LINKS
-The bracket below makes no attempts to guess the actual committee. It is simply what David thinks the field should look like if the season ended today. To see Jon Teitel’s bracket and seed list, which does guess the committee – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, as well as the other Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE
NOTES FROM DAVID
-This is the last staff bracket that we will post before conference tournaments begin. The reason I am posting the last bracket is because I am right more than anyone else on the staff. You’ll see comments below from some of the rest of the staff below, and anyone who makes comments disagree with what I’ve done is wrong!
-The First Four games actually needed to be flipped. I had Cincinnati and Michigan ahead of Oregon State and Alabama, but if you look at the bracket you’ll notice something very unusual. All of the 6 v 11 games are on Thursday/Saturday, and all but one of the 5 v 12 games are on Thursday/Saturday. Oregon State cannot play Arizona, so Cincinnati v Michigan had to go to the one and only Friday/Sunday location.
-I like Texas a lot, and I don’t understand why they’re not getting more love. I can only assume it’s because of their record, but the majority of their losses have been road losses to protected seeds, and they have some really big wins as well. I think they’ll end up as a protected seed by the time it’s all over.
-California has made the biggest jump up my seed list over the last few weeks. The reason for that is simple. They went from being a team that had good wins at home, but hardly any wins at all on the road to being a team that had good wins at home and some notable road wins to go along with it.
-Seton Hall is another team that should be valued more than they are. They just knocked off Xavier, and they’re 8-1 in their last nine games.
-The bubble is always weak. I think we say every year that it is weaker than it was the previous year. This year is no exception. The bubble teams from the power conferences that will end up playing their way in will most likely boost their resumes as they go through the rest of the season and conference tournaments. But, having said that, the exclusion of Louisville and SMU means that two teams will get in that otherwise wouldn’t have, so the bubble will be slightly weaker just for that reason alone.
-I also did something that I know Chad hates. The projected conference champions are all current first placed teams.
TEAMS THAT WERE NEXT IN LINE: Saint Bonaventure, George Washington, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Tulsa, BYU, Florida
STAFF COMMENTS
CHAD
-I agree with David on the top 8 teams, and that despite their loss this week Oklahoma belongs as a 1 seed. I would not, however, have Virginia as a 1 seed. I know this may sound crazy to some given that they are two games out of first place in their conference, but I really like Michigan State’s overall profile better than anyone other that Kansas, Oklahoma and Villanova. The Spartans would be on my 1 line right now, but it is admittedly a close call with almost all the 2 seeds in contention for that spot.
-I hate agreeing with David, but he is right about Texas and has them exactly where I think they belong.
-All season long I have had Cal way higher ranked than David. I am shocked that he has them on the 5 line suddenly (I would argue they are a 6 at best and maybe still a 7). The Golden Bears still don’t have a win away from home against a team that is in this field.
-VCU not only in but on the 10 line and inside the First Four makes no sense at all. Yes, they won at G.W., but the Colonials are not an NCAA Tournament team. The Rams simply have nothing tournament worthy on their profile and are not outright in first place in their conference. Even if you have them in as an auto-bid winner, they don’t belong above the 12 line.
-Oregon State in the First Four. I think David and I disagree “slightly” here as I would have them wearing white in the Round of 64. Three top 20 wins, wins away from home against teams that are in the field or on the bubble (Tulsa and Stanford), 9 Top 100 wins and no bad losses. There is noone anywhere close to the Bubble with a resume that solid.
-I would have had Michigan out and St. Bonaventure in, but that is a very close call and I fully understand going the other way there. The other team I would have had in that David left out was Stanford. I am amazed that David did not even consider them! The Cardinal have a lot of losses, but they have three Top 20 wins, two more in the Top 50 one of which was on the road, and only one loss outside of the Top 50. In fact, 10 of their 12 losses were to teams in this field above them, and a 11th was to an SMU team that would also outrank them if they were eligible. Five wins over teams that are above you in the field and only one loss to a team below you gets you a serious look in my book.
JOHN
-Michigan State and Virginia makes for a fascinating debate – the way things stand right now, I’d personally have Sparty #4 overall and Virginia #5 overall. I just think the Hoos have too many iffy losses (within their conference) for a #1 seed. (I’m also waiting for the punchline from Griggs that losing to Tim Miles doesn’t hurt whatsoever)
-I would also argue that Miami deserves better than a 4 seed; I’d even argue that they could be the last 2-seed with 8 wins (could be 9 if Princeton wins the Ivy) against the NCAA Tournament field and 4 wins against teams that could be protected seeds. The Hurricanes are also a co-leader in the ACC thanks to wins against Virginia and Louisville last week; I think they’re being judged a little harshly after one bad outing at North Carolina.
-I’m also surprised that Arizona isn’t dropping further down the seed list; their only wins against teams that may end up making the field are USC and Oregon State, both of which took place in Tuscon. They have a lot of wins against teams that appear to be in the 51-100 RPI range. Contrast that to a team like California who’s blasting teams left and right in Berkeley regardless of quality. If Arizona can’t beat California or even Stanford at home this week, I’ll be submitting a first ballot that won’t include the Wildcats.
-After getting to see a few NCAA Tournament teams up close and personal yesterday, I’d submit that Seton Hall belongs at least a seed line higher and Monmouth a seed line lower. If Monmouth isn’t hitting their shots, they don’t have the confidence in their inside game that they’ll need to spring an upset in the NCAA Tournament. They’re certainly resilient – Niagara hit an ungodly 28 out of 29 free throws before missing a crucial pair in the final minute yesterday.
