Highlighted Games for Wednesday, February 18th

Posted on February 18, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-We will be recording our Under the Radar Video Podcast tonight, so be on the lookout for that.

 

TONIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-EAST CAROLINA AT TULSA (American).  Tulsa is outside the bubble and needs to put together a string of wins down the stretch just to get into the discussion.

-XAVIER AT CINCINNATI.  This is an out of conference game that is helping fill out ESPN’s Rivalry Week.  Both teams appear to be inside the bubble, but neither are entirely safe, so in addition to being a rivalry, this game means just as much on paper as it does off paper.   Both are also coming off losses, so a win in a rivalry game could really give either team some momentum.

-LOUISVILLE AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Louisville will be without Chris Jones, and although depth is an issue for the Cardinals, playing well is oftentimes an issue for the Orange.  Louisville is still looking like they’ll end up with a protected seed.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Miami is right on the bubble and simply cannot afford to lose to a weak team at home.

-DAVIDSON AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten).  Both teams are on the outside looking in right now, and need to string together some wins just to get themselves into the discussion.

-WISCONSIN AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Wisky continues to look better and better as the season goes on.  If the season were to end now they’d be seriously considered for a #1 seed.

-UMASS AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten).  It’s Bubble Night in the Atlantic Ten as we have two more teams on the outside looking in, but should have a chance if they’re able to put together a strong run down the stretch.

-NORTHERN IOWA AT LOYOLA IL (Missouri Valley).  I think UNI is good enough to end up as a protected seed.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they won out, and yes I know that would involve winning at Wichita State’s Round House.

-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve).  Both teams are in the rankings and appear to be solidly in the field.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT DUKE (ACC).  Off paper, this is hyped as the nation’s biggest rivalry.  On paper, it’s important as Duke is fighting for a #1 seed and UNC is fighting for a protected seed.

-PROVIDENCE AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Providence has been very schizophrenic this year, but still appears to be in good shape.  DePaul has proven to not be the easiest place in the world to win, so it won’t be a walk in the park for Providence.

-UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve).  UCLA is right on the bubble and could really use this conference road win.  That’s one reason to highlight this game.  Another reason is because Arizona State is playing at h0me, and that means we get to once again see the greatest thing in the history of all sports fandom….THE CURTAIN OF DISTRACTION!!!  Normally I hate it when refs call too many fouls, but not in the second half of Arizona State home games.

-NORTHWESTERN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  Minney is outside the bubble, and this isn’t the kind of win that would help them all that much, but it is the kind of loss that would kill them.

-MISSOURI AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  Arkansas is who Missouri plays during Rivalry Week now.  That’s nice.  They used to play Kansas, but that went away.  CLICK HERE to read a piece on how I feel about that.  As for this game, Missouri is so weak and Arkansas is so strong at home, it may end up looking like a buy game when it’s all over.

-COLORADO STATE AT FRESNO STATE (Mountain West).  Colorado State has a rather small margin for error.  We always say that tournament teams need to win against non NIT teams on the road, so a loss would not be good.

-BOISE STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West).  Back in November, we would have been very excited about this game.  Now, it’s a Boise team who is on the bubble and trying to end up on the right side of it taking on a UNLV team that may not even be headed to the NIT.

-COLORADO AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  Oregon is another bubble team, and losing at home to a non tournament team would not be good for them.

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Highlighted Games for Tuesday, Feb 17th

Posted on February 17, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-Be sure to check out our latest Bracket Racket Podcast, where we are joined by Warren Nolan as we run through the multi-bid conferences and talk about where each team stands – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

 

TONIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-BAYLOR AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve).  There aren’t many easy road games in this league, and this is probably the least difficult to win.  Baylor is looking like a potential protected seed and shouldn’t have too much trouble.

-WAKE FOREST AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  Notre Dame has slipped a little bit after a very strong start, but they’re still a really good team and shouldn’t have too much trouble at home tonight.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  The Johnnies are right on the bubble and Georgetown appears to be safely in, but has room for improvement.  This would be a good win for either team, both of which have room to move up.

-KENTUCKY AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Kentucky continues to march toward a perfect season and, of course the top #1 seed.  Tennessee is so far outside the bubble that I think that even if they win this game they’ll still have work to do.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT GEORGIA (SEC).  Georgia appears to be in good shape and should stay that way so long as they hold serve and not lose to teams outside the field.

-SAINT LOUIS AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  VCU got a big win over the weekend, which is their first since becoming shorthanded.  They need to keep it up and avoid losing to awful teams like Saint Louis at home.

