Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, January 25: Lamar at Stephen F Austin

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Lamar at Stephen F Austin, 8:00 PM Eastern, espn3

The UTR Game of the Day returns to the Southland Conference tonight as the battle for first place continues to intensify.  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Houston Baptist and Stephen F Austin all enter play today undefeated in league play.  The SFA Lumberjacks currently sit at 13-5 overall with the conference’s to KenPom rating at 100.  Although a huge test looms this weekend in Corpus Christi, tonight Thomas Walkup and company will be hosting the Lamar Cardinals.  Lamar enters play at 10-9 overall but only 2-5 in conference play.  The Cardinals are led by Nick Garth who has scored in double-digits in 6 out of 7 SLC games so far.  The Cardinals will be in for a huge challenge tonight in Nacogdoches, Texas, but if they can score the upset victory, it could have implications for the rest of the season as at least three teams battle for the stop two spots in the league and the byes into the conference tournament semifinals.

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Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Version 4.0)

OTHER VERY IMPORTANT LINKS

-For a rundown of all of today’s college hoops action, as well as a look back at the News and Notes from yesterday – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between UIC and Wright State – CLICK HERE

 

Welcome back to another year of NCAA tourney predictions. Last year HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, including 62 right on the money or within 1 spot of their actual seed. He will spend the next 7 weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, with new updates each week. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today, and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To compare how we stack up with other websites, check out: www.bracketmatrix.com.

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SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Oklahoma (Big 12)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: North Carolina (ACC)
1: Kansas (Big 12)

2: Xavier (Big East)
2: Iowa (Big 10)
2: Texas A&M (SEC)
2: Michigan State (Big 10)

3: Maryland (Big 10)
3: Virginia (ACC)
3: West Virginia (Big 12)
3: Iowa State (Big 12)

4: Miami Florida (ACC)
4: Oregon (Pac-12)
4: USC (Pac-12)
4: Arizona (Pac-12)

5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Purdue (Big 10)
5: Louisville (ACC)
5: Dayton (A-10)

6: Baylor (Big 12)
6: Providence (Big East)
6: Duke (ACC)
6: South Carolina (SEC)

7: Pitt (ACC)
7: Indiana (Big 10)
7: Utah (Pac-12)
7: Texas (Big 12)

8: Butler (Big East)
8: Michigan (Big 10)
8: Notre Dame (ACC)
8: Colorado (Pac-12)

9: Florida (SEC)
9: Wichita State (MVC)
9: St. Mary’s (WCC)
9: Texas Tech (Big 12)

10: Gonzaga (WCC)
10: California (Pac-12)
10: George Washington (A-10)
10: St. Joseph’s (A-10)

11: Valparaiso (Horizon)
11: Seton Hall (Big East)
11: Connecticut (AAC)
11: UCLA (Pac-12)
11: Washington (Pac-12)
11: Florida State (ACC)

12: Monmouth (MAAC)
12: San Diego State (MWC)
12: Arkansas Little-Rock (Sun Belt)
12: VCU (A-10)

13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: Hawaii (Big West)
13: William & Mary (CAA)
13: UAB (CUSA)

14: IPFW (Summit)
14: Stony Brook (America East)
14: Princeton (Ivy)
14: Northern Illinois (MAC)

15: Belmont (OVC)
15: Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (Southland)
15: North Florida (Atlantic Sun)
15: Weber State (Big Sky)

16: UNC Asheville (Big South)
16: Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
16: Navy (Patriot)
16: Wagner (NEC)
16: Hampton (MEAC)
16: Texas Southern (SWAC)

CONFERENCE: # OF TEAMS
AAC: 1
America East: 1
ACC: 8
Atlantic Sun: 1
A-10: 4
Big East: 5
Big Sky: 1
Big South: 1
Big 10: 6
Big 12: 7
Big West: 1
CAA: 1
CUSA: 1
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
MAAC: 1
MAC: 1
MEAC: 1
MVC: 1
MWC: 1
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pac-12: 8
Patriot: 1
SEC: 4
SoCon: 1
Southland: 1
SWAC: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 1
WCC: 2
WAC: 1

 

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COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-We’ve never done this with Jon Teitel’s brackets, but I do feel compelled to comment.  For starters, I understand (and would like to reiterate) that Jon is attempting to GUESS the ACTUAL COMMITTEE, and he’s damn good at it.  He’s better at it than the major media guys that do it.  The rest of us here put together brackets based on our own personal analysis and thoughts.  With that being said….

