Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, January 18: Arkansas-Little Rock at Arkansas State

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Arkansas-Little Rock at Arkansas State, 8:30 PM Eastern, espn3

Most bracket projections, including almost all of ours here at HoopsHD, have had two Sun Belt teams in them since early December.  Texas-Arlington made headlines with wins at Ohio State and Memphis, and only 2 overall losses heading into Sun Belt play.  UALR won games at San Diego State, Tulsa and DePaul, while only falling once.  Arlington had their first conference stumble over the weekend, losing a game at South Alabama that put the Mavericks squarely on the bubble for any postseason tournament discussions.  UALR is still continuing to win, though tonight they will certainly be challenged in Jonesboro by the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

UALR currently sits at 15-1 overall, 5-0 in Sun Belt play.  The Trojans have a decent RPI (66) and KenPom rating (42).  Those numbers would both be stronger if they were not also sitting there with the 301 Strength of Schedule in the nation.  That being said, their win over San Diego State may be growing in value as the Aztecs have begun to turn their season around.  We are still predicting Little Rock to land inside the bubble, but they need to avoid any bad losses (which may mean a loss to any team not named Texas-Arlington).  The Trojans have a balanced scoring attack, featuring Josh Hagins, Marcus Johnson, Roger Woods, Lis Soshi, Jalen Jackson, and a fairly deep bench.  Head coach Chris Beard’s team is made up almost entirely of juniors and seniors, giving them the veteran leadership and experience they need to keep winning games and advance to the NCAA Tournament.

Tonight, Little Rock will be heading to in-state rival Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves are out to a solid 4-1 start in league play, but only 8-8 overall with an RPI of 255.  Although Arkansas State only won two games against D1 opponents during the non-conference part of their schedule, the slate did get wiped clean when they entered conference play.  Donte Thomas is worth keeping an eye on for this team.  He has scored in double figured in his last eight games and most notably picked up a triple-double in a win over South Alabama, scoring 14 points while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 11 assists.  If he and his teammates play like that again, UALR could be in for a tough battle tonight.

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Bracketology 2016: March Madness Predictions (Version 3.0)

Welcome back to another year of NCAA tourney predictions. Last year HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 66 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, including 62 right on the money or within 1 spot of their actual seed. He will spend the next 8 weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, with new updates each week. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today, and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To compare how we stack up with other websites, check out: www.bracketmatrix.com.

68 logo

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Kansas (Big 12)
1: Oklahoma (Big 12)
1: Michigan State (Big 10)
1: Villanova (Big East)

2: Xavier (Big East)
2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: Virginia (ACC)
2: West Virginia (Big 12)

3: Maryland (Big 10)
3: Miami Florida (ACC)
3: Duke (ACC)
3: Iowa (Big 10)

4: Kentucky (SEC)
4: Texas A&M (SEC)
4: Providence (Big East)
4: Arizona (Pac-12)

5: Iowa State (Big 12)
5: Purdue (Big 10)
5: Oregon (Pac-12)
5: Louisville (ACC)

6: Pitt (ACC)
6: USC (Pac-12)
6: Dayton (A-10)
6: South Carolina (SEC)

7: Butler (Big East)
7: Utah (Pac-12)
7: Baylor (Big 12)
7: Texas Tech (Big 12)

8: Michigan (Big 10)
8: Gonzaga (WCC)
8: Indiana (Big 10)
8: Florida (SEC)

9: Oregon State (Pac-12)
9: California (Pac-12)
9: George Washington (A-10)
9: Texas (Big 12)

10: Connecticut (AAC)
10: Colorado (Pac-12)
10: St. Mary’s (WCC)
10: Wichita State (MVC)

11: UCLA (Pac-12)
11: St. Joseph’s (A-10)
11: Notre Dame (ACC)
11: Seton Hall (Big East)
11: Clemson (ACC)
11: Valparaiso (Horizon)

12: Monmouth (MAAC)
12: Boise State (MWC)
12: Arkansas Little-Rock (Sun Belt)
12: Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt)

13: William & Mary (CAA)
13: Akron (MAC)
13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: South Dakota State (Summit)

14: Hawaii (Big West)
14: UAB (CUSA)
14: Stony Brook (America East)
14: Princeton (Ivy)

15: Belmont (OVC)
15: Texas A&M Corpus-Christi (Southland)
15: North Florida (Atlantic Sun)
15: High Point (Big South)

16: Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
16: Montana (Big Sky)
16: Bucknell (Patriot)
16: Hampton (MEAC)
16: Wagner (NEC)
16: Texas Southern (SWAC)

CONFERENCE: # OF TEAMS
AAC: 1
America East: 1
ACC: 8
Atlantic Sun: 1
A-10: 3
Big East: 5
Big Sky: 1
Big South: 1
Big 10: 6
Big 12: 7
Big West: 1
CAA: 1
CUSA: 1
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
MAAC: 1
MAC: 1
MEAC: 1
MVC: 1
MWC: 1
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pac-12: 8
Patriot: 1
SEC: 4
SoCon: 1
Southland: 1
SWAC: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 2
WCC: 2
WAC: 1

 

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 17th

SPOTLIGHT GAME

-OREGON AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve) (***Hoops HD Spotlight Game***).  If you’ve been following the Hoops HD podcasts and tweets over the last few weeks, then you know that Chad and I have drastically different views on these two teams.  Oregon has won a bunch of home games against teams that really don’t win on the road and that may make the NIT, and of course Chad thinks this is the most spectacular feat in the history of sports.  Okay, the Ducks did squeak by Utah 77-59 earlier this week, but that’s clearly an anomaly.  Colorado has actually played good basketball with four wins away from home, including at Auburn who just beat Kentucky, at Stanford who just beat Cal, and even their losses are pretty solid.  For instance, they played a very good Iowa State team very tough to open the year.  Tonight, Colorado will beat Oregon.  Chad doesn’t think they will, but Chad is often wrong in matters relating to basketball.  Case in point, he thinks Oregon is good, and Colorado is not.  WHERE ARE MY BUFFS FANS??  I want all of you to tweet at Chad all game long @csherwood_1973 telling him what an idiot he is for liking Oregon and hating Colorado!!!

If Colorado wins, then I get to host the Hoops HD Report Monday night!!!!   #PuppetLove

NEWS AND NOTES

-Notre Dame picked up a season defining win yesterday when they knocked off Duke on the road.  It is a huge caliber road win that completely changes the complexion of their current profile.  And, it was seemingly totally out of the blue.  They had played well, but lost, at home to Pittsburgh just a week ago, and then needed to sweat out Georgia Tech at home.  To go from playing like a maybe-bubble-caliber team to winning at Duke was a huge surprise.

-Baylor has had one hell of a week.  I know that Texas Tech isn’t ranked, but they have been very tough on their home court and Baylor went there and won.  This followed up a hugely surprising win at Iowa State earlier this week.

-Kentucky went in to Auburn and lost.  If you looked at the rankings this was a huge surprise, and I’m not going to downplay it to the degree to where I’m going to say it wasn’t an upset, but Auburn was the home team and Kentucky had been looking less than stellar on the road.  They lost at LSU just the other week, who isn’t a tournament team.  Auburn isn’t  tournament team either.  Kentucky is a tournament team, but when you lose two road games to non-tournament teams it’s a probable indicator that they’re not a protected seed.

-Clemson won their third straight game against a ranked team with their win over Miami FL yesterday.  Prior to that three game streak against ranked teams, they had won at Syracuse.  Clemson still has some work to do and they need to pick up some road wins, but they are a team to seriously look at right now.

-Providence lost at home to an unranked conference opponent.  That’s the second time they’ve done that this year.  Perhaps they should just play road games.  On paper, they’re actually easier to beat at home.  Seton Hall is the team that knocked them off, and it was a huge win for them.

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Indiana State v Wichita State – CLICK HERE

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-CREIGHTON AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Creighton has been playing well lately, and they could end up getting the committee’s attention if they keep it up.  Keeping it up means picking up the winnable road games against teams like DePaul, who actually has a losing record at home.  Even though this is a road game, it’s still a game Creighton needs.

-CONNECTICUT AT HOUSTON (American).  Both teams need some quality wins on their profile.  UConn is in better shape than Houston, but isn’t to the point to where they can just skate through the rest of the season.  Both teams still have work to do.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Michigan State lost big at home to Iowa earlier in the week, but still has the resume of a #1 seed team.  Having said that, Wiscy doesn’t look like a tournament team this year, and #1 seeds need to win on the road against non tournament teams.

-SMU AT TULANE (American).  SMU is unbeaten, but ineligible.  Chad says I have to keep bringing them up even though they’re irrelevant.

-MICHIGAN AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Michigan has been playing better and looking like a tournament team.  A win today could boost their profile through the roof.  Iowa is unbeaten at home, and has been playing remarkably well lately.  I had them on my personal #1 line in my latest bracket, and I stand by it.  They had a close loss at Iowa State, won at Purdue, blew out Michigan State at home when the Spartans weren’t at full strength, and then blew them out by more at Michigan State when the Spartans were at full strength.  Iowa is REALLY damn good!!

