-The Bracket Below is not an attempt to guess what the actual committee will do on Selection Sunday, but rather what Chad Sherwood feels the bracket SHOULD look like if the season ended today. Jon Teitel is our selection committee guessing expert. For his latest seed list and bracket – CLICK HERE
CHAD’S NOTES ON THE BRACKET
My 1 seeds in order, were Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma and Xavier. Oklahoma still has an incredibly impressive resume despite having lost 3 of 4 games before their win this weekend at West Virginia. Virginia was my top 2 seed, narrowly being edged out by Xavier — for now.
– I know Duke on the 2 line may seem high, especially after they lost at Louisville, but I challenge anyone to find a resume below the 2 line that is better, especially with the win at North Carolina.
– Cal swept their road trip to the Washington schools this weekend to fill in the biggest hole in their resume — a lack of road wins. With the Washington win being over a team that is at least on the Bubble, I think this resume is very solid now and that is why they are wearing white fairly comfortably on the 6 line.
– Texas Tech just continues to impress these past 2 weeks and has gone from being barely under consideration to solidly in on the 7 line.
– I could find little to distinguish the resumes of the top 3 American teams, UConn, Cincy and Temple. As a result, they all ended up on the 9 line together.
– Monmouth, Wichita State and St Mary’s are all in as auto-bid winners. They also were sandwiched in with my First Four teams. My exact order was Oregon State, Seton Hall, Monmouth, Wichita State, Michigan, St Mary’s and Tulsa. My other three 12 seeds all fell below the First Four (UALR, Hawaii and San Diego State).
– My TOP FOUR TEAMS OUT were, in order, Alabama, Gonzaga, St Bonaventure and Washington. My next four beyond them were George Washington, Florida State, Clemson and LSU. Florida State and LSU are currently both in nosedives and need a huge turnaround very quickly if they want to save their seasons.
– I do not set up any matchups on purpose and do not even see them until after the bracket is built. That being said, there are a few great ones in here including UConn-Providence and Indiana-Butler. Kansas also has a shot at playing Bucknell in the Round of 64, which may bring back a lot of bad memories for Jayhawks fans.
NOTES AND COMMENTS (John)
– I’ll start by answering Chad’s challenge – Michigan State and Miami both have a lot of wins against teams in the NCAA field, including wins against protected seeds. Michigan State’s early season win over Kansas is looming larger and larger. I know the U looked awful on Saturday, but they’re only a game out of first in the ACC; they have a chance to muddle the ACC race even further when they host Virginia tonight. Personally, I think the 2 line is Duke’s ceiling that they can achieve with the ACC Tournament championship.
– I’d personally flip-flop Dayton and Baylor after their respective weeks; Baylor did extremely well at Texas. Dayton looked very average against Saint Joe’s and St. Bonaventure. Average teams don’t belong this high on the 5-line.
– I know Chad is high on California after they finally won away from home, but I’d put Texas Tech above the Golden Bears simply because of their decisive win at Baylor over a week ago. It would have helped Cal more if Washington were in the NCAA field, but the Huskies have also regressed back to the mean.
– Initially, it jumped out to me to see Michigan in the First Four, but I have a sinking feeling that they’re going to not have Caris LeVert for the postseason. At best, he might be able to play – the Committee is going to have to consider how well the Wolverines play without LeVert on the floor. As for Tulsa, I’d wait and see if they can beat Temple before I consider putting them in the field.
– I’ll add one final comment as it relates to 3 American teams on the 9 line – is Chad finally valuing games “almost won” by each team? If so, Cincinnati needs to be a lot higher than what they are. I could MAYBE see one of those teams ending up this high if either one wins out the rest of the way, including the American Conference tournament in Orlando. But there is no way I can support this many teams that high up.