-Butler has a lot of work to do to end up as a 9 seed, but they get another shot at home against Seton Hall (and later Marquette) to bolster their profile. Matchups seem to dictate Butler’s level of play; if they face a team like Seton Hall in the Big East tournament, they should be able to get a win. If they match up against a team like Xavier, they’re in trouble.
-I don’t have any problem with the teams that David left out of the field, either. Gonzaga does have a share of the WCC title, but if they finally beat St. Mary’s, they’ll wind up with the auto bid. Lose a 3rd time and they’ll be NIT bound; beating BYU twice won’t be enough this year under such a scenario.
News, Notes, Links, Conference Tournaments, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, March 1st
Happy March Madness Everybody!!!
You can stop searching the internet!! You don’t need to go anywhere else!! HOOPS HD HAS MARCH COVERED!!! We are now in full blown March Mode! We will be recording our Championship Week Video Notebooks every night, and keeping you updated with all of the action each day with our articles.
LINKS
-For the Final Hoops HD Report of the season, where the staff runs through the nine multi-bid leagues and discusses the other teams that are inside the bubble – CLICK HERE
-For Jon Teitel’s Conference Tournament Previews (Part 1) – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, featuring the Team of the People against Saint Mary’s #LopesWaiver – CLICK HERE
-For the Hoops HD NCAA Tournament Survival Board, which is the most valued and reliable resource that is available to the Selection Committee – CLICK HERE
-For all the Conference Tournament Info you need, including dates, times, networks, and matchups – CLICK HERE
-For our latest Bracket Projections – CLICK HERE
NEWS AND NOTES
-Even in Texas, the things that Kansas did last night to the Longhorns should be considered abusive and illegal. Kansas had strong seasons the past two years where they appeared to taper off a little down the stretch. This season, Kansas does not appear to be tapering off.
-The chalk pretty much held last night. Chattanooga avoided what would have been a complete death blow to their at-large chances when they came back to beat VMI. The problem is that they may already be on the outside looking in and will need to win the automatic bid.
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK
ATLANTIC SUN QUARTERFINALS
-#8 South Carolina Upstate @ #1 North Florida (7:30 PM, ESPN3)
-#5 Kennesaw State @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (7:05 PM, ESPN3)
-#7 Stetson (ineligible for NCAA Tournament) @ #2 NJIT (7:30 PM, ESPN3)
-#6 Lipscomb @ #3 Jacksonville (7:00 PM, ESPN3)
PATRIOT LEAGUE OPENING ROUND
-#9 Holy Cross @ #8 Loyola MD (7:30 PM, patriotleague.tv) – winner gets Bucknell
-#10 Lafayette @ #7 Navy (7:00 PM, patriotleague.tv) – winner gets Lehigh
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-KENTUCKY AT FLORIDA (SEC). Kentucky has been very inconsistent on the road. They need a strong finish to the season, which includes picking up more wins away from home, if they want to end up as a protected seed.
-TENNESSEE AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Vandy has been playing really well all of a sudden. They’re suddenly on the bubble, and should make the field if they keep going like they have been. They need to hold serve in home games against non-tournament teams, which means taking care of business against their rivals.
-VIRGINIA AT CLEMSON (ACC). Virginia is on the cusp of a #1 seed. Their only losses have been close road losses against likely protected seeds. If they really are a #1 seed then this is the kind of road game that you would expect them to win.
-DEPAUL AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova is atop the Big East, and should be able to end up as a #1 seed so long as they hold serve the rest of the way.
-DAYTON AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). Dayton has lost three out of their last four, and their profile has slipped somewhat. The sooner they get the ship righted, the better. They don’t want to add another loss to a non-tournament team to their profile.
-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). I still think Oklahoma can end up on the #1 line, but they probably need to win out the regular season. Baylor is a solid tournament team that should get in on the initial ballot, but this is a very tall order. Oklahoma win the first meeting rather handily.
-WAKE FOREST AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is coming off a loss at Pitt where they looked really sluggish. Fortunately for them they have a very winnable game tonight against Wake, which should help get them back on the right track.
-PURDUE AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Purdue has a solid profile and should end up below the protected seeds, but in on the initial ballot. Nebraska isn’t the easiest place to win on the road, but it’s the kind of road game that a solid NCAA Tournament team should be able to win.
-GEORGIA TECH AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Georgia Tech is outside the bubble, but they’ve been playing well these past couple of weeks and are a few big wins away from landing in the field. Now, having said that, the question is whether or not they’re good enough to pick up the few big wins that they need.
-GEORGE MASON AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). GW is just outside our bubble, and a home loss to a weak team could serve as a bit of a death blow to their at-large chances.
-ARKANSAS STATE AT LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt). Little Rock should land inside the bubble so long as they win out and avoid an early loss in the SBC Tournament. They’ve had a good year and I’d hate to see them stub their toes and suffer a bad loss this close to the end. This game also has Survival Board implications as an Arkansas State win would eliminate conference-mate Appalachian State from being able to make the Sun Belt Tournament.
-TEXAS A&M AT AUBURN (SEC). This is a winnable road game for a TAMU team that appears to be below the protected seeds, but still in on the initial ballot.
-INDIANA AT IOWA (Big Ten). The schedule isn’t balanced, but Indiana has clinched a least of share of first place in the Big Ten. This would probably be their most impressive win of the year if they pull this one out on the road. Iowa is still a protected seed, but they’ve been tapering off in recent weeks.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). I can’t say for certain whether or not San Diego State will land inside the bubble, but if they win out and avoid an early loss in the MWC Tourney they should get a serious look.