly.

6. Temple – With Obi Enechionyia leading the way, this Owls team looks on paper good enough to return to the Big Dance – that is until you factor in injuried to both Josh Brown (torn Achilles) and Trey Lowe (auto accident back in March).  Brown is still hoping to play this year but Lowe is taking a redshirt.  Without them, Fran Dunphy’s Owls may be in for a long year.

7. East Carolina – If the Pirates can stay healthy this year, they could be the league’s surprise team.  Jeff Lebo’s squad is led by B.J. Tyson and Caleb White in the backcourt, plus keep an eye on sophomore standout Kentrell Barkley.

8. UCF – Johnny Dawkins has a chance to build this program, and already has a few key pieces in place.  The biggest of those (literally) is 7-6, 300 pound monster Tacko Fall.  B.J. Taylor also returns at guard, after having missed all of last season with an injury.  Although Taylor and Fall will make a nice inside-outside pairing, the rest of the pieces will take some time to come into place.

9. South Florida – It looks like another long season for South Florida with 5 key players gone from last year’s 8 win team and off-court scandals slamming into the program.  One player who should excel this year is sophomore Jahmal McMurray, a great shooter who can light things up from long range.

10. Tulsa – Seven of the top eight scorers from last year’s team are gone.  Senior Pat Birt is a very good three-point shooter, but the younger players will need to step up if this team wants to have any success at all this year.

11. Tulane – Perhaps the biggest question mark is how veteran NBA coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. will do coaching at the college level.  In terms of the players, Malik Morgan returns after averaging over 12 points per game last year, but he is the only one of the top scorers back from last year’s 12 win team.  All signs point to a long first season for Dunleavy.