If today were Selection Sunday, and the actual committee put Texas Tech on the #9 line, then I think we’d need to completely restructure this whole damn thing!!  I know Texas Tech has some supporters among our staff, but they have done absolutely NOTHING that any NIT team couldn’t also do.  They have just one true road win, and that was at TCU.  They have two additional neutral floor wins against Minnesota and Mississippi State, but those two teams are a combined 3-14 away from home.  Their best win is perhaps a home win against Little Rock.  It was at Texas Tech, but at least Little Rock has a winning record away from home.  Of their eight other wins, all were at home, none were against teams that are inside the bubble, and only South Dakota State has a winning record on the road.  You shouldn’t get credit for beating teams at home that lose more than half their road games, and that’s all Texas Tech has done!!

Now again, this is not Jon’s personal pick, and the committee did take an equally abysmal UCLA team from last year.  I know UCLA made the Sweet Sixteen, but to me that does not justify the selection.  It should be based on merit and not potential future tournament success.  If today were Selection Sunday, and the committee not only selected Texas Tech, but placed them on the #9 line, I think a little part of me inside would die.  It’s basically saying that if you’re in a strong conference then all you need to do is win a bunch of home games against teams that are weak on the road.

I’m not big on Saint Mary’s either for pretty much the same reasons, but at least they have one notable win against Gonzaga (albeit at home).  They also have a few other road wins against teams that aren’t tournament teams, but that have been strong at home.  If this were debate class, and I were given the assignment of arguing for Saint Mary’s, I would at least have something to argue.  It would be weak, but at least there is SOMETHING there.  With Texas Tech, there is nothing there.

For the most part I like the rest of the field, and it gives me confidence that the committee will make some good picks and seed them accordingly.  I think Monmouth is better than their seed, but with three bad losses I can see why the committee would knock them all the way down to the #12 line.  I also like Valpo more than a #11 seed, but I can see why Jon would think the committee would have them there.

 

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 24th

NEWS AND NOTES

For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

For Jon Teitel’s latest seed list, where he is guessing what the real selection committee would do if the season ended today – CLICK HERE (Bracket Coming Soon)

-One of the craziest and most important game from yesterday is one that almost no one saw.  Little Rock went into Arlington and jumped all over them.  They actually built a 42-14 lead in the first half.  UT Arlington mounted a furious comeback late in the second half, and a 13-0 run helped cut an 18 point lead all the way down to 3.  Little Rock did hold on to win, which gives them a much needed quality road win, which will help them on Selection Sunday if they end up needing the automatic bid.

-Oklahoma looked like the #1 team when they opened up a huge second half lead against a very good Baylor team on the road.  Baylor perhaps isn’t a top ten team, but they’re certainly good enough to beat top ten teams at home, so that was a very good win for the Sooners.

-Arizona suffered another close road loss when they fell at Cal 74-73.  It’s not a bad list by any means for the Wildcats, but they do need to get a few wins like that if they want to end up as a protected seed.

-Butler fell at Creighton, and is now a rather disturbing 2-5 in Big East play.  Again, it’s rare to see teams go sub 500 in conference and make the field, and if a team is more than two games below 500 it almost never happens.  Three of their next four games are winnable, and they really do need to win them all.

-Pittsburgh got one of their better wins of the year yesterday when they won on the road at Florida State.  They needed quality wins, and road wins, and they managed to help both of those needs yesterday.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TULANE AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati is currently outside our bubble, and losing at home to a weak Tulane team would knock them even further back.

-SMU AT TEMPLE (American).  SMU is still unbeaten, and Temple has been both hot and cold this year, so it could potentially be a good game.

-WILLIAM & MARY AT HOFSTRA (Colonial).  These are two of the better teams in the league, and although both are long shots for at-large bids, this is a chance for one or both of them to pick up what should be one of their more notable wins of the year.

-PURDUE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Both these teams have great profiles, especially Iowa, and are looking like protected seeds.  Iowa could end up as high as the #1 line.  They haven’t lost a Big Ten game yet.

-VALPARAISO AT NORTHERN KENTUCKY (Horizon League).  Valpo fell at Wright State earlier in the week and can’t afford another slip up.  NKU has struggled this year, but they’ve been playing much better lately.

