Puppet “Bracketology” Ramblings (and Highlighted Games): Friday, Feb 19th

Posted on February 19, 2016 by David Griggs

DG

Okay, for starters, we have some VERY IMPORTANT LINKS!!  READ THEM NOW!!

-For our latest Hoops HD Bracket Rundown Podcast, we had five of our staff members submitted seed lists, and had chad rank/average them altogether to build a master seed list and then a bracket.  CLICK HERE to see the bracket revealed line by line, and see Chad, myself and John discuss the teams as they are revealed.

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Yale and Princeton, which is actually a game that could mathematically eliminate up to four teams from having any chance to make the NCAA Tournament – CLICK HERE

-We updated our NCAA Tournament Survival Board last night.  This is perhaps the most valued and relied upon resource that the actual selection committee uses.  Granted, it is not on the team sheets, but it’s even bigger than that because it tells the selection committee members what team sheets they need to be looking at.  They have the internet at the hotel.  They have their smart phones.  They’re able to log onto this page and see which teams are locks, which teams they need to be considering, and which teams need to win the automatic bid in order to get in.  It is an unbelievably valuable source of information, and you can view it by CLICKING HERE

-For Joby’s Nitty Gritty Ranking – CLICK HERE

-Our friend, colleague, and Hoops HD Selection Committee member Scott Swartz has resumed his blogging!!  CLICK HERE TO CHECK IT OUT

-If you don’t know about this site, make sure you bookmark it.  MattSarzSports.com has the complete TV listings for all college basketball games each and every week.  CLICK HERE to check it out

-And last, but certainly not least, our friend Warren Nolan has what we think is the best RPI and statistical site on the internet.  It’s easy to navigate, it is well laid out, and it is free!!  CLICK HERE to check it out

 

PUPPET RAMBLINGS

-Okay, “Bracketology.”  I don’t like calling it that.  It’s not an actual thing because there is no “ology” to any of this.  There is no way to scientifically conclude what ten athletic directors/conference commissioners, who are all strangers to most of us, are going to do or why they are going to do it.  But, for reasons that I guess make sense, we’ve decided to start calling it that ourselves not because we think there is any real science to this, but because of what so many other people who visit the site understand the term “Bracketology” to mean.  So, what used to be the “BRACKET PROJECTIONS” tab is now the “BRACKETOLOGY” tab.

Bracketology, in reality, is guessing what ten strangers will do.  It’s not like predicting the weather.  I like it in the sense that I think it’s great for the casual fans.  It gives them a general idea of how good a lot of teams are, and what that means in relation to the current games that are being played.  But, it’s just that.  A GENERAL idea.  There is nothing precise or specific about it.  So, when you hear Joe Lunardi (or anyone else) say “this win moves them into the bracket,” or “this loss knocks them out, or “this team is now a #1 seed,” what they’re really saying is “I AM GUESSING that this is what ten people I don’t know would be doing right now if they were meeting right now!”  That’s why we are always conscious of saying in our write ups, podcasts, and projections that these are OUR picks, meaning this is what we would do if we were the committee.  The real committee may be doing something entirely different, and to be honest we don’t really care.  If they disagree with us, then they’re wrong, which is unfortunate for some of the teams, but there is nothing we can do about it.  The majority of the time, our own picks end up being more accurate than a lot of bracketologists who are trying to guess the real committee.

Now, having said that, this year we do have a selection committee guessing expert in Jon Teitel, and he is one of the best out there.  He considers things like who is on the committee and what he thinks they will value during what really is a qualitative process.  But, our Hoops HD selection committee is just that.  The HOOPS HD Committee.  It’s not a committee that tries to guess another committee.

