News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Jan 27th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For the latest Hoops HD Report Video Podcast, where we report on and analyze all of the major conferences – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Jacksonville and Florida Gulf Coast – CLICK HERE

-Virginia picked up a much needed road win, and did so under what were perhaps the most improbable circumstances of all time.  They were down by 7, without the ball, with just 21 seconds to play.  They got a turnover, hit a three, fouled, got the rebound after two missed freethrows, hit a three, fouled again, got the rebound after one missed freethrow, and hit a three at the buzzer.  They then dropped the mic and walked off the stage.  Wake Forest is probably still stunned.

-Xavier had an impressive season profile coming into last night, but it’s looking even better now after they knocked off Providence on the road.  The Musketeers led throughout the entire game, which was impressive, and survived a big charge at the end by Providence to hold on for one of their biggest regular season wins in years.

-Creighton also collapsed in the final minutes of their game against Georgetown, albeit not nearly as drastically as Wake Forest did.  The Hoyas escape with a win that they really needed, and Creighton passed up what would have been a huge road win for them that would have kept them near the top of the Big East standings.

-Indiana fell on the road in overtime to Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers aren’t in any danger, but that is a road win that they really could have used.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (Southwest Conference SEC).  TAMU is now ranked #5, and is looking as good as just about anyone in the country minus maybe Oklahoma. Arkansas is having kind of a down year, but they are still a respective 8-2 at home this year, so TAMU should get some credit if they pull it off.

-TEMPLE AT EAST CAROLINA (American).  Temple sits at a modest 11-7 right now, and they still have a very long way to go, but they’re playing great basketball and if they can blow through the rest of their conference schedule they should be in the picture at the end of the year.

-SAINT LOUIS AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton is well inside the bubble and depending on how strong they finish they could have an argument for a protected seed.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble tonight.

-PITTSBURGH AT CLEMSON (ACC).  Clemson is squarely on our bubble right now, and if they keep it up they’ll be safely inside of it.  Pitt is a team with a bloated record that could use a notable road win or two to really help improve the complexion of their profile.  There’s something to be gained by both these teams.

-RUTGERS AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan is in good shape and needs to hold serve at home against non tournament teams.

-DEPAUL AT BUTLER (Big East).  Butler is in a bit of a tailspin as they sit at just 2-5 in Big East play.  Much of that is symptomatic of a front loaded schedule though.  That being said, they absolutely cannot afford to lose this one.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall appears to be rolling and should be in great shape for the NCAA Tournament.  Having said that, they do need to hold serve at home against non tournament (or in this case non NIT) teams.

-UMASS AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten).  At 16-3, Saint Joseph’s is looking very much like an NCAA Tournament team.  I don’t expect them to have too much trouble at home against UMass.

-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  VA Tech isn’t a tournament team, but they’re tough to beat at home, and it would be a good win for a Louisville team that really needs to add some meat to their profile.

-MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  It’s a conference game, but it isn’t likely to be a challenging one for Kentucky, who’s unbeaten at home and taking on a Missouri team that’s winless on the road.

-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve).  Every road game is a big test in the Big Twelve, and although Oklahoma State isn’t a tournament team, they’re still tough to beat at home.  Just ask Kansas.  Baylor’s profile has improved a ton since they picked up two big road wins the other week, and they could give it another boost tonight.

-PURDUE AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  This is one of the more winnable conference road game for the Boilers so it’s important that they take advantage of it.

-STANFORD AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve).  This is an important Pac Twelve team between two of the several teams that are hovering around the bubble.  We believe Colorado is in, and that Stanford is just out, but both still have work to do if they want to feel safe, and that means winning games like this.

-LOYOLA IL AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita State is a dangerous, and perhaps forgotten team that has been blowing through conference play.  Their losses came when they weren’t at full strength, and the committee will take that into account.  If they continue to blow through the league I think they make it in without any problems.