-VILLANOVA AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Both could end up being protected seeds, and Nova’s profile is so good they could end up as high as a #1 seed.  Providence has been a little up and down lately, but they’ve still been very good overall.  The game is at the Wells Fargo Center, which will still heavily favor Nova, but it isn’t quite as tough as beating them at the Pavilion.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  UNC keeps getting better and better, and I’m actually kind of expecting them to end up as a #1 seed.  But, they’ll need to win pretty much every game like this one in order to do it.  VA Tech isn’t the best team out there, but they’re also not the easiest team to beat at home.

-USC AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  USC is having a fantastic year, and they could end up as a protected seed, which seemed unheard of at the beginning of the year.  This would be a nice road win for them if they’re able to pull it off.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  I love how VCU has been playing as of late, and I expect they’ll pick up another win and remain unbeaten in A10 play.  Their profile still needs some work, but based on how they’ve been playing I think they’ll be feeling pretty safe on Selection Sunday.

-MARQUETTE AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  Marquette is on the outside looking in, and can’t afford losses in games like this if they want that to change. Due to the Blizzard of 2016, this game has been moved from Madison Square Garden to St. John’s on-campus digs at Carnesecca Arena.

-DAYTON AT FORDHAM (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton’s profile is very good, and they should be very safely in if they keep it up.  Fordham isn’t a tournament team, but they are very much improved and only have one home loss so far, so this would be a nicer win for Dayton than what most may realize.

-EVANSVILLE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley).  It’s the same story for Evansville.  They have a bloated record, but haven’t faced too many real challenges, so their margin for error is razor thin.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten, Big Five).  Saint Joe’s is an amazing 5-0 in true road games, and they’re on the right side of our bubble.  La Salle isn’t that strong this year, but this is a Big Five rivalry game.  Joe’s doesn’t want to lose to a rival, nor do they want a bad loss like this on their profile.

-SYRACUSE AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Syracuse has been way up at times, and way down at others.  That being said, they’re hovering around our bubble and could really use a big road win like this to help them end up inside of it.  Virginia has struggled in true road games, but they’re perfect at home this year, and I still think they’ll end up as a protected seed if they can hold serve at home and pick up a few road wins.

-UTAH AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Washington is right on our bubble, and Utah is in but needs to win some more road wins if they want to contend for a protected seed.  Both teams are good, but there is certainly room for both to move up, and this game would certainly help.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, January 24: Illinois-Chicago at Wright State

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Illinois-Chicago at Wright State, 2:00 PM Eastern, espn3

The UTR Game of the Day today comes from the current co-leaders, surprisingly enough, in the Horizon league.  Following a somewhat shocking 73-62 home win on Friday over Valparaiso, Wright State is now tied with the Crusaders at the top of the conference standings, both teams sitting at 6-1.  The Raiders are 12-8 overall, but have now won 9 of their last 10 games.  They are led by JT Yoho, who scored 18 in the Valpo win, and Joe Thomasson, who had 21 points and 8 rebounds.  Today, Wright State hosts the Flames of Illinois-Chicago.  UIC enters play today at 2-16 overall and 0-7 in Horizon League play.  The only two wins for the Flames so far this season have been over non-D1 competition, which places them squarely in the discussion for the annual HOOPS HD Centenary Award as the worst team in Division I.  Dikembe Dixson is the top player for the Flames, and is coming off a 24 point, 10 rebound effort in an overtime loss at Northern Kentucky Friday night.  A win by UIC would be a major upset today, while a win by Wright State will further enforce their position as a serious contender in the Horizon League this season.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Jan 23rd

NEWS AND NOTES

The following games of note have been postponed due to severe winter weather:

-Providence @ Villanova (now Sunday 1/24 at 1 PM)
-SMU @ Temple (now Sunday 1/24 at 12 PM)
-Davidson @ Richmond (now Monday 1/25 at 7 PM)
-Chattanooga @ VMI (TBD)
-William & Mary @ Hofstra (TBD)
-Saint Joseph’s @ La Salle (now Sunday 1/24 at 5 PM)
-St. Bonaventure @ VCU (now Sunday 1/24 at 3 PM)
-Tennessee St @ Belmont (now Sunday 1/24 at 5 PM)

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between LITTLE ROCK VS TEXAS ARLINGTON, which is a big one with potential NCAA Tournament implications – CLICK HERE

-It was a rough week from what appear to be top forty and therefore NCAA Tournament caliber teams from what are normally one bid leagues.  Valparaiso lost on the road to a Wright State team that is suddenly playing very well last night, but nevertheless it’s still the kind of game that you would expect Valpo to win.  In a result that was perhaps even more damaging, Monmouth lost their third game of the season to a sub 200 RPI team when they fell at Manhattan.  They trailed most of the game, but actually came back and took a lead in the final minutes, but could not hold on.