Another thing about Bracketology sites that amuses me is how they feel the need to indicate who their last four teams were to make the field as at-larges.  With the First Four being formatted the way that it is, if you as a person see the four teams that are in the First Four, but are still uncertain as to which four teams were the last to be selected for at-large bids, then there truly is no helping you.  I’m sorry.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-AKRON AT KENT STATE (MAC).  This is probably the biggest rivalry in the conference, and it’s particularly high stakes because if Akron wins out they should get a serious look from the selection committee given that they are a first place finisher and will have a very strong RPI.  Historically, those teams get selected more often than not, even if they’re from the smaller conferences.

-HARVARD AT COLUMBIA (Ivy).  Columbia is still one of the horses in the three horse race to win the Ivy, but they need to keep winning and they’ll need a little help.

-RICHMOND AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  I love this series.  It is seemingly always an exciting game, and it’s a game that VCU really cannot afford to lose.

-OAKLAND AT VALPARAISO (Horizon League).  If Valpo wins out then they should at least get a look from the committee, but chances are they’ll need the automatic bid in order to make the field.

-IONA AT MONMOUTH (Metro Atlantic).  This game had some fireworks the first time these two met with Tim Cluess bashing Monmouth’s bench on Twitter before the game, and then the dust up when the two were shaking hands after the game.  The Monmouth fans will be ready for the Gaels tonight!

Posted in Bracketology, Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Puppet “Bracketology” Ramblings (and Highlighted Games): Friday, Feb 19th

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Friday, February 19: Yale at Princeton

Posted on February 19, 2016 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Yale at Princeton, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For our latest Bracket Rundown video podcast, CLICK HERE.

Friday nights are generally one of the slowest nights in college basketball, and in terms of the quantity of games tonight is no exception with only a dozen contests on the schedule.  However, in terms of Under the Radar games of note, there are several extremely good ones among those dozen, including Akron heading on the road for a huge rivalry matchup at Kent State, Valpo hosting Oakland, and Monmouth hosting the rematch of their very heated earlier game (which they won) against Iona.  Although those games may have huge implications on where teams are seeded in their conference tournaments and whether or not they may have a shot at an at-large bid, thee UTR Game of the Day may actually be the game that decides what team wins the Ivy League’s automatic bid.

Yale will be at Princeton tonight in a battle between the top two teams in the Ivy League.  Yale enters play tonight at 8-0 in conference play (joining Stephen F Austin as the only teams left in the nation that are undefeated in conference play).  They are 17-5 overall with a solid RPI of 57.  The Bulldogs’ toughest competition in the conference this season is clearly from Princeton and Columbia, and they have already knocked off both of those teams at home.  A win tonight would extend their lead to two games over the Tigers and the Lions and would mean that even if Yale lost at Columbia in a couple of weeks, the Bulldogs would still win the Ivy League and its automatic bid.  In other words, someone not named Princeton or Columbia would have to also beat them if they are to be caught this year.  Yale is led by Justin Sears who had a double-double in the earlier win at home over Princeton, and is looking to get his team into the Big Dance for the first time since 1962 — and make up for the heartbreak they suffered in the regular season finale (a last second loss at Dartmouth that forced a tie with Harvard) and the one game playoff (a 2 point loss to Harvard) last season.

Princeton currently sits at 6-1 in Ivy League play and 16-5 overall.  The Tigers actually have the conference’s best RPI at 45.  Although that normally is a number that generates a look for an at-large bid, they only have one win against the top 150 of the RPI (last week at Columbia) and are not seriously on the bubble for a bid.  At a minimum, to be “at-large worthy”, the Tigers would have to win out and finish in sole possession of first place.  Of course, if that happens, they will have clinched the automatic bid and the discussion would become moot.  Princeton is led by Henry Caruso, who had 26 points in the earlier loss at Yale.  Also, keep an eye on Pete Miller who had 20 points and 13 rebounds in last weekend’s huge overtime win over Columbia.

