For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Texas-Arlington and Georgia Southern – CLICK HERE.
Below is my personal projection for the Bracket through games of Sunday, February 19, 2017. I have also included my notes on the selections, and down below the bracket you will find comments from other staff members here at Hoops HD where they either praise or rip apart my selections.
CHAD’S NOTES
– For the first time in weeks, there is a change amongst the 1 seeds, as Baylor falls to 5th overall and the Tar Heels are now on the 1 line. I also moved Kansas over Gonzaga to #2 overall based on their huge win at Baylor (the Zags have nothing close to that good on their profile despite being undefeated).
– Not only is Duke on the 2 line now after yet another strong week (more notably by winning at Virginia than the way they beat Wake Forest), but they are #6 overall. I think there is actually a fairly large gap between the top 5 teams and the Blue Devils, but a 1 seed may actually be in the picture if they win every remaining game through the ACC Tournament championship.
– I also had the three Pac-12 schools (Arizona, Oregon and UCLA) back-to-back-to-back on my S-Curve, with Arizona still holding the edge. This is actually an important battle because the winner of it will be the only one of the three that gets to head to the West Regional.
– Virginia has been playing a killer schedule lately, but in the end you have to at least win a couple of those games. The Hoos are still among the top 16 teams — but they came in at #16 overall.
– I may get ripped for Florida being two lines below Kentucky, but I prefer UK’s overall profile and I still need to see a bit more out of Florida now that John Egbunu is out. If they keep winning without him, they will be right back up there very quickly. They have South Carolina and Arkansas at home, Kentucky and Vanderbilt on the road to finish the season, so the tests will be there.
– The bubble continues to shrink. I am fairly comfortable that everyone on my 10 line and higher belongs in the field. Michigan State on the 11 probably belongs in too, but they are a team that will now have to prove they can win without Eron Harris. Georgia Tech and Kansas State were my last two teams to avoid the First Four and both have resumes that make me want to vomit. Even then, they are better than the First Four teams (Seton Hall, TCU, Alabama and Pitt).
– Middle Tennessee was above my First Four far enough that I now believe they would get an at-large if they win out to the CUSA finals. UNC-Wilmington was in my S-Curve in the middle of the First Four teams, but that would not be enough to survive a bad loss in the CAA tournament. Texas-Arlington was my highest rated team below the First Four and with five regular season games left, including tonight’s Under the Radar Game of the Day (CLICK HERE), plus the Sun Belt tournament, has an outside shot at an at-large bid as well.
– I will be ripped for putting Alabama in. I will be ripped more for putting a Pitt team in that is 4-10 in ACC play. Yet, who else was available? The top four teams out, in order, were Texas Tech, Illinois State, Cal and Syracuse. The only other teams worth considering were Providence, Clemson, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Indiana, Rhode Island and Houston. I will take Pitt’s top wins over any of those. I will take an Alabama team that won at South Carolina and lacks any bad losses over any of those.
– I anticipate an argument being made, at least by John Stalica, that the team I should have chosen was Illinois State. I still hate their profile. Despite hating it, they only narrowly missed my field. The Redbirds’ biggest problem is a lack of quality wins and the only chance to pick one more up that they have left would be in the MVC tournament finals against Wichita State. Of course, if they win that game, they are in with an automatic bid. That being said, even though they cannot do anything to make their resume better, they will have four chances (two regular season games and the first two rounds of the MVC tournament) to make it worse. Just one more bad mark would be devastating. They have a shot still, but they better win the next four and hope that the rest of the bubble continues to implode around them.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-We need to send some sort of search party out for Chad’s mind, because he has clearly lost it!
-Okay, the number of things that I strongly disagree with is actually a low number. But the things I do disagree with are so over the top crazy that it offsets the fact that there aren’t that many of them. But, we’ll get to that later. Let’s start with some of his outlying picks that I may not entirely agree with, but that I don’t find to be too insane either.
-Alabama may appear to be a strange pick. But, I am actually able to swallow it. I gag on it as it’s going down, but I’m able to swallow it. They do have a very nice win at South Carolina, and they’ve pretty much held serve other than that. They do have a loss at Texas, but that loss came prior to Tevin Mack being suspended, and I think they’d be at least an NIT caliber team if Mack was still playing. Now, winning one big game and holding serve outside of that isn’t much of a profile, but it is at least something, and we’ve seen teams get in with profiles like that before. And, as he points out, a lot of the teams around them haven’t done much either.
