Bracket Projections: March 2nd

Posted on March 2, 2015 by David Griggs

For today’s Under the Radar and highlighted games, CLICK HERE.

Below is my most recent Bracket Projections, which are my own projections and not the consensus of everyone here at Hoops HD.  Just below the bracket is Chad Sherwood’s commentary.  He will agree with some things, and everything he agrees with will be correct.  He will disagree with other things, which is fine, but everything he disagrees with will ultimately be incorrect.

-Bracket and Notes reflect all games played through March 1st.

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NOTES

-Xavier and BYU had to switch seed lines to accommodate the bracketing rule of BYU not playing on Sundays.

-Teams that were next in line are Texas A&M, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Texas, UCLA, Minnesota, Stanford, Old Dominion, UConn

 

CHAD’S NOTES ON DAVID’S BRACKET

– I know my job here is to rip David’s bracket apart but all in all, I think he did a pretty good job, especially at the top.  I cannot disagree with any of his top 8 seed lines (top 32 teams) as I would have all of them at least within one seed line of where he placed them.

– I do have several major disagreements with David once we get to the bottom half of the bracket, starting with his inclusion of Boise State on the 9 line.  I agree that they belong on the field after the huge win at San Diego State, but I do not see them as a single digit seed.  This team is still carrying too many bad losses, including that awful game at Fresno State, a home game against Utah State and a neutral court loss to Loyola-Chicago.

– I also do not understand David’s dislike for this Indiana profile.  He has them among the First Four, while I would probably have them on the 8 or 9 line (honestly, I would just flip them and Boise in the bracket and it would make sense to me).  Indiana only has one somewhat bad loss (this past week at Northwestern) offset by five top 50 wins (including a neutral court win over Butler) plus a road win over a bubble-caliber Illinois team and a home win over Minnesota which was also considered by David.  That profile is way better, in my opinion, than any team on David’s 10, 11 or 12 line.

– I also could not more strongly disagree with David’s inclusion of BYU as a 10 seed (moved down to 11 for bracketing purposes).  This is a case by David, and by the majority of the national media at the same time, of completely overvaluing a single win just because it happened in the past few days.  BYU still has way too many ugly warts on their resume, including three losses right around the RPI 150 line (twice to Pepperdine and at San Diego).  They have exactly one win against any team in the field and only one more win (and a home one to boot) against anyone under consideration (Stanford).  They only have one top 100 win away from home as well.  I can see the argument for BYU, and if they make it to the WCC finals and lose there to the Zags, I will make it for their inclusion as well, but they are not so far in as to avoid the First Four yet.  They really need a neutral court win over St. Mary’s in the WCC Semifinals to help their resume, which means they need to not only win their own quarterfinal, but root for the Gaels to knock off Portland.

– I also do not agree on the selection of Miami.  Just as with BYU, Miami really only has one win of note, albeit a huge one at Duke.  The bottom of their resume is even uglier than BYU’s with four sub-100 losses, two of which came at home.  They are also sitting on 11 losses overall, worse than BYU again.  The only thing they have slightly better than BYU is wins against bubble teams, with two of them (NC State and Illinois at home), rather than just one by the Cougars.  Needless to say, I do not feel the ‘canes are in right now.  The good news for Miami is they will have more chances than BYU to add to their resume, starting this week at Pittsburgh.

– Illinois is the first of two teams on David’s OUT list that I would have had in.  The Illini only have one bad loss (at Nebraska) while they have four wins against teams in the field or on the bubble.  Two of those wins are a home win over a protected seed (Maryland) and a huge neutral court win over a team that has a chance to start sniffing the 2 line (Baylor).  They also have a solid road win over Michigan State, who is closer to being a lock than being out.

– The other team that I would put in right now is a bit of a toss-up, but I would lean to the likes of Texas, Tulsa or UCLA.  All three profiles have tons of ugliness on them, but I believe that they are all better than Miami at the moment and perhaps better than BYU as well.  Texas does not have the bad losses, but just has too many of them.  Tulsa is lacking in quality wins and has a very ugly loss to a non-D1 team.  UCLA is also sitting on a ton of losses and a lack of road wins, though their win at Stanford does help.  I could even see BYU as the last team in — my bigger problem with David is how high he had them rated, not his inclusion of them.  In the end, I would probably go with Texas for now, though that will change when they likely lose to Baylor tonight.

– One other team that I think merits being Under Consideration that David did not even look at is Kansas State.  I have been outspoken for years now in my dislike for Bruce Weber, but I cannot ignore a resume with 7 top 50 wins, including a season sweep of Oklahoma and home wins over Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State.  That is 5 wins over protected seeds!  When you add in a home win over Oklahoma State, and neutral court wins over bubble teams Texas A&M and Purdue, you simply cannot overlook them.  I know that 15 losses, including 5 sub-100 losses is bad.  But when you go 5-6 against the top 25 including a true road win, you get my attention.  And honestly, if you are going to include BYU and Gonzaga based on one great win, how can you ignore Kansas State who has five of them?  The Wildcats have one regular season game left, at Texas on March 7.  If they win that and get at least one Big 12 tournament win, they may get in the field despite 16 losses!

– I do not have too many complaints about the single-bid conferences though I would have included Sacramento State instead of Eastern Washington in the Big Sky.  The Hornets are a game up in the conference standings and will likely be hosting the Big Sky tournament.  Eastern Washington has been falling apart the past few weeks.  Other than that, while I have some minor disagreements, I do not have any major ones.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday March 2, 2015: Grambling State at Mississippi Valley State

Posted on March 2, 2015 by Chad

Grambling State at Mississippi Valley State, 9:00 PM Eastern, No TV

Tonight is our last chance in the UTR Game of the Day to check in on the most coveted of awards that are given out here at HOOPS HD, the Centenary Award.  For those that are new to our site, this Award is given out by our staff here each year to the worst team in Division I.  The winner of the Award will by on our Mock Committee’s “Under Consideration” board throughout the selection process, even if the team is otherwise ineligible for postseason play.  Four teams have been locked in a battle for the award this season, though Central Arkansas’ home win this weekend over Southeastern Louisiana has cut that number down to three.  With San Jose State playing a much tougher SOS than the other two, in the end, it will probably come down to a choice between Florida A&M and Grambling.  FAMU does have one D1 win, and if they lose later this week at home to Savannah State will at least enter the clubhouse with a tough record to beat.

Despite FAMU’s woes, my personal current pick to win the award, for the second time in three years, is the Grambling State Tigers.  Grambling enters play tonight at 0-15 in SWAC play and 2-23 overall, though both those wins were over non-D1 foes.  They rank dead last in RPI and KenPom, though are only second to last, behind FAMU, in the BPI.  Grambling has done all of this against the #344 SOS, and enter play today ranked dead last at #351 if offensive efficiency and #349 in defensive efficiency.  The Tigers had rebounded somewhat last season from their 2013 Centenary Award, picking up four D1 wins.  However, the surprise (and, in my personal opinion, highly disappointing) firing of head coach Joseph Price and hiring of Shawn Walker late in the offseason clearly has not helped this program in its rebuild.  The best thing that the Tigers have going for them is that they have three regular season games plus a potential conference tournament game left this year, starting with tonight’s contest at Mississippi Valley State.  However, if they play the way they did in a loss last week at #321 Jackson State (72-33!!), they will not have much of a chance in any of those games.

Tonight’s opponent for Grambling is the Mississippi Valley State Delts Devils.  MVSU enters the game at 4-12 in conference and 5-24 overall.  Their RPI is 343, BPI is 348 and KenPom is 346.  The Delta Devils are currently tied with Alcorn State for 8th place and look to be headed to a first round play-in game in the SWAC tournament.  MVSU was also the team that came closest to losing to Grambling all so far this season, winning 68-65 at Grambling back on February 2.  The Delta Devils have lost 6 out of 7 games since that contest and need to pick up a victory tonight in order to try to begin turning things around as they approach the SWAC tournament.  They also do not want to be the team that lost to Grambling this year, no matter how tough of a season they have had.

 

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VIRGINIA AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Virginia is still gunning for the #1 line and an out right first place finish in the ACC.  This would be a big resume game for Syracuse if only they were eligible for the postseason.

-BAYLOR AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  It’s a conference game.  It’s a rivalry game.  It’s a game that Texas simply must win if they want to get on the right side of the bubble.  They are just 6-10 in league play, and if they fall to 6-11 they would end the season no less than four games under .500, and there has only been one team in history to get a bid that was that far below .500 in league play.  Baylor, on the other hand, is playing very well right now and should come into this one with a purpose.

-OKLAHOMA AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve).  Like so many Big Twelve games, it’s a game between two teams that appear to be protected seeds and are looking for a chance to add another good win to their profile.  Only one game separates them in the standings, so if Iowa State wins they’re tied.

