Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Final Version)

CLICK HERE for the Hoops HD Selection Committee’s Bracket.  Jon Teitel is guessing the actual committee, but we also built a bracket based on how we THINK things should look, not necessarily on how we WILL think it will look.  

Today is Selection Sunday, which means we only have a few minutes left to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, including 62 right on the money or within 1 spot of their actual seed. See below for his list of who he thinks will make the cut, and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To compare how we stack up with other websites, check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

68 logo

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Kansas (Big 12) *AUTO-BID
1: North Carolina (ACC) *AUTO-BID
1: Michigan State (Big 10) *AUTO-BID
1: Oregon (Pac-12) *AUTO-BID

2: Virginia (ACC)
2: Villanova (Big East)
2: Oklahoma (Big 12)
2: West Virginia (Big 12)

3: Xavier (Big East)
3: Miami Florida (ACC)
3: Utah (Pac-12)
3: Kentucky (SEC) *AUTO-BID

4: Texas A&M (SEC)
4: Indiana (Big 10)
4: Purdue (Big 10)
4: Duke (ACC)

5: Maryland (Big 10)
5: California (Pac-12)
5: Iowa State (Big 12)
5: Arizona (Pac-12)

6: Seton Hall (Big East) *AUTO-BID
6: Baylor (Big 12)
6: Texas (Big 12)
6: Notre Dame (ACC)

7: Iowa (Big 10)
7: Dayton (A-10)
7: Wisconsin (Big 10)
7: St. Joseph’s (A-10) *AUTO-BID

8: Colorado (Pac-12)
8: Providence (Big East)
8: Texas Tech (Big 12)
8: Oregon State (Pac-12)

9: Connecticut (AAC) *AUTO-BID
9: USC (Pac-12)
9: VCU (A-10)
9: Butler (Big East)

10: Cincinnati (AAC)
10: Pitt (ACC)
10: Wichita State (MVC)
10: St. Bonaventure (A-10)

11: Gonzaga (WCC) *AUTO-BID
11: St. Mary’s (WCC)
11: Temple (AAC)
11: Michigan (Big 10)
11: San Diego State (MWC)
11: Arkansas Little-Rock (Sun Belt) *AUTO-BID

12: Northern Iowa (MVC) *AUTO-BID
12: Yale (Ivy) *AUTO-BID
12: Chattanooga (SoCon) *AUTO-BID
12: South Dakota State (Summit) *AUTO-BID

13: UNC Wilmington (CAA) *AUTO-BID
13: Fresno State (MWC) *AUTO-BID
13: Stony Brook (America East) *AUTO-BID
13: Stephen F. Austin (Southland) *AUTO-BID

14: Hawaii (Big West) *AUTO-BID
14: Iona (MAAC) *AUTO-BID
14: Buffalo (MAC) *AUTO-BID
14: Middle Tennessee (CUSA) *AUTO-BID

15: Green Bay (Horizon) *AUTO-BID
15: Weber State (Big Sky) *AUTO-BID
15: CSU Bakersfield (WAC) *AUTO-BID
15: UNC Asheville (Big South) *AUTO-BID

16: Hampton (MEAC) *AUTO-BID
16: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun) *AUTO-BID
16: Austin Peay (OVC) *AUTO-BID
16: Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) *AUTO-BID
16: Holy Cross (Patriot) *AUTO-BID
16: Southern (SWAC) *AUTO-BID

CONFERENCE: # OF TEAMS
AAC: 3
America East: 1
ACC: 6
Atlantic Sun: 1
A-10: 4
Big East: 5
Big Sky: 1
Big South: 1
Big 10: 7
Big 12: 7
Big West: 1
CAA: 1
CUSA: 1
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
MAAC: 1
MAC: 1
MEAC: 1
MVC: 2
MWC: 2
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pac-12: 7
Patriot: 1
SEC: 2
SoCon: 1
Southland: 1
SWAC: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 1
WCC: 2
WAC: 1

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Final Version)

Hoops HD Selection Committee Final Bracket

Below are our two contingency brackets depending on today’s outcomes.  We will not be moving Purdue or Michigan State.  Michigan State has already proven who they are, and beating Purdue will simply be reproving it, and losing to Purdue will not be disproving it.  We also don’t see a win getting Purdue getting up to the #3 line with a win.

This is not an attempt to guess the actual selection committee.  We simply simulated the process and picked what we think the field should look like.  JON TEITEL will be posting his final seed list, which does guess the action committee, at the conclusion of today’s games

I don’t know what the real tournament is going to look like, but I really like the way ours looks!!

 

BRACKET IF CONNECTICUT WINS

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 3.38.36 PM

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 3.38.23 PM

 

 

 

BRACKET IF MEMPHIS WINS

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 3.38.36 PM

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 3.38.23 PM

 

 

THE HOOPS HD SELECTION COMMITTEE BOARD

Screen Shot 2016-03-13 at 3.14.58 PM

Posted in Bracketology | 1 Comment

Championship Week Video Notebook: Selection Sunday, March 13th

***UPDATE***  CLICK HERE TO WATCH US BUILD THE BRACKET!

Chad, David, and John recap another very exciting day as several automatic bids were handed out.  After heartbreaking losses in previous championship games, Stony Brook finally got it done with their big home win against Vermont.  Hampton held on to win the MEAC, Southern won the SWAC, and Buffalo won the MAC for the second year in a row.  Texas A&M blasted LSU, which should end their NCAA Tournament hopes, and Kentucky held on to beat Georgia.  North Carolina picked up a huge win against Virginia to win the ACC, which should land them on the #1 line, Oregon blasted Utah to win the Pac Twelve, and Kansas knocked off West Virginia to win the Big Twelve.  Seton Hall has looked been one of the hottest teams in the nation, and that continued last night as they knocked off Villanova in a thriller to win the Big East.  We also had exciting finishes in CUSA, the WAC, and the Big West.

We recap all of the action, and update you on the Hoops HD Selection Committee, which has selected and seeded our field.

 

CLICK HERE for John Stalica’s Report on the Hoops HD Selection Committee

 

 

And for all you radio lovers, there is an mp3 version of the show at the bottom of the page…

 

AMERICAN
Championship
3:15 PM – (5) Connecticut vs (6) Memphis, ESPN

ATLANTIC TEN
Championship
12:30 PM – (2) VCU vs (4) St. Joseph’s, CBS

BIG TEN
Championship
3:00 PM – (2) Michigan State vs (4) Purdue, CBS

SEC
Championship
1:00 PM – (1) Texas A&M vs (2) Kentucky, ESPN

SUN BELT
Championship
1:00 PM – (1) Arkansas-Little Rock vs (2) UL-Monroe, ESPN2

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Championship Week Video Notebook: Selection Sunday, March 13th

Hoops HD Mock Committee Report – Saturday, March 12

Click here for Jon Teitel’s interview with UNC-Wilmington G Craig Ponder and also click here for his interview with Fresno State (and former UNC-Wilmington/Richmond/DePaul head coach) assistant coach Jerry Wainwright

Finally, click here for Jon’s latest forecast of guessing the Selection Committee’s bracket through Saturday’s games.

We at HoopsHD have finished our 3rd day of deliberations – we began the night by doing a further scrubbing of the Under Consideration board. Besides the honorary selections of Chicago State and Grand Canyon, the only teams that remained were VCU, Temple, Syracuse, Monmouth, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, San Diego State (following a loss in the Mountain West championship to Fresno State), St. Mary’s, Vanderbilt, Arkansas-Little Rock (assuming they were to lose to Louisiana-Monroe in the Sun Belt championship), Valparaiso and Hofstra. After the first round of debates, we voted on 3 more at-large teams (since we were guaranteed a bid would open up out of the SEC) – VCU, Temple and South Carolina. The VCU inclusion meant that a spot in the Atlantic 10 was guaranteed to open up; this meant that the only contingency pick needed would be in the American conference since the Sun Belt was not deemed worthy to get 2 bids in the event of a UL-Monroe win/Arkansas-Little Rock loss. Monmouth was voted as the last team into the field and St. Bonaventure was voted as a contingency team in the event that UConn wins the American championship against Memphis.

Our next order of business was to complete the rest of the master seed list; teams seeded 33 through 72 were added to the field since the WAC and Big West championship games were in progress. After New Mexico State and Long Beach State were eliminated, we were left with a master seed list of 70 teams that included the contingency picks of St. Bonaventure and Arkansas-Little Rock/Louisiana Monroe. After the seed list was completed, committee member Joby Fortson (author of the HoopsHD Nitty Gritty Rankings – click here to view his rankings) began to strongly debate the merits (or lack thereof) of South Carolina’s inclusion into the field; a motion was also made to reconsider St. Bonaventure and Syracuse as well. Chad Sherwood (our committee chair) had us rank the teams 1 through 3 after more debate took place on the aforementioned teams. As a result of this vote, Syracuse was added to our First Four, St. Bonaventure remained as our contingency team and South Carolina was voted off the seed list. It took 8 votes for this motion to be allowed to take place.

Our third and final major task of the night was to do our initial scrub of the seed list (see the bracket below):

3-12-16-2016-Selection-Committee-Board

 

The 1-line was adjusted to include North Carolina and Oregon after they both won their conference championships (and respective doubles with the regular season titles). Villanova and Xavier both moved down a seed line, but the biggest winner tonight was Seton Hall. Not only did their wins over Xavier result in both the Wildcats and Musketeers moving down, it vaulted the Pirates into protected seed territory! Also take note that all of the teams that were Under Consideration were moved to the NIT/other postseason board; only the regular season champions highlighted in red are guaranteed inclusion into the NIT. The other teams listed don’t necessarily have to go to the NIT but could be invited to the CBI, CIT or even the new Vegas 16 that debuts this season. The fact that the teams added up to 32 is purely coincidental; it was not the job of our committee to dictate to the NIT who should be selected since they have a separate process of their own.

More scrubbing of the master seed list will take place in the Sunday meeting to account for championships in the Atlantic 10, Sun Belt, SEC, Big 10 and the American. We will do 2 contingency brackets once the first wave of games go final; this will be due largely to whether UConn wins and St. Bonaventure gets into the field OR if Memphis wins the American and steals the bid from the Bonnies. Be on the lookout for those brackets at about 4:30 to 5 PM before the actual bracket is unveiled following the completion of the Big 10 and American championships.

Posted in Bracketology, CBB, Championship Week Video Notebook, Commentary, Hoops HD Report | 1 Comment

Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews Fresno State assistant coach Jerry Wainwright

Fresno State is so good that even their assistant coaches have NCAA tourney and NIT wins on their resume!  Assistant coach Jerry Wainwright made the postseason 7 times in a 10-year stretch as head coach of UNC-Wilmington/Richmond/DePaul, and now he works for Fresno State head coach Rodney Terry.  Earlier today the Bulldogs pulled off 1 of the biggest upsets of the week thanks to a 5-PT win over San Diego State in the Mountain West tourney title game to earn an automatic bid to next week’s NCAA tournament. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Coach Wainwright about recruiting Tim Duncan to Wake Forest and coaching Stephen Curry on team USA. 

wainwright

After being named Colorado District COY in 1975, you returned to your home state as an assistant coach at East Leyden High School in suburban Chicago where your teams went 104-4 over a 4-year span: what made you such a great high school coach, and how was your team able to be so dominant? I worked for a high school HOF coach named Norm Goodman, who was way before his time in terms of player development. We had several high school Americans and a bunch of big kids including Glen Grunwald (who used to work as senior VP of basketball operations for the Knicks). It was a working class neighborhood but our school had a great athletic program. We won several state titles in football and wrestling: 1 of the kids who played QB was Mike Shanahan! Norm was the ultimate mentor: I got to meet every college coach in the country at the 5-star basketball camp prior to the AAU circuit, and we had a bunch of Hall of Famers who played at the camp (Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, etc.). We also had a lot of great coaches: Rick Pitino, John Calipari, etc. I do not think I was anything special: I just had great on-the-job training.

You were an assistant coach to Dave Odom at Wake Forest where you helped recruit Tim Duncan: how did you convince Duncan to attend Wake Forest, and where does he rank among the best players you have ever coached? I was at Xavier for 1 year under Bob Staak and then I moved with him when he took the job at Wake Forest. Every team in the ACC had a great coach back then: Jim Valvano at NC State, Dean Smith at UNC, etc. Bob was let go after a few years but Dave retained me after he took over. The ACC was really at its heyday back then with the original 8 teams. Tim is certainly in a tie for #1 in terms of the best combination of person/player: he was untainted by the American basketball system. He had an incredible work ethic and never had a bad practice.

What are your memories of the 2000 NCAA tourney (you lost to #2-seed Cincinnati who was playing without injured All-American Kenyon Martin)? They might have been the #1 team in the country before Kenyon got hurt. It was the 1st tourney game in our school’s history. We were waiting for our charter flight in Wilmington, NC…but they had accidentally sent the plane to Wilmington, DE! I think we were so excited to be there that we were similar to tourists: we were almost too hyped/prepared and did not play our best game.

What are your memories of the 2002 NCAA tourney in Sacramento (Brett Blizzard had 18 PTS and made 2 FTs with 3 seconds left to clinch a 4-PT OT win over USC for the school’s 1st-ever tourney win, but Jared Jeffries had 20 2nd-half PTS in a 9-PT win by eventual national runner-up Indiana)? I had no idea how much the northern California fans disliked teams from southern California. We were up by 17 PTS with 7 minutes to go against USC but almost let it get away. Brett left his man (Errick Craven) to help at the end of regulation and Craven made a 3-PT shot to tie the game. The air was just sucked out of the arena and we were totally deflated: it was a long walk back to the bench for our guys on the court. I looked each of my players in the eye and told them that we had a 5-minute game ahead of us for the right to make the field of 32. Brett looked like a deer in the headlights but I told him to stop apologizing and just sit down and listen. We played terrific in OT: it probably had more meaning for us because the kids did a great job when the going got tough. We might have had the longest distance to get to our game of any team in the tourney. We went right to the wire against Indiana but had a bad 4-minute stretch where we could not buy a basket.

After the tourney you left UNC-Wilmington to become head coach at Richmond: why did you decide to make the move, and did you have any regrets? I enjoyed Wilmington and lived right outside the downtown area for many years. The definition of a successful coach at my age is a guy who is still coaching! I had a great assistant in Brad Brownell (now the coach at Clemson) and most of the team was coming back so I was able to leave the program in good shape. You have such a short window as a coach: I just thought it was the right time to try coaching in a conference like the A-10. I look at UNC-Wilmington like my family so I knew that they would be okay on their own. If I did not leave at that point I do not think that I ever would have left. It was by far the most difficult decision I have ever made. I have no regrets and no hard feelings because I learned a lot of lessons at Richmond.

What are your memories of the 2004 NCAA tourney (despite having a double-digit lead in the 2nd half and a scoreless Devin Harris in foul trouble you ended up losing to Wisconsin in Milwaukee)? The Badgers were a #5-seed despite winning the Big 10 tourney. Thanks to the pod system we got to play them in Milwaukee, but as both of us have red as a school color I tried to convince my guys that everyone wearing red in the stands was rooting for us! We had a 3-on-1 break when Reggie Brown blew out his knee and the game went downhill from there. It was the classic circumstance where we felt like the gladiators being thrown to the lions. We were 1 of the last teams called during Selection Sunday but that was the year that the A-10 had a whole bunch of teams make it.

In 2005 you returned to your hometown of Chicago to become head coach at DePaul: was it extra-special to go back home, and what was the biggest difference between your previous mid-major jobs and the DePaul job? That was the 1st year that DePaul joined the Big East and we had 3 guys leave early for the draft, which made it tough to succeed. Everyday I was touched to see someone who I had previously coached or went to school with. My best friend from high school had died in Vietnam and his sister re-connected with me after I moved back there. We graduated everyone and did not have any major problems. There are higher expectations and more pressure at that level.

In the summer of 2007 you led the USA Basketball Under-19 team to the title game of the FIBA World Championships in Serbia before a 5-PT loss to the host country and a silver medal for Team USA: how close did you come to winning the gold, and which player impressed you the most (Michael Beasley, Stephen Curry, other)? That was an unbelievable time. Darrell Arthur broke his leg in training camp so we were not a very big team and not expected to do very much, but we had some incredible guards (Curry, Jonny Flynn, etc.). I know that I made USA Basketball squirm a bit but I told our guys that we were going to be sleeping in bad beds in hot hotel rooms in cities where everyone disliked us! I told them that they would learn more about toughness and facing adversity on the road in front of hostile crowds than they ever did while in college. I also told them not to complain because I was going to buy a plane ticket home for the 1st guy who started moaning about anything: to their credit they did not complain at all. The trip cost me thousands of dollars because I had to pay the cook to make us American-style food. There were fans in the crowd who actually spit on us and booed us when we got our medals.

You were fired from DePaul in January of 2010: were you surprised that they made a coaching change midway through the season? I did not like how it ended but I think it was simply because I did not win enough games. I understand the employer-employee relationship: when I 1st got into coaching someone told me that everyone is just an interim coach. I do wish that I had a chance to make it through the end of the season but young players take some time to adjust to the level of play in the Big East. I will always pull for DePaul because it is my hometown school. In my last game against Villanova I broke my leg when Corey Fisher dived for a loose ball.  I ended up on crutches for 11 weeks during the winter in Chicago: that was fun! I was offered jobs in administration and in broadcasting but I have been a coach my whole life.

When people look back on your career, how do you want to be remembered the most? From a professional standpoint I think people would say that I never changed. People think you are wise once you age and your hair turns gray! I enjoyed teaching the game and think that I am recognized as a great practice coach. The game is humbling so I was always interested in getting better. My mantra was “we do not beat ourselves”: we were concerned with doing all the things necessary to put us in a position to win. I have been very blessed and I know almost everyone in the coaching business because I have coached at every level. I am excited about the fact that there are a lot of young coaches out there who want to learn. The business has become so competitive and so cutthroat but it is also a people business because it is your own players who are on the court. You really have to enjoy the moment. I asked Coach K about it back in the day and he told me that he talks to his guys more than he coaches them. My rule was that kids had to come and talk to me in my office every day, which was the best thing I ever did. Back in the day you had to tell everyone to be quiet because they were talking all the time: now you have to tell them to speak up because they all escape into their own world (headphones, cell phones, etc.). A good team player is more interested in the scoreboard than in the scorebook.

Posted in Interviews | 1 Comment

Tourney Talk: HoopsHD interviews SR G Craig Ponder

CLICK HERE for Jon Teitel’s latest Bracketology

 

CLICK HERE For our most recent Championship Week Video Notebook, where we recap one of the craziest days of the season, and look ahead to a very busy Saturday

CLICK HERE for the Hoops HD Selection Committee Report

North Carolina and Duke are the bluest of bloods in the Tar Heel State, but UNC-Wilmington will be joining them in the NCAA tourney next week.  On Monday Craig Ponder scored a team-high 20 PTS to help beat Hofstra in OT in the Colonial tourney title game to earn an automatic bid.  The Seahawks were in the CIT last year, but bounced back this week to claim the school’s 1st NCAA tourney bid in a decade.  Yesterday HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Craig about setting a school record for STL and being unstoppable in OT.

ponder

You played at Hargrave Military Academy: which of your teammates impressed you the most (PJ Hairston, Dez Wells, other)? I have to say Dez: I have never seen anyone compete the way he did. He was a physical specimen who had such a hunger for the game.

Last March in the CIT you scored 17 PTS in a loss to Sam Houston State: what did you learn from that game that you think will help you in the postseason this year? You need to have the will to win. We prepared well last year but did not have the right focus at tipoff and were a little complacent about just making it to postseason play.

In December you set a school record with 9 STL in a win over Coker: what is the secret for being a great defender? You have to really put your mind to work. I cannot take all the credit because Coach Keatts puts us in the right place to win.

You play for Coach Kevin Keatts who was also your coach at Hargrave: what makes him such a good coach, and what is the most important thing that you ever learned from him? He taught me to stay true to myself. I have known him for awhile and he communicates well with everyone on the team and knows how to keep us all motivated.

On Monday you scored a team-high 20 PTS to help clinch a 7-PT OT win over Hofstra to snap their 8-game winning streak: what is the key to winning games in OT (as your team is now 6-0 in OT games during the past 2 years)? We put in a lot of work during the preseason on our conditioning: we are so used to being tired from our practices that we can push through it during long games.

The win was your 25th of the year: when your team lost 20+ games for 3 straight years from 2012-2014, could you have ever imagined tying the school record for most wins in a season? I could never have imagined being at this point. We always dreamed about it but could never string together enough wins.

You are the only senior among the top-7 scorers on your team: how much pressure has there been on you to be a leader this season? We help each other in that aspect so there is not that much pressure on me. I try to lead by example in both working hard and playing hard, as that is all that I can control.

You and UNC Asheville have already earned spots in the NCAA tourney, Duke and UNC are locks to make it, and Davidson is still alive in the A-10 tourney: how do you describe the college basketball scene in North Carolina for people who live outside the Tar Heel State? The atmosphere here is tremendous. Back when we were losing some people had a lot of negative things to say about us, but a lot of people kept faith in us and now that we are winning we have received a lot of support.

Your brother Ansel played football at Western Michigan: who is the best athlete in the family? I would say he is the better athlete by far: he could have even played D-1 basketball.

What kind of seed do you think you deserve, and what kind of seed do you think you will get? I feel we deserve a 12-13 seed but I think they might give us a 13-14 seed.

Posted in Interviews | 1 Comment