HoopsHD began the best month of the year last week with Part 1 of our preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Part 2 of Jon Teitel’s predictions for the remaining 18 tourneys is below: hopefully these will turn out a little better than the 0-for-4 record he has so far with last week’s picks.
1. AAC tourney predicted champ: Tulsa
Last year’s tourney champ: SMU (#1-seed)
This is 1 of the few tourneys that is guaranteed to have a new champ for the 3rd straight year: 2014 title-winner Louisville is now in the ACC and 2015 title-winner SMU is ineligible for postseason play. This year’s location will also shift for the 3rd straight year: from Memphis to Hartford to Orlando. As a fan of Fran (Dunphy) I want to pick Temple, but since they got whipped at Tulsa on 2/23 I will go with the Golden Hurricane. They have been underwhelming on the road (losing 4 of their last 6 outside Oklahoma) but with 7 seniors among their top-8 scorers you know those crafty veterans are not ready for their careers to end. They are among the best in the nation at holding onto the ball but with a 6’4” guard leading them in rebounding they are praying to avoid a team who does most of its work in the post.
2. ACC tourney predicted champ: North Carolina
Last year’s tourney champ: Notre Dame (#3-seed)
This tourney has had a different champ in each of the past 5 years, and North Carolina has been runner-up to 4 of them, so the 5th time is the charm for the Tar Heels even though the tourney shifts to DC after 3 straight years in Greensboro. Coach Roy Williams has not lost a game by more than 6 PTS all season so his team should be able to keep it close against whoever they face. 4 of their top-6 scorers are 6’8” or taller, which is why they are among the best rebounding teams in the nation, and if Brice Johnson is averaging a double-double in only 27 MPG just imagine what he will do if forced to play 37 MPG in March!
3. A-10 tourney predicted champ: St. Bonaventure
Last year’s tourney champ: VCU (#5-seed)
This tourney has had a different champ in each of the past 6 years so I want to pick Dayton to be lucky #7, but they have looked terrible in their last 6 games: 3 losses, 2 OT wins, and a 3rd win by a single point. The top-4 seeds get a double-bye, which leaves VCU/St. Bonaventure/St. Joe’s, and of those 3 the Bonnies are playing the best of anyone having won 10 of their final 11. There are very few teams who feature 3 players each scoring 16+ PPG, but witness the 3-headed beast that is Marcus Posley/Jaylen Adams/Dion Wright. The team from New York might have a lot of fans in attendance for their games in Brooklyn, and if a game goes down to the wire then their 77.7 FT% means they will not lose the game at the line.
4. Big East tourney predicted champ: Villanova
Last year’s tourney champ: Villanova (#1-seed)
The Wildcats won the tourney last year as the #1 seed, and they have done very little over the past 365 days to make anyone think they will not do so again. They have only lost 2 games since Christmas, and could get a chance for revenge if they face Providence in the semis and Xavier in the finals. Villanova has everything you want for success in March: a SR PG in Ryan Arcidiacano, a 6’11” C in Daniel Ochefu, 5 guys scoring in double-figures, and the #1 FT shooting team in the nation. They are not my favorite Wildcats, but this tourney is theirs to lose.
5. Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Idaho
Last year’s tourney champ: Eastern Washington (#2-seed)
History really does not mean anything this year, as this is the 1st Big Sky tourney ever involving all 12 schools and held at a neutral site (Reno). Weber State has been the class of the league, but the only team they failed to beat was Idaho, so I am picking the Vandals to steal this title. If you like games that go down to the wire then this is the team for you: 13 of their past 15 games have been decided by 7 PTS or less. They are also getting hot at the right time, having won 8 of their past 10. None of their top-6 scorers are seniors so this team might be 1 year away from something special, but when you have 250 more REB than your opponents it sounds like you are ready to win right now.
6. Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Michigan State
Last year’s tourney champ: Wisconsin (#1-seed)
Only 4 teams have won this tourney since 2007, which continues to shuttle back and forth between Chicago and Indianapolis before heading to DC next March. This year’s edition is wide-open, with each of the top-9 teams having 19+ regular season wins. Wisconsin has gone from off the bubble to a lock in the matter of 7 weeks, but their 1 loss was by double-digits to the Spartans on 2/18. If the Badgers can repeat as champs after losing Bo Ryan/Sam Dekker/Frank Kaminsky, then kudos to them, but I think Tom Izzo will be hoisting the trophy next weekend. Since losing 3 straight in mid-January, Michigan State has won 10 of 11 with their only loss by a single point at Purdue in OT on 2/9. They are in the top-25 in the nation in both offense and defense, have the best all-around player in the nation in Denzel Valentine, and each of their top-4 shooters from behind the arc are shooting at least 40 3P%.
7. Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas
Last year’s tourney champ: Iowa State (#2-seed)
Every single winner of this tourney has been a top-3 seed, so even though this conference is stacked the eventual victor will probably be 1 of Kansas/Oklahoma/West Virginia. The tourney remains in Kansas City for the 7th straight March, which gives the Jayhawks a home-court advantage away from home. Every basketball fan wants to see Round 3 of Jayhawks-Sooners, but as West Virginia swept Oklahoma during the regular season we might not get what we want. Kansas and the Mountaineers split their 2 meetings so far, but I will give the edge to the Jayhawks due to playing in Kansas City. They have senior leadership in Perry Ellis, a veteran PG in Frank Mason, a quintet of guys who shoot at least 41 3P%, and a coach who is a week away from making his 18th straight NCAA tourney appearance.
8. Big West tourney predicted champ: Hawaii
Last year’s tourney champ: UC Irvine (#3-seed)
The only team that the Rainbow Warriors have to worry about is Long Beach State, who swept them during the regular season. However, since UC Irvine swept the Beach during the regular season, I think the Anteaters can beat them again in the semis. Hawaii and Irvine are the 2 best teams in the conference, but since Hawaii swept them during a 10-day stretch in February I think it will be aloha all the way. They have a pair of 6’11” big men from foreign countries, a bunch of guards from California, and a guy named Sai from the best high school in Arizona: what more could you want!?
9. C-USA tourney predicted champ: UAB
Last year’s tourney champ: UAB (#4-seed)
UAB seemed pretty happy last year with the tourney moving to Birmingham, so if they won it all as a #4 seed I wonder what they can do as a #1 seed. Charlotte is the only other past champ who is still even in the conference after the departures of Memphis/Cincinnati/Louisville/St. Louis/Marquette/Houston over the past few years. The top-4 seeds get a huge advantage with the double bye, and the Blazers swept a pair of games against both Marshall and Middle Tennessee this year, so the main obstacle in their path is Louisiana Tech and star G Alex Hamilton who has played out of his mind during the past 3 games (96 PTS/20 REB/22 AST/10 STL/32-48 FG/26-30 FT).
10. Ivy tourney predicted champ: no conference tourney (Yale)
Last year’s champ: Harvard
Thanks for nothing Princeton!
11. MAC tourney predicted champ: Akron
Last year’s tourney champ: Buffalo (#2-seed)
The state of Ohio had owned this tourney for a decade (not a surprise as the location has been various cities within the state since 1993) until Western Michigan and Buffalo expanded the geography over the past 2 years. The top-2 seeds had previously received double-byes but this year we go back to single-byes for each of the top-4 seeds. Akron has had 1 rollercoaster of a season: the Zips started 3-2, then won 17 of their next 19, then lost their final 3 road games to finish 24-7. They swept a pair of games against both Buffalo and Ohio and did not lose a home game all season, so even if LeBron cannot win a title this spring and least someone else from Akron will.
12. MEAC tourney predicted champ: Norfolk State
Last year’s tourney champ: Hampton (#6-seed)
This tourney has featured 7 different winners over the past 9 years, so even though Hampton is the defending champ and the #1 seed they are far from a slam dunk. Not only can the Spartans use a little home cooking, they are battle-tested due to a brutal non-conference schedule that included South Carolina, Cincinnati, and Alabama. They have a trio of seniors guards scoring 12+ PPG who do not turn the ball over that much, and with 1 of the best FT shooting teams in the country they can win a close game at the line.
13. MWC tourney predicted champ: San Diego State
Last year’s tourney champ: Wyoming (#4-seed)
The Aztecs won back-to-back titles in 2010/2011 and have been runner-up in 3 of the 4 years since then. Fresno State has won 10 of 12 since an OT loss in San Diego on 1/19 but the Aztecs have been even better: since a home loss to Kansas a few days before Christmas they have won 16 of 18 with the 2 losses coming by a combined 4 PTS. Coach Steve Fisher has 1 of the best defenses in the country, and with only 1 senior among his top-6 scorers this team has not taken as big of a dive as a I thought they would.
14. Pac-12 predicted champ: Arizona
Last year’s tourney champ: Arizona (#1-seed)
This tourney has featured a different winner in each of the past 5 years so I was thinking of picking Utah to make it 6-for-6, but Oregon swept them during the regular season. I was all set to pick Cal when they were leading Arizona by 8 in Tucson last Thursday night with under 2 minutes to go…but then Gabe York made a pair of threes to help the Wildcats pull off the miraculous comeback…and then he made 9 more from behind the arc in only 30 minutes against Stanford on Saturday, so bye bye Bears. My head says that the Ducks should be the pick, especially after snapping the Cats’ home-court winning streak on 1/28, but my heart says to go with the alma mater.
15. SEC predicted champ: Texas A&M
Last year’s tourney champ: Kentucky (#1-seed)
For all of Kentucky’s dominance over the past several years, the “Wildcat Invitational” has featured a different winner during each of the past 4 years. The top-4 seeds each get a double-bye, but that might actually hurt a team like LSU who could use a couple of more wins rather than a couple of more days of rest. Kentucky is 17-0 at Rupp Arena this year but only 6-8 outside the Bluegrass State, so beating a trio of 20-win teams on 3 straight nights in Nashville is asking a lot. LSU has some injuries and South Carolina has not won 3 straight games since early January so I will go chalk and pick the Aggies. They lost 5 of 6 in the middle of their conference schedule but have recovered to win each of their final 6 games. 3 of their top-7 scorers are freshmen so a little extra rest this week could pay big dividends.
16. Southland predicted champ: Stephen F. Austin
Last year’s tourney champ: Stephen F. Austin (#1-seed)
For all of the (well-deserved) recognition Bill Self has received for winning 12 straight Big 12 titles, can I get a little love for Brad Underwood?! All the guy has done in 3 years at SFA is win 86 of 99 games, post a conference record of 53-1, and if all goes well he will end up making his 3rd straight trip to the NCAA tourney. Texas A&M-CC will also get a double-bye as the #2 seed, but unless they can convince the league to give them a quadruple-bye I do not think they are cutting down the Lumberjacks. Nobody wants to travel to Nacogdoches so most of their quality non-conference games, yet they only had 1 non-conference loss this year by more than 10 PTS. They do not have much size but each of their top-3 scorers are seniors and the team is among the best in the country at both AST/STL.
17. SWAC predicted champ: Texas Southern
Last year’s tourney champ: Texas Southern (#1-seed)
If it was a 1-game playoff I might choose Southern to pull off the upset, but I cannot pick a team that lost 4 of its final 5 to finish the regular season. The Tigers have won each of the past 2 tourneys, their only 2 losses since New Year’s Eve were by a combined 9 PTS, and #2 seed Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA tourney. Coach Mike Davis does not have a single player standing taller than 6’8”, but what he does have is 4 seniors among his top-5 scorers and a freshman in Derrick Griffin who is averaging a double-double and will have plenty of family/friends in attendance for the tourney in his hometown of Houston.
18. Sun Belt predicted champ: Arkansas-Little Rock
Last year’s tourney champ: Georgia State (#1-seed)
This tourney has featured 5 different winners during the past 6 years but remains in New Orleans for the 2nd straight year after 5-year run in Hot Springs. You can almost guarantee that this tourney will go all the way down to the wire as each of the last 6 titles games have been decided by 1-4 PTS (including last year’s ugly 38-36 win by Georgia State). UT-Arlington was looking like the favorite in mid-January with a 13-2 record and road wins over Ohio State and Memphis, but after losing 5 of their next 6 they fell right off the bubble. The Trojans had a similar resume (15-2 with road wins over San Diego State and Tulsa), but kept their foot on the pedal to finish 27-4 and tie 4 other teams for the fewest losses in the nation. They are far from an NCAA lock, but even if they were to get upset by Arlington or Louisiana-Monroe in the final after enjoying their double-bye their body of work would be mighty appealing to the selection committee. If you can find a better 1st-year coach than Chris Beard, I would love to meet him: Fear the Beard!
19. WAC predicted champ: New Mexico State
Last year’s tourney champ: New Mexico State (#1-seed)
Of course I would pick the Lopes if they were allowed to participate, but since they cannot that means the Aggies will not have to face the only team they lost to in conference play. Coach Marvin Menzies is the 4-time defending champ, and with 9 players on the roster who are 6’7” or taller providing a 310 REB advantage during the year they will never get beat up on the boards. Pascal Siakam was conference ROY last year, he should be conference POY/DPOY this year, and if he stays in school for 4 years then he will become 1 of the best players in conference history.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, March 5th
NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS
CLICK HERE for our most recent Championship Week Video Notebook, where we recap all of yesterday’s conference tournament action, as well as look ahead to today’s
CLICK HERE for Chad Sherwood’s Four Part Under the Radar Games of the Day
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VANDERBILT AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). This season, Vandy has gone from being in everyone’s top 20, to falling so far out of the picture that pretty much everyone stopped looking at them, to playing their way back onto the bubble. If they win this game today, chances are they’ll be relatively safely inside the bubble with the chance to improve their profile even more in the SEC Tournament.
-NC STATE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). Notre Dame has been blown through the roof in their last two games. It would be in their best interest to not let that happen a third time, especially against a non tournament team at home.
-OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Michigan State isn’t quite up on our #1 line, but they could very easily end up there, and on the #1 line of the actual selection committee. Ohio State can still make the field, but they’ll need to win this game and beat other highly ranked team sin the Big Ten Tournament in order to do it.
-SETON HALL AT DEPAUL (Big East). Seton Hall is coming off a loss to Butler, but they’ve still won 9 of their last 11 and appear to be safely in the field. Having said that, they wouldn’t want a loss to a rather weak DePaul team on what is an otherwise very good profile.
-GEORETOWN AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova will most likely end up on the #1 line so long as they hold serve in this game, and avoid a loss to a non-tournament caliber team in the Big East Tournament.
-PROVIDENCE AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). One never knows what Providence is going to do. They need to avoid this damaging loss, and if they do they should be locked in. Chances are they make it whether or not they win or lose, but they went through a stretch where they had lost six of eight prior to winning their last two, which they barely won.
-OKLAHOMA AT TCU (Big Twelve). Oklahoma will most likely end up on the #1 line barring any losses to non-tournament teams the rest of the way. I don’t see them being any lower than the #2 line no matter what happens.
-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is obviously very safely in the field and has a strong chances of playing their way up to a protected seed if they can win the SEC Tournament, and may get up there even if they don’t. LSU has been a little disappointing this season. Yeah, that’s the nice way of putting it.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Two ranked Big Twelve teams. What else is new? West Virginia should end up very high on the seed list, and could go as high as a #2. Baylor is easily in on the initial ballot, and if they can pick up a win in this game, and one or two more in the Big Twelve Tournament then they could end up as a protected seed.
-PITTSBURGH AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Pitt could really use a win away from home. I mean, they could REALLY use it. It would take a Herculean effort, but I suppose it’s still POSSIBLE for Georgia Tech to play their way in. It would involve beating the likes of Duke, UNC, and a few others in the ACC Tournament, though.
-MARQUETTE AT BUTLER (Big East). I like how this Butler team has been playing, and think they can pretty much lock themselves into the initial ballot if they win this game. Winning this doesn’t help so much as losing at home to a non-tournament team would hurt.
-CREIGHTON AT XAVIER (Big East). Xavier still has an outside shot at a #1 seed, but they’d pretty much need to win out through the Big East Tournament. Creighton beat them earlier in the year, but that was obviously at Creighton.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT DAVIDSON (Atlantic Ten). GW is squarely on the bubble, and a win in this game keeps them there. A loss in this game actually knocks them further outside of it. Now wait for the obvious!!….GW needs to win this game.
-AIR FORCE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West, Front Range). We highlight this game only because it is a Front Range game, and we at Hoops HD love the Front Range! As we love all mythical conferences.
-ALABAMA AT GEORGIA (SEC). Alabama is probably too far outside the bubble to play their way back into it without winning the SEC Tournament, but if they pick up this road win and knock off some big teams in the tournament I suppose it’s still possible.
-IOWA STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Two ranked Big Twelve teams. What else is new? Kansas can pretty much lock up a #1 seed, and perhaps even the top #1 seed regardless of what happens in the Big Twelve Tournament, with a win today. Iowa State still has a good shot at ending up as a protected seed, and if they can do the impossible and pull off this win it pretty much guarantees it for them.
-MIAMI FL AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Miami has a very strong resume and is coming off what is perhaps their most impressive road performance of the year. They can clinch at least a share of the ACC regular season title with a win in this game, and can win it out right if UNC falls at Duke.
-DUQUESNE AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s should get into the field safely so long as they hold serve, and that means not losing home games to non-tournament teams.
-STANFORD AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). Stanford is outside the bubble, and to me doesn’t look that good. But, some of us at Hoops HD still like them (I don’t know why, but they do). Stanford’s paper is strong enough to where if they win this game, and beat a couple of tournament teams in the Pac Twelve Tournament, you could make a case for them. The problem is that I don’t think they’re good enough to do that.
-OREGON AT USC (Pac Twelve). Oregon looks to be a protected seed regardless of what happens from here on out, and although I don’t think the real committee would do this, many here at Hoops HD are saying they could end up on our #1 line. USC has had a great season and should make the field as well.
-GRAND CANYON AT UTAH VALLEY (WAC). Grand Canyon, the Team of the People, closes out the regular season today as they go after what would be an amazing 25th win. That is remarkable considering that they are just a transitional program.
-SOUTH CAROLINA AT ARKANSAS (SEC). South Carolina appears to be safely in, but their resume could use some updating. Arkansas isn’t a tournament team, but this would still be a very nice road win for the Gamecocks, especially when you consider that they’re coming off of a loss.
-SOUTH FLORIDA AT TULSA (American). Tulsa is on the bubble and still has work to do. Bubble teams cannot afford to lose home games to teams as weak as South Florida.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT DUKE (ACC). On the court, North Carolina is perhaps the most talented team in the country. On paper, they’re still missing a solid road win. They did win at Kansas, but that is their only notable road win against a team that’s solidly in the field. Winning at Duke completely changes the complexion of their profile in a very good way. Duke has been somewhat disappointing on the road this year (minus their win at UNC), but they’ve been solid at home. This is a rivalry game with something on the line for both teams. And, a a couple of interesting facts about these two rivals. The two schools are just eight miles apart!! And, they have NEVER met in the NCAA Tournament!!!
-OREGON STATE AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). Whenever Oregon State has to play a game that requires them to pack a suitcase, they generally lose. Their only road wins are Washington State, Rice, and UC Stanta Barbara. I’m not entirely sure that Wazzu and Rice should even count. If they can get just one more true road win, it would improve their profile, even if it came against an NIT caliber team, which UCLA most certainly is. As they were last year, but that’s another story.
-HAWAII AT LONG BEACH STATE (Big West). Hawaii is an outside shot at best to make the field without the automatic bid, and calling it an outside shot may be overstating it. But, still, they have just four losses and they would be the outright first place finisher.
-PRINCETON AT DARTMOUTH (Ivy). Princeton is neck and neck with Yale for the automatic bid, so every game has a tournament stakes feel to it. Speaking of Yale….
-YALE AT COLUMBIA (Ivy). Yale is neck and neck with Princeton for the automatic bid, so every game has a tournament stakes feel to it.
-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). When you’re squarely on the bubble like Saint Bonaventure, you can’t afford to lose to very bad teams like the Jim Crews coached Saint Louis Billikens.
-IOWA AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). Iowa has lost four straight and needs a win just to be in a position to play their way back up to a protected seed. Michigan is squarely on the bubble, and the other night some of our staff was arguing that they did not belong in at all. They need a win just to demonstrate that they belong inside the bubble.
-VCU AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). First place in the A10 is on the line!! VCU is inside the bubble, but hardly entirely safely inside of it, and a road win like this could really help them out. That is on the line!! Dayton is most likely an initial ballot team, but a win today could really help their resume and in turn help their overall seed. That is on the line!! There is a whole lot on the line today!! It’s about as high stakes a game as any single regular season game could be.
-CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). After leading for most of the game and playing really well against Arizona the other night, Cal was not able to hold on. Arizona State is nowhere close to being a tournament team, but adding one last true road win to their profile regardless of who it is against should help Cal out.
-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). This is Louisville’s curtain call as they will not play in the ACC or NCAA Tournaments due to a self imposed ban, which is not fair to the two seniors that are on the team. They get the chance to take down a Virginia team that still has a chance at finishing in a tie for first in the conference, and depending on how things fall the rest of the way, ending up on the #1 line.
-COLORADO AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). I like Utah’s chances of ending up as a protected seed, and if they hold serve the rest of the way they should be fine. Colorado is relatively safe as well, but they could get a whole lot safer and improve their resume a whole lot more if they’re able to close things out with a big road win like this.
-UNLV AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State is squarely on the bubble, and I think the fact that they are an outright first place finisher will help them a ton. Having said that, losing this last game would do the opposite of help them. They need to win the automatic bid to be completely safe, but they’ll get a strong look if they don’t win it.
-PORTLAND AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Gonzaga is still outside our bubble, but they should still get consideration for a bid if they end up not winning the WCC Tournament. It may not be much consideration, but it will at least be some.