Hoops HD Bracket Projections (John Stalica): January 25th

LINKS

-For today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

The following Bracket is JOHN STALICA’S bracket of what he personally thinks the bracket SHOULD look like if today were Selection Sunday.  It is not an attempt to guess what the actual Selection Committee will do in March.

 

COMMENTS FROM JOHN (comments and criticisms from the rest of the staff are posted below)

– Providence was the big mover this weekend. While I was already a big fan of what they’ve accomplished this year, their win at Villanova (albeit at the Wells Fargo Center) may well be the single best win we’ve had this year away from home, maybe a little more so than Texas going into West Virginia and winning. There is no rest for the weary – we are certain to have a Top 10 matchup when Xavier visits Providence tomorrow night.

– With Oregon getting a sweep of the SoCal schools this weekend, I would have them as the auto-bid winner out of the Pac-12 as of this week. With their win at a Utah team that had a great weekend of their own, I think the Ducks are now more worthy of a seed that the metrics would suggest they deserve.

– It was also not a good week in terms of at-large consideration for teams like Monmouth, Valparaiso and Texas-Arlington. I still believe that Monmouth has one more strike that they can absorb in MAAC play before falling below the at-large threshold should they not win their conference tournament. Valpo is right on the cut line, but they cannot lose to anyone else in the Horizon and expect an at-large should they not survive Motor City Madness.

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 12.10.16 PM

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 12.10.02 PM

My First 4 teams out: GW, Florida State, Gonzaga, Stanford

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Generally there are several things that jump out at me that makes me think the person who posted the bracket must be eating shrooms, but I agree with just about everything John did.

-North Carolina’s paper doesn’t exactly scream #1 seed.  They don’t have that monster road win that you normally see from a #1 seed, but they could certainly end up getting it before the year is over.  I think their team is better than what their current paper indicates.

-Monmouth on the #9 line might seem high given that they have three rather bad losses, but all those losses were on the road, and they have some wins that are much better than anyone else around them.  For instance, no one on the #7 line has the bad losses that Monmouth has, but none of them have as many good wins either, so a strong argument can be made that the #9 line is where they belong.

-I’m not as big on Saint Joseph’s.  I just don’t think they have the wins that other the other teams inside the bubble have.  They are an impressive 6-0 in true road games, and that includes a very good win at Temple who has just one other home loss, but they still haven’t beaten any teams that are actually inside the bubble yet.

-I haven’t been big on Oregon at all this year, but they went on the road and picked up several big wins, which completely changes the complexion of their profile.  I don’t like them quite as much as John does, but they’re definitely much higher up on my seed list now.

-Arizona on the #6 line makes sense as far as their current paper, but like North Carolina, I think Arizona’s team is better than their paper.  If I’m right, then they have the rest of the year to prove it.

 

Posted in Bracketology | Tagged | Comments Off on Hoops HD Bracket Projections (John Stalica): January 25th

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Jan 25th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Lamar and SFA – CLICK HERE

-John Stalica’s latest bracket projections will be posted later this afternoon.  Be on the lookout for it.

-If you’re an SMU fan, you’re not going to like this, but I don’t care.  People say that Temple ruined SMU’s perfect season.  In reality, SMU’s season was rather imperfect before they even played their first game.  Not being able to play in the postseason no matter what you do is the exact opposite of perfect.  I’m a very big critic of the NCAA, but in this case I find it very hard to believe that this is an unfortunate and unfair misstep.  There are two rather ugly variables in play here.  SMU with their history, and Larry Brown with his history.  For programs that have gotten themselves in trouble and then have had everyone scatter while new people come in and have to clean up the mess, I’m sympathetic and supportive of those individuals.  But, that’s not the case with SMU.  The people that made the mess are still there, and in my opinion they shouldn’t be going to the postseason, even if they are the best team on the court.  Grand Canyon deserves it a lot more than they do.

It was a nice win for Temple, and it’s the kind of win that will get them a look if they win out.  I like Temple’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament a lot more than SMU’s. (rimshot)

-Utah needed quality wins, and they needed a road win, and they got both yesterday with their overtime win against Washington.  That completely changes the complexion of the Utes’ profile.  I must say that I’m surprises they pulled it out.  For a second there I thought things were getting a little too intense.

-Providence is inexplicably better on the road than they are at home this year.  Their overtime win at Villanova yesterday is the kind of stuff that #1 seeds are made of.  The problem is that they have losses at home to teams that, while good, are nowhere close to being protected seeds.  Fortunately for Providence, the NCAA Tournament games won’t be home games.

