-For our latest Under the Radar Video Podcast, featuring a live phone call to the NCAA regarding the #LopesWaiver movement, CLICK HERE.
-For Chad’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between North Florida and Jacksonville, CLICK HERE.
NEWS AND NOTES
-Xavier knocked off Villanova yesterday in a battle of top five teams. The loss will do very little, if anything, to hurt Villanova. They can still end up on the #1 line, and they likely will if they hold on to finish first in the Big East. The two could also meet again in the Big East Tournament in just a few weeks. It’s a huge win for Xavier even though they were the home team because Nova has been so strong on the road this year. It’s possible that we’ll see both of them up on the #1 line.
-Wisconsin picked up another huge road win at Iowa. It’s the second team that’s likely a protected seed that the Badgers have managed to beat on the road. Their profile is looking really good this year, and if they keep going like they’re going they could end up with a very healthy seed.
-Colorado got a big win over Arizona that they desperately needed. This should help stabilize them after it appeared they were going in the wrong direction. As for Arizona, it would have been a nice road win, but the loss isn’t much of a setback. I still like their chances of ending up as a protected seed.
-VCU fell to George Mason. VCU was very close to the bubble, and this will likely knock them outside of it. They now have two bad losses on their resume, and although they have a lot of decent wins, they don’t have any really good ones. They haven’t really beaten anyone that’s solidly in the field, so they’ll really need a strong finish if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday.
-Oregon State’s NCAA Tournament hopes are still flickering after they hit a dramatic three point shot at the buzzer to knock off Washington. Washington, like Oregon State, is right on the bubble and could have really used a notable road win like this. If Washington does end up missing the field then this is the kind of game that could have made a difference.
-We will be recording another Bracket Rundown show tonight, so keep an eye on the website this evening and tomorrow morning.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-FLORIDA STATE AT DUKE (ACC). Florida State is in a complete free-fall, and even though we’d normally say losing at Duke isn’t damaging, this is the kind of win that it will take to get FSU out of that free-fall. Duke is looking more and more like a protected seed despite coming off a loss at Louisville.
-INDIANA AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). This is another winnable conference road game for the Hoosiers, and the more of those they have, the better their profile will look.
-PROVIDENCE AT SETON HALL (Big East). Providence is safely in the field, but they’re not looking like a protected seed the way they were about a month ago, and they’re all over the place in terms of how good their wins are and how questionable their losses are. Most have Seton Hall on the bubble, but I personally like them more than that. They’re 9-5 in Big East play and have a chance to improve on that tonight, plus they’ve won five of their last six games.
-CONNECTICUT AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). The rivalry continues!!!! There are games that are good to win and there are games that are horrible to lose. For UConn, this is the later.
-UT ARLINGTON AT LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt). Little Rock will get a serious look for an at-large bid if they win out, but even that may not be good enough, and if they drop a game before the conference tournament, and go on to lose an additional game in the conference tournament, it may be too much to overcome. They’ve had a great year and I’d hate to see them blow it at the end.
-UCLA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Cal’s profile has drastically improved since they picked up a few road wins and they should be okay for a bid so long as they hold serve and win the games they’re supposed to win, which includes this one.
-ARIZONA STATE AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Utah is playing extremely well lately. The way they’re going they could end up as a protected seed. To do that, they’ll need to win the big games, but also hold serve in games like this.
-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). Gonzaga is on the fringe of the bubble and needs to win out just to be able to get a serious look from the committee. A loss in a game like this could absolutely crush their chances.
-SANTA CLARA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Saint Mary’s is also right on the fringe of the bubble, and probably also needs to win out in order to get a serious look from the committee.
-USC AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). USC has a solid profile, but one of the areas where it is kind of weak is in road wins. This is a winnable road game that will help them out even though Stanford isn’t a tournament team.
-UC RIVERSIDE AT HAWAII (Big West). I really like this Hawaii team, and I think they should get a serious look from both the Hoops HD Committee and the real selection committee for consideration if they fail to win the Big West Tournament. However, they need to win out first.
SURVIVAL BOARD GAMES
-AUSTIN PEAY AT SIU-EDWARDSVILLE (Ohio Valley). Austin Peay comes in the game seeded 9th in the Ohio Valley; they need a win tonight and some help from Jacksonville State tonight to move up to the 8th seed for the upcoming OVC Tournament. A loss by Peay and a win by Eastern Kentucky would eliminate the Governors tonight.
-EASTERN KENTUCKY AT JACKSONVILLE STATE (Ohio Valley). EKU currently is in 8th place in the OVC; an EKU win would also eliminate Jax State tonight.
-LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE AT TROY (Sun Belt). A loss by the Trojans puts them on the brink of elimination from any postseason hopes in the Sun Belt.
-IPFW AT WESTERN ILLINOIS (Summit). A win for Fort Wayne clinches a share of the Summit League title; a loss (or a South Dakota win against IUPUI tonight) eliminates the Leathernecks from advancing into the Summit League tournament.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Feb 24th
Below is a rundown of last night’s action, and a look at the games tonight that could impact the NCAA Tournament.
NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-For Jon Teitel’s photo-blogging of his visit to see the Team of the People take on UMKC –CLICK HERE #LopesWaiver
-Kansas got another big road win against Baylor last night in a hard fought game. That is not an easy game to win, especially with how well Baylor had played against Texas and with all of the momentum they had going into that game, but it is the kind of game that a #1 seed is expected to win, which Kansas did, hence the reason they are a solid #1 seed.
-Ohio State’s profile does not look like an NCAA Tournament profile, and last night their team did not look like an NCAA Tournament team. Michigan State completely took them apart. There is no real harm in losing to Michigan State, but Ohio State was at home and it was a game they needed to make a statement to the committee, and they just got blasted.
