2016 Bracketing Rules Analysis

I went ahead and took the Master Seed List and applied the Bracketing Rules to it to see what the Committee did right and what they did wrong.  Here are the results:

1. The obvious first one is the decision to place Kansas in the South when the school is closer to Chicago.  This could have been done to give 2 seed Michigan State the chance to go to Chicago, but it also resulted in Virginia (a 1 seed) having to go to Chicago which is further than Louisville.  It makes no sense.

2. Next up, Villanova was #7 overall and could have been placed in Philadelphia.  The Rules say they should have done this as it was a permissible site.  Yet the committee shipped the Wildcats to Louisville and gave Xavier (#8 overall) Philadelphia.  It should be noted that Xavier is within a fairly easy bus ride of Louisville and will have to fly to Philly.  It made no sense unless the committee didn’t know its own rules and thought Villanova was not allowed to play in Philly.

3. The top 16 seeds were all sent to the appropriate first round sites. I have no complaints there.

4. Iowa was above Oregon State as the third of four 7 line teams.  Iowa is closer by a few hundred miles to Oklahoma City than Brooklyn, yet they were sent to Brooklyn.  Oregon State is almost 1000 miles more to Brooklyn than Oklahoma City so this flip makes sense as neither school was within driving distance of their site and it prevents Oregon State from having to travel all the way across the country.

5. While it made sense on the 7 line, the committee then did the exact opposite on the 8 line.  It is actually about 100 miles closer for Texas Tech to go to Spokane than to Raleigh (though each is a long flight).  However, Texas Tech was sent to Raleigh and Saint Joe’s was shipped to Spokane.  Going by travel distances, those teams should have been flipped to begin with, and going by whatever logic they used on the 7 line, they certainly should have been flipped.  Poor St Joe’s — another Philly team screwed over it seems.

6. The 10 line sees Syracuse and Dayton playing a rematch of a 2014 tournament game which is supposed to be avoided if possible.  I consider this a very soft rule and there were matchup problems on the 10 line anyhow as 7 seed Wisconsin played 10 seeds VCU, Syracuse and Temple all in the regular season, meaning that Pitt had to be their opponent.  Dayton and VCU also could not be matched up because they are in the same conference.  I am more than ok with allowing this game to happen.

7. Placing the 11 seed First Four games was tricky because Wichita State played Tulsa in the regular season as well as 6 seed Seton Hall.  They also played 6 seed Notre Dame in last year’s tournament.  The committee actually got it right by flipping Michigan and Wichita State and sending them to the regions that were chosen.

In all, I have less complaints about the bracketing overall than I did last year, but the things done on the 1 and 2 lines still make no sense, and I really think St. Joe’s got screwed.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Middle Tennessee assistant coach Win Case

If winning is the key in March then there is no assistant coach I would rather have on my sideline then Win Case.  On Saturday the Blue Raiders got a 2-PT win over Old Dominion in the C-USA tourney title game to earn an automatic bid to this week’s NCAA tournament.  Coach Case joined the Middle Tennessee staff 6 years ago and this marks his 4th trip to the postseason in the past 5 years.  Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Coach Case about his old teammate Bill Self and what it took to win 4 NAIA titles in a 6-year span from 1991-1996.

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You played 2 years at Oklahoma State: what was current Kansas coach Bill Self like as a teammate back in the day, and could you have ever imagined that he would win a dozen straight Big 12 titles? We always knew that he was destined for greatness because he was like a coach out on the floor. He always wanted to be a coach and was a student of the game who could break down film. That was his passion/calling even back then.

You won 2 NAIA titles as an assistant and 2 more as a head coach at Oklahoma City University from 1991-1996: how were you able to be so dominant, and what is the secret to winning a title? More than anything you need really good talent. We had some really good players come through, and then you need them to play defense and rebound. You also need them to play together for 1 cause.

Your son Jeremy won the 2008 NCAA title at Kansas: who is the best athlete in the family? His mom Rita! I tell people that all the time and we would even discuss it at the dinner table. She was a great college basketball player and her whole family also played basketball.