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Highlighted Games for Sunday, March 1

Posted on March 1, 2015 by David Griggs

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!!

-For our most recent NCAA Tournament Survival Board Update – CLICK HERE

– For all of your Conference Tournament Brackets – CLICK HERE

-SMU AT UCONN (American).  SMU is very safe at this point, and this is a chance for them to add another notable road win to their profile.  UConn is way outside the bubble, but if they win out to the AAC final they may at least get a look.

-IONA AT SAINT PETER’S (Metro Atlantic).  This is Chad’s UTR Game of the Day.  CLICK HERE TO READ ABOUT IT.

-MARQUETTE AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Providence is looking like a first ballot team and should be fine if they hold serve.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Wisconsin looks like they’ll be a #2 seed at best, and Michigan State is near the bubble, still looks to be safely inside.  If they can pull off a big upset like this they’ll obviously be a lot more safe.

-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Pitt can still get in, but they need a very strong finish which needs to include some notable wins.

-OREGON AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve).  I think both are squarely on the bubble.  The biggest hole in Oregon’s profile is road wins, and picking one up against another bubble team will help them out a ton.

-PURDUE AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Purdue has been playing well lately, and if pick up this win on the road I think it puts them inside the bubble.  Ohio State’s profile could use some improvement as well.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  UCLA is right on the bubble and cannot afford a home loss to a weak Wazzu team.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, March 1, 2015: Iona at St. Peter’s

Posted on March 1, 2015 by Chad

Iona at St. Peter’s, 2:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Welcome to March.  For a college basketball fan, there is no greater month in the calendar year.  On Tuesday, the 13 day event known as Championship Week begins, with almost every single team having a chance to make a magical run at an NCAA tournament bid.  Exactly two weeks from today, the Selection Committee will announce the field, the office pools will begin, and the entire country will join us in talking nothing but college basketball.  But before all of that starts, we have two days of nothing but regular season games left to go.  Two days that are truly the calm before the storm.

This afternoon, regular season play will be completed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.  While most of the key seeding battles (especially those for the #1 spot and those for the byes past the first round) are already decided, a full slate of five games will set the final bracket by the end of the day.  Today’s UTR Game of the Day is the final regular season contest for the top team in the conference, the Iona Gaels, as they travel to Jersey City, NJ to take on the St. Peter’s Peacocks.  Iona enters today’s game with a record of 17-2 in conference and 24-6 overall.  They have a very respectable 46 RPI rating, though their BPI is at 88 and their KenPom is 91.  While the Gaels have been winning a lot of games lately, entering play today on an 11 game wining streak, three sub-150 losses combined with no top 100 wins means that they will need to win the MAAC tournament next weekend in order to advance to the NCAAs.

St. Peter’s enters play today at 7-12 in conference and 13-17 overall.  The Peacocks can finish anywhere between the 7 seed and the 9 seed based on today’s results.  However, they are locked into having to play one of the three opening round games Thursday in Albany.  Should the Peacocks end up in the 8 or 9 seed spot, they could very well be Iona’s quarterfinal opponent, making today’s game a potential preview of that one.  While playing the same team twice within a week may not be that easy for the Gaels, odds are that they would be thrilled to see St. Peter’s as their opponent.  The reason for this is that one of the teams currently in the running for the 8 seed is the conference tournament’s host, Siena.  Should St. Peter’s upset Iona today, Siena will be the 8 seed.  If St. Peter’s loses and Siena wins at Monmouth (4:30 PM, espn3), the Saints will jump up to the 7 seed and be on the other side of the bracket.  For these reasons, Iona not only needs to win today, but will be rooting for the Saints later this afternoon.  If things do not fall the right way though, the Gaels may find themselves with a true road game in their very first conference tournament game this season.  To that, all we can say is shame on the MAAC for not giving its top seed more protection.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 28th (**Survival Board Update**)

Posted on February 28, 2015 by David Griggs

SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE

5 possible eliminations today:

Sun Belt — Troy is out if they lose at home to Georgia State
Big West — CS-Fullerton is out if they lose at Long Beach AND CS-Northridge wins at home over UC-Riverside
Big Sky — Idaho State, Montana State and North Dakota are all eliminated if Weber State wins at home over Idaho State.  Montana State (at Idaho) and North Dakota (home to Southern Utah) will also be eliminated if they lose, regardless of what Weber does.

