News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Dec 30th

A rundown of today’s college basketball games, and a quick look back at yesterday…

NEWS AND NOTES

-Things are getting busy and more intense with conference playing starting up.

-Michigan State fell on the road at Iowa, but they weren’t at full strength and it’s hardly a bad loss.  I still think the Spartans have what it takes to land on a #1 seed.  Iowa has beaten the #1 ranked team, and had a 20 point lead on the #2 ranked team in the second half.  They’re not always playing at a top level, but when they are they’re pretty good.

-Texas Tech picked up another notable win at home when they knocked off Richmond.  They may be good, but their problem is that they haven’t even played a true road game yet.  True road wins in Big Twelve play are not going to be easy to come by, and they’ll be under more pressure to pick up a few.  It’s rare that you see teams with less than four wins away from home in the field.

-Florida State picked up what is probably their biggest and most feel good win of the season by winning at Florida.  The Noles should be able to make some noise in ACC play.

-Cincinnati lost at home to Temple.  It’s never good to lose conference games at home to sub NIT teams, which is what Temple appears to be.  Without an abundance of chances at notable wins, Cincinnati can’t afford too many strikes like that.  They’re still in good shape, but they won’t be if that becomes a habit.

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-WEST VIRGINIA AT VIRGINIA TECH.  Virginia Tech’s program appears to be improving under Buzz Williams, but they still have a long way to go.  West Virginia has just one loss and has looked strong this season, but this is their first true road game of the year, and it comes against a rival, so it may be somewhat challenging.

-INDIANA AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Indiana needs wins to strengthen what is a flimsy profile heading into conference play.  With a defense as weak as theirs it won’t shock me to see them drop road games like this throughout the year.

-PENN STATE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Penn State has a decent record, but they amassed it against bad teams.  Maryland is a very good team and their resume should improve as they go through conference play.

-HOUSTON AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American).  Houston has a good record, but it came against weak teams, which means their margin for error is razor thin.  In fact, this would be their first true road win if they pull it off.

-MICHIGAN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  Despite being 10-3, Michigan still has work to do in order to get to the level many were expecting them to be at at the start of the year.  Are they good enough to beat a very NIT-ish looking Illinois team on the road?

-NORTHWESTERN AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten).  Northwestern has just one loss, but they’ve had to sweat out some very weak opponents.  For most of the season Nebraska hasn’t even looked like an NIT team, but they’re still a lot tougher than most of Northwestern’s opponents.

-OAKLAND AT VIRGINIA.  Oakland took Michigan State to overtime this past weekend, but I’d be shocked if they’re able to do the same at Virginia today.

-MINNESOTA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State has so much ground to make up that they’ll need to roll off three or four wins just to get back into the conversation.  But, seeing how good they looked against Kentucky they could be good enough to do just that.  If they lose at home today, though, they’re in real trouble.

-CLEMSON AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Clemson has not won a true road game yet.  And, they haven’t won at North Carolina yet.  Ever.  EVER!!!  UNC is good enough to be a protected seed and should win their conference opener today.

-SETON HALL AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Neither team has really gotten the nation’s attention yet, but both come into this game at 10-2 and actually have some decent wins to go along with it.

-ARKANSAS AT DAYTON.  Dayton has just two losses on the year and should land inside the bubble so long as they hold serve in games like this one.

-BRADLEY AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley).  Northern Iowa has two huge wins, but they’ve also failed to hold serve in games against lower level competition.  To make the dance, you have to win the big ones, but you also have to avoid losing the small ones.  They need a very strong showing in conference if they want to make the field.

-INDIANA STATE AT EVANSVILLE (Missouri Valley).  Evansville can improve to 12-2 on the year with a win today.  This conference will give them a few opportunities at notable wins, but only a few, so they’ll need to finish very strong in order to end up in the conversation.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley).  Southern Illinois’s schedule has been weak, but they are 11-2 and this would be their fifth true road win of the year if they’re able to pick it up.

-LITTLE ROCK AT SOUTH ALABAMA (Sun Belt).  A first place finish in the SBC should land Little Rock inside the bubble, but they need to avoid bad losses.  That basically means they need to avoid losing to pretty much everyone other than Arlington.