-VIRGINIA AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  Virginia is trying to solidify themselves as a protected seed, and needs to win games like this to do it.  Florida State is trying to end up inside the bubble, and since they’re at home for this one, they need to win games like this to do it.

-OREGON STATE AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  Utah appears to be safely in the field now, but also has room for upward mobility.  Oregon State is much improved this year.  Whether they make the field or not, you cannot ignore the progress they’ve made.  Having said that, if they want to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid, they need at least one win like this on their profile, and possibly at least two.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, January 17: Indiana State at Wichita State

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Indiana State at Wichita State, 4:00 PM Eastern, espn3

In order to qualify as a HOOPS HD Under the Radar team, a school cannot be in any of the power or regular multi-bid conferences, cannot be in the Top 25 and cannot be one of two established brand names that may not otherwise fit that group (Gonzaga and BYU).  As a result, technically, the Wichita State Shockers would be classified as Under the Radar.  That being said, I have avoided featuring them in the Under the Radar Game of the Day all season because this is a team that entered the season clearly in the Top 25 and, if not for the injury to Fred VanVleet, would probably still be there.  The Shockers have won 9 out of 10 games since their disastrous trip to Orlando in November, and it would not be a “shocker” if they returned to the Top 25 in the next few weeks.  That may make today one of the last good chances to feature them in the UTR Game of the Day, and I have therefore finally caved in to the pressure from David Griggs and done just that.

Wichita State enters play today with an overall record of 11-5, including home non-conference wins over UNLV and Utah, and a home conference win over a very good Evansville team.  The Shockers are out to a 5-0 Missouri Valley start.  Since Fred VanVleet returned from his injury, the team’s only loss was in overtime at Seton Hall.  He has had a huge impact on the team, averaging almost 7 assists per game in MVC play.  Of course, he is not the only one scoring and dishing out assists.  Teammate Ron Baker has been in double-digits in scoring 11 times so far this year, including a 14 point, 7 assist effort last time out against Missouri State.  VanVleet and Baker form one of the top backcourts in the entire nation and are the reason why Wichita State will be a very tough team to beat the rest of this season, and a very tough out once the NCAA Tournament rolls around.

Today’s opponent for Wichita State is the Indiana State Sycamores.  The Trees enter play today with an overall record of 10-7, and a solid early MVC mark of 4-1, with the lone loss having come at Evansville.  Brenton Scott helps lead the way for the Sycamores.  He has hit 11 three-pointers over his last two games, scoring 25 points against Illinois State and 30 against Northern Iowa.  Also keep an eye on Devonte Brown, who lit up Drake for 27 points.  A win today would be the biggest of the season, by far, for Indiana State.  It would also position them as a potential third contender in the MVC along with Wichita State and Evansville.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Jan 16th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Texas Southern v Jackson State  – CLICK HERE

-Dayton and George Washington were close for most of the game before the Flyers finally pulled away in the final minutes.  Both teams appeared to be in somewhat of a tailspin so it was a nice win for the Flyers.

-Monmouth picked up another road win as they gave Iona their first home loss last night.  The game was back and fourth for about the first thirty minutes, but Monmouth could not miss and opened it up in the second half for a high scoring 110-102 win.  It’s another impressive road win on an already impressive profile.  But, what could also end up playing a role is what happened after the game.  As the teams were shaking hands a scuffle broke out with several players shoving each other, and at least one player (Iona’s Jordan Washington) throwing and landing a punch (or perhaps more of a slap, but still against the rules).  I would expect that there will be suspension over this, but cannot say for sure what players or for how long, but it could negatively impact both teams, which is not a good thing to happen to a team that’s trying to stay inside the bubble.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SOUTH FLORIDA AT MEMPHIS (American).  Memphis has a long way to go.  They pretty much need to win out just to get to the point of being in the discussion.

-CINCINNATI AT TEMPLE (American).  Temple won at Cincinnati earlier this year, so this is a big chance for the Bearcats to pick up a road win and offset that loss.  They really need to take care of business in games against non tournament caliber teams from here on out.

-SYRACUSE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Syracuse is in such a tailspin that it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to come out of it.  A win at Wake would be a huge step in the right direction, though.  Wake has kind of hit a slump of their own and could use a win to build up some momentum.

-OHIO STATE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Maryland is still high in the rankings, but even though their record is bloated they don’t have a lot of huge wins yet.  Ohio State has been playing better, but they still have a long way to go before they can feel safe.

-NC STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  This is a bitter rivalry, but this year it appears to be a very big mismatch.  UNC should easily end up as a protected seed, whereas NC State doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to the field.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT BUTLER (Big East).  This is a winnable conference home game for Butler.  Slipping up in this one would be a bad thing.

-INDIANA AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  Indiana has a bloated record, but they still don’t have much in the way of big wins.  This certainly wouldn’t qualify as a big win, but it is a rare winnable conference road game for the Hoosiers.

-MISSOURI AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC).  Missouri has yet to win on the road and it isn’t likely that South Carolina will drop this one today.

-VILLANOVA AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  Nova can pick up their fourth true road win and remain a frontrunner in the Big East.  They are a very strong team with a chance to end up on the #1 line.

-FORDHAM AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten).  We have Saint Joe’s just outside our bubble, so they still have a shot at making the field.  They can’t afford slip ups in games like this, though.

-TEXAS A&M AT GEORGIA (SEC).  TAMU has looked like one of the best teams in the SEC, if not the best.  They have a chance to contend for the title and to end up as a protected seed.  Road wins are always good for the profile, and this is a winnable road game.

-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  There aren’t many mismatches in this league, but this is one of the few.  Kansas should roll at home.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  Pitt is coming off a loss to Louisville, but shouldn’t have too much trouble rebounding today.

-NOTRE DAME AT DUKE (ACC).  Notre Dame is right on the bubble, and although Duke hasn’t been quite as good as many of us were expecting this year, they’re still unbeaten at home.  This is the kind of game that could really boost the Irish’s resume, but winning at Duke is far easier said than done.

-MIAMI FL AT CLEMSON (ACC).  Clemson is red hot all of a sudden with wins against Syracuse, Louisville, and Duke.  They still have a long way to go, but if they keep it up they’ll play their way into the tournament.  They have another tough test today despite being at home.  Miami is coming off just their second loss of the year, which was a close game at Virginia.

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Marquette has been playing great lately, and this is a chance for them to really build up some momentum.  Xavier comes in highly ranked, but given how well Marquette has been playing recently this may be one of Xavier’s toughest tests to date.

-WILLIAM & MARY AT UNC WILMINGTON (Colonial).  William & Mary picked up a nice win at Charleston earlier this week.  Their profile is good enough to where they can end up inside the bubble, but only if they run away from the rest of the Colonial.  UNC Wilmington currently has just one home loss, so like a lot of games this one won’t be easy.

-VCU AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten).  This is a big rivalry game, and it’s an important one for a VCU team that’s been playing very well these past few weeks.  They had some struggles in December, but right now VCU is looking as strong as anyone else in the conference.

-BAYLOR AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  Texas Tech has proven themselves to be home court heroes, and up until recently so had Baylor.  Both teams have a lot of room for improvement, especially Texas Tech who needs to keep holding serve at home, but also has to eventually beat someone on the road.

-KENTUCKY AT AUBURN (SEC).  Kentucky is safely inside the bubble, but they still have some work to do if they want to end up as a protected seed.  They have just one true road win, and this is a very winnable road game for them so they need to take care of business.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  West Virginia is coming off an impressive home win against Kansas, but winning on the road against what looks to be the #1 team in the country is even a much taller order.  This is probably the singular toughest challenge of the year for the Mountaineers.

-IOWA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Iowa State needs some true road wins if they want to end up on one of the top four lines.  K State has just one home loss, and the Cyclones have just one true road win, so this would help boost their resume quite a bit.

-JAMES MADISON AT HOFSTRA (Colonial).  These look to be two of the better teams in the Colonial, but anything short of running away from the league won’t be enough to even get them in the discussion.

-SETON HALL AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Seton Hall has been playing a lot better lately, but this is an extremely tough test for them.  Providence has lost two games, and although one of them was at home in a rather surprising result against Marquette, it’s not something they’re in the habit of doing.

-EAST TENNESSEE STATE AT CHATTANOOGA (SoCon).  Chattanooga needs to win out in order to feel safe.  Anything short of that and they’ll be sweating.  They may be sweating even if they do win out.

-BYU AT PORTLAND (West Coast).  BYU is coming off a big win against Gonzaga, and there may be room for them inside the bubble if they can dominate the rest of the way, but anything short of that probably won’t be enough.

-ALABAMA AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Vandy has been a big disappointment this year, whereas Alabama has been a big surprise.  They blew out South Carolina earlier this week and if they can pick up this road win they’ll add yet another win of note to their resume.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  Texas has been very strong at home, but not so much on the road.  Still, we’re projecting them just into the field right now, and it’s important that they avoid losses to sub tournament teams at home.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten).  I don’t know if the Bonnies will be there in the end, but they’ve won eight of their last nine and if they pick up yet another conference road win they’ll continue to inch closer and closer to contending for the tournament.

