Bracket Projections: February 16th

Posted on February 16, 2015 by David Griggs

Below are my bracket projections, and below that are Chad’s comments in regards to my bracket projections.  As you can see by Chad’s comments, he agrees with some things but not others.  When he agrees with me, his comments are correct.  When he disagrees, his comments are incorrect.

No teams needed to move seed lines to meet the bracketing rules, unless I overlooked something.  West Virginia and Oklahoma could potentially meet in the Sweet Sixteen, and if they were to play each other in the Big Twelve Tournament, one of them would have to be moved.  Ohio State and Maryland have only played once, so a potential meeting within the Sweet Sixteen is within the rules.  Same with Virginia and North Carolina.

Bracket updated by David Griggs on Monday, February 16th @ 12:30am, est.  It reflects all games played through Sunday, February 15th

 

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OUTSIDE THE BUBBLE/NEXT IN LINE: Oregon, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, George Washington, Purdue, Rhode Island, Davidson, Tulsa, UMass, Stanford, UTEP

 

CHAD’S NOTES ON DAVID’S BRACKET

I really hate agreeing with David, but I honestly only have a few places where I think he has gone wrong.  However, where he did go wrong, he went very wrong.

On his three line, David has placed both Baylor and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma does have the quality wins, though offset with too many losses, to at least make an argument for.  Baylor is vastly overrated.  The Bears have one and only one top 50 win away from home, and that win was at West Virginia whose profile has a ton of holes in it.  Further, that is the Bears only top 100 true road win.  Unless and until the Bears do more on the road, I do not think they deserve a protected seed.

David also placed both Louisville and Notre Dame on the 5 line.  This is way too low for both teams.  The Cardinals have no bad losses (and that NC State loss was not a bad one, even though its a game they should have won). and have won twice away from home against the top 50.  I feel their dropping to a 5 seed was nothing more than a case of being unable to recall anything beyond what happened this weekend, probably because David has been hitting the Jim Beam bottle too much.  Notre Dame is also underrated, with three top 50 wins away from home and only one loss outside the Top 25.  I know the Irish played way too easy of a non-conference schedule but I believe they have proven themselves in ACC play and deserve a protected seed at the moment.

Georgia is way overrated as well,  showing up on David’s 9 line.  While the Bulldogs have a solid RPI and SOS, the fact is that they have only one win against a team that is solidly in the field, and that was a home win over Ole Miss.  They also now have three sub-100 losses including a home loss this past weekend to Auburn.  While I know that the bubble is still fairly large and probably extends up to the 9 line, I feel Georgia is much closer to the First Four than to wearing white jerseys in the Round of 64.

David did put both UCLA and NC State in his field which I agree with.  However, I think both deserve to be above the First Four at this point.  UCLA just picked up a huge home win over another Bubble team while NC State had the biggest win of any bubble team this weekend, winning at Louisville.  When added to the home win over Duke and only one somewhat ugly loss (at Wake Forest), this NC State profile is better than 7 or 8 other teams in David’s field easily.

I have no idea why Boise State is in this field.  The Broncos lost at Fresno State this weekend and I believe there are 8 or 9 teams not even in this field that have better profiles right now.  Boise has only two wins against this field, and both came at home.  Meanwhile they also have three sub-100 losses with two of them being sub-150.  I personally would have chosen Purdue for this spot though could have understood picks of Oregon, Minnesota, Stanford, Tulsa or even *cover your ears* Davidson.  While none of those teams has a great profile (Purdue’s being the best of the lot), they are all better than Boise.

Finally, I agree with David that Louisiana Tech is deserving of the automatic bid spot from Conference USA, but they probably should be down on the 14 line.  CUSA is looking worse and worse each week and La Tech’s profile has as many sub-150 losses on it as 150+ wins (none of which are against anyone even near the bubble).

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, February 16, 2015: Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word

Posted on February 16, 2015 by Chad

For the rest of today’s news, notes and highlighted games, CLICK HERE.

Stephen F. Austin at Incarnate Word, 8:00 PM Eastern, free streaming at cardinalathletics.com

February 16, 2013.  Stephen F. Austin loses at Southeastern Louisiana 54-50.  Just two days shy of two calendar years later, on February 14, 2015, SFA lost at Texas AA&M-Corpus Christi, 71-63.  Between those two dates, the Lumberjacks had won every single regular season Southland Conference game they played.  But with that streak, and any realistic hope of an at-large bid if they slip up in the conference tournament, gone, the ‘jacks will now be looking to simply capture the Southland regular season crown and lock up the top seed for the tournament next month.  Given how their trip to Corpus Christi went this weekend, however, winning in San Antonio tonight is by no means a given.

SFA enters tonight’s game at 10-1 in conference play and 20-4 overall, technically half a game behind Sam Houston State (11-1) for the conference lead, though the Lumberjacks did win at Sam Houston earlier this year in dominating fashion.  SFA enters tonight’s game with an RPI of 84, BPI of 77 and KenPom of 52 — numbers that will not improve much at all given their remaining schedule.  They have no top 50 wins and only two top 100 — with one of those being at home against a Long Beach State team that is barely in the top 100.  The other was a road win, but at a Memphis team that, as David likes to say, will only be going to the NCAA tournament if they buy tickets.  The top seed in the Southland tournament, and the double bye into the semifinals that comes with it, is however easily within the Lumberjacks’ grasp.  They need to bounce back quickly from the loss though if they want to stay ahead of their rivals from Huntsville.

Incarnate Word will not be playing in the Southland tournament at all, as the Cardinals are in their second of four transitional years up to the D1 level.  After playing only a partial SLC schedule last season, UIW (along with fellow transitional team Abilene Christian) is playing a full SLC schedule this season.  They enter pay tonight a very respectable 7-4 in conference play and 15-6 overall, the best record of the six current transitional teams.  Their wins most notably include a non-conference victory at Nebraska back in December.  While the overall record and the win over the ‘huskers has certainly turned some heads, being able to hand SFA a second consecutive loss tonight will serve notice throughout the Southland Conference that UIW intends to be a force to be reckoned with as they complete their transition over the next two seasons and beyond.

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News, Notes and Highlighted Games for Monday, February 16th

Posted on February 15, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-Our new bracket projections will be posted some time late Sunday night/early Monday morning.  I’m building the bracket, and Chad is critiquing it.

-We will be recording our Bracket Racket Video Podcast tonight.  Be sure to check it out.

 

MONDAY NIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MIAMI FL AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  Miami really cannot afford to lose this game on the road.  They’re right on the bubble and in trouble as it is.  This game was originally scheduled for Sunday, but had to be rescheduled, presumably due to weather.

-PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Pitt got a huge win over the weekend against North Carolina.  They’ve had an unspectacular year outside of that and we haven’t talked much about them, but if they can pull off a big upset win in a game like this they’ll definitely be in the NCAA Tournament picture.

-SETON HALL AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Seton Hall is back peddling fast and really needs a big win.  Nova appears to be a solid #2 seed who won a big game at Butler over the weekend and is starting to distance themselves from the rest of the league.

-MAINE-FT KENT AT NJIT.  The team of the people lost a heartbreaker to Albany this past Friday, but should have little trouble winning at home tonight.

-SFA AT INCARNATE WORD (Southland).  SFA is coming off a loss to TAMUCC, and now has next to no chance of getting in the tournament without the automatic bid.

-KANSAS AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve).  Kansas is having a fantastic year, but it’s never easy to win on the road, especially in a snake pit like West Virginia.  The fans should be really geeked up for this one as they try and put a high profile win on their profile.

-BUTLER AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  As poorly as Creighton has played in the league, it’s still not easy to go there and win.  Butler needs to rebound from an emotional loss to Villanova over the weekend.

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Highlighted Games for Sunday, Feb 15th

Posted on February 15, 2015 by David Griggs

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-ILLINOIS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Illinois is improving and should end up inside the bubble by the end of the year.  Of course pulling off the upset against a Wisconsin team who is contending for a #1 seed could really catapult their profile.

-IOWA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  Iowa is coming off a somewhat surprising home loss to Minnesota and needs to rebound by picking up this win on the road today.  Like we always say, tournament teams need to be able to win on the road against non NIT teams.

-NORTHERN IOWA AT MISSOURI STATE (Missouri Valley).  I really like this Northern Iowa team and think they’ll ultimately end up as a protected seed.

-STANFORD AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve).  Stanford has fallen all the way to the bubble and they cannot afford to lose this game today.

-NEBRASKA AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Purdue has a lot of work to do, but this is one of many winnable games they have between now and the end.  They need to take advantage of it.

-MIAMI FL AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC).  Miami has been wildly inconsistent all season long.  They simply cannot afford to lose this game on the road to a very unimpressive BC team.

-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve).  Wazzu is much improved and they do have some momentum built up.  This is still the kind of game Arizona should win, but I don’t think you can just rubber stamp it the way you could in previous years.

