-The bracket below is Chad Sherwood’s personal bracket. It is not an attempt to forecast what the actual selection committee will do in March, but rather a checkpoint of what he personally thinks the tournament should look like if the season ended today.
Jon Teitel has also posted a bracket, where he is attempting to guess the actual committee. CLICK HERE TO VIEW HIS SEED LIST AND FIELD
-For tonight’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR game of the Day – CLICK HERE
CHAD SHERWOOD’S NOTES ON THE BRACKET
– This bracket should probably be called “The ACC Strikes Back” as after weeks of the Pac-12 having 10 teams in the field to lead the nation, this week the ACC is the conference with 10 while the Pac-12 drops to 7. Further, two of the Pac-12’s 7 teams are barely in the field, going to Dayton for First Four games.
– Two teams that continue to fall are Duke and Gonzaga. I didn’t want to put the Zags in the field, but they just don’t have as much garbage on the bottom of their resume as a lot of other teams in the race for the final spots. Duke was my very last team in above the First Four. I didn’t think they would drop that low, but the only thing saving their profile right now is a neutral court win over VCU. They also beat Indiana, but it was at home and the Hoosiers only came in on the 10 line. Butler also dropped very sharply, and needs to find a way to get to .500 in Big East play if they want to dance this year.
– In order to make the bracket work, I had to swap my top 12 seed with my bottom 11 seed. That means that Syracuse got pushed up a line and Chattanooga dropped down one. It also means that yes, I had Chattanooga inside the bubble. The more I look at their resume, the more I like it.
– Florida and Florida State were both big movers this past week as they soared up to the 9 line. Florida got the huge home win over West Virginia while the ‘noles beat Clemson and watched a bunch of other teams drop below them.
– Clemson would have a historically bad RPI for an at-large team right now (88) but with 6 top 50 wins, three of which are against the top 25, I just couldn’t keep them out. That being said, they have very little margin for error with two very bad losses at the bottom of their resume.
– The top teams out were, in order, Marquette, Oregon State, Wisconsin and Georgetown. They were followed by Cal, UCLA, Vandy and LSU. Yes, Marquette just missed the field after beating Butler, but could drop right out of the picture again with games at Seton Hall and at Xavier this week. Wisconsin is also suddenly very seriously on my radar thank to a four game win streak. With home games against Ohio State and Nebraska this week, the Badgers could start popping up in brackets around the country very soon.
– Finally, although not set up intentionally, I need to dedicate the potential Round of 32 game in the Midwest Region in St. Louis to our colleague John Stalica.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Okay, let’s begin with Chad’s #16 line, which may sound crazy, but there’s a reason for this. He has New Mexico State in out of the WAC. That is a sensible pick, but only if the Lopes fail to get a waiver. Help the Lopes get a waiver!!! CLICK HERE to sign the petition!! Only 99,931 more signatures to go!!!
-Duke on the #12 line. Wow! I don’t have Duke as a protected seed, but I do think they are a first ballot team. None of their losses are all that damaging, and their profile seems to at least be as good as Wichita, Louisville, Saint Joe’s, etc.
-I’m starting to like Texas more and more. I think Chad has them appropriately placed for now, but I’m expecting them to move up as the season continues because I think they’re good enough to add some more quality wins to their profile.
-Pittsburgh does not seem like a #5 seed, especially with how weak their OOC schedule was. They do have two nice road wins, but that alone usually isn’t enough to land a team on the #5 line. Now, having said that, when you look at everyone below them, I’m having a hard time finding anyone to move up. So, maybe they belong their by default.
-This is unfortunate, and I’m really starting to worry, but I can’t find much fault with Chad’s bracket. It’s not from a lack of trying. Whenever we disagree, he’s usually wrong, and he’s wrong quite often. But, I don’t see all that much that’s wrong with this.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I know Duke is low-hanging fruit on many bracketologists’ radars, but I cannot drop the Blue Devils as far low as just above the First Four (especially in the company of Butler, Gonzaga and Stanford; I’m still not sold on the Cardinal). Maybe that’s because I value Indiana and VCU more highly than Chad does. At the very least, if you have Georgetown just missing the cut, can you not give Duke credit for beating the Hoyas?
– Also note that I didn’t list Washington among those teams above; they are a much better team than those 3 teams right now. Even with a couple of stinkers on their profile, they’ve done more than enough to make up for it with a split against Texas and wins against USC, Colorado and a sweep of UCLA.
– I really do appreciate Chad’s efforts to match up Xavier with Little Rock, but I appreciate his first round matchup of Notre Dame and Valpo even more. I don’t know if Notre Dame will be able to win the ACC again to offset an abysmal noncom schedule.
– I know we’re talking checkpoints here, but I have a hard time justifying Iowa State this high right now after losing at Texas A&M. Their best win was at Cincinnati, and they just finished the easiest half of the Big 12 schedule as it relates to the top half of that conference. They’re done with Oklahoma, but they still have to go to Kansas, Baylor and a desperate Texas Tech team. Oh, and they also have to play West Virginia twice.
