Bracket Projections: February 20th

Posted on February 20, 2015 by David Griggs

Bracket was updated s on Monday, February 20th at 1:05am, est

CLICK HERE to watch the Video Podcast where Chad and David are joined by Warren Nolan as they build the seed list and discuss each team

 

BRACKET NOTES

-So, the debate started right away with the #1 line.  Villanova has the type of profile that would earn them a #1 seed in almost any other season, and could end up earning them one this season.  On paper, they look better than Gonzaga.  David still feels that Gonzaga is the better team despite the paper, but could not convince Chad and Warren otherwise, so we have Villanova up on the #1 line this week.

-Bracketing rules can really stink sometimes, and in this case they stink for Villanova.  Their reward for being the fourth #1 seed is that they get shipped out west.  Had they been the first #2 seed, chances are they would have gotten to stay in the east.  Is this perhaps another reason that Gonzaga may end up with a #1??  Would we sacrifice technicalities for practicalities??  This is the NCAA, so probably not.

-Utah was another team that there was dispute over.  Warren liked them a lot, Chad liked them a little, and David didn’t like them much at all when compared to the other protected seeds.  They ended up on the #4 line, and actually earned one of their better road wins last night at Oregon State.  The Beavers are not a tournament team, but they were unbeaten at home, so Utah deserves a lot of credit for that win.

-Northern Iowa is a team that all three believe is better than their paper indicates, but the problem is….the paper doesn’t indicate it.  They may have a #3 seed caliber team, but they have perhaps a #5 seed caliber profile.  They ended up as being #13th overall, which makes them the top #4 seed.

-Cincinnati has lost three games in a row, including a recent home loss to Xavier and two others to teams that probably won’t make the field.  Cincinnati still ended up higher on the seed list, largely because of Xavier’s sub 100 losses.  David didn’t agree, but was outvoted.  Again.

-On the other end of the bracket, Texas A&M, UCLA, Stanford, Boise State and Tulsa were also seriously discussed, but ultimately not included in the field.  TAMU probably has the strongest case out of all of them, and as we talked about on the show (linked above) their case is that they really don’t have a weak case.

As for teams that just made it inside the bubble, Davidson was the last team in.  They had a big road win at George Washington, who isn’t great, but is still tough to beat at home, and is one of the better things on Davidson’s profile.

-The teams from one big leagues were not covered in the podcast.  If you’d like to see an analysis on them you can watch our most recent Under the Radar Video Podcast by – CLICKING HERE

-(Note from Chad) On the bracketing side, the two amazing 8/9 games between Ohio State and Cincinnati and Dayton and Xavier were not a setup at all.  Texas and Iowa were the top two 9 seeds and as such went to their nearer regional sites (Louisville and Pittsburgh).  This left both 9 seeded Ohio teams in Charlotte where Ohio State and Dayton were already waiting.   Those games clearly look like a setup, but as you can see during the podcast, I did not put them on the 9 line even realizing these games were possible, and they landed in place but strict application of the bracketing rules.  If I was going to misapply the rules for more intriguing matchups, I would have also swapped Iona and Murray State to give us a Louisville-Murray game.  I did not do so.

 

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 12.02.13 AM

Screen Shot 2015-02-20 at 12.02.30 AM

Posted in Bracketology, Commentary, News and Notes, Podcasts, Under the Radar, Videocasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Bracket Projections: February 20th

Under the Radar Game of the Day – Friday, February 20, 2015: Cleveland State at Green Bay

Posted on February 20, 2015 by Chad

For our latest Bracket Rundown, CLICK HERE.

Cleveland State at Green Bay, 7:00 PM Eastern, ESPN2

The Cleveland State Vikings.  All season (especially for those that follow our forums as well), I have been calling them a pretender to the Horizon League crown.  While acknowledging the battle for the top spot in the conference between Valparaiso and Green Bay, I have called Cleveland State’s spot (currently tied with Green Bay for second place, one game behind Valpo) at the top of the standings pretty much a fraud.  Tonight is the night for the Vikings to prove me wrong.  Head coach Gary Waters will be bringing his team to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Phoenix and put themselves in prime contention for at least the double bye in the Horizon League tournament that comes with the 2 seed, if not the home court advantage that comes with the #1 spot.

Cleveland State enters tonight’s game at 10-3 in conference and 16-11 overall.  Their RPI, BPI and KenPom ratings are all in the triple digits, well behind Valpo and Green Bay.  The Vikings went only 4-8 against Division I competition in non-conference play including horrible losses to Savannah State and Eastern Illinois.  However, they have been solid in league play including a home win over Green Bay.  The season sweep of the Phoenix tonight will give the Vikings the tiebreaker edge against them as we enter the final week of the conference regular season (which will conclude with a home game next weekend against Valpo).  CSU has been led so far this season by Anton Grady, who scored 24 points in the earlier win over Green Bay, and Trey Lewis who has been in double-digits the majority of the time this season, including a 25 point effort in the Green Bay win.

The Green Bay Phoenix enter tonight’s game at 10-3 in conference and 21-6 overall.  Their RPI (43), BPI (65) and KenPom (62) are all tops in the conference.  Their solid season so far has included wins over Florida Gulf Coast, Evansville, Georgia State and a huge road win at Miami.  Unfortunately, a couple of slip-ups in conference, including a loss at Oakland, have probably killed any chance for an at-large bid.  Failing to win the conference regular season title will also significantly hurt those chances, and the Phoenix no longer control their own destiny there with Valpo a game ahead of them and no head-to-head contests left.  Right now, the Phoenix need to be more concerned about at least finishing in second place, which will give them the double bye to the conference tournament semifinals and a chance to host the championship game should Valparaiso falter in the other half of the bracket.  In order to get there, a win over the Vikings at home tonight is an absolute necessity.

Posted in News and Notes, Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Under the Radar Game of the Day – Friday, February 20, 2015: Cleveland State at Green Bay

Bracket Rundown: February 20th

Posted on February 20, 2015 by David Griggs

Chad and David are once again joined by Warren Nolan, who is the publisher of WarrenNolan.com.  The three of them build the seed list line by line and tell you what teams they think would be in the NCAA Tournament, and where they would be seeded, if the season ended today.  As always, there is banter, arguments, and disagreements as they try to come to a consensus.

 

CLICK HERE to view the final bracket.

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

Posted in Bracketology, Commentary, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

News, Notes and Highlighted Games for Thursday, Feb 19th

Posted on February 19, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS NOTES AND LINKS

-We will be recording our Bracket Rundown Video Podcast this evening.  We will once again be joined by Warren Nolan as he helps us put together the seed list and build our latest bracket, so be sure and check that out.

–For our latest Under the Radar Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Last, and DEFINITELY not least…if you haven’t seen it yet, you need to see it.  To say it is the greatest thing in the history of the Pac Twelve doesn’t come close to doing it justice.  That’s like saying the surf was high the day the tsunami hit.  This is, without question, the greatest thing in the world’s entire history of sports fandom!  It is the Curtain of Distraction!!!  If you haven’t seen it, then you absolutely must click the link!  Arizona State’s student section is the first student section in the history of college basketball that has literally changed how the game is broadcast.  Now, when opposing teams shoot freethrows, the networks show a wide shot so we can see the Curtain of Distraction – CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST AMAZING VIDEO EVER!!

 

TONIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SOUTHERN MISS AT OLD DOMINION (Conference USA).  I think we’re pretty much done with Old Dominion.  They’re three games behind conference leader Louisiana Tech.  We highlight this game simply to point that out.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton is in good shape and will stay that way so long as they avoid doing things like losing at home to non tournament teams.

-TEMPLE AT SMU (American).  Good match up here between two teams that appear to be in good shape as far as the NCAA Tournament goes.  Temple could use this more than SMU, but losing this game won’t really hurt the Owls.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT CHARLOTTE (Conference USA).  If LA Tech wins out, they may get somewhat of a look from the committee, but only slightly.  Anything short of that and they pretty much have no chance at all.

-PURDUE AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  This is a hugely important game.  It’s a rivalry game between two teams who could really use the win.  Indiana was blown out of the place when they visited Purdue earlier this year.  Purdue is outside the bubble, but could REALLY get the attention of the selection committee if they’re able to pull off this road win.  This should be fun.  It’s been awhile since this game was important on paper to both teams.

-NEBRASKA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Indiana v Purdue isn’t the only big time Big Ten rivalry this week!!  Nebraska and Maryland!!  Two conference foes that go all the way back to……November 2014.  Ahh, nevermind.  Maryland is inside the bubble and could end up as a protected seed.  Like we always say, they need to avoid home losses to non tournament teams.

-RUTGERS AT IOWA (Big Ten).  The heat just keeps getting hotter!!  Tonight we feature a THIRD in the series big bitter Big Ten rivalry games as Rutgers visits Iowa!!  You know it’s Rivalry Week when Rutgers is at Iowa!!  Iowa is going in the wrong direction and needs to avoid losing at home to a pitiful Rutgers team tonight.

-EASTERN KENTUCKY AT BELMONT (Ohio Valley).  Neither team is inside the bubble, but both are in a fight for first place in their division, which means a bye to the semifinals of the conference tournament, so this one is important tonight.

-UCONN AT MEMPHIS (American).  We highlight this game only to mention how truly disappointed we are in both of these teams.