-CALIFORNIA AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  Utah picked up some big road wins which hugely boosted their profile.  Cal is still on the bubble, and the one thing they need is road wins.  To pick up a quality one like this at Utah would greatly improve their resume.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, January 27: Jacksonville at Florida Gulf Coast

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Jacksonville at Florida Gulf Coast, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Heading into the season, and even during the months of November and December we were convinced that the Atlantic Sun would be a two team race between the North Florida Ospreys and the NJIT Highlanders.  North Florida has certainly lived up to expectations, off to a 6-0 start in conference play.  Last year’s “Team of the People” here at HoopsHD, however, has struggled early in their first season in the ASun, as NJIT currently sits tied for fourth place at 2-3.  Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day is the battle for second place in the conference standings as the FGCU Eagles will be hosting the Jacksonville Dolphins.

Florida Gulf Coast enters play tonight with a record of 13-8 overall and 4-1 in A-Sun play.  The Eagles had run off seven straight wins before falling for the first time in league play this weekend, 91-75 at Lipscomb.  Marc-Eddy Norelia has been their standout player so far this season.  Norelia has 7 double-doubles on the year.  Christian Terrell is a solid outside shooter and perhaps the team’s biggest threat from beyond the arc.  Zach Johnson and Julian DeBose are also solid players for this team, giving them enough depth to battle for second place, even if surpassing North Florida for the top of the league standings may be a stretch.

The Jacksonville Dolphins are 11-11 overall and 3-2 in conference play, meaning a win tonight would move them into a tie with Gulf Coast for second place.  Despite only winning four Division 1 games during the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Dolphins have won three of their last four including a 10 point road win this past weekend at South Carolina Upstate.  The Dolphins have a lot more long-range firepower than FGCU, with Marcel White being deadly from beyond the arc.  The Dolphins also had the nation’s top three-pointer scorer in Darius Dawkins, until he went out with an injury back on January 14.  He has not played since then.  Senior Kori Babineaux is not a three-point shooter, but has scored in double figures all but twice so far this season.  The Dolphins will certainly score points — but whether they can outscore FGCU on the road tonight or not is another question entirely.

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The Hoops HD Report: January 27th

Chad is joined by David, John, and at long last Lee Delvecchio.  They begin by looking at some of the bizarre finishes we’ve seen over the past few days, particularly Virginia overcoming a 7 point deficit in just the last 20 seconds to beat Wake Forest.

Then, they get right into the major conferences.  They talk about how they feel Oklahoma is still the dominant team even though they have two losses, and reiterate just how hard it is to win on the road in college basketball.  They discuss Xavier’s big win at Providence, what North Carolina needs to do in order to end up as a #1 seed, Duke’s struggles, Texas A&M’s fantastic season and how even though they’re ranked in the top ten they still may be underrated, how the Pac Twelve has as many as ten teams that are still within reach of making the NCAA Tournament, VCU and how well they’re playing, and much more……

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show….

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games

NEWS AND NOTES

-Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings have been updated.  CLICK HERE TO CHECK THEM OUT

-We will be recording our weekly Hoops HD Report Video Podcast tonight, which is a day later than usual.  Be on the lookout for it.

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Northern Illinois and Akron – CLICK HERE

-Duke lost at Miami last night in a result that should surprise absolutely no one.  Duke is in no danger whatsoever of missing the field, but they are not likely to end up as a protected seed unless they find themselves and start knocking off the likes of UNC on the road, Virginia, and then winning the ACC Tournament.  Duke is having a down year, but if you can have a down year and still safely be inside the bubble, then that’s a sign that your program is amazingly solid.

-Another not so surprising result was Iowa State’s win at home over Kansas.  Kansas was the higher ranked team, and Kansas is probably the better team.  I know people consider this yet another upset, but it’s not.  I continue to not understand how people do not understand how difficult it is to win on the road.  When the atmosphere is supporting the home team and suffocating the opponent, AND when the court and arena are familiar to the home team and not to their opponent, those are two variables that strongly favor the home team.  That is why the home team wins so often.  That’s why teams that end up miles from even make the NIT still manage to win the majority of their home games.  Beating a team at home does not mean you’re better than the other team.  It just means that you’re able to beat them when you have two very big advantages going your way with the crowd and the familiarity with the arena.  When a team like Kansas goes on the road and loses to a team that almost never loses at home, we need to stop looking at that as an upset.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-XAVIER AT PROVIDENCE (Big East)  (***Spotlight Game***).  Both teams are ranked in the top ten, and both look like they’ll end up as protected seeds.  Xavier still has a shot at the #1 line, but this is the kind of game they need to win in order to end up there.  The last time the Musketeers played a protected seed on the road things did not go so well at Villanova.  These are incredibly tough games to win, which is why the teams that can win one or two of them end up as #1 seeds.  Providence just got a major #1 seed caliber road win when they knocked off Villanova in overtime over the weekend.  The problem with Providence is that they strangely seem to struggle more at home than on the road.  It should be a fun game between two teams that are having great years.

-CREIGHTON AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  Both these teams have a long way to go to the point to where they’re in the NCAA Tournament picture, but they will get the opportunities they need, and this is a big game for both of them.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC).  South Carolina is still very safely inside the bubble and should remain there so long as they hold serve.  Mississippi State has yet to win a road game, so the Gamecocks certainly don’t want to slip up.

-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve).  Other than a win at Georgia, Kansas State has been weak away from home, and if they are going to end up in the NCAA Tournament then they’ll need a huge road win in a game like this.  WVU is still looking like a very solid protected seed.

-TEXAS TECH AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma remains number one, and deservedly so.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble against a Texas Tech team that’s been weak on the road all year long.

-INDIANA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Indiana has pulled off a bunch of wins, but most of them weren’t really big tests.  Tonight’s isn’t necessarily a huge test, but it’s a much bigger test than the Hoosiers have had in months.

-VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Virginia desperately needs some road wins on their profile if they want to end up as a protected seed.  Wake Forest needs wins of any kind, and lots of them, if they want to even be considered to make the field.

-FLORIDA STATE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  This is simply a road game that Florida State cannot afford to not win.

-TCU AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  The Longhorns are on a roll and shouldn’t have too much trouble against a TCU team that’s been awful away from home this year.

-GEORGIA AT LSU (SEC).  LSU is still on the outside looking in, but they’re at least able to see inside a little better now.  They’d have to thunder down the stretch, but they can still play their way into the discussion.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEVADA (Mountain West).  I highlight this game because I think if San Diego State runs the table they’ll end up inside the bubble, and because I think San Diego State is playing well enough to run the table.  Nevada isn’t a tournament team by any stretch of the imagination, but to date they have just one home loss, so it would be a somewhat notable win for the Aztecs if they pull it off.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, January 26: Northern Illinois at Akron

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Northern Illinois at Akron, 7:00 PM Eastern, free streaming at gozips.com

There are few conferences in the country that are poised to have as exciting of a conference race during the final 6 weeks of the regular season as the Mid-American Conference.  Entering play today, every team other than Miami (Ohio) and Western Michigan has a winning overall record and eight teams are withing 1-2 games of first place in their divisions.  In looking at RPI as a way to try to figure out who may be the best of this group, three teams stand out as being in the top 100 — Kent State and Akron in the East Division and Northern Illinois in the West.  The tightness in the standings and the ratings makes today’s cross-division battle between NIU and Akron even more intriguing.

As we have highlighted several times this season, the Northern Illinois story is one of those feel-good ones, coming from a program that has spent over a decade being among the worst in the country.  The Huskies enter play tonight at 16-3 overall and 5-1 in the MAC West, in sole possession of first place in that division.  The team is one win away from clinching its first winning record since 2003 and is clearly on pace for the school’s fourth-ever 20+ win season.  They may even be able to take a shot at the school record of 25 wins that Jim Molinari led the Huskies to back in 1991.  The Huskies are led by Marin Maric, who has six double-doubles on the season.   However, they have proven that they do not need to rely on him.  Last time out, in a win over Toledo, Maric was help to only 4 points and 4 rebounds.  Senior Travon Baker helped pick up the load, scoring 21 points and pulling down 9 boards.  Aaric Armstead added 12 points and 8 rebounds as well, as the Huskies showed that they are deep enough to seriously contend for the conference title.

Akron enters play today at 15-4 overall and 4-2 in MAC play, one game behind Kent State for the East Division lead.  The Zips are a deadly three-point shooting team, with as many as five different players that have the ability to drill the long ball.  Their shooters are complemented by Isaiah Johnson down low, who is a double-double threat every time he takes thee court.  This team is very deep as well — in fact, their top three scorers from the weekend win over Miami (Ohio) all came off the bench.  Akron can solidify its position as one of, if not the, team to beat in the MAC East with a win tonight over the Huskies.

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Hoops HD Bracket Projections (John Stalica): January 25th

LINKS

-For today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

The following Bracket is JOHN STALICA’S bracket of what he personally thinks the bracket SHOULD look like if today were Selection Sunday.  It is not an attempt to guess what the actual Selection Committee will do in March.

 

COMMENTS FROM JOHN (comments and criticisms from the rest of the staff are posted below)

– Providence was the big mover this weekend. While I was already a big fan of what they’ve accomplished this year, their win at Villanova (albeit at the Wells Fargo Center) may well be the single best win we’ve had this year away from home, maybe a little more so than Texas going into West Virginia and winning. There is no rest for the weary – we are certain to have a Top 10 matchup when Xavier visits Providence tomorrow night.

– With Oregon getting a sweep of the SoCal schools this weekend, I would have them as the auto-bid winner out of the Pac-12 as of this week. With their win at a Utah team that had a great weekend of their own, I think the Ducks are now more worthy of a seed that the metrics would suggest they deserve.

– It was also not a good week in terms of at-large consideration for teams like Monmouth, Valparaiso and Texas-Arlington. I still believe that Monmouth has one more strike that they can absorb in MAAC play before falling below the at-large threshold should they not win their conference tournament. Valpo is right on the cut line, but they cannot lose to anyone else in the Horizon and expect an at-large should they not survive Motor City Madness.

 

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My First 4 teams out: GW, Florida State, Gonzaga, Stanford

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Generally there are several things that jump out at me that makes me think the person who posted the bracket must be eating shrooms, but I agree with just about everything John did.

-North Carolina’s paper doesn’t exactly scream #1 seed.  They don’t have that monster road win that you normally see from a #1 seed, but they could certainly end up getting it before the year is over.  I think their team is better than what their current paper indicates.

-Monmouth on the #9 line might seem high given that they have three rather bad losses, but all those losses were on the road, and they have some wins that are much better than anyone else around them.  For instance, no one on the #7 line has the bad losses that Monmouth has, but none of them have as many good wins either, so a strong argument can be made that the #9 line is where they belong.

-I’m not as big on Saint Joseph’s.  I just don’t think they have the wins that other the other teams inside the bubble have.  They are an impressive 6-0 in true road games, and that includes a very good win at Temple who has just one other home loss, but they still haven’t beaten any teams that are actually inside the bubble yet.

-I haven’t been big on Oregon at all this year, but they went on the road and picked up several big wins, which completely changes the complexion of their profile.  I don’t like them quite as much as John does, but they’re definitely much higher up on my seed list now.

-Arizona on the #6 line makes sense as far as their current paper, but like North Carolina, I think Arizona’s team is better than their paper.  If I’m right, then they have the rest of the year to prove it.

 

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