– Maybe it’s because I’m a Big East homer (and this is also directed at Joe Lunardi), but why no love for Seton Hall? Based on what they’ve done so far, they have notable wins at Providence and even at Creighton along with a win against a healthy Wichita State team that is finally looking like it’s capable of doing damage in the postseason. The Pirates’ only real cardinal sin was losing against Long Beach State in Charleston in November, but they’ve more than made up for that game.
– I think Chad is undervaluing Indiana even with a bloated overall record and Big Ten record, but they’ll have their feet thrown into the fire when they go to Michigan later this week. I think he has the Wolverines about where I’d have them, but they can really make hay if they’re able to beat Indiana and Michigan State at home this week.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Feb 3rd
NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Bucknell and American – CLICK HERE
-We will be recording our Under the Radar Video Podcast tonight, so it should be posted late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Be on the lookout for that.
-Providence wins at Villanova. Providence beats a full strength Arizona team on a neutral floor. Providence wins at Butler. Providence LOSES at….DePaul?? There are head scratchers. There is Cluessing. And then there is I guess the next level, which is what Providence did last night. It by no means changes the course of their season nor negates all the good things they’ve done, but it is a setback, and it is really bizarre.
-Kentucky followed up their very impressive showing in an overtime loss at Kansas, with a very impressive start to the game at Tennessee. They then failed to hold on, and Tennessee ended up getting a feel good win at home, and Kentucky adds yet another road loss to a non tournament team to their profile.
-West Virginia picked up a monster road win at Iowa State, which is a nice way to rebound after getting blitzed at Florida over the weekend.
-Indiana picked up a big road win at Michigan, which included a nine minute stretch at the end of the first half where Michigan scored just one point. The Hoosiers really needed that one.
-Butler picked up a much needed win at home against Georgetown and quite frankly looked as good in that game as they have in any game since conference play began.
-Clemson needed a road win at Wake Forest, and got it. It’s not that it was a big win in and of itself, but it’s just Clemson’s second one of the season, and it’s important that they demonstrate they can beat non tournament teams on the road.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East). Xavier is still in the hunt for a first place finish in the Big East, as well as a #1 seed in the NCAAs. They have one of their more winnable remaining games of the season tonight.
-ARKANSAS AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida is coming off a much needed signature win against West Virginia, and needs to hold serve (which they’ve done all year) against an Arkansas team that has struggled on the road this year.
-NOTRE DAME AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Both teams have good profiles, and although Miami has slipped recently they still have a good shot at ending up as a protected seed if they’re able to finish strong.
-DAVIDSON AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). GW has a lot of work to do. Davidson has so much work to do that anything short of winning out likely won’t be enough.
-VCU AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten). I really like how VCU has been playing, and expect that they’ll pick up another road win and remain unbeaten in A10 play.
-PENN STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten). I like Iowa’s chances to end up on the #1 line, and don’t expect them to be challenged tonight.
-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Once upon a time this rivalry had a little heat to it, so it’s always somewhat fun when they get together. Saint Joe’s is having a great season and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up this win at home against a Saint Bona program that’s improving, but isn’t quite there yet.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia is coming off what is perhaps their biggest win and best played game of the year. They come home tonight for one of their more winnable conference games.
-CREIGHTON AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Like Xavier, Nova is right in the race for a first place finish and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they need to hold serve in games like this. Creighton is way outside looking in, but they can still get onto, or even inside of the bubble if they can rack up some major wins such as this. Now, that’s much easier said than done, but the opportunities are there.
-MARYLAND AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Maryland’s profile is good, but if they want to get as high as the #2 or #1 line they can’t afford to lose games like this, even if it is a road game.
-MARQUETTE AT SETON HALL (Big East). Marquette has a ton of work to do, and you have to question whether or not they’re strong enough to finish it off, but the opportunities are there. I like this Seton Hall team, and actually think they’re being somewhat undervalued. Now, having said that, it is very important that they hold serve in this game and get it done in order to remain strongly in the picture.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). I for one don’t think Texas Tech even belongs in the discussion right now, much less in the field, but some are still projecting them in the field. They absolutely must win tonight. I think we can agree on that.
-KANSAS STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). This is a rivalry. There is some heat there. But, it’s a fairly lopsided rivalry. Kansas is always better, and even when K State does occasionally win, they almost never do so at Kansas. Kansas is solidly in the protected seed range. K State is nowhere near the field.
-SOUTHENR ILLINOIS AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Wichita has been blowing through conference play and I don’t expect that to change tonight.
-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). Arizona is still shorthanded due to injuries, and is just 4-4 in their last eight games. The last thing the need right now is a damaging road loss.
-ARIZONA STATE AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). Washington remains squarely on our bubble, and like any bubble team every game has a pivotal feel to it.