One final note about tonight’s game.  A win by Yale would mathematically eliminate half of the Ivy League from contention for the top spot and the automatic bid.  Harvard, Cornell, Dartmouth and Brown will all be removed from our NCAA Tournament Survival Board (335 teams remain alive entering play tonight!) with a win by Yale, or if they lose their games tonight.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Under the Radar Game of the Day – Friday, February 19: Yale at Princeton

Hoops HD Bracket Rundown: February 19th

Posted on February 18, 2016 by David Griggs

Five members of the Hoops HD Staff all submitted their seed lists to Chad Sherwood, who then ranked them and bracketed them.  Chad is joined by David and John, and after a rough start due to technical difficulties, he reveals the bracket line by line as the rest of the staff sees it for the first time.  They discuss each team as it’s revealed and talk about whether they agree or disagree with the group.

 

CLICK HERE to see the final bracket, but only if you’ve watched the show first!! 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

Posted in Bracketology, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged | 2 Comments

Throwback Thursday: The 2015 Hoops HD NCAA Selection Process

Posted on February 18, 2016 by John Stalica

Click here for today’s News and Notes in college basketball courtesy of David Griggs

Click here for Chad Sherwood’s Under The Radar Game of the Day between NJIT and North Florida

Finally, click here for this week’s can’t-miss Under The Radar Podcast

Last week, various members of the media that cover college basketball convened in New York to meet with the NCAA Men’s Basketball Committee (colloquially known as the Selection Committee – click here to view the 10 members of the Committee) to go over the selection process for the 2016 NCAA Tournament. They got to simulate the deliberations and wade through pages of reports on teams that the Selection Committee goes through every March in Indianapolis. At the end of the week, the media came up with a mock bracket based on simulated results if the season were to end last week. They took into account what would happen if a team like Monmouth were to lose in the MAAC Tournament; there were also scenarios that involved Valparaiso and Chattanooga losing their conference tournaments as well. St. Bonaventure was selected as a team that would crash the party on Selection Sunday; based on their game against La Salle last night, their only way into the NCAA Tournament is via the golden ticket that the A-10 Tournament provides.

The cast and crew of Hoops HD have also simulated the selection process for over 10 years running (some colleagues longer than others); this also goes back to the days of other websites like CrimsonCast and Draft Express. The selection process actually begins on Wednesday during Championship Week; each committee member will submit a list of up to 36 teams that each person feels would make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens during Championship Week. Committee members would also submit a list of other teams to be considered as well; these are your “bubble” teams. Since the NCAA Tournament consists of 68 teams, 32 spots are reserved for automatic bid winners (31 tournament champions plus the Ivy League regular season champion) and 36 at-large teams. Teams that have already won their conference tournaments up to that point are excluded from the first ballot; as an example last year, Gonzaga and Northern Iowa would not be on those lists since they already earned automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament. For a team to be considered a “first ballot” team in the NCAA Tournament, they must receive at least 8 out of 10 votes from the Selection Committee. Any other teams that receive at least 3 votes from Selection Committee members is placed on the “Under Consideration” board; this has also been referred to as the Cross-Country board by the Committee.

If you click here, scroll down to the attachment that shows the Under Consideration Board (which was what we had last season). On the left-hand side is a list of teams that had already won their conference tournaments up to that point. The second section includes the AT-LARGE field; teams that were listed 1-26 on the board all made it onto the board as part of the first ballot.

When our committee met for the first time on Thursday night, our first order of business was to add 10 more teams to the at-large board to get to a total of 36 at-large teams. If you look at the 3rd column labeled Under Consideration, this is the pool of teams from which the final at-large selections will be made. The Under Consideration board also includes teams who won their respective conferences in the regular season but failed to win their conference tournaments. Teams like Iona and St. Francis-Brooklyn were voted off the board because the committee felt their accomplishments didn’t merit at-large consideration; Murray State was a team that would remain under consideration during the selection process but would ultimately not get an NCAA Tournament bid. Each committee member would select the top 8 teams on the Under Consideration board; the top 8 vote-getters were debated among the committee. Committee members would not be allowed to vote on their own teams or teams from their own conference, but could supply information on said teams and conferences to the Committee for their consideration.

