For our latest Bracket Rundown podcast, CLICK HERE.
Valparaiso at Cleveland State, 10:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU
Four days from now, the first conference tournament games will tip-off beginning the longest and most exciting week of the college basketball season, the 13 days known as Championship Week. Over the next three days, 13 conferences will be concluding their regular seasons and releasing the brackets for their conference tournaments. In the Horizon League, a conference that in our opinion does things right by giving home court advantage and a double bye to its regular season champion, a ton of questions regarding their bracket will be answered tonight and tomorrow. This is because three teams still have a shot at the top seed, and a fourth can at least tie for the regular season title and get the double bye that comes with the #2 seed. Due to the conference schedule falling exactly right, these four teams will be playing each other over these next two days. Tomorrow afternoon, Oakland is at Green Bay (2:00 PM, espn3) in a game that will give the winner a shot at getting the #2 seed, and for Oakland at least could even lift them to the #1 spot, amazingly enough for a team that has not been in serious title contention in the Horizon until this past week. Tonight, with a late night tip time in Cleveland, Valpo and Cleveland State will battle to each put their claims in for the #1 seed as well.
The easiest path to the top seed belongs to the Valparaiso Crusaders, who lost a chance to clinch it outright earlier this week when they got upset at Detroit. Valpo is a full game up on the other three teams in the league standings, sitting at 12-3 in conference and 25-5 overall. This means that winning tonight’s game will lock the Crusaders into the top spot and give them home court advantage throughout the Horizon League tournament. To do so, Valpo will need to get Trevonn Walker back on track. After scoring 20 points against Green Bay and 12 against Milwaukee two weeks ago, the past week has seen him score a total of 5 points in two games, including being held scoreless in a win over Wright State. Another performance like these past two will not be enough if the Crusaders want to knock off Cleveland State in what should be a raucous, crazy atmosphere at the Wolstein Center tonight.
Cleveland State (11-4 in conference, 17-12 overall) has a excellent chance to be the #1 seed if they win tonight, but it is not guaranteed. If CSU wins tonight and Green Bay wins tomorrow afternoon, the Vikings will be in the top spot and hosting the conference tournament. However, if Oakland pulls off the upset in Green Bay tomorrow, the tiebreaker between the two teams would go the their RPI rankings, which are right now only 16 points apart (with Cleveland State leading). Given that Oakland’s win will be a road win, which receives more credit in the RPI than a home victory, and they would have both defeated top 100 programs, that gap will be narrowed down to almost nothing. Odds are that Cleveland State will end up ahead of Oakland, but do not be shocked if it turns out that the Golden Grizzlies capture the top spot. Regardless of the RPI rankings, CSU’s first order of business will be to win tonight, and to do so they will need a much better effort from Trey Lewis than he gave in the first meeting between these teams, when Valpo held him to 5 points and 1 rebound. For a player that lit up Green Bay for 25 points and 12 boards back in January, a lot more will be needed if the Vikings want to win the conference regular season title. If he and his teammates come through, this could be one of the most exciting and fun games we have seen all season among the Under the Radar teams, and CSU fans may be able to start making plans for a home semifinal game next Saturday night as well.
Highlighted Games for Thursday, Feb 26th
NEWS AND NOTES
–For our most recent, and what will be our final Under the Radar Video Podcast of the season – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-We will be recording our Bracket Rundown Video Podcast tonight, where we go through and banter about all the teams as we hammer out a seed list. It will be posted either later tonight or early tomorrow morning so be sure to check it out.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-HOUSTON AT TEMPLE (American). Temple appears to be in relatively good shape, but that will change quickly if they pull a UConn and lose to Houston.
-WOFFORD AT MERCER (Southern). I don’t think Wofford will have enough to end up inside the bubble if they fall in the conference tournament, but they should at least be in the discussion. It will require nothing short of winning out, and they’ll likely come up short even then.
-COASTAL CAROLINA AT PRESBYTERIAN (Big South). Coastal is just one game out of first place and still has a chance to clinch home court advantage in the……..oh, nevermind. For more on that check out our Under the Radar Podcast.
-MINNESOTA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). I don’t see Minney as being near the bubble right now, but a strong finish will get them there. Granted, they’ve shown very little to make us believe they have the ability to finish strong. Michigan State has had a rough year, but is really playing well lately.
-NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). It’s a good thing Nebraska is on the road this week because they’re presumably able to use the visiting locker room. Head Coach Tim Miles locked them out of their locker room at home. Ohio State has been tough to beat at home and has a solid profile that shouldn’t change so long as they hold serve.
-UTEP AT LOUISIANA TECH (Conference USA). I am perplexed as to how this is not the UTR Game of the Day. Chad doesn’t get many things right, but he normally gets the UTR Game of the Day right, but today he didn’t even get that right!! UTEP has won seven in a row and is finally starting to look like the team we’d thought they’d be. The question is whether or not they can get their resume to a point to where the committee will consider it because most of those wins have been against weak teams. LA Tech is unbeaten at home, and this would be the kind of quality win that would jump out at the committee despite LA Tech’s low RPI.
-SMU AT MEMPHIS (American). This SMU team is rolling and should be a first ballot NCAA Tournament team. This is a chance for them to polish up the profile even more by getting another notable road win.
-ARIZONA AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). Arizona appears to be a solid #2 seed, so this is the kind of road game they’ve been winning and that you’d expect them to continue to win.
-RUTGERS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Purdue is really hot right now, and has been playing especially well at home. Rutgers is dealing with some issues, particularly the issue of not being good, so Purdue cannot afford to slip up against them.
-BYU AT PORTLAND (West Coast). UTR Game of the Day. See above.
-ARIZONA STATE AT UTAH (Pac Twelve). Utah has been outstanding at home this year and should easily end up as a protected seed. We love watching Arizona State play, but not so much as the road team. They won’t be bringing the Curtain of Distraction with them.
-SAN DIEGO AT GONZAGA (West Coast). This, like many Gonzaga conference home games, is a conference game that will likely feel like a buy game.
-OREGON STATE AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Stanford is outside the bubble and basically needs to finish strong if they want to end up in the safe zone.