NOTES AND COMMENTS (David)
-Chad made a point to say that he doesn’t look for match-ups as he’s building the bracket. I’d like to submit this as further evidence that Chad is clearly no fun. I know the committee doesn’t do it either. Well, they’re no fun either. Now, I’m not in favor of moving seed lines to make things more fun, but if we can do it without moving seed lines, then why the hell not?? Swap Cincinnati and Temple!! They’re in the same conference for cryin’ out loud!! The potential Xavier v Cincinnati game in the Round of 32 makes me giddy. But, we won’t get it because Chad is no fun.
-Chad alluded to this in his notes, but Texas Tech has done more to improve their profile these past two weeks than perhaps any other team. I like them on the #7 line, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them rise higher than that before the season is over if they keep it up. As most of you who have followed us this season already know, I’d like to point out that I’ve been big on Texas Tech all along, and am glad that Chad is finally coming around!
-Monmouth may be one of the most schizophrenic teams of all time. I really don’t know what to make of them, and truth be told I’d probably end up putting them exactly where Chad has them, but a strong case could be made either way. After watching their last few games, I think it’s safe to say that if shot selection were a point of emphasis by the committee then Monmouth would not even make the NIT. But, it’s not. It’s about the value of your wins and losses. Their wins are very good. Their losses are very bad. VERY bad! I hate to see a team that did so much to play their way inside the bubble get knocked out of it because they lost so many games to bad teams down the stretch, but you can’t overlook the four really bad losses that Monmouth has. And, they’re lucky they didn’t pickup a fifth loss yesterday.
-On that note, I hate to say this being an Under the Radar guy (or…puppet, I guess), but I feel Chad has Chattanooga and Valpo exactly where they belong. Outside the bubble. Can they play their way back in before the season is over?? Unfortunately, no. How could they?? No one that they face between now and the end is an at-large caliber team, so their paper will either stay the same or get worse. They are both good teams. They both had good seasons. But, one of their wins better be that conference championship game or else the only way they’ll get to go to the NCAA Tournament is if they buy tickets.
-Finally, I like Cal a lot more than I did a week ago, but not on the #6 line. Good lord. They won at Wazzu. You know what is required to win on the road at Wazzu?? You need to show up to the game and be dressed on time. That’s really it. Hell, even if you show up late and can’t get onto the court until fifteen minutes after the game has tipped, you probably still have a good chance at winning.
-Chad has Maryland on the #4 line playing Stony Brook, and Arizona on the #12 line facing Saint Mary’s. I realize that Chad is looking at the paper there, and perhaps Saint Mary’s paper indicates they belong a head of Stony Brook after their big win (relatively speaking) at Gonzaga over the weekend. But, if I’m Maryland, I’m trying to negotiate a trade, there. As the better seeded team, they should get to swap opponents if they want to. I’d rather play Saint Mary’s than Stony Brook.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Feb 21st
NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between UAB and Middle Tennessee – CLICK HERE
-Texas A&M beat Kentucky in overtime in a rather bizarre manner. Kentucky came up with a big defensive stop toward the end of the game with a one point lead, where Kentucky’s Isaac Humphries was immediately fouled after coming up with the ball after the stop. The problem was that Humphries was so excited that he slammed the ball down on the ground in celebration. The referees assessed a technical foul, which was his fifth foul, AND which awarded TAMU two freethrows, AND which fouled him out so someone else had to shoot the freethrows for Kentucky. TAMU made both technical freethrows. Kentucky made one of two so the game was tied and TAMU had the ball. They scored at the buzzer after Kentucky appeared to have come up with another defensive stop, but the loose ball landed right under TAMU’s basket for a layup. On paper, the loss will help TAMU, but won’t hurt Kentucky too much.
-Oklahoma picked up another road win against a top ten team with a somewhat decisive 76-62 win at West Virginia. The game actually had a pivotal feel to it because if Oklahoma wins then it is a great win that demonstrates they are definitely a #1 seed, a loss would have been their fourth loss in their last five games.
-North Carolina blasted Miami FL yesterday. North Carolina winning wasn’t too shocking. North Carolina leading by over 30 in the second half was somewhat shocking.