-WICHITA STATE AT SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (Missouri Valley).  Wichita shouldn’t have too much trouble against a struggling Southern Illinois team, even if they are on the road.

-TEXAS AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve).  I think Oklahoma is looking like a protected seed, and although Texas appears to be safely in, they could still really use a high caliber road win on their resume.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan, despite struggling all season, can still be tough to beat at home.  It’s a rivalry game, but it’s a game that Michigan State could really use seeing how close to the bubble they appear to be.

-LSU AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  TAMU is right on the bubble and could use any decent win, home or away, to help stabilize their profile.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West).  It’s never easy to win at the  Pit, and this is becoming one of the bigger rivalries in the Mountain West Conference.  With that being said, San Diego State appears to be the better team and can add another decent road win to their profile if they pull it off.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Tuesday, February 17, 2015: Stony Brook at Albany

Posted on February 17, 2015 by Chad

For our latest Bracket Racket, with special guest Warren Nolan, CLICK HERE.  Also, be sure to check out Warren’s amazing site — warrennolan.com

Stony Brook at Albany, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Four games.  That is all that separates the Albany Great Danes from perfection in the America East.  UAlbany enters tonight’s home game against Stony Brook a perfect 12-0 in league play and can tie their school record for conference wins in a season at the D1 level with number 13 tonight.  This season by the Great Danes has been somewhat amazing given that they only went 5-7 in non-conference games before the start of America East play (now 6-7 after adding a win at NJIT this past Friday evening).  Their losses included Holy Cross, St. Francis-PA and Niagara, none of whom look anywhere near to being NCAA tournament bid contenders this year.  However, since the calendar rolled to 2015, the Great Danes are undefeated, entering tonight’s contest on a 13 game winning streak, making them the second hottest Under the Radar team, behind only Murray State’s current 21 game streak.  They also join Murray State, Gonzaga and Kentucky as the only four schools remaining undefeated within their conferences.

Tonight, UAlbany hosts the Seawolves of Stony Brook.  Stony Brook enters the game in fourth place at 8-4 in league play and 17-10 overall.  They grabbed headlines back on December 28 when they traveled cross-country and took down previously undefeated Washington 62-57, though the Huskies’ subsequent collapse has tempered that victory somewhat.  Stony Brook already fell at home to Albany, back on January 19, by a 64-47 score.  The Seawolves will be looking to return the favor and snap UAlbany’s streak tonight.  If they cannot do it, only home contests against Hartford and Vermont, plus a road trip to UMBC, stand between the Great Danes and entering the America East tournament at 16-0.

 

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Bracket Racket: February 16th

Posted on February 17, 2015 by David Griggs

Chad and David are joined by Warren Nolan, who is the owner and publisher of WarrenNolan.com.  The go through each of the nine multi-bid conferences and talk about where all the teams stand in regards to the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  They talk about their most recent bracket projections, and what some of the differences are in their individual brackets when it comes to who they selected and seeded.

 

And for all you radio lovers out there, below is an mp3 version of the show….

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Bracket Projections: February 16th

Posted on February 16, 2015 by David Griggs

Below are my bracket projections, and below that are Chad’s comments in regards to my bracket projections.  As you can see by Chad’s comments, he agrees with some things but not others.  When he agrees with me, his comments are correct.  When he disagrees, his comments are incorrect.

No teams needed to move seed lines to meet the bracketing rules, unless I overlooked something.  West Virginia and Oklahoma could potentially meet in the Sweet Sixteen, and if they were to play each other in the Big Twelve Tournament, one of them would have to be moved.  Ohio State and Maryland have only played once, so a potential meeting within the Sweet Sixteen is within the rules.  Same with Virginia and North Carolina.

Bracket updated by David Griggs on Monday, February 16th @ 12:30am, est.  It reflects all games played through Sunday, February 15th

 

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OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE/NEXT IN LINE: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, George Washington, Purdue, Rhode Island, Davidson, Tulsa, UMass, Stanford, UTEP

 

CHAD’S NOTES ON DAVID’S BRACKET

I really hate agreeing with David, but I honestly only have a few places where I think he has gone wrong.  However, where he did go wrong, he went very wrong.

On his three line, David has placed both Baylor and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma does have the quality wins, though offset with too many losses, to at least make an argument for.  Baylor is vastly overrated.  The Bears have one and only one top 50 win away from home, and that win was at West Virginia whose profile has a ton of holes in it.  Further, that is the Bears only top 100 true road win.  Unless and until the Bears do more on the road, I do not think they deserve a protected seed.