-I was about ready to write off Oregon State, but they absolutely trounced a very good USC team at home yesterday.  Granted, they were at home, but it was still a big win.  In other news, back in November I never thought I would be saying something along the lines of “what a big win for Oregon State that was!!  Over USC!!”  If I had I think Chad, John, Joby, and CO. would have wanted to send me back to rehab.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-DUKE AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Miami looks to be better than Duke at this point, but on the court and on paper.  Duke can still end up as a protected seed, but they probably need a road win like this on order to be able to secure it.  Two ranked ACC teams.  Business as usual, I guess.

-KANSAS AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve).  This is another monster road test for the Jayhawks, and I think if they want to end up on the #1 line they need to win at least one of these huge road games (Iowa State, Oklahoma, or Baylor).  They’ve already fallen at West Virginia, and they certainly don’t need to win ALL of those, but the teams who end up on the #1 line generally manage to win one game like that.  It should be another crazy atmosphere and another fun game.

Posted in Commentary, Daily Rundown, News and Notes | 1 Comment

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, January 25: Lamar at Stephen F Austin

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Lamar at Stephen F Austin, 8:00 PM Eastern, espn3

The UTR Game of the Day returns to the Southland Conference tonight as the battle for first place continues to intensify.  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Houston Baptist and Stephen F Austin all enter play today undefeated in league play.  The SFA Lumberjacks currently sit at 13-5 overall with the conference’s to KenPom rating at 100.  Although a huge test looms this weekend in Corpus Christi, tonight Thomas Walkup and company will be hosting the Lamar Cardinals.  Lamar enters play at 10-9 overall but only 2-5 in conference play.  The Cardinals are led by Nick Garth who has scored in double-digits in 6 out of 7 SLC games so far.  The Cardinals will be in for a huge challenge tonight in Nacogdoches, Texas, but if they can score the upset victory, it could have implications for the rest of the season as at least three teams battle for the stop two spots in the league and the byes into the conference tournament semifinals.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Version 4.0)

OTHER VERY IMPORTANT LINKS

-For a rundown of all of today’s college hoops action, as well as a look back at the News and Notes from yesterday – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between UIC and Wright State – CLICK HERE

 

Welcome back to another year of NCAA tourney predictions. Last year HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, including 62 right on the money or within 1 spot of their actual seed. He will spend the next 7 weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, with new updates each week. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today, and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To compare how we stack up with other websites, check out: www.bracketmatrix.com.

68 logo

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Oklahoma (Big 12)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: North Carolina (ACC)
1: Kansas (Big 12)

2: Xavier (Big East)
2: Iowa (Big 10)
2: Texas A&M (SEC)
2: Michigan State (Big 10)

3: Maryland (Big 10)
3: Virginia (ACC)
3: West Virginia (Big 12)
3: Iowa State (Big 12)

4: Miami Florida (ACC)
4: Oregon (Pac-12)
4: USC (Pac-12)
4: Arizona (Pac-12)

5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Purdue (Big 10)
5: Louisville (ACC)
5: Dayton (A-10)

6: Baylor (Big 12)
6: Providence (Big East)
6: Duke (ACC)
6: South Carolina (SEC)

7: Pitt (ACC)
7: Indiana (Big 10)
7: Utah (Pac-12)
7: Texas (Big 12)

8: Butler (Big East)
8: Michigan (Big 10)
8: Notre Dame (ACC)
8: Colorado (Pac-12)

9: Florida (SEC)
9: Wichita State (MVC)
9: St. Mary’s (WCC)
9: Texas Tech (Big 12)

10: Gonzaga (WCC)
10: California (Pac-12)
10: George Washington (A-10)
10: St. Joseph’s (A-10)

11: Valparaiso (Horizon)
11: Seton Hall (Big East)
11: Connecticut (AAC)
11: UCLA (Pac-12)
11: Washington (Pac-12)
11: Florida State (ACC)

12: Monmouth (MAAC)
12: San Diego State (MWC)
12: Arkansas Little-Rock (Sun Belt)
12: VCU (A-10)

13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: Hawaii (Big West)
13: William & Mary (CAA)
13: UAB (CUSA)

14: IPFW (Summit)
14: Stony Brook (America East)
14: Princeton (Ivy)
14: Northern Illinois (MAC)

15: Belmont (OVC)
15: Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (Southland)
15: North Florida (Atlantic Sun)
15: Weber State (Big Sky)