-GEORGIA STATE AT UT ARLINGTON (Sun Belt) – CLICK HERE to see Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day

-SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH (Big East…I mean ACC).  Pitt has a great record against awful teams.  Syracuse has big wins, but very few of those occurred in the United States.  The best part of their resume was winning the Battle 4 Atlantis down in the Bahamas.  With Pitt playing such a weak schedule it puts a lot more pressure on them to do well in conference play.  They better end up more than just two games above 500 if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

-GEORGETOWN AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Georgetown has looked great this season when they’re not playing buy games.  They have a lot of ground to make up in conference play if they want to end up safely in the discussion.

-FRESNO STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West).  UNLV is perhaps the only team from the Mountain West that has a solid chance of landing inside the bubble, and they’ll have to blow through the conference in order to do it.

 

BUY GAMES

-Long Beach State @ Duke
-Francis Marion (nondiv1) @ South Carolina
-Coppin State @ Iowa State
-Western Michigan @ Vanderbilt
-UC Davis @ Boise State

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Wednesday, December 30: Georgia State at Texas-Arlington

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Georgia State at Texas-Arlington, 8:15 PM Eastern

Conference play is finally here.  Over the next week few days, the majority of teams will be finishing their non-conference schedules and starting the true meat of their seasons — conference play.  For the major conference teams, this is where you truly earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament and your seeding within it.  For most Under the Radar schools, it is about trying to capture a regular season title and giving yourself the best chance to win the conference tournament and an automatic bid.  However, for a few teams from the mid-major leagues, an at-large bid could still be possible.  One such conference is the Sun Belt, where Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington both put together solid non-conference resumes.  Little Rock went 10-1 including winning games at San Diego State and at Tulsa.  UTA went 9-2 with wins at Ohio State and Memphis.  If both teams can dominate in Sun Belt play and finish in the top two spots, there is a realistic chance for the Sun Belt to put multiple teams into the field this year.  However, there are a few teams looking to prevent that from happening.

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day is Arlington’s conference opener against last season’s NCAA Tournament darlings from Georgia State.  The Panthers won the Sun Belt regular season and conference tournament titles last year, and then pulled the stunning upset of Baylor in the Round of 64.  Head coach Ron Hunter’s spill that broke his foot in the final moments of the game after his son R.J.’s game winning shot was one of last year’s most memorable scenes.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, stars R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow are both gone from that team.  However, they still have Markus Crider and Kevin Ware (the later of whom won the national championship three years ago with Louisville).  The Panthers are a solid 7-2 on the season so far and should cause trouble all season for the top teams in the league.

Texas-Arlington has been led so far by Kevin Hervey.  Hervey is a 6-7 sophomore who has already recorded six double-doubles on the season.  His best game came against North Texas where he scored 20 points while pulling down 15 rebounds and dishing out 7 assists.  Also keep an eye on Drew Charles who scored 17 points against Bradley behind 5 made 3-pointers.  If Hervey, Charles and the rest of their teammates can come together for another strong performance tonight, they have a great chance to start conference play with a win.  If not, Georgia State will be sending a message that this may be more than just a two-team race in the Sun Belt.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Dec 29th

It’s another busy day in college basketball game with conference play getting underway in the Big Ten and the American.  Below is a rundown of all the action, and a look back at what happened in recent days.

 

NEWS AND NOTES

-For the latest Hoops HD Report Video Podcast, which has a focus on Out of Conference Rivalries – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, which has some special ties to how the coveted Hoops HD Centenary Award came into existence – CLICK HERE

-Within hours of releasing our latest Bracket Projections, which are really just check points rather than predictions, Monmouth fell at Army.  Monmouth’s resume is still very impressive, and I actually had them on the #4 line prior to the loss because they had won eight games away from home, which included Notre Dame, USC, Georgetown, and the only team to win at UCLA so far.  I still think they’re good, and still think they can land inside the bubble, but ending up as a protected seed is probably a little out of their reach even if they win out.  Having said that, Army is off to one of their best starts in recent memory and will likely be a serious contender for the Patriot League title.  A team who earns a protected seed should certainly be expected to win it, but I don’t think it’s so damaging to Monmouth that it knocks them out of the at-large picture entirely.  It’s really not even close to being that damaging.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-TULANE AT MEMPHIS (American).  Memphis has a better than expected record at 8-3, but they still have a lot of work to do in conference play if they want to be in the NCAA discussion come March.

-TEMPLE AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati is in good shape so long as they do things like avoid losses at home to non tournament teams.

-STEPHEN F AUSTIN AT UAB .  Both teams have been somewhat disappointing, but both still have the potential to have big years.  One of UAB’s losses came in overtime to Virginia Tech, and another was by just a point in their season opener against Auburn.  Still, anything short of winning out will likely be too little.

-RICHMOND AT TEXAS TECH.  Texas Tech has a bloated record against what is mostly cupcakes, and has yet to play a true road game.  Still, they had an impressive win against a good Little Rock team in their last game, and will get the chances at big wins in conference play.  Richmond needs this win a little more.  They have just one true road win, and won’t get nearly as many chances at notable wins once conference play begins.  Right now it feels as though both are on the bubble and could really use this win for their profiles, and for momentum.

-SMU AT TULSA (American).  For SMU, I’d say this is a chance for them to remain unbeaten and continue working toward a possible protected seed, but they’re ineligible for the NCAAs.  For Tulsa, they need to get their season turned around in a hurry if they want to be in the picture come March.

-DUQUESNE AT GEORGIA TECH.  Both teams have good records, but neither have any good wins.  We should learn at least a little more about each team after today.

-WAKE FOREST AT LSU.  Wake is having a pretty good year and this is a chance for them to pick up their third true road win.  LSU was a team we were big on coming into the season, but as of now their profile is horrible and they have a ton of catching up to do.

-FLORIDA STATE AT FLORIDA.  It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see both these teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Florida has played well, but doesn’t have any really high caliber wins yet and could use this one.  Florida State is still looking for their first true road win.  To get a win in a rivalry game against a solid team will be huge for whoever pulls it off.

-NORTHEASTERN AT NC STATE.  I still believe Northeastern has the ability to be a very dangerous team, but they’ll need to blow through the rest of their schedule in order to get noticed.  NC State is a respectable 9-3, but still has work to do as well.

-PRINCETON AT MIAMI FL.  As of now, Miami has a very solid profile and is actually on our #1 line (although I’m not entirely expecting them to stay there).  Princeton is off to a good 7-3 start and should make some noise in Ivy League play, but they’re probably swinging way over their heads today.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT UCF.  GW is looking to rebound from their embarrassing blowout loss at DePaul and pick up their second true road win.

-PURDUE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Purdue has looked very impressive with just one loss.  Conversely, Wiscy has struggled a lot more than expected this year.  Purdue is looking like a protected seed, and the Badgers have a lot of work to do just to land in the NCAA Tournament picture.

-CHATTANOOGA AT LIPSCOMB.  Chattanooga is the superior team and needs to pick up this road win while avoiding what would be a damaging loss to their profile.

-CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT WILLIAM & MARY.  We were really big on both these teams coming into the year, and both have been somewhat disappointing.  Still, W&M only has three losses, but they’ll have to blow through the rest of their schedule to get a serious look.

-SAINT LOUIS AT KANSAS STATE.  The Wildcats are having a much better year than I expected them to, at least up until now, and can improve to 10-2 with a win over SLU.

-CONNECTICUT AT TEXAS.  UConn REALLLLLLY needs this win because other than Cincinnati and SMU, they won’t have many more chances at notable wins once they enter conference play.  Adding a quality road win to their profile is something they really need right now.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Iowa is 6-0 at home and top ranked Michigan State is not at full strength.  Iowa has looked good this year and has improved as the year has gone on.  It wouldn’t shock me to see them pull this one off.

 

BUY GAMES

-Texas Southern @ Baylor
-Liberty @ Notre Dame
-UMES @ Saint Joseph’s
-Robert Morris @ Georgia
-UMKC @ Oklahoma State
-Jacksonville State @ Alabama
-Cal Poly @ Texas A&M
-UC Irvine @ Kansas – although UC Irvine is one of the better teams in the Big West
-Western Oregon (nondiv1) @ Oregon

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, December 29: Northwestern State at Centenary

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Northwestern State at Centenary, 7:00 PM

For out most recent HOOPS HD Report Video Podcast, CLICK HERE.

On February 24, 2011, the Centenary Gents defeated Western Illinois 73-60 at home in Shreveport for their first and only win of the 2010-11 season.  Two nights later, they lost at home to IUPUI by a score of 78-57.  That was the last game that the Gents played at the Division I level, as the following season they began their transition down to Division III.  Centenary finished in 9th place in the Summit League that season, failing to qualify for the conference tournament and easily claiming the title of the worst team in Division I.  In honor of their final season, the HOOPS HD crew’s Mock NCAA Tournament Committee voted Centenary onto our “Under Consideration” board for an at-large bid and left them on it for the entire selection process (but they did not get voted into our tournament field for some odd reason).  The following year, we created the “Centenary Award”, given to the worst team each season and rewarding that school with a place on our mock tournament “Under Consideration” board.  Towson, Southern Utah and Grambling (twice) have taken the award over the past four years.  Tonight, we are not only honoring the Centenary Award though.  Tonight, we are also honoring the team that created it.  Tonight, for the first time since February 2011, the Gents (7-3 this season) will play host to a Division I opponent as they welcome in the Northwestern State Demons.

Northwestern State is among the group of teams with a chance to claim the Centenary Award this year as they enter play tonight with a record of 2-7, both wins having come over non-D1 competition.  Further, the Demons lost a home game on November 16 to LSU-Alexandria.  A second non-D1 loss tonight, especially against the team that we named the award after, will place them under serious consideration.  The good news for Northwestern State is that Southland Conference play begins on Saturday, and their slate is basically wiped clean as they try to play for a spot in the SLC Tournament and seeding within it.  The Demons biggest problem this season has been their Tempo.  They have been one of the fastest moving teams in the country the past ten years, finishing in or near the Top 10 in that category all but once.  Entering pay tonight, their tempo is ranked 57th, incredibly slow for Mike McConathy’s squad.  Zeek Woodley has led the way for the Demons so far this season but will need to get more help from his teammates if they want to turn their season around.

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The Hoops HD Report: December 28th

Chad is joined by John, Jon, and David for this week’s show, which has an out of conference rivalry theme to it.  They discuss the big game from this past weekend between Louisville and Kentucky and what the result meant for both teams.  They also look at other big out of conference rivalries such as the Big Five games, Georgetown vs Maryland, Iowa State vs Iowa, and several others.  They also discuss rivalries that are dormant that they’d like to see brought back, most notably Kansas vs Missouri and Kentucky vs Indiana, and also other regional match ups that are not played, but that they’d like to see played, most notably Wichita State vs Kansas, Cincinnati vs Ohio State, and a few others.

They then take a close look at the other multi-bid leagues, particularly the American and Atlantic Ten Conferences, preview all the upcoming games as conference play gets underway in the Big East, Big Twelve, Pac Twelve, Big Ten, and ACC, and much more….

 

For the link to the most recent Bracket Projections from David Griggs, and comments and criticism from Chad and John – CLICK HERE

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

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Bracket Projections: December 28th

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, as well as a rundown of all of the rest of today’s action – CLICK HERE

 

NOTES ON THE BRACKET

-The bracket reflects all games played through December 27th.  It is a CHECKPOINT based on CURRENT MERIT, and not a forecast of what we think the bracket will look like in March.  Furthermore, I put far more emphasis on a team’s profile than I did on how good I think the team actually is.

-Projected conference champions are noted with an asterisk (*)

-Chad Sherwood and John Stalica will probably have some comments as well that will be posted below the bracket.  If they agree with me, then they are correct.  If they disagree with me, then they are wrong!!  I know how they think, and they’re going to say things that they’re wrong about

-Louisville is not in the field, and that is not an oversight.  To date, Louisville has almost beaten two really good teams on the road.  They’ve also failed to actually beat anyone that’s likely to make the NIT.  I feel that Louisville is a very good team that has a much better chance of ending up as a protected seed than they do missing the field.  But, until they actually beat someone that’s likely to make the NIT, I cannot justify putting them in.  Remember, this is a checkpoint.

-Monmouth is on the #4 line, and that is also not an oversight.  Monmouth’s profile is fantastically good.  They’ve won at UCLA (their only home loss), against USC on a neutral floor (who has just two losses), against Notre Dame on a neutral floor (who’s in the field), at Georgetown, at Rutgers, and at Cornell (who isn’t great, but it’s still their only home loss).  They’ve won six true road games, and eight games away from home.  No one else has anywhere close to that many wins away from home at this point.  I don’t think they’ll end up on the #4 line.  In fact, I think Louisville has a better team and will end up with a better seed once they start beating quality teams.  But, as of now, Monmouth is being grossly undervalued.  Any power conference team who had eight wins away from home on the season, much less in the first half of the season, will make the field with a very good seed.  So, why not Monmouth??