-MINNESOTA AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Many at Hoops HD feel Minnesota is a bubble team.  I really don’t see it, but if they win today they’ll be impossible to ignore.

-CALIFORNIA AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  Utah should end up as a protected seed and needs to hold serve at home against non-tournament teams.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Sunday, February 15, 2015: VMI at The Citadel

Posted on February 15, 2015 by Chad

VMI at The Citadel, 5:30 PM Eastern, American Sports Network

With the regular season entering its stretch drive, we here at Hoops HD will be paying attention not only to the battles for the regular season championships in the Under the Radar conferences, but also the battles for conference tournament byes and even (in those conferences that everyone does not make the field) conference tournament qualification.  Today’s UTR Game of the Day turns to the battle for sixth place in the Southern Conference, which comes with the conference’s final bye past the first round and directly into the quarterfinals.  Entering play today, one game separates sixth place from 10th, with VMI, Samford, UNC-Greensboro, The Citadel and Furman all in the battle.

VMI enters today’s game in Charleston, South Carolina at 5-9 in conference play and 9-16 overall.  The Keydets have been somewhat disappointing in their first year back in the Southern after spending 11 seasons in the Big South, especially after registering 22 victories last year.  The biggest difference from last season to this for VMI has been the scoring.  While they are still one of the fastest teams in college basketball (in fact entering play today they are ranked #1 in adjusted tempo by KenPom), their offensive efficiency has dropped from a respectable 90th last season too a very poor 307th this year.  Back on February 3 they were actually held to only 23 points in the first half at home against UNC-Greensboro, which would be inexcusable for the slowest team in the country, let alone the fastest.  However, the Keydets do have a shot to at least finish in the top 6 if they can turn things around in their final four regular season games, starting this evening.

The Citadel (4-9 in conference, 9-15 overall) enters today’s game fresh off of a road win at Samford which snapped a six game losing streak.  Prior to the Samford win, the Bulldogs’ last victory was one of the most shocking wins by anyone all season, when the defeated SoCon front-runner Wofford 69-66 back on January 15.  With an over 250 point difference in KenPom ratings for the two teams entering the game, it may be one of the craziest upsets we have seen in years.  In fact, it is The Citadel’s only win over a top 250 team all season.  The Bulldogs will need a few more such wins, including a huge run in the SoCon tournament if they are going to have a shot at getting off of “the list” this season.  “The list” that The Citadel is on is the group of five teams (along with St Francis-Brooklyn, Army, William & Mary and Northwestern) that have been members of Division I since it began in 1948 and never qualified for an NCAA tournament.  If this will be the year, it will likely need to start with a win tonight.

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News, Notes and Highlighted Games for Saturday, February 14

Posted on February 14, 2015 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-It was a very eventful Friday evening, at least by Friday evening standards.  Arizona throttled Washington at Washington in what was the evening’s most boring game.

-In the Ivy League, Harvard jumped out to a big lead against Columbia, but was just barely able to hold on as Columbia came thundering back.  The win allows Harvard to stay atop the Ivy League.

-Toledo, who we again recently started championing, lost at home to Kent State right on cue.  It was an overtime thriller between two teams who are going after the double bye in the MAC Tournament.

-Cleveland State, who is in a three way tie for first place, fell down big at Detroit, but fought back to take the lead in the final minute, only to lose it in the final seconds.  It’s a huge loss for the Vikings, because the first place team in Horizon receives a double bye and earns home court advantage throughout the conference tournament.

-Valpo and Green Bay were the other two teams who were part of the three way tie in the Horizon League.  Valpo continues to have an an impressive year as they got the big win at home against Green Bay to move into first place.

-Manhattan and Iona, which is probably the best rivalry in the Metro Atlantic, put on another show as it once again came down to the final seconds.  Manhattan had won four of their last five, and had just one loss at home on the season, so it wasn’t an easy game for Iona to win, but they made big plays down the stretch and pulled it off.  This Iona team is really playing well right now, and if they do win the automatic bid they could really make someone sweat in the round of 64.

-And last but not least, NJIT, the team of the people. lost an exciting game to Albany.  Albany is unbeaten in the America East, and with just four games remaining, all of which seem winnable, it’s looking like they’re going to run the table in the league and earn home court advantage in the conference tournament.  The game went back and fourth, but NJIT missed some key freethrows down the stretch and Albany pulled down some big offensive rebounds as they went on to win

 

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State could really use a big road win to improve their seeding.  Michigan State is right on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel to it.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  UNC can get a protected seed, but to get it they need to avoid road losses to non-tournament teams.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East).  The Johnnies are right on the bubble and could use a big road win to stabilize their profile.  Xavier is in pretty good shape, but still has room to improve.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton is inside the bubble and should be okay if they avoid losses to non tournament teams.

-BAYLOR AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  Both teams look like protected seeds, and Kansas is knocking on the door for a #1 seed.  Like many Big Twelve games, it’s two ranked teams who can add a quality win to their profile.

-EAST CAROLINA AT TEMPLE (American).  I’m starting to like this Temple team and expect them to end up in the field.  But, if they drop a few games like this their status could plummet in a hurry.

-TULANE AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati is in good shape and needs to hold serve against the non-tournament teams.

-AUBURN AT GEORGIA (SEC).  Georgia is coming off a huge win, and now appears to be very solidly in the NCAA Tournament picture.  They’ve played well at home this year and should be able to hold off an improving, but still far from tournament caliber Auburn team.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky needs to win to remain the overall #1 team.

-VCU AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten).  Both teams DESPERATELY need this win.  VCU has struggled since losing key players to injuries, and they need to show the committee they can win without them, which they have yet to do.  GW has also been in decline, and needs a win to resuscitate their season.  This is also developing into a good conference rivalry, so it should be a good one.

-WAKE FOREST AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  This is a very winnable game for Virginia, despite the recent injury.

-OREGON AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  Both teams are squarely on the bubble, so this is a hugely important and pivotal game for both of them.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve).  Two more ranked Big Twelve teams who can pick up yet another quality win.  Iowa State appears to be a protected seed, and although West Virginia doesn’t have that kind of a profile yet, winning a game like this will boost it way up.

-SETON HALL AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Seton Hall has had a player leave the team, and is currently in a  tailspin.  It’ll be interesting to see how they adjust to the change.  They’re right on the bubble and need a win like this to stabilize their tournament chances.

-LSU AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee is coming off a nice road against Vanderbilt, but they still have a lot of work to do to even end up in consideration.  LSU appears to be safe, but a road win like this would still be a nice addition to their profile.

-NC STATE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  NC State is on the outside looking in, but if they can pull off a win like this they could end up on the bubble pretty quickly.  Perhaps even inside of it.  Louisville is in good shape and should end up as a protected seed if they keep winning at the same clip they have been.

-SFA AT TAMUCC (Southland).  If SFA wins out, the committee should at least consider them.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TCU (Big Twelve).  TCU has lost 28 of their last 29 conference games, but winning on the road there still isn’t the easiest thing in the world to do.  Okie State has been playing much better in the past few weeks, and can end up as a protected seed if they keep it up.

-WICHITA STATE AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley).  Wichita State is clearly the better team, but it’s a showcase home game for Illinois State, so it won’t just be a walk in the park for the Shockers.

-VILLANOVA AT BUTLER (Big East).  These are the two best and two highest ranked teams in the conference, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them end up as protected seeds.  They both also seem to be improving as the year progresses, so this should be a fun one.

-DUKE AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  This isn’t quite the showcase as it was a year ago.  Syracuse is ineligible for the postseason, and Duke appears to be a solid #1 seed.

-FLORIDA AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  TAMU is right on the bubble, and they need to pick up this win at home.

-TEXAS TECH AT TEXAS (Big Twelve).  Texas is in pretty good shape despite a high number of losses.  All but one of their losses have come against teams who are likely to end up as protected seeds, so they shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up this win.

-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma has been somewhat inconsistent, but they’ve played really well lately and can add another road win to their profile today.

-PEPPERDINE AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  This is a conference game that will end up looking like a buy game.  I do think Gonzaga will get a #1 seed if they win out.

-COLORADO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  San Diego State is safely inside the bubble, and Colorado State could really boost their profile and end up feeling really safe as well if they’re able to pick up a big road win like this one.

-MARYLAND AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  Maryland hasn’t been playing quite as well lately, but this is still a winnable conference road game for them.

-OLD DOMINION AT UTEP (Conference USA).  I don’t think either team will end up inside the bubble, but these are two of the better teams in CUSA so it should be a fun game.

-UCONN AT SMU (American).  UConn is a long way from the bubble, and if they want to end up in a position to make the field they really need a big win like this on their profile.  This would be the biggest win of any remaining on their schedule.

-ARKANSAS AT OLE MISS (SEC).  Both these teams have had great years, and Ole Miss has really improved as the season has gone on.  This is a showcase home game for them, so it should be a great atmosphere.

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