16: UNC Asheville (Big South)
16: Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
16: Navy (Patriot)
16: Wagner (NEC)
16: Hampton (MEAC)
16: Texas Southern (SWAC)

CONFERENCE: # OF TEAMS
AAC: 1
America East: 1
ACC: 8
Atlantic Sun: 1
A-10: 4
Big East: 5
Big Sky: 1
Big South: 1
Big 10: 6
Big 12: 7
Big West: 1
CAA: 1
CUSA: 1
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
MAAC: 1
MAC: 1
MEAC: 1
MVC: 1
MWC: 1
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pac-12: 8
Patriot: 1
SEC: 4
SoCon: 1
Southland: 1
SWAC: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 1
WCC: 2
WAC: 1

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-24 at 10.57.48 AM

Screen Shot 2016-01-24 at 10.58.04 AM

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-We’ve never done this with Jon Teitel’s brackets, but I do feel compelled to comment.  For starters, I understand (and would like to reiterate) that Jon is attempting to GUESS the ACTUAL COMMITTEE, and he’s damn good at it.  He’s better at it than the major media guys that do it.  The rest of us here put together brackets based on our own personal analysis and thoughts.  With that being said….

If today were Selection Sunday, and the actual committee put Texas Tech on the #9 line, then I think we’d need to completely restructure this whole damn thing!!  I know Texas Tech has some supporters among our staff, but they have done absolutely NOTHING that any NIT team couldn’t also do.  They have just one true road win, and that was at TCU.  They have two additional neutral floor wins against Minnesota and Mississippi State, but those two teams are a combined 3-14 away from home.  Their best win is perhaps a home win against Little Rock.  It was at Texas Tech, but at least Little Rock has a winning record away from home.  Of their eight other wins, all were at home, none were against teams that are inside the bubble, and only South Dakota State has a winning record on the road.  You shouldn’t get credit for beating teams at home that lose more than half their road games, and that’s all Texas Tech has done!!

Now again, this is not Jon’s personal pick, and the committee did take an equally abysmal UCLA team from last year.  I know UCLA made the Sweet Sixteen, but to me that does not justify the selection.  It should be based on merit and not potential future tournament success.  If today were Selection Sunday, and the committee not only selected Texas Tech, but placed them on the #9 line, I think a little part of me inside would die.  It’s basically saying that if you’re in a strong conference then all you need to do is win a bunch of home games against teams that are weak on the road.

I’m not big on Saint Mary’s either for pretty much the same reasons, but at least they have one notable win against Gonzaga (albeit at home).  They also have a few other road wins against teams that aren’t tournament teams, but that have been strong at home.  If this were debate class, and I were given the assignment of arguing for Saint Mary’s, I would at least have something to argue.  It would be weak, but at least there is SOMETHING there.  With Texas Tech, there is nothing there.

For the most part I like the rest of the field, and it gives me confidence that the committee will make some good picks and seed them accordingly.  I think Monmouth is better than their seed, but with three bad losses I can see why the committee would knock them all the way down to the #12 line.  I also like Valpo more than a #11 seed, but I can see why Jon would think the committee would have them there.

 

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Version 4.0)

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 24th

NEWS AND NOTES

For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

For Jon Teitel’s latest seed list, where he is guessing what the real selection committee would do if the season ended today – CLICK HERE (Bracket Coming Soon)

-One of the craziest and most important game from yesterday is one that almost no one saw.  Little Rock went into Arlington and jumped all over them.  They actually built a 42-14 lead in the first half.  UT Arlington mounted a furious comeback late in the second half, and a 13-0 run helped cut an 18 point lead all the way down to 3.  Little Rock did hold on to win, which gives them a much needed quality road win, which will help them on Selection Sunday if they end up needing the automatic bid.

-Oklahoma looked like the #1 team when they opened up a huge second half lead against a very good Baylor team on the road.  Baylor perhaps isn’t a top ten team, but they’re certainly good enough to beat top ten teams at home, so that was a very good win for the Sooners.

-Arizona suffered another close road loss when they fell at Cal 74-73.  It’s not a bad list by any means for the Wildcats, but they do need to get a few wins like that if they want to end up as a protected seed.

-Butler fell at Creighton, and is now a rather disturbing 2-5 in Big East play.  Again, it’s rare to see teams go sub 500 in conference and make the field, and if a team is more than two games below 500 it almost never happens.  Three of their next four games are winnable, and they really do need to win them all.

-Pittsburgh got one of their better wins of the year yesterday when they won on the road at Florida State.  They needed quality wins, and road wins, and they managed to help both of those needs yesterday.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TULANE AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati is currently outside our bubble, and losing at home to a weak Tulane team would knock them even further back.

-SMU AT TEMPLE (American).  SMU is still unbeaten, and Temple has been both hot and cold this year, so it could potentially be a good game.

-WILLIAM & MARY AT HOFSTRA (Colonial).  These are two of the better teams in the league, and although both are long shots for at-large bids, this is a chance for one or both of them to pick up what should be one of their more notable wins of the year.

-PURDUE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Both these teams have great profiles, especially Iowa, and are looking like protected seeds.  Iowa could end up as high as the #1 line.  They haven’t lost a Big Ten game yet.

-VALPARAISO AT NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon League).  Valpo fell at Wright State earlier in the week and can’t afford another slip up.  NKU has struggled this year, but they’ve been playing much better lately.

-VILLANOVA AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Both could end up being protected seeds, and Nova’s profile is so good they could end up as high as a #1 seed.  Providence has been a little up and down lately, but they’ve still been very good overall.  The game is at the Wells Fargo Center, which will still heavily favor Nova, but it isn’t quite as tough as beating them at the Pavilion.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  UNC keeps getting better and better, and I’m actually kind of expecting them to end up as a #1 seed.  But, they’ll need to win pretty much every game like this one in order to do it.  VA Tech isn’t the best team out there, but they’re also not the easiest team to beat at home.

-USC AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  USC is having a fantastic year, and they could end up as a protected seed, which seemed unheard of at the beginning of the year.  This would be a nice road win for them if they’re able to pull it off.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  I love how VCU has been playing as of late, and I expect they’ll pick up another win and remain unbeaten in A10 play.  Their profile still needs some work, but based on how they’ve been playing I think they’ll be feeling pretty safe on Selection Sunday.

-MARQUETTE AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  Marquette is on the outside looking in, and can’t afford losses in games like this if they want that to change. Due to the Blizzard of 2016, this game has been moved from Madison Square Garden to St. John’s on-campus digs at Carnesecca Arena.

-DAYTON AT FORDHAM (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton’s profile is very good, and they should be very safely in if they keep it up.  Fordham isn’t a tournament team, but they are very much improved and only have one home loss so far, so this would be a nicer win for Dayton than what most may realize.

-EVANSVILLE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley).  It’s the same story for Evansville.  They have a bloated record, but haven’t faced too many real challenges, so their margin for error is razor thin.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten, Big Five).  Saint Joe’s is an amazing 5-0 in true road games, and they’re on the right side of our bubble.  La Salle isn’t that strong this year, but this is a Big Five rivalry game.  Joe’s doesn’t want to lose to a rival, nor do they want a bad loss like this on their profile.

-SYRACUSE AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Syracuse has been way up at times, and way down at others.  That being said, they’re hovering around our bubble and could really use a big road win like this to help them end up inside of it.  Virginia has struggled in true road games, but they’re perfect at home this year, and I still think they’ll end up as a protected seed if they can hold serve at home and pick up a few road wins.

-UTAH AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Washington is right on our bubble, and Utah is in but needs to win some more road wins if they want to contend for a protected seed.  Both teams are good, but there is certainly room for both to move up, and this game would certainly help.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | 1 Comment

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, January 24: Illinois-Chicago at Wright State

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Illinois-Chicago at Wright State, 2:00 PM Eastern, espn3

The UTR Game of the Day today comes from the current co-leaders, surprisingly enough, in the Horizon league.  Following a somewhat shocking 73-62 home win on Friday over Valparaiso, Wright State is now tied with the Crusaders at the top of the conference standings, both teams sitting at 6-1.  The Raiders are 12-8 overall, but have now won 9 of their last 10 games.  They are led by JT Yoho, who scored 18 in the Valpo win, and Joe Thomasson, who had 21 points and 8 rebounds.  Today, Wright State hosts the Flames of Illinois-Chicago.  UIC enters play today at 2-16 overall and 0-7 in Horizon League play.  The only two wins for the Flames so far this season have been over non-D1 competition, which places them squarely in the discussion for the annual HOOPS HD Centenary Award as the worst team in Division I.  Dikembe Dixson is the top player for the Flames, and is coming off a 24 point, 10 rebound effort in an overtime loss at Northern Kentucky Friday night.  A win by UIC would be a major upset today, while a win by Wright State will further enforce their position as a serious contender in the Horizon League this season.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments