Bracket Projections: Monday, Nov 23rd

Posted on November 23, 2015 by David Griggs

READ THIS FIRST!!!!!!!!

First and foremost, this bracket is a CHECKPOINT based on CURRENT MERIT.  Not, a forecast of the future.  For that matter, it’s really not a bracket that reflects how good we think teams actually are currently.  Just what they’ve done on paper.  If we were forecasting instead of check pointing, teams like Kansas, North Carolina, and Iowa State would have much better seeds.  Likewise, teams like George Washington and Chattanooga wouldn’t be where they currently are.  So, if it looks crazy, that’s why.

I have two reasons for doing them this early:  1), It’s fun to look at, and 2) This is a season long evaluation, and this helps me evaluate.  Nothing more, nothing less.

 

BRACKET NOTES

-The bracket reflects all games played through Sunday, November 22nd

-No teams needed to be moved off of their natural seed lines.

-Chattanooga has wins at Illinois and at Georgia.  Neither Illinois or Georgia appear to be outstanding, but those are still two very good road wins against teams that could end up inside the bubble, and will likely win the vast majority of their home games.  That’s why Chattanooga is so high.

-Tulsa isn’t likely to end up anywhere near the the #3 line, but as of now they’ve beaten Wichita State and racked up some notable wins away from home.  Many teams below them will probably pass them, but as of now their profile is rather strong.

-George Washington is another unbeaten team who has done some stuff away from home, as well as beat Virginia at home.  They’re probably not a #4 seed come March, but this is a checkpoint and not a forecast.

-Western Illinois is unbeaten with a win at Wisconsin.  I wasn’t expecting them to be that strong by Summit League standards, much less NCAA Tournament standards, but they have my attention.

-Saint Joseph’s, who I thought would finish at or near the bottom of the Atlantic Ten, also has my attention.  They have just one loss to Florida, and beat what we think is a pretty good Old Dominion team (although they’ve been disappointing so far).

-The Seed List is posted below.  I know, it’s a mess, and it’s very interchangeable as far as who could be or should be ahead of who right now.  Basically, when it comes to what everyone has done on paper, all 351 teams are still separated by just three or four games.

Screen Shot 2015-11-23 at 10.05.00 AM

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1. KENTUCKY
2. MIAMI FL – 5-0. Beat Butler and Utah away from home
3. Duke
4. MICHIGAN STATE
5. GONZAGA
6. Virginia
7. VILLANOVA
8. Purdue
9. OKLAHOMA
10. ARIZONA
11. Oregon
12. TULSA – multiple quality wins
13. Maryland
14. GEORGE WASHINGTON – unbeaten with win against Virginia
15. Utah
16. Xavier
17. Butler
18. Indiana
19. California
20. Dayton
21. North Carolina – no big wins
22. Kansas – only win is against Northern Colorado
23. Lsu – no big wins
24. Vanderbilt – no big wins
25. Cincinnati – no big wins
26. Connecticut –no big wins
27. Baylor
28. CHATTANOOGA – 2-0. Won @ Illinois and @ Georgia
29. Providence
30. Notre Dame
31. Florida
32. Louisville
33. Saint Joseph’s – 4-1 with wins over ODU and Drexel
34. Iowa State
35. West Virginia
36. VALPARAISO – win @ Rhode Island. Close loss at Oregon
37. WESTERN ILLINOIS – 4-0. Won @ Wiscy
38. Syracuse
39. Florida State
40. Georgetown
41. Wisconsin
42. NORTHERN IOWA
43. Wichita State
44. COLORADO STATE – 3-0. Won at Northern Iowa
45. WILLIAM & MARY
46. Washington – 3-0 with a win over Texas
47. South Carolina
48. Vcu – no big wins yet, but close losses to Duke and Wiscy
49. Rhode Island
50. Usc – 3-0 with a win over New Mexico
51. Michigan
52. Richmond
53. Evansville
54. Hofstra
55. Oregon State
56. NORTH FLORIDA
57. LITTLE ROCK
58. UT Arlington
59. Saint Mary’s
60. Davidson – 2-0 vs weak teams
61. RADFORD
62. MONMOUTH
63. Pittsburgh
64. YALE
65. BELMONT
66. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
67. Ohio U
68. SACRAMENTO STATE
69. Iowa
70. Texas A&M
71. Southern Illinois
72. Fresno State
73. Long Beach State
74. Byu
75. San Francisco – win over UIC
76. Unlv
77. New Mexico
78. Wake Forest
79. Northwestern
80. Clemson
81. Georgia
82. LOUISIANA TECH – 3-0. Beat UTA
83. UC IRVINE
84. Kansas State
85. Boston College
86. Duquesne
87. Hawaii
88. STEPHEN F AUSTIN
89. Saint John’s
90. Saint Louis
91. UMass
92. BUCKNELL
93. SOUTHERN
94. NEW MEXICO STATE
95. ALBANY
96. LIU BROOKLYN – only unbeaten NEC team
97. SAVANNAH STATE

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, November 23: Weber State vs Central Michigan

Posted on November 23, 2015 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Weber State vs Central Michigan, 8:30 PM Eastern, free streaming here

Thanksgiving Week.  The week for family, turkey, football, and in-season college basketball tournaments.  There will be more than enough hoops this week to satisfy even the most die-hard fans, including the Maui Invitational, Advocare Invitational, Wooden Legacy, Battle 4 Atlantis, Cancun Challenge, Legends Classic, and CBE Hall of Fame Classic, just to name a few.  One tournament that does not get a ton of attention, other than in the Under the Radar world, is the Gulf Coast Showcase, presented by the folks at BD Global Sports (who will also be bringing us the new postseason Vegas 16 event starting this year).  The main reason why the Gulf Coast Showcase gets so little attention is that it is an event specifically designed for 8 teams that are considered “mid-majors.”  The event (played in Fort Myers, Florida) kicks off today with the four quarterfinals as follows (all times Eastern):

12:00 PM – Milwaukee vs Murray State
2:30 PM – Duquesne vs Pepperdine
6:00 PM – Drake vs Western Kentucky
8:30 PM – Weber State vs Central Michigan

Although any of the four games could be a candidate for UTR Game of the Day, especially with Murray State being among the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference, and Pepperdine,  Drake and Western Kentucky all being dark horse candidates in their conferences, it is the final game of the night that we are focusing in on.

Weber State enters today’s game at only 1-2 on the season, with their lone victory coming over one of our favorite non-D1 schools, Antelope Valley.  However, neither loss was particularly alarming (Utah State and at South Dakota State), so there is no reason to be too concerned yet that the Wildcats will repeat last season’s disappointing 13-17 overall and 8-10 Big Sky mark.  Weber State was the HOOPS HD preseason pick to win the conference, led by Joel Bolomboy down low and Jeremy Senglin in the backcourt.  Bolomboy is especially worth keeping an eye on as he has posted a double-double in all three of his team’s games so far this season.

Central Michigan was also the HOOPS HD preseason pick to win their conference, the Mid-American.  The Chippewas are 2-0 on the season having struggled to beat Jacksonville State at home then getting by non-D1 Alma by 15 points.  The biggest knock on this year’s CMU team is a very weak non-conference schedule.  Playing such a schedule requires a team to make up for it by winning pretty much every opportunity they get, and this tournament will be a nice feather in their caps if they can take home the trophy.  To do so, however, they will need to play a lot better than they did in their first two games of the year.  John Simons, Rayshawn Simmons and Braylon Rayson will all need to excel as they are three key returning players from last year’s MAC West Division champions.  One player that will not be available today is star point guard Chris Fowler.  Fowler had not played yet this season and remains listed as day-to-day with an injury.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, November 22: North Dakota at Florida Gulf Coast

Posted on November 22, 2015 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: North Dakota at Florida Gulf Coast, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For the rest of today’s news, notes and highlighted games, CLICK HERE.

104-101 in 3OT.  That was the final score of last night’s Florida Gulf Coast victory over Youngstown State, in what proved to be one of the most exciting games of the day (no slight intended towards what happened in Cedar Falls, Iowa).  The game was highlighted by huge clutch shots at the end of regulation and each of the first two OT periods, before FGCU was finally able to hold off the Penguins and claim the victory.  The bad news for the Eagles is that it was the first of three games in three days that they will be hosting in the round robin format FGCU Tournament.  Tonight they get North Dakota and tomorrow night Bowling Green.  But, for now at least, “Dunk City” is 2-1 on the season and will be looking for another strong effort the next two nights from Marc-Eddy Norelia, who scored 34 points in an amazing 52 minutes of game play last night.

Tonight’s opponent for FGCU made headlines of their own this week.  The University of North Dakota has spent the past three years without a nickname following the retirement for their old Fighting Sioux name.  The State legislature had stepped in to try to prevent the NCAA from forcing the school to change their name, and the end result was that the school had to retire it anyhow but was legally barred from adopting a new one for some time.  Even after the time period expired, UND began a rather long and slow process of choosing a new nickname.  The final two candidates were Roughriders and Fighting Hawks.  This past week the winner was announced, and North Dakota is officially the Fighting Hawks.  Yesterday, the Fighting Hawks beat Bowling Green 77-59 to improve to 2-1 on the year (though 1-0 as the Fighting Hawks).  Tonight, the team led by Quinton Hooker (25 points and 9 rebounds yesterday) will look to pick up a second straight victory against what should be a tired Florida Gulf Coast team.  If they do, only Youngstown State on Monday afternoon will stand between them and the FGCU Tournament championship.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Nov. 22

Posted on November 22, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-North Carolina went on the road to Northern Iowa…and lost.  Northern Iowa has a very strong program, but this season’s edition appeared to be in complete rebuilding mode and we didn’t expect much out of them.  The Panthers lost their season opener at home to Colorado State, which is a team that is also rebuilding.  I fully expect the Tarheels to rebound and end up in the top five by the end of the year.  It’s not the first time they’ve lost an early road game to a team you’d expect them to clobber.  I’m not sure what to expect out of Northern Iowa moving forward, though.  To say this is a good win on their profile right now would be a huge understatement.

-Congratulations to Oregon State, who is 4-0 for the first time in fifteen years.  They beat UC Santa Barbara 71-59 yesterday.  And, they’re not the only Pac Twelve team that’s been really bad in recent years that’s off to a start that’s much better than what we’re used to seeing.  USC is now 3-0 after knocking off New Mexico.

-Chattanooga now has road wins at Georgia and at Illinois.  You can’t ignore that.  Most people are probably down on Illinois for losing to North Florida and Chattanooga.  I’m not going to say that I think the Illini are a strong team, but I do think this is more of a case of North Florida and Chattanooga being good than it is Illinois being bad.  Having said that, North Florida had their doors blown off at Louisville today, so it’s hard to argue that they’re a really strong team after that.

-One of the better games of the day was Dayton vs William & Mary, and it’s a shame that the broadcast on the A-10 website was so poor, and as we’re finding out, so unavailable.  People in the Dayton market weren’t able to access it because the game was blacked out, and only available on to a limited number of viewers who had some obscure Ohio Sports Channel.  Fortunately we don’t live in Ohio, and we got to see it.  William & Mary got out to a double digit lead in the first half.  Dayton fought back and their fans were into it, and it looked like they were going to run away with it.  But, W&M regrouped and actually had a chance to win in the final minute.  It’s a win that REALLY could have helped W&M’s profile, especially considering their opportunities to get notable wins are somewhat limited, but it’s not the kind of loss that hurts them at all, and if anything I think it shows some toughness considering they were able to come back on the road after blowing a lead and give themselves a chance to win.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MIAMI FL VS BUTLER (Puerto Rico Tip Off) (***Spotlight Game***).  In a nutshell, this is a match-up between two potential protected seeds and a chance to get a high quality win on their profile.  Win or lose, I think Miami FL should be in the rankings.  They weren’t a team we were overly excited about in the preseason, but they’ve looked so good every time they’ve played that I could see them being a major player in the ACC and earning a protected seed.  Butler has looked strong as well, but this is by far their toughest test of the year so far.

-VALPARAISO AT OREGON (***Spotlight Game***).  Valpo has looked very impressive this year, and this is their biggest test of the season so far.  Their chances at high quality wins are limited, so this game is a bit pivotal.  If they win it, it will go a long way toward them not needing to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament.

-GEORGETOWN VS DUKE (2k Classic).  Both Duke and Georgetown got their first big wins of the year in the semifinals.  Georgetown beat Wisconsin and Duke sweat out VCU.  Georgetown is a solid NCAA Tournament team and Duke will likely contend for a #1 seed, so it’s a resume builder for the winner.

-VCU VS WISCONSIN (2k Classic).  Both these teams are still looking for their first big win on the year.  Even though it’s a third place game, the committee won’t view it any differently than any other neutral floor OOC game.

-FLORIDA VS PURDUE (Hall of Fame Tip Off).  Both teams are unbeaten and both beat what appear to be fairly good teams in the semifinals.  This will likely be a resume builder for whoever pulls it off, as well as a momentum builder as the season continues.

-OLD DOMINION VS SAINT JOSEPH’S (Hall of Fame Tip-Off).  Old Dominion could not hit the ocean in their game against Purdue, which led to them losing rather decisively.  Saint Joe’s came into this tournament unbeaten and they actually put up a hell of a fight against Florida despite the loss.  We thought they’d be one of the worst teams in the Atlantic Ten, but they’re proving us wrong.  Even though this game is in the loser’s bracket, the selection committee does not make that differentiation, so it’s still a chance for teams to pick up notable wins away from home.

-TEMPLE VS UTAH (Puerto Rico Tip-Off).  Utah was run out of the building by Miami FL in their last game.  Temple really hung tough against a pretty good Butler team.  Both will look to rebound with a win today.

-AKRON AT VILLANOVA.  This may turn out to be a mismatch, but both teams are coming in unbeaten and Akron is coming off a win at Arkansas.

-TULSA VS INDIANA STATE (Paradise Jam).  Tulsa had a very exciting come from behind win in their first game, and can really put together an impressive body of work for this early in the season if they can win this tournament.  They’d have three wins away from home in addition to a win over Wichita State.

-HOFSTRA VS SOUTH CAROLINA (Paradise Jam).  Hofstra had the somewhat surprising win against Florida State in their first game and can pick up another notable win away from home in this one.  South Carolina comes in unbeaten as well.

-GEORGE MASON VS VIRGINIA (Charleston Classic).  George Mason has two surprising wins (at least to me) in the tournament so far, but I think their luck runs out today as they face a Virginia team that’s been blowing through the field so far.

-OKLAHOMA STATE VS LONG BEACH STATE (Charleston Classic).  It wouldn’t surprise me if both teams faded from relevance as the season continues, but as of now both have just one loss and have the opportunity to build some early momentum with a win in this game.

MINNESOTA VS TEXAS TECH (Puerto Rico Tip-Off).  Both teams have just one loss and can build up some momentum if they can pick up some wins away from home.

-YALE AT SMU.  Yale doesn’t need to worry about landing inside the bubble because there isn’t a conference tournament for them to lose in.  And, I guess for that matter, SMU doesn’t have to worry about it either.  Having said that, Yale is unbeaten and this would be a big win on their profile, which would boost their seed if they end up finishing first in the Ivy.

-HARVARD AT BOSTON COLLEGE.  Harvard hasn’t won yet and BC hasn’t lost yet.  I’m fully expecting both of those things to change today.  It would be Harvard’s eighth straight win over BC if they pull it off.

-ARMY AT GEORGE WASHINGTON.  Both teams are unbeaten, and GW has a big win against Virginia on their profile.

-STANFORD AT SAINT MARY’S.  I’m not expecting either team to be strong in the end, but SMC hasn’t lost yet, and Stanford has just one loss.  This would be a good early season win for the Cardinal to have on their profile

 

BUY GAMES

-Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Cincinnati
-East Tennessee State @ Georgia Tech
-Omaha @ Colorado
-Tennessee Martin @ James Madison
-Southeast Louisiana @ Nebraska
-Northwestern State @ Arizona
-Gardner Webb @ Tennessee

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – November 21 2015: Lafayette at NJIT

Posted on November 21, 2015 by Chad

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Lafayette at NJIT, 4:00 PM Eastern, espn3

For the rest of today’s highlighted action and more, CLICK HERE.

Although Belmont is playing at Evansville today (1:00 PM Eastern, espn3), there are times when the best Under the Radar game has to be pushed aside in favor of an even better story, and today is one of them.  That story, of course, is the team that we here at HOOPS HD adopted last season as our first ever “Team of the People”, the NJIT Highlanders.  NJIT was the nation’s lone independent last year, but had an amazing season, winning at Michigan, defeating Yale at home, and qualifying for the CIT, where they promptly advanced all the way to the semifinals before losing a close game at Northern Arizona.  They rode that great season into an invitation to join the Atlantic Sun, where they have a chance to make their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance this year.

NJIT has started this season off with a flourish, despite falling to Kentucky in their opener (no surprise there), they went and picked up an exciting victory at South Florida and followed that up a couple nights ago by winning their home opener against Boston University.  The team is led by Damon Lynn, but has plenty of options with the likes of Tim Coleman, Ky Howard, Winfield Willis and more.  Today, the Highlanders (who suddenly have one of the wildest student sections around — even if they only started showing up late last year), welcome in another Patriot League opponent, the Lafayette Leopards.  Lafayette represented the Patriot League in the NCAA Tournament last year and has a shot to contend for the league title again this year.  They are off to a 1-1 start, losing at George Washington and defeating St. Peter’s.  They will have a tough test today, however, as we once again expect a raucous crowd at the Fleisher Center.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Nov. 21st

Posted on November 21, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-It was a very eventful afternoon in the Virgin Islands.  First, Tulsa, who was fresh off their big upset win against Wichita State, fell behind by 19 points to Ohio U.  It looked like Ohio, who was unbeaten on the year, was going make a splash on the national stage by picking up a quality win away from home, remaining unbeaten, and getting the chance to play another quality team in the next round.  But, Tulsa came roaring back for a 90-88 win.  The Golden Hurricane remain unbeaten, they’ll face Indiana State today, and if they can manage to win this tournament they’ll probably get quite a bit of attention from the Top 25 voters.

Later in the afternoon, Hofstra upset what we feel is a good Florida State team to remain unbeaten on the year.  We felt there were three really good teams in the Colonial this year, but Hofstra was not one of the three.  They’ll face South Carolina today for a chance to pick up another good early season win away from home.

-Georgetown appears to be getting progressively better.  They started off with a loss to Radford, then nearly upset Maryland, and then actually did win against Wisconsin.  They’ll face Duke on Sunday in the championship game, who got all they could handle from a really good VCU team.

-Ohio State ended up getting more than all they could handle from UT Arlington in what was probably the biggest surprise of the day.  It’s the first time Ohio State has lost an out of conference game to an unranked team in I don’t know how long.  The Buckeyes are young and have a lot of work to do.

-Miami FL had blown past everyone they had played coming into today, and we felt they’d get their first real challenge against Utah in the Puerto Rico Tip Off.  We were wrong.  They totally blew past Utah as well, and will face Butler on Sunday in a very compelling championship game.  I know it’s early and this may not end up meaning a lot, but Miami FL’s win today was the most impressive and decisive win against a highly ranked team so far.

-Last but not least, Xavier was a team I was big on, but that hadn’t looked impressive at all in their first two games against weak teams.  They went into Michigan, played with a lot of intensity, and ended up winning decisively.  The Musketeers really appear to have something this year.  If they play well in the Advocare Classic this week they’ll end up in the rankings very quickly.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-OLD DOMINION VS PURDUE (Hall of Fame Tip Off).  Both teams come in unbeaten, but also untested.  We really like this Old Dominion team, but if they want to solidify themselves as an at-large caliber team it is very important that they do well in this tournament because their chances at quality wins are limited.  Even though the season is just a week old, this game has a very pivotal feel for the Monarchs.

-NORTH FLORIDA AT LOUISVILLE.  This is a buy game, but North Florida won their opener very convincingly against Illinois, so there is reason to think they can test Louisville.  Both teams come into this game unbeaten, and although Louisville may appear to be superior, North Florida has played the tougher schedule up to this point.

-WILLIAM & MARY AT DAYTON.  Both these teams are probably much better than what most realize.  Both have blown through their competition up to this point, including a convincing road win against NC State for William & Mary, and a blowout win against Alabama for Dayton.  This is one of the better games of the day, so it should be fun.

-CHARLESTON AT DAVIDSON.  Both teams come in unbeaten, although Charleston is likely to fall fast.

-BELMONT AT EVANSVILLE.  Belmont is off to an okay start, but they need to pick up wins like this if they want to end up inside the Bubble.  Evansville won their opener and we still think they can be a dark horse.

-NORTHEASTERN AT LIPSCOMB.  Northeastern hasn’t looked that impressive so far, but they haven’t lost yet.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT NORTHERN IOWA.  This is a somewhat unusual road game for the Tarheels, and it’s a huge showcase game for the Panthers.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE VS TCU (Cancun Challenge).  Both teams come in at 2-0.  South Dakota State is one of the teams we like to do well in the Summit League, and we’ll get a chance to learn something about them in this tournament.

-FLORIDA VS SAINT JOSEPH’S (Hall of Fame Tipoff).  I keep waiting for Saint Joseph’s to hit the skids and fall apart, but they haven’t lost a game yet and this is a chance to kind of catapult themselves onto the national radar so to speak.  Both teams come in unbeaten.

-CHATTANOOGA AT ILLINOIS.  Chattanooga has one notable win against Georgia already.  If they can pick up this one they’ll walk away with a very impressive early profile.

-NEW MEXICO AT USC.  I don’t expect either team to be in the picture by the end of the year, but as of now both are unbeaten.

OREGON STATE AT UC SANTA BARBARA.  Oregon State is unbeaten and is trying to pick up their second road win.

-PENNSYLVANIA AT WASHINGTON.  Both teams are unbeaten.

-UALR AT SAN DIEGO STATE.  UALR comes in unbeaten, but they haven’t played in a game as challenging as this.  San Diego State has the loss to Utah, but we’re expecting them to have a big year.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT JAMES MADISON.  JMU’s only loss is at West Virginia.  I think they’re good enough to end up on or near the bubble, but they have a very small margin for error and need to take care of business in games like this.

-FLORIDA STATE VS DEPAUL (Paradise Jam).  Florida State was upset by Hofstra in the first game, but still has a good team and plays the kind of schedule that will allow them to get back on track.

 

BUY GAMES

-UMass Lowell @ Notre Dame
-Emporia State (nondiv1) @ Wichita State
-UNC Asheville @ Texas A&M
-Elon @ Syracuse
-Brown @ Providence
-Cleveland State @ Rhode Island
-Furman @ UConn
-Mount Saint Mary’s @ Gonzaga

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