See the other highlighted games below….
Under the Radar Game of the Day: Monmouth at Army, 4:00 PM Eastern, patriotleague.tv
Today is the final day, the last of the season. This will be the last time before Selection Sunday that no conference-play games are scheduled in Division I men’s basketball. Within the next week, almost every one of the 32 conferences will begin regular season conference play (though a few of the smaller ones like the Ivy League may come a little bit later than that). There are a few prime choices for today’s UTR Game of the Day (including Valparaiso with a tough road test at Belmont, an intriguing matchup between Stony Brook and NJIT and a road test for Grand Canyon at SIU Edwardsville #LopesWaiver), but we could not pass up the chance to focus in on the Monmouth Hawks, especially with the team moving closer and closer to a Top 25 ranking and graduation off of the Under the Radar list. This afternoon, the team with the “Best Bench in Basketball” plays their final non-conference game of the season, heading from West Long Branch to West Point to battle the Black Knights of Army.
Monmouth enters play tonight with an overall record of 9-3, including wins away from home over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Rutgers — a collection of wins as good as almost any team in the nation right now. As we reach the end of December, power rating numbers are getting more meaningful (at least more meaningful then they were a month ago). Monmouth’s RPI currently sits at #13 in the entire nation, and even their KenPom rating of 53 is respectable — especially with it having been done against one of the top 30 strengths of schedule. The Hawks are led by 5-8 guard Justin Robinson, but feature a ton of talented players that can carry the scoring load including Micah Seaborn, Deon Jones, Christ Brady and more. They are a fun and exciting team to watch, both on the court and on the sidelines, where the Monmouth Bench has garnered national headlines for their creative and fun celebrations. Just what new routines will come out each day makes every game worth tuning in for.
Today’s opponent for the Hawks is the Patriot League’s Army Black Knights. As we have noted before, Army is one of only five teams to have been a member of Division I since its inception in 1948 without ever playing in the NCAA Tournament. Northwestern and William & Mary both have teams this season capable of getting off of that list, while St. Francis-Brooklyn had a chance to contend in the Northeast Conference as well (things do not look as promising for The Citadel). Army could also break that streak, as they and their rivals from Navy have been the two most impressive Patriot League teams so far this season. Army enters play today with a record of 8-3 and the highest KenPom power rating number in the conference (145). Two of their losses were certainly respectable, at George Washington and at Tennessee. However, the third came last time out at home to Marist, and was just the type of head-scratcher loss that plagued this Army team last season when they entered play looking like they could win the conference and instead finished in last place. Tanner Plomb leads the way for this Army team, having scored over 25 points in two of his last three games. However, keep an eye on three-point shooter Kyle Wilson (36 points earlier this year against Fairleigh Dickinson) and double-double threat Kevin Ferguson. Wilson could be the biggest factor in this game as it was three-point shooting defense that cost Monmouth in its loss earlier this year at Canisius. If the Hawks do not come out ready to play at both ends of the court from the opening tip, they could be heading back to New Jersey with their 4th loss of the year.
OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-PENN AT VILLANOVA (Big Five). If this wasn’t a Big Five game we wouldn’t be highlighting it. This is a huge mismatch that will likely end up looking very much like a buy game. Penn is improved, but they’re still a long way from being expected to compete in a game like this.
-ELON AT DUKE. This is a buy game, and it will likely be a huge mismatch, but Elon does come in with a somewhat surprising 9-3 record.
-NEW MEXICO STATE AT WICHITA STATE. Wichita State has so much ground to make up that they basically can’t afford to lose for the rest of the season, at least not at home to sub NIT caliber teams. New Mexico State will likely win the WAC, but they’re still not at a caliber where you could expect them to make the NIT without a first place finish.
-VALPARAISO AT BELMONT. Belmont has been somewhat disappointing this year, but they’re still one of the better teams in the OVC. Valpo is looking for their fifth true road win of the year, which they need if they want to end up in a position to earn an at-large bid.
-GRAND CANYON AT SIUE. The Team of the People is looking for their second true road win, and to improve to 12-2 on the year. #LopesWaiver
-DAVIDSON AT CALIFORNIA. Both teams are good, but both have a lot of work to do, particularly Davidson who has a bloated record but nothing that comes close to resembling any sort of quality win.
-Nicholls State @ Houston (buy game)
-UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina (buy game)
-IUPUI @ Butler (buy game)
-Sacred Heart @ Hofstra (buy game)
-Prairie View A&M @ Louisiana Tech (buy game)
-CSU Bakersfield @ Arizona State (buy game)
-Coppin State @ Creighton (buy game)
-College of Idaho (nondiv1) @ Utah (buy game)
-Utah Valley @ Saint Mary’s (buy game)
-UC Santa Barbara @ Washington (buy game)
Bracket Projections: December 28th
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, as well as a rundown of all of the rest of today’s action – CLICK HERE
NOTES ON THE BRACKET
-The bracket reflects all games played through December 27th. It is a CHECKPOINT based on CURRENT MERIT, and not a forecast of what we think the bracket will look like in March. Furthermore, I put far more emphasis on a team’s profile than I did on how good I think the team actually is.