-I don’t agree that Gonzaga should be any lower than the #1 overall. Having said that, they do not have the paper. So, if you want to make them the #1 overall you have to do it by means of “reasonable supposition.” Chad is a lawyer. He will almost never deploy that line of thinking. But, it is reasonable. Gonzaga hasn’t had as many tough tests as Kansas and Villanova, but they have had a few, and they’ve passed every one of them. I think they’ve done enough to demonstrate that they are the best team. They’ve beaten four teams away from home that will be wearing white in the Round of 64, and they haven’t lost to anyone.
-Well, maybe Chad does deploy “reasonable supposition” after all. Wisconsin is on his #3 line. I like this Badger team, but I’m having to use my imagination just to get them onto the #4 line as a protected seed. He has them all the way up on the #3 line despite their best win being at Minnesota, and their second best win being against Tennessee on a neutral floor, who isn’t even a tournament team. I know they have a home win against Michigan, but everyone who’s played Michigan at home (with one exception) has beaten Michigan, so I can’t really call that a “quality win.” If anything I now have an easier time making a case for Purdue, who has an equal conference record, but also has wins at Maryland and against Notre Dame. And at Michigan State. Oh yea, and also against Wisconsin. In fact putting Wisconsin that high isn’t “reasonable” at all. I’m not sure what it is.
-Chad now has Arkansas on his #9 line. I just want to say that I’m impressed with how Arkansas has played lately, and the way I remember it I’ve been rather impressed with them all season long while people like Chad were doubting them.
-If you go with results, and wins, and what’s on paper, then you like the Georgia Tech pick. I like the Georgia Tech pick, at least when compared to other teams that were left out. Winning games is what counts in conference standings. You advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament by winning the game. So, when I evaluate teams, I look at what games they’ve won and how hard those games were to win. Georgia Tech has won more games that were hard to win than most of the rest of the bubble. Their RPI could be better. Their power ratings are lousy. But, they have wins, and wins are what matters. It’s why you play the game according to….some former NFL coach (who’s name I honestly can’t remember, but the soundbyte is legendary. And correct). (It was Herm Edwards. – John S)
-Now let’s look at the pick that makes me think Chad might have lead in his house. Pittsburgh. Categorically speaking when a team is 4 games below .500 in league play they are not making it. It’s only happened once in the entire history of Planet Earth. Pitt is SIX games below .500!! Now, they did win at Maryland, but that was an anomaly. That is offset by losses to NC State and Duquesne. DUQUESNE!!! The best thing you can say about them is that they’ve lost to a lot of good teams. Well, there are many teams in the SWAC that did the same thing in November and December and we don’t see them on the list. When you compare them to, say, Syracuse, who is four-and-a-half games ahead of them in the standings, I can’t help but think they’re the better pick.
-I get why Chad doesn’t like Illinois State. They don’t have all those losses to good teams that Pitt has!!
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I’ll start at the 3-line since I don’t really take umbrage to what’s listed on the Top 2 lines. If you’re going to be this high like Kentucky is, I’d better see more quality wins than just North Carolina and South Carolina (at least in terms of first-ballot teams). I’d argue that both Florida State and West Virginia (even with recent hiccups) belong up here as opposed to UK and Wisconsin. The Badgers can wind up as high as a 3 if they win the Big Ten, but if I really had to argue for a B1G team up here, I’ll take Purdue for now.
– With Virginia only a couple of games above .500, I’m more tempted to have them as my top 5 seed for the time being. Sweeping Louisville helps, but splitting with Virginia Tech and losing to bubbilicious teams like Pitt and Syracuse makes it more difficult to justify a protected seed for now.
– For selfish reasons, I think USC is a seed line too low (even with a bloated record) and Dayton a seed line too high. Do a 3-way switch with Michigan and we’ll have a great rivalry in Greenville where Carolina fans can pick sides as to whether or not they’re Xavier fans or Dayton fans. Xavier fans are not quite as eager to claim the birthplace of aviation like Dayton fans are, so I for one recognize who is truly first in flight here. (End of Bill Waltonesque rant.)