David also placed both Louisville and Notre Dame on the 5 line.  This is way too low for both teams.  The Cardinals have no bad losses (and that NC State loss was not a bad one, even though its a game they should have won). and have won twice away from home against the top 50.  I feel their dropping to a 5 seed was nothing more than a case of being unable to recall anything beyond what happened this weekend, probably because David has been hitting the Jim Beam bottle too much.  Notre Dame is also underrated, with three top 50 wins away from home and only one loss outside the Top 25.  I know the Irish played way too easy of a non-conference schedule but I believe they have proven themselves in ACC play and deserve a protected seed at the moment.

Georgia is way overrated as well,  showing up on David’s 9 line.  While the Bulldogs have a solid RPI and SOS, the fact is that they have only one win against a team that is solidly in the field, and that was a home win over Ole Miss.  They also now have three sub-100 losses including a home loss this past weekend to Auburn.  While I know that the bubble is still fairly large and probably extends up to the 9 line, I feel Georgia is much closer to the First Four than to wearing white jerseys in the Round of 64.

David did put both UCLA and NC State in his field which I agree with.  However, I think both deserve to be above the First Four at this point.  UCLA just picked up a huge home win over another Bubble team while NC State had the biggest win of any bubble team this weekend, winning at Louisville.  When added to the home win over Duke and only one somewhat ugly loss (at Wake Forest), this NC State profile is better than 7 or 8 other teams in David’s field easily.

I have no idea why Boise State is in this field.  The Broncos lost at Fresno State this weekend and I believe there are 8 or 9 teams not even in this field that have better profiles right now.  Boise has only two wins against this field, and both came at home.  Meanwhile they also have three sub-100 losses with two of them being sub-150.  I personally would have chosen Purdue for this spot though could have understood picks of Oregon, Minnesota, Stanford, Tulsa or even *cover your ears* Davidson.  While none of those teams has a great profile (Purdue’s being the best of the lot), they are all better than Boise.

Finally, I agree with David that Louisiana Tech is deserving of the automatic bid spot from Conference USA, but they probably should be down on the 14 line.  CUSA is looking worse and worse each week and La Tech’s profile has as many sub-150 losses on it as 150+ wins (none of which are against anyone even near the bubble).

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, February 16, 2015: Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word

Posted on February 16, 2015 by Chad

For the rest of today’s news, notes and highlighted games, CLICK HERE.

Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word, 8:00 PM Eastern, free streaming at cardinalathletics.com

February 16, 2013.  Stephen F. Austin loses at Southeastern Louisiana 54-50.  Just two days shy of two calendar years later, on February 14, 2015, SFA lost at Texas AA&M-Corpus Christi, 71-63.  Between those two dates, the Lumberjacks had won every single regular season Southland Conference game they played.  But with that streak, and any realistic hope of an at-large bid if they slip up in the conference tournament, gone, the ‘jacks will now be looking to simply capture the Southland regular season crown and lock up the top seed for the tournament next month.  Given how their trip to Corpus Christi went this weekend, however, winning in San Antonio tonight is by no means a given.

SFA enters tonight’s game at 10-1 in conference play and 20-4 overall, technically half a game behind Sam Houston State (11-1) for the conference lead, though the Lumberjacks did win at Sam Houston earlier this year in dominating fashion.  SFA enters tonight’s game with an RPI of 84, BPI of 77 and KenPom of 52 — numbers that will not improve much at all given their remaining schedule.  They have no top 50 wins and only two top 100 — with one of those being at home against a Long Beach State team that is barely in the top 100.  The other was a road win, but at a Memphis team that, as David likes to say, will only be going to the NCAA tournament if they buy tickets.  The top seed in the Southland tournament, and the double bye into the semifinals that comes with it, is however easily within the Lumberjacks’ grasp.  They need to bounce back quickly from the loss though if they want to stay ahead of their rivals from Huntsville.

Incarnate Word will not be playing in the Southland tournament at all, as the Cardinals are in their second of four transitional years up to the D1 level.  After playing only a partial SLC schedule last season, UIW (along with fellow transitional team Abilene Christian) is playing a full SLC schedule this season.  They enter pay tonight a very respectable 7-4 in conference play and 15-6 overall, the best record of the six current transitional teams.  Their wins most notably include a non-conference victory at Nebraska back in December.  While the overall record and the win over the ‘huskers has certainly turned some heads, being able to hand SFA a second consecutive loss tonight will serve notice throughout the Southland Conference that UIW intends to be a force to be reckoned with as they complete their transition over the next two seasons and beyond.

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