NEWS AND NOTES
-So, the big news from yesterday is that Louisville has self imposed a ban due to an ongoing investigation that involves hiring strippers to dance and perform what I’ll simply call other sorts of favors for recruits. The NCAA could tack on more penalties, but chances are there will not be any additional seasons with postseason. What this does for Louisville is that it allows them to get back to normal as an athletic department as early as April, and enter next basketball season with pretty much the same roster that they would have had anyway, but without the threat of the postseason ban. Selfishly, this makes the most sense for Louisville. The problem is that it screws over the current players, who had nothing to do with any of this. It particularly screws over Damion Lee and Trey Lewis, who enrolled at Louisville as graduate students this past fall, and are out of eligibility after this season.
I cannot help but sum this up any other way than this. Louisville screwed up, and opted to crap all over the current players who did not screw up as a means of getting back to normal as quickly as possible. And you know what?? I don’t think there’s anyone out there that believes any differently. If Louisville wanted to do the right thing, they could have waited until next season to put the ban into effect. That way the seniors could have played in the NCAA Tournament, and the underclassmen could have had the option of transferring without having to sit out a year if they so chose.
Last thing on this. I do not believe this was Rick Pitino’s decision, nor do I believe that it was Athletic Director Ton Jurich’s decision. I believe it was the University President, James Ramsey, who decided to do this, and that the individuals in Louisville’s Athletic Department would have decided differently if it were up to them.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-KANSAS AT TCU (Big Twelve). This is a rare winnable conference road game that Kansas needs to take advantage of.
-VIRGINIA AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Virginia has gone from looking sluggish on the road to looking unbelievably good on the road. Pitt’s profile keeps improving, and it can improve yet again if they’re able to pull this off. Same with UVA. Both teams appear to be solid tournament teams and both can improve their seeding with a quality win.
-FLORIDA STATE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). This is a winnable road game for the Seminoles that they need to take advantage of.
-TEMPLE AT UCF (American). Some still have Temple on their radar, and I suppose they can get inside the bubble if they win out, but anything short of that likely won’t be enough.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). This game is suddenly meaningless…..
-MARQUETTE AT XAVIER (Big East). If Xavier holds serve for the rest of the year they should do no worse than a #2 seed. If they can finish in first place, they have a real shot at a #1 seed.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). We have GW on the outside part of the bubble, and a win like this could really change the complexion of their profile and of the season. VCU has looked as good as anyone in the conference. I think they’re safely inside the bubble right now and it wouldn’t shock me to see them win out.
-CINCINNATI AT MEMPHIS (American). This is a challenging, yet winnable road game that Cincinnati really needs to pick up. They’re just inside the bubble based on our last projections.
-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). This is a challenging road game for an Iowa State team that’s played well in some losing efforts in tough road games, and could use a few more actual road wins.
-TEXAS TECH AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). At the beginning of the year we had a ton of questions about Texas. We then thought they were a possible fringe tournament team. We then thought they were a solid tournament team. We now think they are a fringe protected seeded caliber team. They just keep getting better and better as the season goes along. They lost at Texas Tech back at the start of conference play. I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble avenging that today.
-MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). This is a rivalry game between two tournament caliber teams. It doesn’t often get much better than that. Michigan State looks to be a protected seed and could use another notable road win on their paper. Michigan State is just trying to improve their seed and their profile, so both have a lot to play for both on and off paper.
-NC STATE AT DUKE (ACC). Duke, I think, is still safely inside the bubble, but they’re certainly not a protected seed. If they hold serve, which means winning against non tournament teams such as NC State, then they should be okay.
-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT FORDHAM (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s was beaten badly earlier in the week, and needs to rebound from that. I think their profile is solid, but the staff doesn’t agree with me as they barely made it into the field during our last projections, so every game is important for them the rest of the way.
-VILLANOVA AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). The first time these two met it was one of the more exciting games of the season. Providence is coming off a rather surprising loss to DePaul from earlier in the week, so getting a big win in a game like this would be a nice way to rebound.
-NEW MEXICO AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). We say this for every game the Aztecs play, but if they win out, which they’re good enough to do, I think they’ll be inside the bubble.
-FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). The Gators won what was clearly their biggest game of the season last week when they knocked off West Virginia. Now, they are looking to pick up what would prove to be a hugely important road game. Kentucky has been up and down this year. They looked great against Kansas, but then blew it against Tennessee. They have been consistently good at home, though, and will remain in good shape so long as they hold serve.
-CLEMSON AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Clemson needs road wins to end up safely inside the bubble. This is a winnable road game. They need to win it.
-PURDUE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Both teams could potentially end up as protected seeds, but both could use another marquee win or two in order to cement it. I know Maryland is ranked fourth, but they could still use a few more really big wins.
-STANFORD AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). This is a rivalry game between two teams that are outside the bubble, and desperately need notable wins between now and the end.
-VALPARAISO AT UIC (Horizon League). Valpo needs to win out in order to land safely inside the bubble.
-BUTLER AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Butler is just 4-6 in conference play and certainly can’t afford to lose any games to teams that are outside the NCAA Tournament picture. A loss in this game would really be damaging.
-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). Washington is squarely on our bubble and could use any sort of a notable win. Arizona has been slipping, and could use a notable road win to help resuscitate their resume.
-FURMAN AT CHATTANOOGA (SoCon). Chattanooga fell to Furman earlier this year, which is one of their more damaging losses. They need to win out to get any real consideration from the selection committee.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT LSU (SEC). LSU still has a lot of work to do, but making the NCAA Tournament is not entirely out of the question.
-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma continues to look like the over #1 seed. They’re on the road again. It will be a hostile environment since they’re the nation’s top ranked team. Again. But, like most games, it’s a road game that they’ll probably win.
-DAYTON AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton has been rolling over most of the A10 and they shouldn’t have too much trouble pick ing up another conference road win today.
-SOUTH ALABAMA AT LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt). UALR should be okay for a bid regardless of what happens in the conference tournament if they’re able to win out through the regular season.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). North Carolina doesn’t have a road win like this on their profile. It’s the one thing that’s missing that they need if they want to be a #1 seed. Notre Dame is safely inside the bubble, but a huge win like this could help boost their resume and improve their seed.
-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). Both teams are contending for protected seeds, and this is the kind of win that can help them end up there, especially for Baylor if they’re able to pick up another huge road win.
-INDIANA AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Indiana continues to inflate their record. They still don’t have any marquee wins against teams that are protected seeds, but their defense has improved, and they are rolling, and should pick up yet another road win tonight.
-GRAND CANYON AT UTRGV (WAC). The Team of the People had a disappointing loss on Thursday night. A win would have given them a clear shot at a first place finish. Still, they’re having an incredible year and need to bounce back tonight! #LopesWaiver
-COLORADO AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve). Oregon State is coming off a big win against Utah, but they’ve still got a lot of work to do. Colorado appears to be safely in and can help add to an already impressive profile if they’re able to pick up a road win like this.
-GEORGETOWN AT SETON HALL (Big East). We believe Georgetown to be outside the bubble, but also clearly feel they are within reach of it if they can pull off some big wins between now and the end. Seton Hall would certainly qualify. The Pirates should be safe for a bid so long as they’re able to hold serve, which means winning home games like this one.
-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). SMC cannot afford to lose too many, if any, between now and the end.
-WICHITA STATE AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita State continues to roll over the league. If they keep it up they’ll be very safely inside the field.
-GONZAGA AT PEPPERDINE (West Coast). We have Gonzaga squarely on the bubble, and they need to basically win out if they want to end up on the good side of it.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Feb 7th
NEWS AND NOTES
-Yesterday was another crazy day. Saturdays usually are, but yesterday was a day where it seemed like there was almost no chalk. So much happened that impacts the profiles of the teams we’re looking at, which is why today’s recap is a bit lengthy.
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Hofstra and James Madison – CLICK HERE
-Top ranked Oklahoma went down at Kansas State, which was a bit of a surprise in and of itself, but holistically when a team plays so many road games against so many home court heroes and has such a big bullseye on their back, chances are they’re going to lose at least one of them. You rarely see #1 seeds lose to any non-tournament teams, but I still think the Sooners are okay. In fact, considering they beat Villanova head to head, I’m guessing the committee would still have them as the overall #1 seed.
-North Carolina also went down on the road as they fell to Notre Dame. They may be in a little more trouble than the Sooners, at least in terms of ending up with a #1 seed. They still haven’t beaten a protected seed on the road. Not only that, they’ve lost road games to teams that aren’t even likely protected seeds such as Notre Dame. I don’t expect #1 seeds to win all their road games against protected seeds, but I do think they need to win more than zero, and then win the majority of all the rest. UNC has not done that, and until they do their paper is going to give me pause.
-Villanova picked up a huge road win at Providence, and actually led for the entire game in a very hostile environment. This should help their cause for a #1 seed.
-Maryland picked up another big time notable win as they downed Purdue at home yesterday. I don’t think Maryland ends up on the #1 line despite their high ranking, but this win does help their profile.
-South Carolina picked up a monster road win, which should help move them up several seed lines. They went into Texas A&M and came out with a win. They were trying to give it away at the end, but managed to hold on.
-Virginia probably won’t get a #1 seed due to their overall body of work just not being there, but this past week they’ve certainly played like one. They blasted Louisville on the road last week, and yesterday went into Pittsburgh and absolutely ran away from them. They’ve looked as good as anyone in the country over these past eight days.
-Michigan State absolutely blasted rival Michigan on the road, which feels good for two reasons. Blowing out your rival on the road is great, and picking up a big notable road win for the profile is also great.
-Wichita State, who had been rolling all over teams in their conference, blew a comfortable double digit lead in the second half and ended up falling to Illinois State 58-53. It was actually kind of alarming to see them struggle so badly after Illinois State switched up their defense. The Shockers are still okay, but they can’t afford too many more of those if they want to end up in on the first ballot.
-Indiana went to Penn State, and lost. The Hoosiers are still okay, and will still safely make the field, but other than their win at Michigan they’ve shown no ability whatsoever to actually beat the caliber of team that they’ll be playing in the round of 64,
-Arizona is battling injuries, and picked up a huge road win at Washington yesterday. I know the Wildcats are not having the season they had hoped for, but they deserve a ton of credit for what they’ve been able to do with a short handed roster.
-VCU suffered their first conference loss, which was kind of a surprise as they went down at home to George Washington. GW was right outside of our bubble, and they really needed a win like this on their prifole.
-Cincinnati is right on the bubble, and they lost to a Memphis team that isn’t even in the picture. That’s not good for the Bearcats.
-San Diego State needed overtime, and a little bit of controversy as well to get past New Mexico, but they remain unbeaten. San Diego State trailed by 5 with about 20 seconds to go in regulation, then hit a three, and then “forced” a turnover on a bizarre call on an inbounds play, that the Mountain West Conference has since acknowledged to be a mistake. Nevertheless, they forced overtime, and then won in overtime, and avoided what would have been a very damaging home loss to a non-tournament team.
-Clemson needs road wins. Clemson appeared to have a winnable road game yesterday at Virginia Tech. Clemson did not win. They can’t afford to have this few road wins on their profile, especially if they lose to non-tournament teams on the road, if they want to land inside the bubble.
-Oregon State held on to win a game against Colorado that they desperately needed. We were ready to write off the Beavers, but they had a big week this past week. Granted, the wins came at home, but I think they’ve at least played their way back into the discussion. They’re one of those bubble teams that may end up owing Louisville a big thank you.
-And, last and certainly least, Gonzaga once again looked like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament without an automatic bid as they had to squeak by Pepperdine on the road.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-EAST CAROLINA AT UCONN (American). We believe UConn to currently be inside the bubble right now, but they’re not to a point to where they can afford to lose home games to non tournament teams, especially teams as weak as East Carolina.
-IOWA AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). I’m starting to like Iowa’s chances at a #1 seed more and more, and they should get it so long as they hold serve in games like this.
-MIAMI FL AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Georgia Tech isn’t a tournament team, but they are capable of playing well at home. Still, it’s the kind of game the Canes should be expected to win if they’re a legit protected seed.
-UTAH AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). I’m starting to like Oregon more and more as the season progresses, and now think they’re good enough to land as high as the #2 line. Utah is very safely in the field as well, and will probably be wearing white in the round of 64. This is the kind of win that could really improve their seeding.