Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report Podcast tonight and posting it tomorrow.  We’ll review all of the action from the opening weekend, and looking at the upcoming exempt tournaments

-Grand Canyon won their opener against Portland State.  They are our favorites to finish first in the WAC, and we would be projecting them into the field if they were eligible, but because they are a transitional team, they are not.  Grand Canyon is our adopted team!!  They are the Team of the People!!  LET’S FIGHT FOR THE LOPES!!  Tweet at the NCAA!!  #LopesWaiver

BRACKET NOTES

-You don’t need to tell me that doing brackets this early is pointless, or that the bracket below looks completely insane.  I know that.  So, why do a bracket when most teams have only played one game??  In truth, it’s not very practical to build a bracket that forecasts anything at this point because all 351 teams are separated by just two games.  Going through this process is more about beginning to monitor the teams than it is evaluating their tournament resumes (which only have one game on them at this point), so you have to look at this in that context.

-There are basically three categories of teams right now; Teams that we think are good but haven’t challenged themselves, teams that we think are good but who lost to weak teams, and teams who we feel aren’t quite so good but who won a big game and therefore earned a good seed.  In other words….

North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Virginia, Maryland, Kansas, Arizona, Indiana, and several others haven’t beaten anyone that was all that hard to beat, but they haven’t done anything to show that they aren’t deserving of being highly ranked.

North Florida, Belmont, Radford, William & Mary, James Madison, Western Illinois, Sacramento State, and Chattanooga are all teams that for the most part aren’t likely to end up inside the bubble (although I do think Valpo, Belmont, and perhaps William & Mary might), but they all went on the road and won a game against a good team.  So, they’re all inside the bubble now.

Wisconsin, UCLA, Xavier, and Utah are teams that we think will likely end up very safely in the field, but who either lost a game to a weak team or really struggled against a weak team at home, so they’re seeded poorly or not in the field at all.

-One more thing that you are not likely to see in March is the bubble being at the #14 line, but with so many teams from what are normally one-bid leagues winning big games over the weekend it pushes them up the seed list ahead of the teams on the bubble.  For now.  I don’t anticipate it staying that way.

-There were 97 teams that we considered for the field, and all are listed below in the “Seed List Notes.”

-And, like I said earlier, I know it looks crazy.  You don’t need to tell me that.  The reason it looks crazy is because of what was stated above.

SEED LIST NOTES

1. NORTH CAROLINA – 2-0 with a neutral win vs Temple
2. Duke – 2-0
3. KENTUCKY – 2-0
4. GONZAGA – game against Pitt was cancelled
5. Virginia – 1-0
6. MARYLAND – 1-0
7. KANSAS – 1-0
8. Oklahoma
9. ARIZONA – 1-0
10. Indiana – 1-0. Won easily against Eastern Illinois
11. Iowa State – 1-0 with a win over Colorado
12. VILLANOVA – 1-0. Big win against Fairleigh Dickinson
13. CINCINNATI – 2-0. Impressive showing in both wins
14. Baylor – 1-0. Blasted a good SFA team
15. WICHITA STATE – 1-0
16. Purdue – 2-0. Dominated NC A&T and Vermont
17. Connecticut – 1-0
18. California – 1-0
19. Butler – 1-0. Destroyed the Citadel
20. Vanderbilt – 1-0.
21. Lsu – 1-0. Struggled to beat McNeese State
22. Providence – 1-0. Beat a pretty good Harvard team
23. Michigan. 1-0. Has not yet played a div1 team
24. Notre Dame – 1-0
25. Miami FL – 1-0
26. Michigan State 1-0. Dominated Florida Atlantic
27. WILLIAM & MARY. 1-0. Decisive road win at NC State
28. NORTH FLORIDA – 1-0. Decisive road win at Illinois
29. SAN DIEGO STATE – 1-0. Beat a decent Illinois State team
30. DAYTON – 1-0. Decisive win against SEMO
31. West Virginia – 1-0
32. James Madison – 1-0. Impressive road win at Richmond
33. Rhode Island – 1-0. Beat American, but lost a E. C. Matthews to injury
34. Florida State – 1-0
35. VALPARAISO – 2-0. Decisive win against a good Iona team
36. WESTERN ILLINOIS – 1-0. Won at Wisconsin
37. RADFORD – 1-0. Won at Georgetown
38. MONMOUTH – 1-0. Won at UCLA
39. CHATTANOOGA – won at Georgia
40. Vcu – 1-0
41. BELMONT – 1-0. Won at Marquette
42. Oregon – 1-0
43. Utah – 1-0. Struggled against a very weak Southern Utah team
44. Ohio State – 1-0. Dominated a fairly decent Mount Saint Mary’s team
45. Xavier – 1-0. Struggled against what appears to be a weak Miami OH team
46. Louisville – 1-0
47. Wake Forest – Nice road win at Bucknell
48. SACRAMENTO STATE – 1-0. Won @ Arizona State
49. Auburn – 1-0. Has several injured players, but still beat UAB
50. OLD DOMINION – 1-0
51. Tulsa – 1-0
52. Utah State – 1-0. David Collette has left the team, which will hurt
53. Byu – 1-0
54. Texas A&M. 1-0
55. Davidson – 1-0. Struggled against UCF
56. Florida – 1-0
57. Washington – 1-0. Win against Texas in China
58. Northeastern – 1-0. Road win at Boston U.
59. Iowa – 1-0. Win over Gardner Webb
60. Oregon State – has yet to play a div1 game
61. Evansville – 1-0. Win against SEMO
62. CENTRAL MICHIGAN – 1-0. Struggled to beat Jacksonville St.
63. Loyola Chicago – 2-0. Just one div1 win against UTSA
64. UC IRVINE – 1-0
65. LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE – has yet to play a div1 team
66. Saint Joe’s – 1-0. Win against a decent Drexel team
67. George Washington – 1-0.
68. COLUMBIA – Has not yet played a div1 team
69. ALBANY – Good showing against Kentucky
70. Oklahoma State – 1-0
71. Northwestern – 1-0. Beat a weak UMass Lowell team
72. South Dakota State – has not yet played a div1 team
73. NORTH DAKOTA STATE – 1-1
74. Wisconsin – 1-1. Lost to Western Illinois
75. Minnesota – 2-0. Beat a fairly decent ULM team
76. Colorado State – 1-0. Won at Northern Iowa
77. DePaul – 1-0. Nice win against a fairly decent Western Michigan team
78. Seton Hall – 2-0, but wins came against low caliber teams
79. Texas – 0-1. Lost to Washington
80. South Carolina – 1-0. Win against Norfolk St.
81. STEPHEN F AUSTIN – 0-1. Blown out by Baylor
82. Nebraska – 1-0
83. Creighton – 1-0. Dominated Texas Southern
84. Georgetown – 0-1. Lost to Radford.
85. New Mexico – 2-0. Won at New Mexico State
86. Boise State – 0-1. lost at Montana
87. Ole Miss – 1-0
88. Stanford – 2-0. Struggled against Green Bay
89. Nevada – 2-0. Decisive win against Coastal Carolina
90. Fresno State – 1-0. Struggled to beat Pepperdine
91. Unlv – 1-0. Barely beat Cal Poly
92. Georgia – 0-1. Lost at home to Chattanooga
93. Ucla – 1-1. Lost to Radford. Struggled with Cal Poly
94. BUCKNELL – 0-1. Lost at home to a good Wake Forest team
95. NEW MEXICO STATE – 1-1
96. ALABAMA A&M – 1-0. Won against Tulane
97. HAMPTON – 0-1
98. SACRED HEART – 1-0. Only NEC team to win a div1 game so far

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 16TH

-VIRGINIA AT GEORGE WASHINGTON.  Virginia loves to play an early road game against a regional team every year.  It’s a chance for them to pick up a notable road win if they win, and it’s not overly damaging for them if they don’t win.  It’s a huge chance for GW to take on a highly ranked team on their home floor.

-JAMES MADISON AT WEST VIRGINIA.  This is a big game for a James Madison.  They’re a good team, and this is the kind of win that would impress the committee and land them inside the bubble.

-LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AT MIAMI FL.  Louisiana Lafayette is one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt.  This is a big test for them as they take on what looks to be a good Miami team that won their first game.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT UTAH.  Both teams won their first game and appear to be solid NCAA Tournament teams, so it’ll be a quality win for whoever pulls it off.

-UTRGV AT NORTH FLORIDA.  North Florida had a big win in their first game and shouldn’t have too much trouble improving to 2-0 in their home opener.

-BELMONT AT ARIZONA STATE.  Belmont already has one notable road win at Marquette, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they picked up another one tonight against an Arizona State team who lost their home opener.

-BAYLOR AT OREGON.  Both teams are 1-0 and are likely tournament teams.  Baylor looked very impressive in their opener as they blasted a pretty good SFA team.

-BUFFALO AT OLD DOMINION.  ODU won their opener and can improve to 2-0 as they take on a Buffalo team that’s rebuilding.

-TENNESSEE AT GEORGIA TECH.  I’m not expecting too much from either team this year, but as for now both are 1-0.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT SOUTH CAROLINA.  Both teams are 1-0.

-COLUMBIA AT KANSAS STATE.  Columbia is one of the favorites to win the Ivy League.  K State, who won their opener, is their first div1 opponent and it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Lions pulled it out.

-NORTHERN ARIZONA AT BOISE STATE.  Boise doesn’t have a huge margin for error if they want to make the NCAAs, so they need to rebound after losing their opener.

-BYU AT LONG BEACH STATE.  BYU won their opener and will try to add a road win to their resume.

-ELON AT MICHIGAN.  Buy game, but Elon did win their opener.

-AUSTIN PEAY AT INDIANA.  Buy game.

-NC A&T AT FLORIDA.  Buy game.

-CHICAGO STATE AT IOWA STATE. Buy game.

-SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AT TEXAS A&M. Buy game

-ARKANSAS PINE BLUFF AT OKLAHOMA STATE.  Buy game.  Both teams are 1-0.

-GARDNER WEBB AT VANDERBILT.  Buy game

-KENNESAW STATE AT LSU.  Buy game

-UC SANTA BARBARA AT CALIFORNIA.  Buy game.  Both teams 1-0.

For a complete viewing guide for all games, check out MattSarzSports.com by CLICKING HERE

FRIDAY, NOV 13TH

-BELMONT AT MARQUETTE (***Spotlight Game***).  On the surface this may not look like much, but Belmont returns a ton from last year’s team that finished strong and made the NCAA Tournament.  If they want an at-large bid, this is the kind of game they need to win, and I think it’s the kind of game they’re capable of winning.  Marquette should be much improved, and this is a good test for them to see if they actually are.

-SFA AT BAYLOR (***Spotlight Game***).  Baylor is a good team, and beating them at home is a very tall order, but SFA’s schedule is so weak that they really do need to win a game like this if they want any shot at an at-large, and this appears to be the best game on SFA’s schedule.  If they win this one, they’ll have a chance.  If they don’t, then they pretty much need to win the rest of them.

-PORTLAND STATE AT GRAND CANYON.  Your Lopes ladies and gentlemen!!  The Lopes are the Team of the People!!  They open what we feel can turn out to be their best season since moving up to div1 tonight, and you can watch your Lopes live by CLICKING HERE!!  They’re one of the best teams in the WAC, but are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to being a transitional program.  They need a waiver!!  Tweet at the NCAA!!  Emaill the NCAA!  Call the NCAA!  Let’s make this happen!!  #LopesWaiver

-VERMONT AT EASTERN MICHIGAN.  Highlighted only because it is the first official game of the 2015-2016 season, and the winner will be leading all of college basketball for a few short hours!!!

-COLORADO VS IOWA STATE (Souix Falls, SD).  We feel Iowa State will contend for a high seed.  We’re not expecting much out of Colorado, but a win in a game like this can catapult them a long way in a hurry.  I don’t know why this game is in Sioux Falls.

-PITTSBURGH AT GONZAGA (Okinawa, Japan).  Twelve hour flights make me want to ram my head against the wall.  This is about an eighteen hour flight for both teams.  We feel Gonzaga will contend for a high seed and that Pitt will struggle to make the field.  This would be a huge win on Pitt’s profile and really change the complexion of their season if they’re able to pull it of.

-NORTH CAROLINA VS TEMPLE (Annapolis, MD).  I’m expecting this one to end badly for Temple.  UNC is ranked #1, and I don’t feel they’re overrated.

-SIENA AT DUKE.  I realize this is a buy game, but it’s interesting enough to be with the highlights because Siena is a potential sleeper in the MAAC.  That being said, this is probably way too tall of an order.

-CHATTANOOGA AT GEORGIA.  Another buy game with higher than buy game interest.  Chattanooga is our pick to win the SoCon, and if they want to do the seemingly impossible and land inside the bubble, these are the kinds of games they need to win.  Georgia is a team that we think will make the tournament.  Well, some of us think that, anyway.  It should be a fun matchup.

-UTRVG @ MIAMI FL.  A huge mismatch of a game, but we highlight it so we can officially welcome UTVRG into existence!!!  We’re not just merely welcoming them to div1.  We’re welcoming them into existing as a basketball program!!

-JAMES MADISON AT RICHMOND.  James Madison is really good this year, and some of us feel they can land inside the bubble.  Richmond isn’t exactly a world beater, but they are likely a challenging team to go on the road and beat.  But, it’s the kind of game that an at-large team is expected to be able to win, so JMU will be tested right out of the gate.

-NORTHEASTERN AT BOSTON U.  Hoops HD is collectively not as big on Northeastern as I am.  I think they can be an at-large team.  But, to do that they need to win on the road, and they certainly need to do it against teams of the caliber of Boston U (no offense, but BU is not exactly an at-large caliber team).  I hope they don’t embarrass me because if they do, I’ll not soon hear the end of it.

-NORTH FLORIDA AT ILLINOIS.  We believe North Florida to be the best team in the Atlantic Sun and Illinois to be below the middle of the standings in a very strong Big Ten.  That makes for a potentially interesting game.

-WILLIAM & MARY AT NC STATE.  A really good game here between two tournament hopefuls.  I like this William & Mary team, and a win tonight would be hugely important to their profile and to their at-large chances.  Many think they’re an outside shot at best, but that will start to change if they can get wins in games like this.

-NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT UC DAVIS.  This may seem like an odd game to highlight, but I like this NDSU team, and could see them ending up around the bubble if they win the games they’re supposed to.  That would include this one, BTW.

-UTAH STATE AT WEBER STATE.  Utah State is one of the Hoops HD sleepers.  Starting things off with a win on the road against a rival would be huge.

-WOFFORD AT MISSOURI.  Not only can Wofford win this game, I expect them to.

-BOISE STATE AT MONTANA.  Boise is a team that most of us are expecting to land inside the bubble.  Whenever you open the season on the road in a game like this it’s an early test, but it’s a chance to get a road win on their profile against a team that will likely be strong at home this year, and although that doesn’t set the world on fire, it is at least noteworthy when looking at a team’s profile.

-UAB AT AUBURN.  An intriguing in-state match up between two tournament hopefuls.  This game is probably bigger for UAB seeing as how they have far fewer chances on their schedule to pick up quality wins.  I’d go so far to say that even though it’s the season opener it has a huge sense of urgency to it for UAB since they have so few chances.  The media isn’t as big on Auburn as we are, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them inside the bubble come March.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE.  Illinois State appears to be around the middle of the Missouri Valley, but some of us feel they are a potential sleeper.  If they can pull off a win like this in their season opener, they won’t be a sleeper anymore.

-TEXAS AT WASHINGTON (Shanghai, China).  Shaka Smart officially makes his debut at Texas!!  And he’s going half way around the world to do it!!

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 14TH

-COLORADO STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA.  Both teams are in big time rebuilding mode and I’m not expecting much out of either one, but it’s a slow day and one of these teams is gonna start off with a win.

-HARVARD AT PROVIDENCE.  The thing about the Ivy League is that the teams don’t need to play their way inside of the bubble in case they lose in the conference tournament because their is no conference tournament, so the same sense of urgency isn’t quite there in November and December.  But, this is a game between a tournament hopeful who could end up hovering around the #12 line in Harvard, and a likely tournament team in Providence.  The styles are contrasting, so this one should be fun.

-UCF AT DAVIDSON.  I don’t think this is a buy game, but I do think it is a rather big mismatch and may end up looking like one.  Davidson should roll.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15TH

-WAKE FOREST AT BUCKNELL.  Kind of an odd road game for a Wake team that should be much improved this year.

-IONA AT VALPARAISO.  Most casual fans won’t think of it this way, but this is a great game between what we believe to be the best team in the MAAC in Iona, and what we believe to be a potential at-large caliber team in Valpo.  If Iona can pull off the win, it could be a bigger win on their profile than what most people currently realize.  Both teams are good.

-NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT ILLINOIS.  I like this North Dakota State team, and it’ll be interesting to see what they can do against Illinois.  It’s a big opening weekend for the Bison.

BUY GAMES (Brought to you by Hostess)

-Northwestern State @ Ole Miss (Friday)
-Wagner @ Saint John’s (Friday).  The Johnnies looked so bad in their first exhibition game that it wouldn’t shock me if they lost.
-Niagara @ Old Dominion (Friday).  I like ODU, but they have a somewhat smaller margin for error.
-North Carolina A&T @ Purdue (Friday)
-Albany @ Kentucky (Friday).  For buy game standards, this one isn’t bad.  Albany is one of the better teams in the America East, but they’re punching way over their heads in this one.
-Northern Kentucky @ West Virginia (Friday)
-Prairie View A&M @ VCU (Friday)
-Western Carolina @ Cincinnati (Friday)
-Mount Saint Mary’s at Maryland (Friday)
-Morgan State at Virginia (Friday).  Virginia plays very few cupcakes.  This is one of them.
-Southeast Missouri @ Dayton (Friday)
-Northern Michigan (nondiv1) @ Michigan (Friday).  Why??
-UNC Asheville @ Tennessee (Friday)
-Lehigh @ Syracuse (Friday)
-Eastern Illinois @ Indiana (Friday)
-Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State (Friday)
-Samford @ Louisville (Friday)
-Fairleigh Dickinson @ Villanova (Friday)
-Miami OH @ Xavier (Friday)
-Sacramento State @ Arizona State (Friday).  The Curtain of Distraction!!!!
-Maine @ UConn (Friday)
-Saint Francis U @ Notre Dame (Friday)
-Northern Colorado @ Kansas (Friday)
-Tennessee Martin @ Oklahoma State (Friday)
-UMass Lowell @ Northwestern (Friday)
-Charleston Southern @ Wichita State (Friday)
-UMBC @ Wake Forest (Friday)
-American @ Rhode Island (Friday).  Rhody is one of the better teams in the A10 this year.
-Austin Peay at Vanderbilt (Friday)
-UTSA @ Loyola Chicago (Friday).  I think Loyola was much improved last year, and even more improved this year.
-Kennesaw State @ Alabama (Friday).  The Avery Johnson era begins at Bama
-IPFW @ Valparaiso (Friday)
-Utah Valley @ BYU (Friday)
-McNeese State @ LSU (Friday)
-Western Illinois @ Wisconsin (Friday)
-Eastern Washington @ Mississippi State (Friday)
-Pacific @ Arizona (Friday)
-Chadron State (nondiv1) @ South Dakota State.  SDSU is a good team, but they’re not exactly swinging for the fences in their opener.
-Pepperdine @ Fresno State (Friday)
-Jackson State @ Oregon (Friday)
-Southern Utah @ Utah (Friday)
-Monmouth @ UCLA (Friday)
-Rice @ California (Friday)
-Northwest Christian @ Oregon State (Saturday)
-Radford @ Georgetown (Saturday)
-Central Arkansas @ Tulsa (Saturday)
-Norfolk State @ South Carolina (Saturday)
-The Citadel @ Butler (Saturday)
-NJIT @ Kentucky (Saturday)
-Bryant @ Duke (Saturday)
-Mount Saint Mary’s @ Ohio State (Sunday)
-Vermont @ Purdue (Sunday)
-Robert Morris @ Cincinnati (Sunday)
-Nicholls State @ Florida State (Sunday)
-Southeast Missouri @ Evansville (Sunday)
-Fairfield @ North Carolina (Sunday)
-Coppin State @ Iowa (Sunday)
-South Alabama @ NC State (Sunday)
-Siena @ Wisconsin (Sunday)
-Cal Poly @ UCLA (Sunday)