-UAB AT CHARLOTTE (Conference USA).  UAB is coming off their biggest win of the year with their road win at Old Dominion.  I still don’t think they’ll have enough quality wins on their profile to be in position to get an at-large, but if they win out they’ll probably at least be in the discussion.

-WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve).  We have both these teams right on our bubble, so it’s a big game for both teams since both need to improve their resumes.

-FLORIDA AT OLE MISS (SEC).  This is another match up between two bubble teams who have a lot of work to do if they want to end up on the right side of it.  Ole Miss has played well at home this season, and has a brand new arena to go along with it, so if the Gators could pull this off it would be a huge win for them.

-SAN DIEGO AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Gonzaga is coming off a home loss to a non tournament team, and seeing as how they don’t have a lot of big wins on their profile they could be in trouble if they don’t blow through the league.  They appear to be undermatched today, though.

-GREEN BAY AT VALPARAISO (Horizon League).  If Valpo wins out, which they are definitely good enough to do, they should be safely in the field.

-ARKANSAS AT LSU (SEC).  LSU has continued to improve, especially at home, but they still have quite a bit of ground to make up.  Having said that, they do finally appear to be heading in the right direction.

-PENN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  I personally am not as big on Northwestern as the rest of the people at Hoops HD, but at 15-3 they need to at least be on the radar, even if none of their wins are against anyone that’s all that good.

-HAWAII AT CAL STATE FULLERTON (Big West).  Hawaii hasn’t played many road games this year, and they’ll need to pick up wins in the remaining chances that they have if they want any shot at being in the discussion for an at-large.

-UTAH VALLEY AT GRAND CANYON (WAC).  The Team of the People is back in action!!!  They can improve to an amazing 16-2!!  I know they’re schedule has been weak, but for a transitional program what they are doing is absolutely amazing!  #LopesWaiver!!

-WASHINGTON STATE AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve).  Arizona has had a rather rough week, so a winnable home game like this is probably a very welcome site.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise is a somewhat impressive 13-4, but they don’t have much in the way of quality wins, and unfortunately their conference doesn’t provide them with many opportunities.  They need to continue to absolutely dominate this league in order to get any sort of consideration at all.  San Diego State was a team we really liked coming into the year, but they’ve been disappointing this season.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Saturday, January 16: Texas Southern at Jackson State

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Texas Southern at Jackson State, 6:30 PM, free streaming at jsutigers.com

It will be hard to top last night’s UTR Game of the Day as Monmouth picked up another huge road win at Iona in a very intense game that ended with an altercation from which suspensions are sure to be handed down — in other words, an intense rivalry game that helps make college basketball the amazing sport that it is (do you hear me Utah???).  Today, the UTR Game heads to Jackson, Mississippi for what may prove to be one of the more important regular season games in the SWAC this season, as the Jackson State Tigers host the Texas Southern Tigers.

As we have chronicled here at HOOPS HD, the SWAC had one of its best non-conference seasons in recent memory this year, picking up more true road wins against D1 teams than the league has since the early 90’s.  Jackson State helped contribute to those wins with a 16 point road victory at in-state rival Southern Miss.  The Tigers came close on a couple of other occasions as well, falling in overtime at Tennesee Tech and in double overtime at Louisiana Tech.  They are currently 8-9 overall and off to a 3-1 conference start.  The JSU Tigers are led by Paris Collins (20+ points seven times ths season), Chace Franklin (24 points last time out against Southern) and Raeford Worsham (4 double-doubles on the year).  If they can hold serve at home today, JSU will bring their overall record up to the .500 mark and move into sole possession of first place in the conference.

Standing between Jackson State and first place is Mike Davis’ Texas Southern Tigers.  Heading into conference play, just looking at Texas Southern’s 1-11 overall record would not have made one think they were going to be a contender.  However, a closer look reveals that their entire non-conference slate was played away from home (TSU’s home opener for the season was not until January 2 after an earlier non-conference home game had to be cancelled due to weather issues).  Texas Southern has represented the SWAC in the NCAA Tournament each of the last two years.  Now that they are playing SWAC competition and getting home games, we fully expected this team to begin winning games, and at 3-0 so far in league play, they have done exactly that.  Chris Thomas and Malcolm Riley are the senior leaders of this team, but keep an eye on freshman Derrick Griffin.  Griffin has only played 9 games so far this season, and has already pulled down five double-doubles (and just missed a sixth in a 20 point, 9 rebound effort against Syracuse).  A road win in Jackson today will certainly send a message to the rest of the SWAC that Mike Davis’ team’s non-conference record does not matter now that conference play has arrived.

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