-USC AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve).  This is a conference game that may end up looking like a buy game.

-OLE MISS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Ole Miss has really been playing well, and Mississippi State has…well…not been playing well.  Still, it’s not a walk in the park when you’re the road team in a rivalry game, and it’s a loss that Ole Miss’s profile could really do without.

-UC DAVIS AT LONG BEACH STATE (Big West).  Folks, there is no good reason in the world this should not have been Chad Sherwood’s pick for the UTR Game of the Day.  It features UC Davis, who is one of the great storylines in all of college basketball and one of the most improved programs in all of div1, taking on Long Beach on the road.  Davis is getting closer and closer to an outright first place finish, which would guarantee them a spot in the NIT, and hopefully put them in a good position to win the conference tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it.

-GONZAGA AT PACIFIC (West Coast).  Gonzaga should end up getting the #1 seed if they win out, but if they lose any time between now and the end of the season I don’t think they have any real chance.

-UTAH AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  Oregon State isn’t a tournament team, but they’re much improved and aren’t the easiest team in the world to beat on the road.  Utah is in good shape, but this won’t be a walk in the park.

Posted in Bracketology, Daily Rundown, News and Notes, Podcasts, Under the Radar, Videocasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on News, Notes and Highlighted Games for Thursday, Feb 19th

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Thursday, February 19, 2015: New Mexico State at Utah Valley

Posted on February 19, 2015 by Chad

For our latest Under the Radar podcast, CLICK HERE.

New Mexico State at Utah Valley, 9:00 PM Eastern, UVU-TV/free streaming at wacsports.com

Rivalry Week.  Perhaps it is nothing more than an invention by ESPN to further drum up the excitement surrounding the first of each year’s two North Carolina-Duke games.  But there are, even after realignment, quite a few very good rivalries still out there, especially among the UTR conferences (check out last night’s podcast for a discussion of some of the top ones).  But how does a rivalry form?  I for one would argue that there are four factors that can help build one.  First, geographic location is very important (see Duke-UNC), but not always required (see Gonzaga-St. Mary’s).  Second, being inn the same conference is always important, but also not required (see Xavier-Cincinnati or Kentucky-Louisville).  Third, both teams being good at the same time is pretty much a necessity.  For example, Duke vs North Carolina does not have even near the same intensity in football as it does in basketball, mostly because neither team has a hstory of being a national powerhouse in football, and Duke has never had much national relevance in football.  The final factor is the “X factor.”  It is a precipitating event that may occur, such as the Xavier-Cincinnati brawl, that pushes the intensity of the games up a notch above everything else.

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day is not a rivalry match, though it could be one.  New Mexico State and Utah Valley are not exactly close geographically, at least not within an easy drive for each team’s fans to come to the road games.  They are in the same conference together, though this is only the second season they have been so.  While they were the top two teams in the WAC last season, UVU has slipped this season (sixth place entering tonight’s game) and the teams will probably need to battle each other for the top spot in the WAC for quite a few more years if they want to meet the third factor.  However, the fourth factor, the “X Factor” may already be in place.  It happened last season when the Aggies visited Orem, Utah.  K.C. Ross-Miller (who plays now for Bruce Pearl at Auburn), upon seeing that his Aggies had just lost, giving UVU one of their biggest home wins in school history, took the basketball and threw it hard right at Utah Valley’s Holton Hunsaker.  A fight erupted between the teams as the court was stormed, causing fans to get involved as well.  You can watch it in all its ugliness right here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDuOZFCPVdg

 

The fight, while a very nasty incident, was enough for us to believe we had the makings of a new rivalry in the WAC.  Utah Valley got upset in the WAC tournament denying us a rematch of the two teams last season.  They did meet this year at New Mexico State back on January 24, with the Aggies cruising to a 25 point victory.  However, tonight’s game, back at the “scene of the crime,” is the true rematch from last season’s game.  While Ross-Miller transferred and Hunsaker graduated, it is still a huge game tonight.  The Aggies are in first place in the WAC and trying to get the top seed in the conference tournament.  The Wolverines’ fans proved last season that they can bring an electric atmosphere to Orem, Utah.  Hopefully they turn out tonight and help us build a rivalry so that, 10 or 15 years from now, we can look at this matchup and state that it truly does belong in Rivalry Week.

Posted in News and Notes, Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Under the Radar: February 18th

Posted on February 19, 2015 by David Griggs

Chad and David are back for the Rivalry Week edition of Under the Radar.  On this episode, they look at what they think are some of the best rivalries from outside the power conferences.  As always, they run through all 23 UTR conferences, reveal their Top Ten, and look at this week’s upcoming games.

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

Posted in Podcasts, Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments