Conference Preview: WAC

Posted on November 2, 2015 by Chad

For the rest of our Preseason Coverage, CLICK HERE.

WAC

The final of our small/mid-major previews is, of course, the WAC,  and starting tomorrow previews will be posted of the top nine conferences.  There was a day when the WAC was among those top leagues, but much has changed, from the conference’s split with the Mountain West all the way to the most recent round of realignment that saw almost all of their FBS football-playing members finding other homes.  In fact, only one FBS team remains, the New Mexico State Aggies.  Although the Aggies have struggled mightily in football, their basketball team has become the dominant player in the conference, capturing four straight WAC tournament titles in convincing fashion (only one conference tournament victory in that four year span was decided by less than 5 points).  Last year, the Aggies rode their conference tournament championship to a 15 seed, where they lost in the Round of 64 to Kansas.  Grand Canyon received a postseason invite to the CIT, while Seattle played in the CBI, advancing to the semifinals of that event.

This year, New Mexico State is the pick to again win the conference’s automatic bid — though in an unusual twist, they are not the pick to win the regular season title.  That honor goes to Thunder Dan Majerle’s Grand Canyon Antelopes.  The ‘Lopes are in their third of four transitional years to the Division I level and as such are ineligible for the WAC and NCAA tournaments.  The job that has been done building this team into a Division I program has been remarkable, as they received invites to the CIT in each of their first two transitional years and appear likely to be headed back to that event again this season.  The pieces appear to be in place this season to make a run at the conference regular season title as well.  It will not be easy as New Mexico State, UMKC, Cal State-Bakersfield and Seattle could all be in contention for the top spot in the conference as well.  One team that will likely not be contending for the league crown, but is worth mentioning, is Texas Rio Grande Valley.  The Vaqueros are the newly branded incarnation of the school formerly known as Texas-Pan American.  UTPA merged campuses with neighboring Texas-Brownsville, but given that Brownsville was an NAIA program, UTRGV (for NCAA purposes at least) simply counts s a new name from the former UTPA, and will not have to undergo a transition to the D1 level.

Predicted Order of Finish

1.  Grand Canyon – DeWayne Russell and Joshua Braun form a solid backcourt as each averaged double-digits in scoring last season.  Up front, the ‘Lopes will rely on a pair of transfers, Grandy Glaze from Saint Louis and Uros Ljeskovic from Coastal Carolina.  The pieces appear to be here to capture the regular season crown, even if they are not eligible for the conference tournament.

2.  New Mexico State – Despite losing three starters from last year’s team, the Aggies still have Pascal Siakam and Ian Baker to lead a young, talented team that is good enough to win, especially if 7-3 Tanveer Bhullar is able to make an impact.

3.  UMKC – Martez Harrison may be the best guard, or possibly even the best overall player, in the WAC.  If Shayok Shayok proves to be healthy down low, the ‘Roos could challenge for the league title.

4.  Cal State-Bakersfield – The Roadrunners have Aly Ahmed and Kevin Mays down low, plus Damiyne Durham in the backcourt.  Those three players alone could make them a dangerous team.

5.  Seattle – The Redhawks have a ton of size down low led by 6-11 Jack Crook and 7-3 Aaron Menzies.  If they can find the scoring options to make up for the losses of Isiah Umipig and Jarell Flora, the rest of the league better watch out.

6.  Texas-Rio Grande Valley – The Vaqueros will need significant production from freshmen and transfers if they want to avoid the same type of long season that they suffered as UTPA last year.

7.  Utah Valley – New head coach Mark Pope could be in for a long first season as he begins rebuilding the Wolverines.  The good news is that he brought in a handful of talented transfers.  The bad news is that they are all required to sit out this year.

8.  Chicago State – Seven players transferred after last season and only one starter, Trayvon Palmer, returns.  The Cougars only won eight games last year and may be hard-pressed to just equal that number this time around.

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Season preview: Virginia coach Tony Bennett

Posted on November 2, 2015 by Jon Teitel

For the rest of our extensive Preseason Coverage – CLICK HERE

Tony Bennett is such an amazing coach that he has been named national COY at 2 different schools (Washington State and Virginia)!  He is even getting better with age, and his past 2 years with the Cavaliers have featured back-to-back 30-win seasons, a pair of ACC regular season titles, and the program’s highest ranking in more than 3 decades.  He is 1 of only 15 D-1 coaches who took less than 9 seasons to win 200 games, and the only current D-1 coach who has wins over all 5 active Hall of Fame coaches (Jim Boeheim/Larry Brown/Mike Krzyzewski/Rick Pitino/Roy Williams).  You will not find a better defensive coach in the nation…literally, as last year’s team finished #1 by allowing only 51.5 PPG.  HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Bennett about being the Academic All-American of the Year and being part of a famous coaching family.

tony

You played for your father Dick at Wisconsin–Green Bay, your sister Kathi won a national title as coach at Wisconsin-Oshkosh, and your uncle Jack won national titles in 2004/2005 as head coach at Wisconsin–Stevens Point: do you think coaching is just in your genes, and who is the best coach in the family? My cousin Nick won a D-3 national title as an assistant at Wisconsin-Whitewater, so I guess it is in our blood. When I was in school I wanted to have a long playing career: watching all my relatives go up and down on the coaching roller coaster did not appeal to me. After getting hurt I became a player-coach and got bit by the coaching bug. It was unfair that my 1st experience at the coaching level was going to the Final 4. My sister Kathi is probably the best coach in the family.

What are your memories of the 1991 NCAA tourney (All-American Steve Smith hit a buzzer-beating fall-away jump shot to clinch a 2-PT win for Michigan State)? My dad is known for his defense, but I remember that every time we switched to a 1-3-1 zone (which was out of character for us) Smith would just hit a 3 from NBA range. I had an awful 2nd half and felt that I let our whole team down.

Take me through the 1991 Pan Am Games in Cuba as a member of team USA:
Your coach was Gene Keady and you had several teammates who went on to become NBA stars (Grant Hill/Jimmy Jackson/Christian Laettner): what was it like to play for Coach Keady, and which of your teammates impressed you the most? Whenever you are around a coach of Keady’s caliber you cannot help but learn a lot. He was tough but fair and a good person who challenged us: I regret that we could not get a gold medal for him. You could tell that Grant Hill was going to be special and Laettner was a complete player. We had a lot of great players: Walt Williams, Adam Keefe, Clarence Weatherspoon, etc. It was quite an experience for me to come from Green Bay and end up as the starting PG on that team.

Thomas Hill shattered a backboard with a pre-game dunk before you even tipped off against Cuba: what do you remember about the dunk, and how did the crowd react to it? I believe that Fidel Castro was in attendance so there was an air of electricity. I assumed that Weatherspoon broke the backboard because he was so powerful. In the US they would have just rolled out another basket, but in Cuba it ended up being a delay of almost an hour.

You lost to Puerto Rico with Jackson sitting out due to a stress fracture, but you ended up winning a bronze medal while racking up 15 STL in 7 games: what did it mean to you to win a bronze medal? Jackson was our leading scorer at the time so his injury greatly affected us. It was great to participate and win a medal…but we were capable of winning a gold medal. That was the last year that amateurs played for USA basketball before the Dream Team came along in 1992. When you are with that many good players you just find ways to do whatever it takes to help the team.

You were a 2-time conference POY, an All-American, and the Frances Pomeroy Naismith Award winner (for the most outstanding senior under 6’ tall): what did it mean to you to win such outstanding honors? Anytime you get an athletic achievement you feel fortunate because there are so many talented players out there. It is so much more fun to win conference titles and tourney games, as that is evidence of the team’s success. I am thankful for the gifts I have. Virginia is an unbelievable combination of athletics (since we play in the ACC) and academics (as we are the #1-ranked public university in the country).

You were also named GTE Academic All-American of the Year: how much importance do you place on academics? After all of my injuries I came to realize that when the lights in the gym finally get turned off, you better be well prepared for life, which is why you have to perform in the classroom as well.

You finished your career as the MCC’s all-time leader in PTS/AST, and you are still the NCAA’s all-time career leader with 49.7 3P%: did you realize at the time how prolific a player you were, and what was your secret for 3-PT shooting? I played for my dad and my mom took care of the stats, so it was a family affair! I am a lefty, so the other lefties out there know that they are better shooters. I loved the game and was taught to play as efficiently as possible on both ends of the floor. I modeled my game after guys like Mark Price, Isiah Thomas, and Gail Goodrich (a lefty who wore #25 just like me). I also learned a lot from my older sister: I would play pickup games with her and some of her friends. If you make a lot of turnovers and jack up a lot of bad shots, you will not last long on the court.

In the summer of 1992 you were drafted 35th overall by the Charlotte Hornets (6 spots behind PJ Brown): did you see that as a validation of your college career, or the realization of a lifelong dream of reaching the NBA, or both? A little bit of both: what kid does not dream of that? When I went to play for my dad at Green Bay, I told him that I had 2 goals: I wanted to help turn the program around to get into the tourney, and I also wanted to make it to the NBA. I told him to push me as hard as he wanted to in order to make those things happen, and he did. I played in the Olympic festival after my freshman year for Coach Jud Heathcote, facing guys like Bobby Hurley/Kenny Anderson, and that is when I realized that I had a chance to make the NBA. I was hoping to get picked in the 1st round but still had 3 real good years with the Hornets. It was absolutely a dream come true, but also validation for those people that thought a kid from Green Bay could not make it. I remember going to an elite basketball camp after high school (where Shawn Kemp won the slam dunk contest) and thought that I played well, but I did not even make the top-80. I was ticked that I was not as good as a lot of the guys there so I used that as motivation.

What are your memories of Game 4 of the 1993 Eastern Conference 1st round series vs. Boston (Alonzo Mourning made a 20-foot buzzer-beater to win the series for Charlotte)? If I had to pick my greatest moment in the NBA, it would be “the shot”. Someone sent me the photo and I framed it. I was on the floor boxing out Dee Brown, and then we all piled on Alonzo like little kids!

You retired from the NBA in 1995 due to a foot injury and spent 4 years as a player and coach in New Zealand: did you feel frustrated that you could not go out on your own terms, and how did New Zealand compare to the NBA? I was a backup PG and not great by any means, but hoping that I would get better over time. I had some unfortunate injuries: every athlete wants to play as long as they can and it is hard to get cut short in your prime. I gave it 1 more chance overseas and realized that it was not going to happen. It was a great experience to be a coach because it was so much more than just working the sideline: I had to sign players, get involved in the community, secure sponsorships, etc. I had also married my wife right before then so it was also like an extended honeymoon for us.

Take me through the magical 2000 NCAA tourney as a member of your dad’s staff at Wisconsin:
You came into the tourney as a #8-seed and beat Fresno State by 10 PTS while holding Courtney Alexander to 11 PTS (5-19 FG): how were you able to bottle up the nation’s leading scorer, or did he just have a cold shooting night? I am sure that he was a little off but our team defense was incredible. Our best individual defender was a guy named Mike Kelley who locked up so many great players that season.

You had a 7-PT upset over #1-seed Arizona with Loren Woods sitting out due to a back injury (the 1st time your school won 2 games in a single tourney since 1941): do you think that you still could have beaten them if Woods was healthy, and what was the reaction like back on campus? It was crazy.  That Arizona team was loaded (Jason Terry/Richard Jefferson/Jason Gardner/etc.). We were up big early and then they cut into our lead in the 2nd half. Woods sitting out helped us a lot but I do not know if anyone was going to beat us that night.

You beat LSU while holding them to 27 PTS below their season average: is it a matter of teaching specific defensive principles, or do you just need a bunch of hard workers who are willing to hustle all over the court? It is a combination: defense is so much about what is inside your players’ hearts but the coach also has to teach sound habits. As you have seen recently, teams who win titles must be borderline great on defense to have a chance.

You got into the Final 4 with a 4-PT win over Purdue and Coach Keady thanks to making 8 FT in the final 90 seconds: how were you able to make such a deep run as a #8-seed, and how good was the Big 10 that year (featuring 3 of the Elite 8 teams)? The conference was great that year. Keady had coached for so long but had never been to the Final 4. We had beaten them 2 out of 3 times that year and it was quite a battle. So much is made of March Madness but to finally get to the Final 4 was impressive. When we flew back and arrived after midnight we went by the football stadium and got off the bus in front of 30,000 people on a cold night in March.

You lost to eventual national champion Michigan State, who also beat you twice in the regular season and once in the Big 10 tourney: did they beat you 4 times that year because they were just a more talented team? That Spartan team was 1 of the best defensive teams that I have ever seen. Baskets were so hard to come by that night: every shot and cut was contested.

After your dad retired you became an assistant to Bo Ryan, and in 2003 you joined your dad’s staff after he came out of retirement to coach Washington State: what is the best lesson you learned from Coach Ryan? Coach Ryan has built a heck of a program. I really like his demeanor during games: he is very competitive but has a sense of poise about him. He knows how to make the whole greater than the sum of its parts. I was glad that he kept me on the staff as he built a dynasty.

After your father retired again in 2006 you took over as head coach of the Cougars, and in 2007 you were named Pac-10/national COY: how were you able to step in and be so successful so quickly, and how did being named national COY change your life (if at all)? It did not change my life: I was just fortunate. We brought in a big recruiting class of 6 kids and I told them they were going to help us make the jump. I won the national award because we were picked last in the conference that year and finished 2nd, but it was still humbling. I am still trying to learn as much as I can about the game and was brought up to respect every aspect of the game.

Take me through the 2007 NCAA tourney (the 1st tourney for the Cougars since 1994):
You beat Oral Roberts thanks to 5 BLK by Ivory Clark for the school’s 1st tourney win since 1983: how big a deal was it for the program to finally win a tourney game? It was great to just get into the tourney and crack the ice, but to win a game was even better.

You had a 2-OT loss to Vanderbilt after Daven Harmeling missed a 3-PT shot at the end of regulation and Taylor Rochestie’s shot at the end of the 1st OT was blocked: do you agree with Vandy coach Kevin Stallings’ assessment that it was 1 of the best games he has ever been involved in, and did you think that you should have won it? It was the best game I was ever a part of…until the end! Games like that are the reason why people are so drawn to March Madness. Each team made a bunch of runs and we had our chances, but they made the plays.

In the 2008 NCAA tourney you lost to North Carolina in Charlotte as Tyler Hansbrough had 18 PTS/9 REB: did it feel like the Tar Heels had a big home-court advantage, and where does Hansbrough rank among the best college players you have ever seen? We had some breakdowns that cost us against Vandy the previous year so I challenged my guys to learn from that. We were right with the Tar Heels for the 1st 10 minutes but then they got going. Hansbrough was 1 of the most relentless guys I have ever seen. We could not keep them out of the lane in transition and they took it to us.

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Season preview: Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak

Posted on November 1, 2015 by Jon Teitel

For the rest of our extensive Preseason Coverage – CLICK HERE

Larry Krystkowiak was a 3-time Big Sky POY, but is turning out to be just as good a coach at Utah as he was a player at Montana.  After playing almost a decade in the NBA, he became head coach at Montana in 2004 and head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks in 2007.  In 2011 he was hired as head coach at Utah, and after winning only 21 games combined during his 1st 2 years he has had 21+ wins in each of the past 2 years, including a trip to the Sweet 16 last March.  HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Krystkowiak about playing for Mike Montgomery and rebuilding the Utes.

larry

You played at Montana for Mike Montgomery (who is now 1 of your fellow Pac-12 coaches): what makes him such a great coach, and what is the most important thing you ever learned from him? If you look at the Grizzlies coaching tree you see guys like Jud Heathcote/Jim Brandenburg, so he learned his trade from a good group of guys. He understood every concept on the floor and was a good tactician. He was good for me: it was hard to satisfy him but he kept driving me, which is what I needed.