-Gonzaga also fell at Saint Mary’s.  That’s not a bad loss in and of itself, but the problem for the Zags is that they don’t have enough good wins, which makes missing a rare opportunity at a good win feel like a bad loss.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-CONNECTICUT AT GEORGETOWN.  This is an out of conference game that both teams appear to seriously need.  UConn is hovering around the bubble right now and has limited opportunities at notable wins moving forward, so they could really use a a victory in a game like this.  Georgetown is coming off a huge win at Xavier and still has a lot of work to do, but a win in this game would be a nice addition to their profile.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  South Carolina is an amazing 17-1 on the year.  Tennessee isn’t a tournament team, but they do have just one home loss, so if South Carolina were to win it they’d get more credit than what most may realize.

-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma is still the #1 team in the country, and I think they have the best overall profile despite the loss earlier this week.  Baylor is unbeaten at home, and has been playing very well lately, so this will be yet another very tough test for the Sooners.  It’s also a chance for Baylor to continue to build up momentum.  The way they’ve been playing it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up as a protected seed.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  Notre Dame looks to be somewhere in the 7-10 seed range right now, and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up at home.

-NORTHWESTERN AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Indiana has racked up several wins in a row, but they haven’t really been tested yet, and likely won’t be today either.  Still, at least they’re holding serve and winning the games they’re supposed to.

-WAKE FOREST AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Wake has hit the skids, and unless they come out of it they’re not going to wind up anywhere near the bubble.  Miami, on the other hand, has played like a protected seed all year.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  I feel Texas Tech is a team that’s just outside the bubble, but they are still a very tough team to beat at home, so it would be another big win for the Mountaineers if they can pull it off.  They’re coming off a rather surprising home loss to Texas so this is a chance for them to rebound.

-LSU AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Both teams have a lot of work to do, so there needs to be a huge sense of urgency for both of them coming into this one.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  Texas picked up one of the most impressive road wins of the year earlier this week when they knocked off West Virginia.  They’ve got another very tough test today against a Kansas team that’s looking to rebound from a rather decisive loss at Oklahoma State from earlier this week.

-MICHIGAN AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten).  Nebraska has gotten hot lately with four straight wins, including a big one at Michigan State early in the week, so they come in to this one with a ton of momentum.  Michigan is solidly inside the bubble, but still has a lot of room for improvement.  Having said that, this likely won’t be an easy game for them to win.

-DUKE AT NC STATE (ACC).  It’s rare that we say this, but Duke is in a tailspin, and although NC State isn’t the strongest opponent, as much as Duke has struggled it could be a tough road win for them to pick up.

-SETON HALL AT XAVIER (Big East).  Both teams appear to be in good shape with Seton Hall inside the bubble and Xavier still in the protected seed range.  Both are also coming off losses earlier in the week where Seton Hall almost pulled off the upset against Villanova, and Xavier surprisingly fell at home to Georgetown.  It’s two tournament caliber teams looking for another notable win.

-NAVY AT ARMY (Patriot League).  The game is at Madison Square Garden.  Neither team is inside the bubble, but we will go ahead and highlight it because it is a unique event, and because Navy currently sits atop the PL standings.

-BRADLEY AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita State has been red hot since getting back to full strength, and needs to continue to roll through conference play.

-MISSOURI AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  TAMU has looked like the best team in the SEC, and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up the win at home against Mizzou today.

-VANDERBILT AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Vandy has been somewhat disappointing this year, and with just one road win on the year they’re probably overmatched today against a Kentucky team that hasn’t been as strong as we expected, but is still unbeaten at home.

-IOWA STATE AT TCU (Big Twelve).  It’s never easy to win on the road in this league, so Iowa State needs to take advantage of what is perhaps their most winnable remaining road game.

-PITTSBURGH AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  We have both teams inside the bubble, but we also feel that both have a ton of room for improvement.  Pitt’s paper is rather weak, and a road win in a game like this would really help them.  Florida State has been somewhat inconsistent and could also use another notable win.

-LOUISVILLE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC).  Louisville has just one true road win, and because their OOC schedule was so weak their paper is still rather weak as well, so they could REALLY use this one.  Georgia Tech isn’t the best team out there, but they do have just two home losses.