-Projected conference champions are noted with an asterisk (*)
-Chad Sherwood and John Stalica will probably have some comments as well that will be posted below the bracket. If they agree with me, then they are correct. If they disagree with me, then they are wrong!! I know how they think, and they’re going to say things that they’re wrong about
-Louisville is not in the field, and that is not an oversight. To date, Louisville has almost beaten two really good teams on the road. They’ve also failed to actually beat anyone that’s likely to make the NIT. I feel that Louisville is a very good team that has a much better chance of ending up as a protected seed than they do missing the field. But, until they actually beat someone that’s likely to make the NIT, I cannot justify putting them in. Remember, this is a checkpoint.
-Monmouth is on the #4 line, and that is also not an oversight. Monmouth’s profile is fantastically good. They’ve won at UCLA (their only home loss), against USC on a neutral floor (who has just two losses), against Notre Dame on a neutral floor (who’s in the field), at Georgetown, at Rutgers, and at Cornell (who isn’t great, but it’s still their only home loss). They’ve won six true road games, and eight games away from home. No one else has anywhere close to that many wins away from home at this point. I don’t think they’ll end up on the #4 line. In fact, I think Louisville has a better team and will end up with a better seed once they start beating quality teams. But, as of now, Monmouth is being grossly undervalued. Any power conference team who had eight wins away from home on the season, much less in the first half of the season, will make the field with a very good seed. So, why not Monmouth??
-Maryland’s seed may look a little poor. I think their team is better than that, but am not sold on their paper at this point.
-I really like this Colorado team and think they’ll be much further inside the bubble than that once it’s all said and done.
-A lot of teams have scattershot profiles right now, but Northern Iowa’s is extremely scattershot. I’m still not sure exactly what to do with them. They have two incredible wins against teams that will likely end up on the #3 line or better, but they have some questionable losses as well. I have them on the #8 line, but could see them being seeded much better, or much worse.
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Pittsburgh, California, Florida State, Louisville, Washington, Baylor, Ohio State, Wichita State, Ole Miss, Evansville, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon State, Saint Joseph’s, William & Mary, Georgia, NC State, Saint Mary’s, Davidson, Hawaii
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– Although I should forgive this entire bracket as Griggs has finally joined the Texas Tech bandwagon, I have to make a few comments anyhow.
– The biggest complaint I have is Northern Iowa. yes they have two HUGE wins. But they have given those and more back with losses 4 losses to teams that are not in this field and a 5th to a team barely in (Richmond). I would have them on the 12 line if you are going to call them the auto-bid from the MVC or out if you were to give that to Wichita or Evansville.
– I will leave the Louisville argument to John S., but I think that Northwestern belongs in this field. I know they don’t have any great wins, but 12-1 cannot be ignored. If you are going to join the Texas Tech bandwagon, you have to join the Northwestern one too.
– Finally, I don’t understand Colorado. David loves them but I think that is just because he enjoys going shopping in the state’s medicinal stores. The team itself has beaten no one of note yet. They will get their chances in conference play, but I really don’t see it happening. I guess in the end, we are nitpicking between a bunch of teams that we just don’t know enough about yet because of their lousy non-conference schedules. But I personally believe more in Northwestern and Louisville than I do Colorado and some others.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– Without looking into Chad’s comments, I will start off by talking about the Louisville Cardinals. If they’re being punished by the puppet for not winning any notable games, why is Cincinnati getting a 5 seed? I know the puppet loves Tim Miles and Nebraska, but Cincy’s only notable wins came against George Washington in Brooklyn and VCU on the road. Right now, VCU is a sub-NIT team. The Bearcats lost two tough ones at home against Butler and Iowa State; they should have won one of those two to continue to justify a seed just outside of the protected zone.
– Miami also jumps out as a surprise on the 1-line, but outside of stubbing their toes against Northeastern, they’ve also had a very impressive start to the year with sizable wins against Utah and Butler in Puerto Rico. If we’re looking at ACC teams as a possible #1 seed, it would be easy to say that Virginia has a less egregious loss at George Washington, but their best wins (Villanova, Cal, at Ohio State) don’t match what the Canes have pulled off so far. I suspect this was part of David’s rationale for having the U instead of the Hoos or North Carolina at the top.
– I can even agree that Monmouth deserves extra credit for 6 true road wins (UCLA, Drexel, Niagara, Georgetown, Rutgers and Cornell) plus neutral-court wins over Notre Dame and USC. UCLA is the only first-ballot NCAA team out of that group; I’m not sure if USC or Notre Dame will remain NCAA Tournament-caliber teams later on in the season. But again, this is simply the calendar year-end checkpoint. One loss to Canisius won’t erase that, but if they lose to someone not named Iona or Siena in the MAAC, that’s going to be problematic.
– My only other objection would be placing Northern Iowa on the 8 line; they’ve had a tough schedule but they’ve lost too many games against sub-NCAA teams to justify such a seed. Yes, wins over UNC and Iowa State in Des Moines carry some weight, but not enough to offset losses against Colorado State, at New Mexico, at Hawai’i, and against BYU. They also had a sizable loss at Richmond, although Griggs has the Spiders in his field for now.
– It will be fun in the next couple of weeks once we start hashing out seed lines as a committee would; keep an eye out for these seed lists in podcasts next month as well as brackets in February.