– My two cents on Pittsburgh – recent wins against Florida State and Syracuse are nice, but I would have entertained a bubble pick like this 2 weeks later (as opposed to now when they’re 4-10). Couldn’t you at least have beaten Clemson at home and put them out of their misery once and for all? I’m holding Pitt responsible for all the fools who still think Clemson is an NCAA Tournament team.
– And yes, I do think Chad is rushing to exclude Illinois State from the field. I concede that the paper does not look as pretty, and I hate to acknowledge this, but we already know what teams like Georgia Tech, Pitt and Alabama are. If I were a fellow bubbler, I’d rather play a team like them (i.e. Tulsa or Vandy from last year) as opposed to Illinois State this year (or Wichita State from last year). I agree that an outright 2nd-place Illinois State team in the Valley would not be an at-large caliber team, but I strongly believe that a 1st-place finisher in the Valley (especially if they reach their championship game) deserves a First Four spot over other bubble teams.
– As far as auto-bid leagues go, I’d love to hear Chad’s rationale for South Dakota being picked over North Dakota State. Both teams split head-to-head, so is he anticipating that the Coyotes would win the Summit thanks to home-court advantage in the conference tournament?
REPLIES FROM CHAD
– I will let everything above stand with two exceptions. First, as to David’s point on Pittsburgh — my computer screen was not big enough to hold all their losses so the Duquesne game got cut off. I anticipate that my monitor is the same size as the real committee’s, so that loss simply does not count. But seriously, they were chosen not based on what they have done good, but based on everyone else just being even worse. They probably have to win 3 of their last 4 ACC games, and two of those are against North Carolina and Virginia, and pick up at least two ACC Tournament wins.
– Since John asked me about the Summit League, I do like NDSU’s overall profile slightly better, but (1) the conference tournament is in Sioux Falls and (2) the Bison have been playing absolutely awful the last few weeks including needing double overtime this past weekend to beat Western Illinois (ranked 295 at KenPom) at home. The Coyotes have won four straight including a win at North Dakota State and right now are my pick to win that conference tournament. I don’t think the Bison are playing well enough to even make the tourney finals.
– Actually, one more point. You both missed it!!! No comments at all on my South Region 6-11 game. Epic fails.
Puppet Ramblings: Five Very Good Under the Radar Resumes
I don’t editorialize all that often, but when I do, it is awesome!!
Tonight is our final Under the Radar Podcast of the season. We will discuss each conference like we always do, go over the conference tournament formats for all 23 UTR leagues, probably make a prediction on the winner, and assess what each team has remaining. By no means are we going away after that. It’s just that conference tournaments begin this upcoming Monday, so every night beginning this Sunday we will be recording our Championship Week Video Notebooks.
We have closely followed these teams all year long, and we are quite familiar with them. But even though we’ve closely followed them since literally the first day of the season, I now think even we are undervaluing them. With the bubble being as weak as it is, I felt compelled to go back and look at these teams and see what kind of case could be made for them. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of merit there. Just bloated records against predominantly sub NIT caliber teams. But after looking at things a little more closely, I now believe these teams have won a significant number of games that were harder to win than what many other teams on the bubble have won.
To be more specific, if a team’s best wins are all at home against RPI top 50 teams who have losing records on the road, then I do not feel those games are any harder to win than going on the road to play a team that, while out of the RPI top 100, is still winning close to 80 percent of their home games. So, while the five teams below do not have an abundance of wins against “top 50” teams, they have won games on the road that are just as hard to win, if not more so, than it is to win against a lot of top fifty teams at home.
So, take another look. And, at least consider it. And, let’s hope that the selection committee is looking at them a little more closely than even we were just a few days ago.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (23-4)
–RPI = 32 (good)
–OOC RPI = 26 (good)
–OOC SOS = 18 (very good)
–True Road Record = 10-2. 7 of the wins came against teams with winning records at home. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss are a combined 49-8 at home in games where they haven’t played Middle Tennessee. (VERY VERY good)
–Neutral Floor Record = 3-0, including a win over 22-5 UNC Wilmington (good)
–Other Notes = 3 bad loss at Tennessee State, at UTEP, and at home to Georgia State, but the loss at UTEP came during a stretch where the Miners are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and it was at the buzzer. They also have a loss at VCU, who has lost just one home game this year.
–Conference Tournament = At a predetermined site in Birmingham, AL. They could potentially have to face UAB in a virtual road game despite being the best team in the conference (crap deal)
The OOC RPI and SOS show that they scheduled exactly the way the committee says they should. The wins on the road show that they’re capable of winning games that are hard to win. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss aren’t considered “quality teams” by most, so they’re not going to get credit for quality wins for beating them. But, if you look at it closely, you see that those teams win a lot of games at home. I would argue that it’s harder to win at Belmont or Marshall than it is to beat top fifty teams such as Michigan and TCU at home. Those two teams have won a combined total of three true road games. So, we have a first place team with a top 40 RPI with five notable wins and a top 20 OOC schedule. That beats the bubble.
TEXAS ARLINGTON (19-6)
–RPI = 34 (good)
–OOC RPI = 21 (very good)
–OOC SOS = 58 (fair)
–True Road Record = 10-6. Includes a win at Saint Mary’s who’s only other home loss has come to Gonzaga, Texas who was at full strength at the time, and Georgia State and Georgia Southern who are a combined 16-3 at home when not playing Texas Arlington (very good).
–Other Notes = 5 of the 6 losses were at Minnesota and at Arkansas who appear to be tournament teams, and Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, and Troy who are a combined 23-10 at home.
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in New Orleans. The seeding is standard and there is no advantage for the first place team. (crap deal)
They are a first place team with a top forty RPI. That almost always gets a team in. They also have also have two tough road wins against Georgia Southern and Georgia State, and another against Saint Mary’s who is a solid tournament team. If this team wins out they will have all the earmarks of an at-large team, and although they don’t have too many wins against the RPI top fifty, they’ve won games on the road that are harder to win than it is to win against a top fifty team at home with a losing road record. This beats the bubble
UNC WILMINGTON (22-5)
–RPI = 42 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 30 (good)
–OOC SOS = 109 (not so good)
–True Road Record = 11-3. 6 of the 11 teams have winning records at home. Western Michigan, Saint Bonaventure, Towson, and College of Charleston are a combined 38-8 at home when not playing UNCW (good)
–Other Notes = Of the three road games they lost, William & Mary is unbeaten at home, Clemson is 9-4, and Elon is a modest 7-3.
–Conference Tournament = Is being played at Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference and who has split with UNCW. It’s possible they’ll have to win a virtual road game in the conference championship despite being the better team. (crap deal)
Like the previous teams, they lack quality wins, but they’ve won games that are difficult to win in the sense that they’ve won on the road against teams that play very well at home. They do have two sub 100 RPI losses, but one of those was at William & Mary who is unbeaten at home, and the other was at Elon who is at least decent at home.
ILLINOIS STATE (22-5)
–RPI = 33 (good)
–OOC RPI = 87 (bad)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 8-4. 4 of the teams have winning records at home. Evansville and Loyola Chicago are a combined 20-5 at home when not playing Illinois State, and two of the other five losses are to Wichita State. (fair)
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in Saint Louis (I guess fair)
–Other Notes = -All five losses were away from home, and four were to teams with winning home records. They also have a home win against Wichita State.
Of the five teams on this list, this is the team that we at Hoops HD have been giving the most love to, and although I definitely think they are worthy of consideration and comparable to other teams on the bubble who have really just won at home against top fifty teams that are bad on the road, I don’t like them as much as Middle Tennessee, or Texas Arlington, or UNC Wilmington. While this team has a quality win and for the most part has avoided bad losses, the games they’ve won aren’t as hard to win as a lot of the games that Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, and UNC Wilmington have won. I still like them, though.
MONMOUTH (24-5)
–RPI = 46 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 35 (good)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 11-4. Three of the losses were at South Carolina, North Carolina, and Syracuse. Only 5 teams have winning records at home, but Memphis and Siena are a combined 22-5 at home when not playing Monmouth (good)
–Conference Tournament = Clinched first place in the Metro Atlantic, but the tournament is being hosted by Siena and they could have to play a virtual road game in the semifinals. (crap deal)
This isn’t the strongest profile, but it doesn’t smell any worse than some of the bubble teams from power conferences who’s best wins came at home against top fifty teams with losing road records. They do have two bad losses to Rider and Saint Peter’s, but both were on the road, and also beat both of those teams, and they completely dominated the league which demonstrates they can beat anyone in it