-Speaking of getting blasted, LSU was destroyed by an Arkansas team who, while good at home, probably won’t even make the NIT. I think the Tigers are done unless they can win out and win some big games in the SEC Tournament.
-Florida lost at home to Vanderbilt, which is not what Florida needed. The final score was 87-74, but Vandy really didn’t open it up until the final minutes. I still think Vandy has a lot of work to do to get inside the bubble, but it was a nice win for them.
-Temple played a good first half at Tulsa last night in a game between two bubble teams that the Owls really needed to win. Unfortunately, I guess they were so satisfied with what they had done in the first half that they just decided to call it a day and not come out for the second half. Tulsa rolled 74-55 to pick up a win that they really needed.
-Remember when we thought Clemson was making a strong case that they were a tournament team?? You don’t?? Good, me neither. Never happened.
-Dayton is not doing well without Kendall Pollard. They had lost two straight games going into last night, and although they did pull out the win at Saint Louis, in overtime, it was one of the least spectacular victories I have ever seen. Every now and then you’ll hear the term “good loss” when talking about a team’s profile, which basically means it came to a highly ranked team in a tough game where, despite losing, they still demonstrated that they were a good team. If there is any such thing as a “bad win” last night’s Dayton win at Saint Louis was it. The execution and shot selection on the part of both teams in the final minute of the game was indescribably bad.
-Texas Tech had to sweat out a really weak TCU team at home last night. Two weeks ago that would not have come as a surprise, but based on how well they’d been playing lately I’m surprised they struggled in that game. Still, overall, the team has looked really good.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VILLANOVA AT XAVIER (Big East). This is obviously the featured game of the evening as it’s two top five seeds battling it out for a #1 seed. If Nova wins, then they have a clear path to it as they’ll have a comfortable lead in the conference race, and they will have beaten a protected seed in a true road game. If Xavier wins it they’ll be squarely in the hunt for it as well. When we see games like this in the regular season between two highly ranked teams, they are more showcases than they are stakes games. A loss certainly doesn’t knock either team out of the tournament, and in this case it may not even knock them off the #1 line. Both will enter the NCAA Tournament with very good seeds and their potential for doing well will be the same regardless of what happens in this game. But, don’t try and tell that to the players, coaches, and fans. To them, this feels like an NCAA Tournament game. And, since Nova wants the #1 seed in the East, and Xavier wants to avoid getting sent out to the West, it could come in to play in terms of deciding who gets to go where.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). TAMU will be safely in on the initial ballot so long as they hold serve and win the games that they’re supposed to win.
-NORTHWESTERN AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). Michigan is right on the bubble, and any loss to a non tournament team, especially at home, will be a severe blow to their chances. This win won’t help them, but a loss would really hurt them.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). GW is right on the bubble and they need this win on the road to help their profile. Like any bubble team, every game feels like a pivotal game.
-DUQUESNE AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). Ditto about every game feeling like a pivotal game. Saint Bonaventure is right on our bubble, and they need to avoid home losses to non tournament teams.
-VCU AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten). VCU is the current conference leader, but their overall profile isn’t the best and they could still end up on the wrong side of the bubble if they slip up in games like this. Losing at George Mason is at-large poison.
-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT UMASS (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s is a little further inside our bubble, but they’re a long way from being a lock. In fact losing to a team like UMass is a good way to being un-locked.
-LOUISVILLE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Pitt got a much needed road win at Syracuse in their last game to help resuscitate a profile that was getting worse and worse. A win today over a tournament caliber Louisville team will help out as well.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT NC STATE (ACC). North Carolina is one of about ten teams that could still end up on the #1 line, but they haven’t been nearly as good on the road as they need to be by #1 seed standards. This won’t be a great road win by any means, but it’s a rivalry game that they can’t really afford to lose if they want to end up as a #1.
-TENNESSEE AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). South Carolina picked up a nice win against Florida in their last game, and should be safely in the field so long as they hold serve and win the games they’re supposed to, which includes this one.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). BEDLAM!!!!!! Well, this edition of Bedlam isn’t nearly as much fun as it normally is considering that it’s a huge mismatch. Oklahoma won the first game, which was actually fairly competitive, but they should absolutely blast them at home tonight, especially coming off their big road win over the weekend.
-NOTRE DAME AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). People are starting to talk about Notre Dame as being a protected seed, and they could end up there if they finish strong and avoid bad losses in games like this.
-WISCONSIN AT IOWA (Big Ten). I’m starting to like Wiscy’s profile more and more, and I expect that they will land inside the bubble. If they can pull off a road win like this one over an Iowa team that may not look like a #1 seed any longer, but still looks like a protected seed, then it would pretty much cement it.
-ARIZONA AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). Arizona is improving since getting all their players back and healthy. On the other hand, Colorado is slipping. Colorado needs a quality win to help solidify a profile that’s looking more and more shaky, and Arizona needs another quality road win to help get them back into protected seed range.
-WICHITA STATE AT LOYOLA IL (Missouri Valley). Wichita State needs to avoid bad losses the rest of the way, and that pretty much means winning out to at least the semifinals of the conference tournament.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT WYOMING (Mountain West). I think San Diego State will be on the right side of the bubble if they win out, but even that may not be enough. I don’t think they can really afford another regular season loss and then an additional loss in the conference tournament, though.
-WASHINGTON STATE AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon is looking like a solid protected seed, and they shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one.
-WASHINGTON AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve). We have an extremely bubblicious game here between two teams that desperately need this win. Washington could use a road win, and Oregon STate really needs to avoid falling to 6-9 in league play because they’re entering that range where almost no teams make the field when being more than two games below .500.