-GONZAGA AT PACIFIC (West Coast).  Gonzaga fell at Saint Mary’s earlier this week, and still hasn’t beaten BYU or SMC in conference play.  They’re running out of strikes and although they appear to be undermatched in this one, they can’t afford to lose it.

-UCLA AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  The Pac Twelve has several teams that are currently on our bubble, and UCLA is one of them.  A road win against an Oregon team that’s played really well at home this year would really help their cause.

-UTAH STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  San Diego State is suddenly looking like the strongest team in the Mountain West, and although they still have a ton of work to do, they should get a good look from the selection committee if they win out.

-MARYLAND AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Both teams are high in the rankings, but their current situations are notable.  Maryland doesn’t have a win on their profile that’s anywhere close to as strong as this one would be, and Michigan State is in a bit of a tailspin that they need to come out of.  So, even though both teams are ranked and appear to be safe, it’s still a big game for both teams because both actually kind of need a big win.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Both are currently on the outside looking in and need to get hot in order to get back into the picture.  That being said, both have at moments shown that they’re capable of playing well.

-JAMES MADISON AT ELON (Colonial).  James Madison has an outside shot at an at-large, but they basically need to blow through the conference to do it.  Having said that, JMU is a perfect 6-0 in true road games, which does stand out.

-BUTLER AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Creighton has been playing well lately, especially at home, but they still have a very long way to go before they’re even in the tournament picture.  Butler is just 2-4 in Big East play, but the early part of their schedule was brutal.  Having said that, this is a big game because they don’t want to fall any further behind.

-AUBURN AT FLORIDA (SEC).  Auburn has picked up two big wins in a row, but both were at home.  Florida can land inside the bubble, but they need to continue to win the games against non tournament teams that they’re supposed to win.

-MARQUETTE AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  Marquette isn’t entirely out of the picture, but they’ve got a very long way to go and can’t afford to drop this one even though they’re the road team.

-NORTH TEXAS AT UAB (Conference USA).  UAB has won thirteen in a row, but none came against really strong competition.  They’ll need to win out to get any sort of a look from the selection committee because they just don’t have the chance to pick up the type of win that would impress the committee.

-GRAND CANYON AT UMKC (WAC).  The Team of the People are looking to continue their domination tour!!  This is one of their toughest conference games as UMKC is a very good 7-2 at home.  The Lopes are clearly the best team in the WAC, and they deserve the waiver!!  #LopesWaiver

-LITTLE ROCK AT UT ARLINGTON (Sun Belt).  Both these teams are riding the bubble, but both are also coming off damaging conference losses and need to offset that with a really big win.  This is one of the biggest and most important remaining regular season games for both these teams, so it should be fun.

-ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve).  Arizona could use a few more road wins if they want to safely end up as a protected seed.  Cal is one of several Pac Twelve teams that’s riding our bubble, so this is a very big game for them as well.

-COLORADO AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve).  Like a lot of teams, Colorado has some good things on their profile but still has some work to do if they want to feel safe.  Even though this is a road game, it’s the kind of game that they need to win.

-PORTLAND AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  SMC got a big win earlier this week at home against Gonzaga to improve to 16-2, but I still think their margin for error is somewhat small due to such a weak OOC schedule

-ARIZONA STATE AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve).  Both teams are right on our bubble, and both could really use a win in this game.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Saturday, January 23: Arkansas-Little Rock at Texas-Arlington

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Arkansas-Little Rock at Texas-Arlington, 8:15 PM Eastern

There can be little doubt as to the choice for today’s UTR Game of the Day, as the two teams that have led the way so far in the Sun Belt Conference, and are both legitimately in at-large bid discussions so far this season, meet for the first of two times this year.  Tonight, they play in Arlington, with the return matchup scheduled for February 25 in Little Rock.  UALR enters play today with an overall record of 16-2, 6-1 in conference play.  The Trojans have won games at Tulsa and at San Diego State, while only falling twice, at Texas Tech and at Arkansas State.  They struggled Thursday night at Texas State but managed to avoid what could have been a profile-crippling loss in overtime.  Texas-Arlington, on the other hand, enters play at 14-3 overall and 5-1 in conference.  They lost at Texas, in overtime, but have two bad losses, at Louisiana Tech and at Arkansas State.  The margin for error is razor thin for both of  these programs, and should either team sweep the season series, that school will have the clear leg up for at-large consideration (while the loser would be placed in a position of most likely having to capture the automatic bid).

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