-Dayton lost their second straight game when they fell at home to Saint Bonaventure. The Bonnies took a massive step back earlier in the week when they went to La Salle and lost, but they followed up an awful loss with a fantastic win yesterday. I think they’re on the bubble, but also think they’d be inside it had they just not lost to La Salle. It’s not always not winning big games that keeps teams out. It’s also not winning the small ones.
-Baylor got a huge road win at Texas in a game that they pretty much dominated. I had been big on Texas, so I think this is clearly Baylor’s most impressive win of the year.
-Pittsburgh got a much needed road win against a solid Syracuse team, which helps pull them out of a tailspin that they were in.
-Alabama suffered a surprising setback with a home loss to a Mississippi State team that doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to making any sort of postseason tournament. I wouldn’t say that Bama shot themselves in the face, but they probably did shoot themselves in the foot.
-Florida State has shot themselves in the face. They lost yet another game to a non tournament team when they fell to Virginia Tech.
-Chattanooga shot themselves in both the foot and the face yesterday. They didn’t just lose at home to UNC Greensboro, who isn’t any good even by SoCon standards. They were absolutely run off of their own home floor. I still think this Chattanooga team is potentially dangerous, but they’ll have to win the SoCon Tournament to make the NCAAs.
-LSU shot themselves in the foot. Again. They fell on the road to a Tennessee team that’s played well at home, but is still nowhere near the NCAA Tournament. LSU really wasn’t even competitive, as Tennessee won comfortably.
-Cincinnati got a much needed win over UConn yesterday. They’re squarely on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel to it.
-Saint Mary’s got a much needed road win at Gonzaga yesterday. I haven’t been that big on Saint Mary’s at any point this season, and I’m really still not, but now they at least have something on their profile that can be argued as a legitimate reason for consideration. They had less trouble winning at Gonzaga than they did winning at Pacific or at Portland.
-Hawaii got a big road win at UC Irvine to improve to 22-3 on the season. I know Irvine is not a tournament caliber team, but they are at least decent and Hawaii does deserve some credit for winning there. If the Bows win out, I think they’ll be in the discussion.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-SETON HALL AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Seton Hall should be in the field so long as they hold serve between now and the end, and that means avoiding losses to non tournament teams. The Johnnies are definitely in that category.
-LA SALLE AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). GW is outside of our bubble and a home loss to a weak team would be crushing.
-MICHIGAN AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Maryland is coming off a damaging loss to Minnesota, but they will still likely end up as a protected seed. Michigan appears to be solidly in the field for now, and a win today would really boost their profile and their seed.
-TULSA AT UCF (American). Tulsa’s margin for error is razor thin, but they still have a chance to play their way into the picture.
-MONMOUTH AT SAINT PETER’S (MAAC). Monmouth is probably right on the bubble, and it’s actually a tough case for the committee because they have a lot of really good wins, but also have some really bad losses. Nevertheless, they need to win out through the regular season.
-DETROIT AT VALPARAISO (Horizon League). Valpo will likely get a serious look if they win out, but even with that they’ll probably still need to win the conference tournament.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT SAN JOSE STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State should be on the bubble if they win out until the conference tournament. Anything short of that likely won’t be enough, and there’s no guarantee they get in without the automatic bid even if they do win out.
-WICHITA STATE AT INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley). I think Wichita is close to the bubble, but I still think they’ll be okay for a bid if they win out and avoid an early loss in the MVC Tourney.
-UTAH AT USC (Pac Twelve). Both teams are likely in the field on the initial ballot, and both are looking to add another notable win to their profiles.
-TEMPLE AT HOUSTON (American). Temple is right on the bubble, and although Houston is nowhere near it, this is still the kind of a road win that would look good for Temple.
-ILLINOIS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Wiscy has played their way inside the bubble, and they should remain there so long as they hold serve, which means avoiding home losses to non tournament teams.
-CALIFORNIA AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). Cal picked up a much needed road win against Washington earlier in the week. Road wins are the one thing that Cal is really lacking, so this win would really help them out even though Wazzu is terrible. At the very least, Cal needs to demonstrate that they can at least beat bad teams on the road.