-Maryland’s seed may look a little poor.  I think their team is better than that, but am not sold on their paper at this point.

-I really like this Colorado team and think they’ll be much further inside the bubble than that once it’s all said and done.

-A lot of teams have scattershot profiles right now, but Northern Iowa’s is extremely scattershot.  I’m still not sure exactly what to do with them.  They have two incredible wins against teams that will likely end up on the #3 line or better, but they have some questionable losses as well.  I have them on the #8 line, but could see them being seeded much better, or much worse.

 

Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 2.37.43 PMScreen Shot 2015-12-28 at 2.12.07 PM

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Pittsburgh, California, Florida State, Louisville, Washington, Baylor, Ohio State, Wichita State, Ole Miss, Evansville, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon State, Saint Joseph’s, William & Mary, Georgia, NC State, Saint Mary’s, Davidson, Hawaii

 

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– Although I should forgive this entire bracket as Griggs has finally joined the Texas Tech bandwagon, I have to make a few comments anyhow.

– The biggest complaint I have is Northern Iowa.  yes they have two HUGE wins.  But they have given those and more back with losses 4 losses to teams that are not in this field and a 5th to a team barely in (Richmond).  I would have them on the 12 line if you are going to call them the auto-bid from the MVC or out if you were to give that to Wichita or Evansville.

– I will leave the Louisville argument to John S., but I think that Northwestern belongs in this field.  I know they don’t have any great wins, but 12-1 cannot be ignored.  If you are going to join the Texas Tech bandwagon, you have to join the Northwestern one too.

– Finally, I don’t understand Colorado.  David loves them but I think that is just because he enjoys going shopping in the state’s medicinal stores.  The team itself has beaten no one of note yet.  They will get their chances in conference play, but I really don’t see it happening.  I guess in the end, we are nitpicking between a bunch of teams that we just don’t know enough about yet because of their lousy non-conference schedules.  But I personally believe more in Northwestern and Louisville than I do Colorado and some others.

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– Without looking into Chad’s comments, I will start off by talking about the Louisville Cardinals. If they’re being punished by the puppet for not winning any notable games, why is Cincinnati getting a 5 seed? I know the puppet loves Tim Miles and Nebraska, but Cincy’s only notable wins came against George Washington in Brooklyn and VCU on the road. Right now, VCU is a sub-NIT team. The Bearcats lost two tough ones at home against Butler and Iowa State; they should have won one of those two to continue to justify a seed just outside of the protected zone.

– Miami also jumps out as a surprise on the 1-line, but outside of stubbing their toes against Northeastern, they’ve also had a very impressive start to the year with sizable wins against Utah and Butler in Puerto Rico. If we’re looking at ACC teams as a possible #1 seed, it would be easy to say that Virginia has a less egregious loss at George Washington, but their best wins (Villanova, Cal, at Ohio State) don’t match what the Canes have pulled off so far. I suspect this was part of David’s rationale for having the U instead of the Hoos or North Carolina at the top.

– I can even agree that Monmouth deserves extra credit for 6 true road wins (UCLA, Drexel, Niagara, Georgetown, Rutgers and Cornell) plus neutral-court wins over Notre Dame and USC. UCLA is the only first-ballot NCAA team out of that group; I’m not sure if USC or Notre Dame will remain NCAA Tournament-caliber teams later on in the season. But again, this is simply the calendar year-end checkpoint. One loss to Canisius won’t erase that, but if they lose to someone not named Iona or Siena in the MAAC, that’s going to be problematic.

– My only other objection would be placing Northern Iowa on the 8 line; they’ve had a tough schedule but they’ve lost too many games against sub-NCAA teams to justify such a seed. Yes, wins over UNC and Iowa State in Des Moines carry some weight, but not enough to offset losses against Colorado State, at New Mexico, at Hawai’i, and against BYU. They also had a sizable loss at Richmond, although Griggs has the Spiders in his field for now.

– It will be fun in the next couple of weeks once we start hashing out seed lines as a committee would; keep an eye out for these seed lists in podcasts next month as well as brackets in February.

 

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