After the first wave of debates has taken place, each committee member (unless excluded otherwise) would rank those 8 teams in order of 1-8; the top 4 vote-getters would be added to the AT-LARGE field. This process took place on 3 occasions; we wound up adding 12 at-large teams to the board on Thursday night. However, since there were only 10 spots available, why did we vote for 12 teams? If you click here, you will see 2 spots in the AT-LARGE field marked “Big 12 +1” and “ACC +2“. This meant that as of Thursday night, the only teams remaining in the Big 12 and ACC Conference Tournaments were already on the AT-LARGE field. Since the conference champions would move from the AT-LARGE field to the AUTOMATIC BIDS side of the board, this opened up 2 additional spots in the field for Indiana and Purdue. Since the Big East also had its teams in the conference tournament already in the AT-LARGE field, this also opened up one more at-large spot that was not filled on Thursday night.

On Friday, there are two things that have to take place – more at-large teams need to be added to the field as spots from the SEC, Big 10 and Pac-12 conferences were not going to have a bid stolen in their respective conference tournaments. But more importantly, the seeding process begins for teams on the AUTOMATIC BID and AT-LARGE ledgers. Each committee member would submit their top 8 teams to the committee and then the top 8 teams would be ranked 1-8 after debating the merits of each individual team within the committee. The top 4 vote-getters would be added to the SEED LIST; click here to see the SEED LIST on the right-hand side of the board. The bottom 4 vote-getters would carry over and then each committee member would submit their next top 8 teams to the committee. The top 4 vote-getters were added to the previous 4 teams that carried over from the last step, each committee member would take the top 8 teams, debate them and rank them 1-8 as before. This process was repeated until we had the top 32 teams seeded in the field. Under this scenario, even a team like Xavier who was not on the first ballot last season could still get a higher seed as Championship Week unfolded; this was because of notable wins against Butler and Georgetown that strengthened what had been a bubblish resume. As it is, teams are rarely voted off of the board, but motions can be made to reconsider teams that don’t look as good and vote them off the AT-LARGE board and back to the UNDER CONSIDERATION board. Ole Miss and Texas were also promoted from the UNDER CONSIDERATION board to the AT-LARGE board on Friday night as well after the results of the day’s competition were complete.

On Saturday, as you can see by clicking here, the final AT-LARGE bids are added once it became apparent that the Atlantic 10 was also assured of not having a bid thief win the conference. Our committee also begins to plan for contingencies – one such scenario involved UConn winning the automatic bid out of the American conference (since they would not have earned an at-large bid); another scenario involved SMU winning the conference – Temple would have been our last at-large bid selected. This was just a coincidence; they would have ranked above Colorado State, UConn, Georgia and Illinois according to our committee. (UCLA was the 8th team out according to our committee, but that is another story.) The second contingency involved the Sun Belt championship; as of Saturday night, either Georgia State or Georgia Southern would earn the automatic bid since neither team could advance as an at-large selection. Therefore, we included UConn, Georgia State and Georgia Southern on our seed list deliberations. Throughout the day, the at-large list would begin to be “scrubbed” or adjusted as more results from the day’s games and further deliberations took place.

On Selection Sunday, further scrubbing of the seed list took place as results from the ACC, Atlantic 10 and Sun Belt championships went final. Once the seed list was finalized, two contingency brackets were prepared by the Committee. The first one here was the final bracket if UConn were to beat SMU and win the American; the second bracket here was our actual final bracket since SMU did defeat UConn instead. Our committee did not do an additional contingency for the Big 10 since we felt at the time that Virginia merited a 1-seed over Wisconsin, even if the Badgers were to win the Big 10 Championship that day.

That is a rough outline of what the real Selection Committee would go through during Championship Week; we look forward to meeting again in a couple of weeks via Skype/Google Hangouts in our own Hoops HD Universe. In the meantime, click here for a sampling of our Championship Week podcasts that will begin to air on February 29.

#MAACachusetts Forever!