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE SURVIVAL BOARD

 

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

TODAY’S HIGLIGHTED GAMES

-SARAH LAWRENCE (nondiv1) AT NJIT.  The team of the people is playing their last home game of the season.  I feel they’ve done enough to warrant a bid to the CIT.  Hopefully the selection committee feels that way as well.  Help support the campaign!!  Tweet @collegeinsider and tell them you want the Team of the People in the CIT!!  #NJITtoCIT

-NC STATE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  NC State is right on the bubble so every game has a pivotal feel to it.  They’re coming off a huge win over rival UNC, so they should have a lot of momentum going into this one.

-LOUISVILLE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  It’ll be interesting to see what Louisville can do on the road against a team that’s formidable at home now that they’re not at full strength.  The committee will be watching this one closely.

-GEORGETOWN AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East).  I think both teams are in the field with Georgetown being in better shape, but the Johnnies have been playing well lately.

-MICHIGAN AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Maryland has been playing really well lately, especially at home, and should end up as a protected seed so long as they continue to win the games they’re supposed to win.

-MISSOURI AT GEORGIA (SEC).  Georgia has some really good wins, but has been inconsistent.  It’s important that they avoid bad losses if they want to feel completely safe.

-RHODE ISLAND AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten).  Rhody has an outside shot at best, but in order for them to cash it in they pretty much need to win out.

-TCU AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma appears to be a protected seed that could end up as high as the #3 line.

-NORTHERN IOWA AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley).  It has been a long time since the MVC had two teams this high in the rankings that faced off against each other.  We all feel that Northern Iowa is a protected seed and that they belong as high as the #3 line.  If they can win at Wichita State, who is very tough to beat at home, they will probably solidify their case for a #3 seed, and continue to climb the rankings into the top ten.

-CINCINNATI AT TULANE (American).  Cincinnati has not played well lately, but they did get a win in their last game against Houston.  They simply cannot afford to lose to sub NIT teams if they want to prove to the committee that they’re an NCAA team, even if they are on the road.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Both teams are coming into this really needing a win.  North Carolina hasn’t had a good win in awhile, and Miami has been wildly inconsistent and is currently right on the bubble.

-BUTLER AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Butler hasn’t played nearly as well since the injury.  They’re in no danger of missing the tournament, but their profile could take a huge hit if they’re unable to hold serve.

-VILLANOVA AT XAVIER (Big East).  Nova is in the hunt for a #1 seed, and this is the kind of game they’ll have to win in order to get up there.  Xavier is inside the bubble and tough to beat at home.  They’re probably safe, but if they can pull off the upset at home they’ll be breathing a lot easier.

-DAYTON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  Despite coming off a tough loss to rival Richmond, VCU has been playing better.  Dayton has a lot of okay wins, but no really strong wins.  If they’re able to pull this off it will give their profile a really big boost and have them breathing a little more easily.

-OLE MISS AT LSU (SEC).  I think both teams are inside the bubble, and despite coming off a loss Ole Miss has been playing really well, sot it’s just a matchup between two tournament caliber teams looking for another quality win.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  Okie State could still end up as a protected seed.  They’ve got a lot of good wins on their profile.  This is one of the more winnable road games they have remaining, so they need to take advantage of it.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve).  Both of these teams have been playing really well lately and should be in great shape as far as seeding goes.  West Virginia could probably use this more than Baylor, but both have been playing really well.

-IOWA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Iowa State is hovering around the #3 line, and as good as their profile is, they could use another true road win.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Virginia Tech is having a rough year, but they have gone down to the wire with two top five teams this year.  Unfortunately both were at home, so although the first meeting between these two was close I wouldn’t be surprised if this one was not.  UVA, despite injuries, continues to win and should end up on the #1 line if they hold serve.

-WOFFORD AT FURMAN (Southern).  Wofford has a shot at the bubble, but only if they win out.

-ALABAMA AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Bama has had several close losses, and as a result probably can’t end up inside the bubble unless they go on a huge winning streak.  Winning at Vandy is a decent win, but is far from enough in and of itself.

-ARKANSAS AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky is on pace to get the overall #1 seed, and could still end up with it even if they drop a game.  We think Arkansas is on the brink of being a protected seed.  If they pull this off, they will no longer be on the brink.  They’ll pretty much have it.  It’s Arkansas fast pace offense going up against Kentucky’s unbelievably tough defense, so it should be fun.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  Texas is a decent team that is constantly overmatched and just can’t seem to get any wins.  Going to Kansas probably isn’t going to help them any.  If they were to get a win, they’d go from right on the bubble to feeling a whole lot safer, but it’s much easier said than done.