You have spent the past 6 years as an assistant to Coach Kermit Davis, who is the winningest coach in school history: what makes him such a good coach, and how do you like working for him? I love working for him. I thought that I knew a lot about basketball before I got here but I have never seen my boss take a day off from having practice and making the program better. He can get the most out of his talent better than any other coach in the country. He does not take anything for granted: even if we miss shots we will always play with effort/energy. I talked to Bill Self before taking the job and he said that Kermit was 1 of the best coaches out there and that I needed to take the leap of faith. I will never forget that call and I am glad that I took the job.

Last March your team lost to Kent State in the CIT: what did your team learn from that game that can help you in the postseason this year? Our team was a little beat up at the time but I think that disappointment motivated us: Coach preaches that adversity can be good for you. Our guys realized that we had to get better if we wanted to make the jump: from weightlifting to more shooting to having a better focus.

You played several fellow tourney teams in non-conference action this season including UNC Asheville/VCU/South Dakota State: which of these teams impressed you the most? Looking back on it I would have to say Asheville. We won the game by 2 PTS but we knew afterwards that the Bulldogs could make the NCAA tourney. They play hard and are well coached: I would not be surprised if they win a game or 2 this week.

On Saturday Reggie Upshaw scored 9 PTS including a pair of FTs with 2.9 seconds left to clinch a 2-PT win over Old Dominion en route to being named conference tourney MVP: did you think he was going to make the FTs, and what was the reaction like when you got back to campus? 1 of our previous games involved a Hack-A-Reggie, and he just got back in the gym and kept working on it until he made 10 in a row. I looked him in the eye after he got fouled on Saturday but did not say a word: when he looked back at me and nodded I knew that he was ready for that opportunity. I really thought he would make them because he had paid the price. The whole city is abuzz right now: you cannot go anywhere without having someone shake your hand and congratulate you. I just got stopped in Wal-Mart by some people who said they cannot wait until Friday!

You have only 2 players on your roster from the state of Tennessee: what is your team’s recruiting philosophy and how have you been able to get guys from so many different states? I have been in this business a long time and have people I trust who might tell me to go look at a kid. We have found some players from Memphis and Mississippi and Milwaukee. We get some recruiting reports and hear of players via word-of-mouth and then try to go all over the area: you have to be the 1st 1 there and the last 1 there. As hard as Coach Davis works at coaching he works just as hard at recruiting: he is like 1 of the assistants in that he is a tireless recruiter who does not sit back and relax because the buck stops with him.

Your team shoots 61.7 FT%, which is 5th-worst in the nation: do you fear that you might lose a close game this week due to your poor FT shooting, and as a coach is there anything you try to do besides tell them to keep practicing their FTs? Coach Davis thinks that mental toughness plays a large part in many aspects of the game: making FTs, getting a 50-50 ball, etc. We shoot FTs at the end of every single practice and if you cannot make 10 in a row then you have to come back and shoot them later.

You received a #15-seed and will be playing Michigan State in St. Louis on Friday: how are you preparing to face the Big 10 champs? Everyone is picking the Spartans to win a title…but they have to play us 1st! We are going into it with our game plan and Coach will prepare us for battle. We have to rebound the ball and guard them well, and since they will be locked in defensively we also have to find ways to score. I truly believe that we will compete and we are not going to go in scared. I am looking forward to it because in 2013 a lot of our players were just excited to be in the NCAA tourney but now they want to actually win a couple of games.

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Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Texas A&M assistant coach Rick Stansbury

Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy finished a tremendous regular season by earning a #1-seed to the SEC tourney, and even after a 5-PT OT loss to Kentucky in the SEC tourney title game earlier today his team received a #3-seed in the NCAA tourney and will face Green Bay in Oklahoma City this Friday.  After making the CBI in 2014 Kennedy hired Rick Stansbury to be 1 of his assistant coaches, who helped the Aggies sign a top-10-in-the-nation recruiting class that helped them win 26 games so far this year.  Stansbury made 6 NCAA tourneys in an 8-year stretch as head coach at Mississippi State and is a big reason that yet another SEC team is finding success. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Coach Stansbury about losing a tourney game in OT thanks to a Providence player named Billy Donovan and being named SEC COY.

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Take me through the 1987 NCAA tourney as assistant coach at Austin Peay:
Tony Raye made a pair of FTs with 2 seconds left before Ken Norman missed a 15-foot shot at the buzzer in a 1-PT win over Illinois: did you think that Norman’s shot was going in, and what was the feeling like in your locker room afterward? The Illini were a #3 seed so nobody gave us any chance to win. Illinois had a very good team and was loaded but we were tough and could really defend people. We even had a big guy who could shoot from behind the arc.

Billy Donovan had 25 PTS/7 AST in a 3-PT OT win by Providence after Bob Thomas missed a FT at the end in regulation: how devastating was that loss, and could you tell at the time that Donovan would become a star on the sideline 2 decades later at FL? We were fouled with no time on the clock with a chance to go to the Sweet 16. Providence coach Rick Pitino called a timeout but there was no real strategy for us to share at that point. I just told Thomas to make the FT and he said it was money in the bank…but he missed it. We were up late in OT with time running down when Donovan pushed off of our defender with his left hand, stepped back, and made a 3-PT shot: the rest was history. Pitino later said in his book that he might still be at Providence if we had made that FT, but he became coach of the Knicks the following season.

What are your memories of the 1995 NCAA tourney as assistant coach at Mississippi State (tourney MOP Ed O’Bannon scored 21 PTS in a win by eventual champion UCLA)? We started the tourney with an 8-PT win over Steve Nash’s Santa Clara team, followed by a 14-PT win over Keith Van Horn’s Utah team. Next up was UCLA in Oakland but Tyus Edney and the O’Bannon brothers were too talented for us.

What are your memories of the 1996 NCAA tourney (Erick Dampier had 12 PTS/14 REB/6 AST in a loss to eventual national runner-up Syracuse)? I never saw someone score over Dampier that entire season but Otis Hill did exactly that and finished with 15 PTS. We were favored to meet Kentucky in the finals in an all-SEC championship after we had blown them out in the SEC title game 2 weeks earlier, but we were not at our best.

What are your memories of the 2002 NCAA tourney (Deginald Erskin scored 17 PTS [8-9 FG] in a 4-PT win by Texas)? We played them in Dallas in the 1st year of the pod system (where teams were assigned to 1st-round sites in an effort to minimize travel). We were the higher-ranked team but you can imagine who had the most fans there. We were the poster boy for how the pod system did not work!

What are your memories of the 2003 NCAA tourney (Mario Austin had 18 PTS/10 REB but Brandon Miller made a runner in the lane with 6 seconds left in a 1-PT win by Butler)? At the time nobody knew how good Butler was. We were down by 1 PT late in the game and Winsome Frazier had an open shot but it went off the rim. Butler went on to beat Louisville before losing to Oklahoma.

In 2004 you were named SEC COY: what did it mean to you to win such an outstanding honor? When we changed offices several years ago I uncovered the trophy that had been sitting in a box. I had forgotten all about it so I polished it up and put it up in my new office. Maybe when I get older I will look back and reflect on it.

What are your memories of the 2004 NCAA tourney (Lionel Chalmers scored 31 PTS [11-13 FG] in a win by Xavier)? We finished 25-2 in the regular season and went 8-0 on the road in the SEC. Our 2 losses were at home to Kentucky/Alabama, and then we beat the Tide on the road to win the outright SEC title. I felt like we should have been a #1 seed but we got a #2. It is a fine line when you get to the NCAA tourney: we had to play a very hot Xavier team in the 2nd round. A kid we recruited named Dedrick Finn made a 60-foot shot at the halftime buzzer to take a 1-PT lead. We actually tried to bring Finn in to visit Starkville but at first he could not make it due to 9/11, and later his football schedule kept him from doing so.

What are your memories of the 2005 NCAA tourney (Shelden Williams had 13 PTS/15 REB in an 8-PT win by Duke)? We played Duke in Charlotte and they were a very good team. We had blown out Stanford by 23 PTS in the 1st round. The Duke game was close all the way but our PG had a critical turnover with a couple of minutes left.

What are your memories of the 2008 NCAA tourney (Ben Hansbrough scored 19 PTS in a 3-PT loss to eventual national runner-up Memphis, his last game before transferring to Notre Dame)? We beat Oregon in the 1st round but nobody realized that Memphis would end up playing for the title. Their center Joey Dorsey had been mainly a rebounder all year long but he scored 13 PTS (6-8 FG) against us. Barry Stewart was a great player for us but he went 1-12 from the field that night. Even so, it was still a 1-possession game until the final buzzer.

What are your memories of the 2010 SEC tourney (Eric Bledsoe scored 18 PTS in a 1-PT OT win by Kentucky)? We played the Wildcats in the SEC title game in Nashville with all of their future 1st-round draft picks (John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, etc.). We were up 3 PTS late and fouled Bledsoe with 4 seconds left. He made the 1st FT so everyone knew what was going to happen next…except the 3 people in charge on the court. Wall started at the top of the circle as Bledsoe put up a high-arcing shot, ran into the paint, and was 3 feet ahead of Bledsoe while the ball was still in the air. Wall eventually got the ball and flung up a 3-PT shot from the corner that was short.  Jarvis Varnado thought the game was over, but Cousins flicked it in at the buzzer and we ended up losing in OT. It did not just cost us the SEC title: it also cost us an NCAA bid. There are always calls that beat you here and there but rarely do they cost you a conference title/NCAA bid. I became the 1st basketball coach in SEC history to get fined for my comments about a game: $30,000!

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Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Final Version)

CLICK HERE for the Hoops HD Selection Committee’s Bracket.  Jon Teitel is guessing the actual committee, but we also built a bracket based on how we THINK things should look, not necessarily on how we WILL think it will look.  

Today is Selection Sunday, which means we only have a few minutes left to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, including 62 right on the money or within 1 spot of their actual seed. See below for his list of who he thinks will make the cut, and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To compare how we stack up with other websites, check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

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SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Kansas (Big 12) *AUTO-BID
1: North Carolina (ACC) *AUTO-BID
1: Michigan State (Big 10) *AUTO-BID
1: Oregon (Pac-12) *AUTO-BID

2: Virginia (ACC)
2: Villanova (Big East)
2: Oklahoma (Big 12)
2: West Virginia (Big 12)

3: Xavier (Big East)
3: Miami Florida (ACC)
3: Utah (Pac-12)
3: Kentucky (SEC) *AUTO-BID

4: Texas A&M (SEC)
4: Indiana (Big 10)
4: Purdue (Big 10)
4: Duke (ACC)

5: Maryland (Big 10)
5: California (Pac-12)
5: Iowa State (Big 12)
5: Arizona (Pac-12)

6: Seton Hall (Big East) *AUTO-BID
6: Baylor (Big 12)
6: Texas (Big 12)
6: Notre Dame (ACC)

7: Iowa (Big 10)
7: Dayton (A-10)
7: Wisconsin (Big 10)
7: St. Joseph’s (A-10) *AUTO-BID

8: Colorado (Pac-12)
8: Providence (Big East)
8: Texas Tech (Big 12)
8: Oregon State (Pac-12)

9: Connecticut (AAC) *AUTO-BID
9: USC (Pac-12)
9: VCU (A-10)
9: Butler (Big East)

10: Cincinnati (AAC)
10: Pitt (ACC)
10: Wichita State (MVC)
10: St. Bonaventure (A-10)

11: Gonzaga (WCC) *AUTO-BID
11: St. Mary’s (WCC)
11: Temple (AAC)
11: Michigan (Big 10)
11: San Diego State (MWC)
11: Arkansas Little-Rock (Sun Belt) *AUTO-BID

12: Northern Iowa (MVC) *AUTO-BID
12: Yale (Ivy) *AUTO-BID
12: Chattanooga (SoCon) *AUTO-BID
12: South Dakota State (Summit) *AUTO-BID

13: UNC Wilmington (CAA) *AUTO-BID
13: Fresno State (MWC) *AUTO-BID
13: Stony Brook (America East) *AUTO-BID
13: Stephen F. Austin (Southland) *AUTO-BID

14: Hawaii (Big West) *AUTO-BID
14: Iona (MAAC) *AUTO-BID
14: Buffalo (MAC) *AUTO-BID
14: Middle Tennessee (CUSA) *AUTO-BID

15: Green Bay (Horizon) *AUTO-BID
15: Weber State (Big Sky) *AUTO-BID
15: CSU Bakersfield (WAC) *AUTO-BID
15: UNC Asheville (Big South) *AUTO-BID

16: Hampton (MEAC) *AUTO-BID
16: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) *AUTO-BID
16: Austin Peay (OVC) *AUTO-BID
16: Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) *AUTO-BID
16: Holy Cross (Patriot) *AUTO-BID
16: Southern (SWAC) *AUTO-BID

CONFERENCE: # OF TEAMS
AAC: 3
America East: 1
ACC: 6
Atlantic Sun: 1
A-10: 4
Big East: 5
Big Sky: 1
Big South: 1
Big 10: 7
Big 12: 7
Big West: 1
CAA: 1
CUSA: 1
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
MAAC: 1
MAC: 1
MEAC: 1
MVC: 2
MWC: 2
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pac-12: 7
Patriot: 1
SEC: 2
SoCon: 1
Southland: 1
SWAC: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 1
WCC: 2
WAC: 1

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Hoops HD Selection Committee Final Bracket

Below are our two contingency brackets depending on today’s outcomes.  We will not be moving Purdue or Michigan State.  Michigan State has already proven who they are, and beating Purdue will simply be reproving it, and losing to Purdue will not be disproving it.  We also don’t see a win getting Purdue getting up to the #3 line with a win.

This is not an attempt to guess the actual selection committee.  We simply simulated the process and picked what we think the field should look like.  JON TEITEL will be posting his final seed list, which does guess the action committee, at the conclusion of today’s games

I don’t know what the real tournament is going to look like, but I really like the way ours looks!!

 

BRACKET IF CONNECTICUT WINS

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BRACKET IF MEMPHIS WINS

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THE HOOPS HD SELECTION COMMITTEE BOARD

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Posted in Bracketology | 1 Comment

Championship Week Video Notebook: Selection Sunday, March 13th

***UPDATE***  CLICK HERE TO WATCH US BUILD THE BRACKET!

Chad, David, and John recap another very exciting day as several automatic bids were handed out.  After heartbreaking losses in previous championship games, Stony Brook finally got it done with their big home win against Vermont.  Hampton held on to win the MEAC, Southern won the SWAC, and Buffalo won the MAC for the second year in a row.  Texas A&M blasted LSU, which should end their NCAA Tournament hopes, and Kentucky held on to beat Georgia.  North Carolina picked up a huge win against Virginia to win the ACC, which should land them on the #1 line, Oregon blasted Utah to win the Pac Twelve, and Kansas knocked off West Virginia to win the Big Twelve.  Seton Hall has looked been one of the hottest teams in the nation, and that continued last night as they knocked off Villanova in a thriller to win the Big East.  We also had exciting finishes in CUSA, the WAC, and the Big West.

We recap all of the action, and update you on the Hoops HD Selection Committee, which has selected and seeded our field.

 

CLICK HERE for John Stalica’s Report on the Hoops HD Selection Committee

 

 

And for all you radio lovers, there is an mp3 version of the show at the bottom of the page…

 

AMERICAN
Championship
3:15 PM – (5) Connecticut vs (6) Memphis, ESPN

ATLANTIC TEN
Championship
12:30 PM – (2) VCU vs (4) St. Joseph’s, CBS

BIG TEN
Championship
3:00 PM – (2) Michigan State vs (4) Purdue, CBS

SEC
Championship
1:00 PM – (1) Texas A&M vs (2) Kentucky, ESPN

SUN BELT
Championship
1:00 PM – (1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs (2) UL-Monroe, ESPN2

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Championship Week Video Notebook: Selection Sunday, March 13th