Posted in Bracketology, CBB, Throwback Thursday | Comments Off on Throwback Thursday: The 2015 Hoops HD NCAA Selection Process

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Thursday, Feb 18th

Posted on February 18, 2016 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For our latest Under the Radar Video Podcast, where we discuss what was a bad week for a lot of teams that were on the bubble – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between NJIT and North Florida, which has first place implications in the Atlantic Sun – CLICK HERE

-Duke v North Carolina always seems to be an exciting game, and yesterday was no exception.  North Carolina appeared to be the better team, and they were playing at home.  They pretty much led for the entire game, but Duke was always within arms reach.  The Blue Devils finally got the lead in the final minute, and held on to win when UNC missed what would have been a game winning shot.  It is clearly the biggest win of the season for Duke, both on and off paper, and for a team that looked like they may be heading toward the bubble just a few weeks ago is once again looking like and playing like a protected seed.

-I’ve been making the case as to how great I think Oklahoma is all season long.  I still like them.  I still think that they ultimately end up as a #1 seed.  But, they’ve lost three of their last four with the most recent being at Texas Tech last night, who may be a tournament team (and likely is), but hasn’t exactly looked like a protected seed.  It was a huge win for Texas Tech, who has had quite a week these past couple days with wins at Baylor (decisively) and now against Oklahoma.  Their profile is suddenly looking amazing.

-Iowa is another team that has been on my #1 line for over a month now.  They lost at Penn State.  I still like the Hawkeyes and still think they have some amazing wins on their profile, but they’re certainly not invincible.

-Xavier knocked off Providence rather convincingly, although Providence did make a late run to make the score respectable.  Xavier, along with Villanova, are squarely in the picture for a #1 seed.

-Dayton went down at Saint Joseph’s, which was a big win for Joe’s.  It shouldn’t be too damaging for the Flyers considering they were the road team, and that they were ultimately shorthanded.  I still like this Dayton team and although I don’t think they’ll end up as a protected seed, the opportunity is still there for them.

-24 hours ago I was beginning to think that I really liked Saint Bonaventure, and would make a case to put them on the bubble, or maybe even in my field when I did my next bracket this afternoon.  Then, they lost on the road to La Salle.  That’s not good for a bubble team.  That’s really not good for any team

-Alabama got a HUGE win at LSU last night.  They have been playing amazingly well lately, and one has to admire the job Avery Johnson has done with this team, especially when you consider that they lost a key player for the season earlier in the year.  I think they’ll end up making the field based on how well they’ve been playing.

-Florida State keeps shooting themselves in the foot.  Losing at home to non-tournament teams is not what they need to be doing, yet they fell at home to Georgia Tech last night, who is an awful road team, BTW.

-I don’t know if you want to call this a collapse by Colorado, or a great comeback by USC.  It was probably a little bit of both, but USC came back to beat a Colorado team that led them for most of the game.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TENNESSEE AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky is coming off one of their most impressive wins of the year, and has looked very strong at home all season long.  If they keep going like they have been they should end up as a protected seed.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT WILLIAM & MARY (Colonial).  It will take some proper aligning from the stars, but if Wilmington wins out they should be in the discussion for an at-large.  This is one of their tougher remaining games, but judging by how well they’ve been playing it’s entirely possible that they’ll run the table through the rest of the regular season.

-MISSOURI STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita is another team that I think needs to win out through the regular season, and perhaps avoid a loss in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament.  If they do all that then they should be okay.

-LITTLE ROCK AT GEORGIA STATE (Sun Belt).  This is one of Little Rock’s tougher remaining games.  I’d like to think they’ll be safe if they win out through the regular season, but you can’t say for certain.  At the very least they should get a very serious look.

-SMU AT UCONN (American).  UConn is on the bubble, and like any bubble team they need to pick up notable wins, and avoid bad losses.  This would fall into the former category.

-MARYLAND AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  There aren’t many easy road games in the Big Ten, but this is probably one of them.  Minney’s next conference win will be their first.

-CINCINNATI AT TULSA (American).  Bubblelicious!!! Both these teams are right on the bubble.  And like any bubble team, they need notable wins, and they need to avoid bad losses.  Winning this game would really help, and losing it would really hurt.

-WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Wiscy has been playing great and just picked up a huge road win at Maryland which does a ton to help out their profile.  If they pick this one up they may shoot so far into the bubble that they’re looking like  team that will be wearing white in the round of 64.

-UMKC AT GRAND CANYON (WAC).  The Team of the People!!! Grand Canyon is right on the cusp of being the first transitional team ever (at least that we know of) to finish in the top 100 of the RPI.  And, we still haven’t given up hope!!  #LopesWaiver

-PACIFIC AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  I think the Zags will be okay for a bid if they win out, despite not having any really big wins on their profile yet.

-SAINT MARY’S AT PORTLAND (West Coast).  For the life of me I can’t figure out why people are still looking at Saint Mary’s, but they are.  Winning this game won’t help them.  Or, at least, it shouldn’t, but virtually nothing they’ve done suggests they are a tournament caliber team.

-HAWAII AT CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West).  I don’t think the committee would take Hawaii even if they win out, but if they do they should at least get a look.

-UTAH AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  Utah has a fairly healthy profile and can add another road win to it tonight.

-CALIFORNIA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Most people like Cal, but the one thing they’re really lacking is wins away from home.  Picking up a road win against a Washington team that’s on the bubble will help them out a ton because if the year ends and their only road win was at Wyoming, I don’t think that’s enough even though they’ve had several big home wins.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | 1 Comment

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Thursday, February 18: NJIT at North Florida

Posted on February 18, 2016 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: NJIT at North Florida, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For our latest Under the Radar video podcast, featuring our very own FLOOR CAM, CLICK HERE.

Tonight is one of those nights when selecting the UTR Game of the Day was not easy, with key matchups in several conferences on the slate.  However, when our adopted “Team of the People” from last season here at HOOPS HD, the NJIT Highlanders, are scheduled to play arguably the most important regular season game in school history, the choice ended up being an obvious one.  Tonight in Jacksonville, Florida, NJIT will be taking their shot at moving towards the Atlantic Sun regular season championship and the #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament.

NJIT enters play tonight with a record of 7-4 in conference play and 16-11 overall.  They are currently sitting in a three-way tie for first place with North Florida and Jacksonville.  After we had spent the non-conference portion of the season discussing how we believed this league would be a battle between NJIT and UNF this season, the Highlanders got out to a rough 2-4 start to league play, including home losses to South Carolina Upstate, Lipscomb and North Florida.  Things have been a lot different since the end of January though as Damon Lyn, Tim Coleman, Ky Howard and company have won five straight games, including a solid win this past weekend at home over Florida Gulf Coast, to move into a first place tie.  The Highlanders play at UNF tonight and at Jacksonville on Saturday.  If they can find a way to sweep these two tough road contests, then only a game next week at Upstate will stand between them and the outright regular season title.

North Florida’s story this season has been almost the exact opposite of NJIT’s.  The Ospreys started out Atlantic Sun play looking like the dominant team in the league, winning their first 7 games and doing so by fairly comfortable score margins.  Then came February 1.  In what we thought at the time was just one of the crazy inexplicable losses that teams sometimes suffer, the Ospreys fell at home to Stetson.  The only problem was they have yet to recover from that loss, dropping their next three since then and not even looking good in any of those losses.  UNF now sits at 7-4 in conference play and 18-10 overall.  The only good news is that they certainly have time to right the ship, with NJIT coming in tonight and a game at Jacksonville next week to end the regular season.  However, if they continue to play the same way they have played these past four games, Dallas Moore, Beau Beech, Chris Davenport and their teammates may not even end up with a quarterfinal-round home game in the conference tournament.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments Off on Under the Radar Game of the Day – Thursday, February 18: NJIT at North Florida