-OLD DOMINION AT NORTH TEXAS (Conference USA).  Old Dominion has lost several conference games to non-tournament caliber teams and I don’t think they can get inside the bubble, but they still have some good things on their profile and may get a look.

-IOWA AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Iowa has been up and down, but has won their last three and is in relatively good shape.  This is a winnable conference road game for them, which would get them to 10-6 in the league.

-SYRACUSE AT DUKE (ACC).  Syracuse is coming off the big win against Notre Dame, but it’s all for not since they have the postseason ban.  Duke is on pace to get a #1 seed and should stay that way so long as they take care of business at home.

-HARVARD AT COLUMBIA (Ivy League).  It’s now a two horse race between Harvard and Yale.  Harvard is coming off a tough loss and simply cannot afford another.

-PENN AT YALE (Ivy League).  Same with Harvard, Yale cannot afford to lose.

-NORTHWESTERN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  Illinois is right on the bubble so every game has a pivotal feel.  A win won’t help them too much, but a loss to a non tournament team at home would really hurt.  The fact that it’s a rivalry game would be a lot of salt in the wound as well.

-TULSA AT MEMPHIS (American).  Tulsa is on the bubble and needs to beat NIT caliber teams on the road in order to end up inside of it.

-UTEP AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA).  UTEP has an outside shot at best, but they still have a shot.  If they fall on the road to a very weak Southern Miss team that shot is gone, though.

-BOISE STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  Boise is squarely on the bubble and this is the kind of road win that could put them on the right side of it.  San Diego State has had a good year and is likely a first ballot team.

-AUBURN AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  TAMU is one of the many bubble teams.  Unfortunately for them a win won’t help much, and a loss might kill them.

-ARIZONA AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  This is a showcase game between two highly ranked teams, and a chance for both of them to pick up a huge win.  For Arizona, it would probably be their most impressive of the season, and will solidify them on at least the #2 line if they hold serve after this.

-BYU AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  People are saying BYU can get back on the bubble if they win this game.  I agree, but I don’t think they have what it takes to get it done at Gonzaga.  We shall see, though.

 

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Under the Radar Games of the Day: Saturday, February 28, 2015: Lehigh at Colgate and Bucknell at American

Posted on February 28, 2015 by Chad

Lehigh at Colgate, 12:00 PM Eastern, CBS Sports Network

Bucknell at American, 12:00 PM Eastern, free streaming at patriotleague.org

Twelve Under the Radar conferences play their final regular season games today.*  The regular season title and top seed in the conference tournament for several of them is still up for grabs, as is seeding, byes and double byes, and more. On top of that, there is a whole host of important games among conferences that do not complete their regular seasons until next week.  This makes choosing an Under the Radar Game of the Day extremely difficult, but in the end the battle for the top seed in the Patriot League, which plays its conference tournament at campus sites, is perhaps the most interesting and intriguing of today’s matchups.  Of course, to fully look at this battle, we had to select a pair of games today.

Bucknell enters play today with a record of 12-5 in conference and 17-13 overall.  The Bison hold a one game lead in the standings over Colgate, who sits at 11-4 conference and 14-16 overall.  However, the Red Raiders swept the season series, meaning that if the two end up tied, Colgate will capture the top seed and home court advantage throughout the conference tournament.  Amazingly, Colgate has a chance to be the #1 seed in the Patriot League tournament despite having a losing record overall!!!  Colgate hosts Lehigh (10-7, 16-12) at Noon Eastern today while Bucknell will be traveling to American (8-9, 15-14).  With the parity throughout the Patriot League, both of these games could go either way today, and both Colgate and Bucknell will be busy not only trying to win their own contest, but also keeping one eye on the scoreboard.  Somewhat luckily for both teams, neither of their opponents has nearly as much at stake today.  Lehigh is already locked into the #3 seed no matter what happens.  American is tied for fifth place, but cannot move up any higher than the 5 seed, meaning they will start the conference tournament on the road no matter what.  Despite having less at stake, both Lehigh and American clearly want the victories, and both games should be exciting contests.

 

*While the Summit League is one of these twelve conferences, Omaha (ineligible for the conference tournament) does have a non-conference game left this week at North Dakota.

 

 

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