You tried out for the legendary 1984 US Olympic basketball team as a sophomore: how close did you come to making the team? It is hard to say how close I was. I made the cut from 90 down to 32, but then I got sick: I might have caught chicken pox from Terry Porter.

What are your memories of the 1986 NIT (you had 26 PTS/10 REB in a 7-PT loss to TCU)? I do not have a lot of memories because we were dealing with the disappointment of not making the NCAA tourney. TCU had a good ball club and had good answers for our 2-3 matchup zone.

You were a 3-time All-American and remain the only 3-time Big Sky POY (1984–1986): what did it mean to you to win such outstanding individual honors? It is more rewarding when you look back at it now, but at the time I was never satisfied. Nobody wants to peak as a sophomore so it was important to keep working as a junior/senior.

You were also a 2-time Academic All-American: how were you able to balance your work in the classroom with your work on the court? The magic word is “work”: there is nothing easy about it. I was not overly bright but I was prepared and never let things sneak up on me.

In the summer of 1986 you were drafted 28th overall by Chicago (1 spot behind Dennis Rodman): did you see that as a validation of your college career, or the realization of a lifelong dream of reaching the NBA, or other? It was pretty cool. There were 10 rounds back then so it was not that big a deal to get drafted! It was the culmination of all my hard work, but you have to shift gears pretty quick to stick around a while as an NBA player.

What are your memories of the 2004 CBA championship game as coach of the Idaho Stampede (playoff MVP Maurice Carter scored 36 PTS [14-14 FT] in a 3-PT win by the Dakota Wizards)? Dave Joerger was the Dakota coach, who is now the head coach of the Memphis Grizzlies. We had some great battles but it was a 1-game championship game so they got to host it. It was a great game with no defense.

What are your memories of the 2005 NCAA tourney as head coach at Montana (Kamarr Davis had 24 PTS/11 REB in a loss to #1-seed Washington)? I remember it being a bad dream because we were a #16-seed and were down by double-digits pretty early. We lost the game during the 1st 4 minutes but it was still a heck of an experience.

In the 2006 NCAA tourney Andrew Strait had 22 PTS/7 AST in an 8-PT upset of Nevada (the school’s 1st tourney win in over 3 decades): where does that rank among the biggest wins of your career? It is 1 of the biggest. Montana had a lot of great teams over the years but it had been a long time since the school had won a game.

In 2011 you became coach of Utah and had to reconstruct a team that had 8 players who ended up transferring: how goes the rebuilding process, and what are your expectations for the future? It is a lot different situation now than it was 4 years ago. We made it though a pretty tough time: as my doctor says, what does not kill you makes you stronger. We want to compete and have figured out how to do that, so now we have an opportunity to start making some noise.

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Conference Preview: West Coast

Posted on November 1, 2015 by Chad

For the rest of our Preseason Coverage, CLICK HERE.

WEST COAST

Mark Few took over as head coach of the Gonzaga Bulldogs in 2000.  Gonzaga, a small school with a funny sounding name way off somewhere in Washington state.  The Bulldogs were coming off an amazing Elite Eight run in 1999 under head coach Dan Monson, but other small schools had made tournament runs in the past (and have made them since) without becoming national powerhouses.  There was no reason to suspect that anything would be different for the Zags.  Except it was.  In 16 years at the helm, Mark Few has placed his Bulldogs in 16 NCAA tournaments (only Coach K and Tom Izzo have longer current streaks), earning top seeds and even returning the program to the Elite Eight last season.  Gonzaga is now a household name and a regular member of the Top 25.  It has become a destination program for elite recruits.  In other words, Mark Few has done something that would have seemed impossible 16 years ago — turned a small West Coast Conference school into a national power.

This year, once again, Gonzaga appears to be among the nation’s elite — part of a small list of teams that, heading into the season, have a legitimate chance to advance to the Final Four in Houston.  The Bulldogs have one of the best frontcourts in the nation and should dominate the West Coast Conference.  Their biggest competitor should by last year’s only other NCAA participant, a BYU team that got in as an 11 seed and lost in the First Four.  However, the Cougars will have to find a way to win without Tyler Haws’ 22 points per game.

In addition to Gonzaga and BYU, the WCC put three other teams into postseason play last year.  St. Mary’s earned a bid to the NIT, Pepperdine played in the CBI and Portland was in the CIT.  Getting five postseason bids again may be tough this year, though both Pepperdine should be solid again and St. Mary’s should never be overlooked.  The problem is the rest of the conference, where at least five programs all appear to be on the downswing at the same time.  Not only is there a chance for some teams with pretty bad records, but the power rating numbers of the top teams will get negatively impacted by the weaker conference competition.  We can only hope that these programs use this season as a springboard to better things in the future.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Gonzaga – Domantas Sabonis, Kyle Wiltjer and Przemek Karnowski give the Zags one of the nation’s best frontcourts.  If Josh Perkins, Eric McClellan and Silas Melson can help ease the offseason losses in the backcourt, this team will be dominant again.

2.  BYU – Tyler Haws may be gone, but Kyle Collinsworth is not.  He leads a group of talented guards that include Chase Fischer and freshman Nick Emery.  The Cougars have some strength up front as well, including Utah State transfer Kyle Davis.  Even without Haws, enough pieces appear to be present to make it back into the NCAA Tournament.

3.  Pepperdine – The Waves return almost everyone from last year’s CBI team, including strong frontcourt players in Stacy Davis and Jett Raines.  This team could be dangerous, but an NIT appearance is probably its upper limit.

4.  St. Mary’s – The Gaels should never be counted out, and despite the majority of last season’s team being gone, there is no reason to believe they won’t find a way into one postseason tournament or another.  However, in order to get there, they will need Boston College transfer Joe Rahon and some of their freshmen recruits to step up.

5.  Pacific – The Tigers have struggled since their return to the West Coast Conference (and now have to deal with an NCAA investigation into the program as well), but with the bottom half of the league looking weak, they may have a chance to rise in the standings this year.  Ron Verlin’s squad doesn’t have any true star power, but there are plenty of solid pieces here including guard T.J. Wallace and forward Eric Thompson.

6.  Santa Clara – Jared Brownridge is going to score a ton of points, but the Broncos have less pieces this year than they did on last season’s 18 loss team.

7.  Portland – Bryce Pressley and Alec Wintering form a solid backcourt pair, but the Pilots have too many holes, especially down low where they have been strong so often recently, for this team to do much.

8.  San Francisco – Rex Walters only has two notable players returning from last year, Tim Derksen and Devin Watson.  There are simply too many new pieces to blend in for much to be expected.

9.  San Diego – New head coach Lamont Smith faces a long year as he begins to rebuild the Toreros.

10.  Loyola Marymount – Mike Dunlap may eventually get the Lions turned around, but there has been so much turnover heading into this season that matching last year’s eight victories might be considered a success.

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2015-16 Preseason Media Bracket

Posted on October 31, 2015 by John Stalica

With the 2015-16 college basketball season now upon us, it is time for us at HoopsHD to start forecasting what the 2016 NCAA Tournament will look like in March. Our first bracket shows what the field would look like based on the Coaches’ Top 25 Poll along with the projected preseason champions out of the auto-bid leagues. The coaches’ poll here features coaches from all 32 conferences (in many cases, someone else on the coach’s staff will fill out these polls on a weekly basis). This is not to be confused with the NABC rankings that David Griggs will reference on podcasts throughout the season, however. At a later date, we will put together a separate bracket with Chad Sherwood’s preseason picks on the website.

The top seed line features the Top 4 teams in the country – namely #1, Kentucky (South Region), #2 North Carolina (East Region), #3 Maryland (Midwest Region) and #4 Duke (West Region). The next set of 4 teams (the 2-line) features #5 Kansas, #6 Virginia, #7 Iowa State and #8 Oklahoma. This set of 4 teams are seeded according to the S-Curve along with the teams on the 3rd and 4th-seeded lines ranked #9 through #16, respectively. What is remarkable here is that the teams in this bracket can all be seeded in their natural S-Curve positions without having to be moved around due to each region having teams from 4 different conferences. (An exception would arise if, for example, the Big 12 were to have 5 teams in the Top 16.) During the course of the year, the committee will take care to ensure that Louisville (which is hosting the South Regional) is not placed in the South and that Villanova (which has 4 home games at the Wells Fargo Center and is ineligible to play in Philadelphia) is not placed in the East Region. (EDITOR’S NOTE – Thanks to Jason from the Comments section for pointing out that Villanova only has 3 regular-season games scheduled at Wells Fargo Arena – namely Providence, St. John’s and Georgetown. Villanova CAN be considered for the East Region, but for purposes of this exercise I will leave the bracket as is.)

Now that the 1 through 4 seed lines are filled, it is time to look at region balance. If you take the S-Curve rankings and add them up for each region, each region comes out to a point total of 34. The Selection Committee will balance each region within a range of 5 points. (If you remember the 2013 NCAA Tournament, there were questions about why Wichita State was placed in the “Group of Death” – this was because the average S-Curve ranking only took into account the Top 4 seeds for each region, not the whole region).

With each region competitively balanced, it is time to fill in the sub-regional sites. Kentucky will be sent west along I-64 to St. Louis; Duke and North Carolina will be sent to Raleigh (the 3rd point in the Research Triangle). Maryland and Virginia would both be sent to Brooklyn. Iowa State cannot be sent to Des Moines since they are actually the host institution, but will instead go to St. Louis. Kansas goes to Des Moines in their place, and Oklahoma makes the bus ride from Norman to OKC. Villanova goes north to a familiar arena in Providence, Arizona goes to Denver and Gonzaga gets to stay at home in Spokane since Idaho and Washington State are hosting. Gonzaga (unlike Villanova) does not play any “home” games at the Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, so they get to make the mile-long trip from campus to downtown. Wichita State gets to go south to OKC, and Michigan State will fill the last remaining spot in Des Moines. Indiana fills the last spot in Providence, Cal goes up to Spokane and Utah goes next door to Denver.

Once we get to the 5-seed line, #17 Wisconsin is placed in its natural S-Curve slot in the South Region with Kentucky. #18 Notre Dame would ordinarily be assigned to the East Region in Philadelphia, but they are moved to the Midwest to avoid a potential conflict with North Carolina in the Sweet 16. Instead, #19 LSU goes to the East. #20 Vanderbilt should be the final 5-seed, but they get switched with Baylor to avoid potential matchups between Baylor and other Big 12 teams that would not be permissible in the Sweet 16 should Baylor and any of the Big 12 teams meet a 3rd time during the season. After the Baylor/Vandy flip-flop, all of the other teams are slotted in their natural S-Curve slots with little disruption in regards to potential rematches in early-round matchups. I wanted to have the Tulsa/Dayton winner go to OKC to meet Vandy in the 1st round (which is permissible because the Commodores are not considered a protected seed by the Committee), but since Vandy and Dayton play each other this season, this is not allowed. Marquette and Old Dominion were the last teams to get a vote in the Coaches’ Poll, and since we had one more at-large slot to fill, I added UAB (the actual preseason pick in C-USA) as a team that could potentially be considered as the last team in by the Committee via the at-large route. They will face Marquette in the 2nd play-in game.

After Old Dominion (who will be the C-USA Tournament champion for purposes of this exercise), all the remaining teams on the 12 line were voted preseason champions in their respective conferences. For the most part, they are seeded according to a comprehensive ranking by CBSSports.com of all NCAA teams ranked 1-351. At the time this article is published, only the Southwestern Athletic Conference has not announced a preseason pick to win the conference. Therefore, we will go with last year’s champion, Texas Southern (even if they are not our colleague Chad Sherwood’s pick to win the SWAC). There are no teams listed that missed out on the tournament since there were not enough teams listed in the polls.

In short, I have summarized how bracketing principles would be applied to the teams in the polls and preseason conference champions. But, what makes the season exciting is to see who come out of the weeds into the NCAA Tournament and to see which teams fall short of expectations and are instead relegated to the NIT, CIT or CBI (or more appropriately, turning down a CBI bid). Stay tuned as we count down to the beginning of the season on November 13 when the NCAA starts keeping score.

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Conference Preview: SWAC

Posted on October 31, 2015 by Chad

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SWAC

In the 2010-11 season, the Centenary Gents went 1-29. It was the school’s final season at the Division I level. In March 2011, when the HOOPSHD crew convened for its annual Mock Selection Committee meeting, we voted Centenary onto our at-large bid “Under Consideration” board and kept them there throughout the selection process (though they obviously were not selected into the final field). In honor of that final D1 Gents team, the following season we christened the “Centenary Award,” an award given each year to the team chosen by HOOPSHD as the worst team in Division I. This team is placed “Under Consideration” by our Mock Committee each season as the reward for winning the Award, even if they are otherwise ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. In 2012, the award went to Towson (though somewhat controversially). In 2013, it went to an 0-28 Grambling State team. In 2014, Southern Utah captured the honor.

Last season, Grambling became the first ever repeat winner, capturing the award following a 2-27 season that saw them fail to win a single game against Division I competition. The Tigers went 0-18 against SWAC competition, a feat made even the more (or should it be less) impressive by the fact that 6 of the SWAC’s 10 teams lost 20 or more games and only Texas Southern, which captured the automatic bid and a 15 seed in the NCAA Tournament, participated in the postseason (though Mike Davis’ team made headlines early in the season picking up wins at Kansas State and at Final Four-bound Michigan State).

This year, Grambling may again be in contention for the Centenary Award, though a deep recruiting class has them looking forward to better days. Texas Southern will be in the running for the conference title again, but the pick to win it this season is Alabama A&M, a team with six key seniors at the top of their rotation. Alabama State, Southern and Alcorn State could all be in contention for the regular season title as well, though Alcorn State is ineligible for the postseason due to their APR and Southern’s APR data is still being reviewed by the NCAA to determine their eligibility.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Alabama A&M – The Bulldogs have a veteran team with six key seniors and all five starters back from last year. They are led by Ladarius Tabb outside and Nick West inside. All the pieces appear to be here to win the conference title.

2. Texas Southern – The Tigers only return two starters, but they are both double-digit scorers capable of pulling down 10 or more rebounds in Chris Thomas and Malcolm Riley.

3. Southern – The Jaguars are solid in the backcourt with Adrian Rodgers and Trelun Banks but need help down low. The NCAA has finally lifted the blanket ban on postseason play for the entire school due to defects in their APR data, but they are still awaiting final calculation of the most recent team data to confirm their eligibility.

4. Alabama State – Despite losing five seniors off of last season’s team, the Hornets have a solid point guard in Jamel Waters and return the SWAC Freshman of the Year, Steve Rogers.

5. Alcorn State – Three starters return led by Marquis Vance inside. The Braves have a chance to contend for the regular season title under new head coach Montez Robinson; however, they are banned from postseason play this year due to their APR.

6. Jackson State – Raeford Worsham and Kaven Bernard are both solid players, but a lack of outside scoring could be the team’s downfall.

7. Prairie View – Four starters are gone, but the Panthers had depth last season and if former role players can move into starting roles, they may remain competitive in league play.

8. Mississippi Valley State – Only one starter returns from a team that lost 25 games, but a large recruiting class could help as head coach Andre Payne enters his second year at the helm.

9. Arkansas-Pine Bluff – The Golden Lions have a huge lack of depth with only three key contributors returning.

10. Grambling State – Four starters are returning, but those four helped the Tigers claim the “Centenary Award” last season. A deep recruiting class will help in the future, but things appear fairly bleak again this year.

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