We here at Hoops HD are trying something new. This shouldn’t be that surprising. We’re always trying something new. We will still be doing our consensus brackets on Thursday evenings/Friday mornings. But, one of the things we’re going to start doing on Sundays is that one of us will do our own personal bracket, and open it up for criticism from the rest of the panel. This week, Chad has provided us with his own personal bracket. You can see it below. Below that, you’ll see my notes discussing what he did right, what he did wrong, and other tidbits. Next Sunday I will do a bracket, and Chad will critique it. He will agree with what I did correctly, and disagree with what I did correctly because I never do anything incorrectly. But, I’ve decided to go ahead and let him disagree and be wrong anyway.
Bracket Updated by Chad Sherwood on Monday, February 9th at 12:05am, est.
DAVID’S NOTES ON CHAD’S BRACKET
-Kentucky, Virginia and Duke are obvious #1 seeds. I also agree with Chad’s fourth #1 seed in Gonzaga. I realize they don’t have the paper that a team like Kansas has in regards to the number of quality wins and the overall strength of schedule. But, on the court, I think they’re legitimately the fourth best team in the country. They are also very high in the rankings, which does influence the committee for two reasons. The human polls are in the room, and there is an additional NABC Ranking and Advisory Committee that is part of the selection, and if they’re ranked highly in the polls one can also suppose they’d be ranked highly by the NABC Advisors.
-I’m not as big of an Iowa State fan as Chad is simply because of what they’ve done (or not done) away from home. They’ve won at Iowa and at West Virginia, both of which are really good, but I think they need more than just two true road wins to land as high as the #2 line. I Know that Arizona is coming off a loss to Arizona State, who isn’t an NIT team, much less a tournament team, but it’s the entire body of work. That phrase is repeated so much that it’s annoying, but it’s also true. It IS the entire body of work, and Arizona’s is pretty good.
-Chad has Northern Iowa on the #3 line. Most people probably feel he is out of his mind! You know what, though?? I AGREE WITH CHAD!! This is a UNI team who doesn’t have an abundance of high quality wins, but they’ve won at SFA (7-1 at home), they beat Iowa handily on a neutral floor, and they have seven true road wins and ten overall wins away from home. Their only two losses on the season came at VCU (who as at full strength) in overtime, and by just three points at Evansville. That is a very good profile when you look at it closely, and the committee will give them credit for that. If they don’t, then they should.
-Chad still has Maryland on the #4 line. I agree that their overall body of work may suggest that, but I don’t see them staying there. I think his entire #5 line of Butler, Utah, Wichita State and Oklahoma State look much better than Maryland right now. In fact, this Butler team has an incredible profile on paper, and they’re looking better and better on the court as well. I would have them up ahead of Maryland right now.
-West Virginia on the #6 line may seem low, but here’s the thing; name a team Chad has seeded better than them that they’ve beaten. Oklahoma is the only one, and they beat them at home. It’s one of just two RPI top fifty wins for WVU with the other being Wofford, which they also got at home. I agree with Chad on this one, and could even make a case that they shouldn’t be as high as the #6 line.
-I think SMU is playing much better than LSU right now, and their overall body of work is also better. I know they lost at home to Cincinnati earlier this week, but they also won at Tulsa.
-Chad has Ohio State and Cincinnati squaring off in the #8 v #9 game. This game should not be allowed because these two teams should be playing every year during the regular season, which would prevent them from meeting in the Round of 64. But, since they don’t play, it’s a great matchup! I think Cincinnati is trending up despite them having to sweat out South Florida at home over the weekend. I also think Ohio State needs some wins away from home. Their national ranking makes no sense, as they have done almost nothing to deserve it. I do think Cincinnati is the better team on paper and on the court right now.
-Ole Miss on the #8 line just seems crazy, but when you look at their profile and look at the teams below them, it’s hard to argue against it. I really really really want to, though. It’s nothing against Ole Miss in particular. It’s just frustrating to see what appears to be a bubble team so far inside the bubble that they’re on the #8 line.
-The top of Miami FL’s profile is really good, and the bottom is really bad. At the end of the day, I would argue they belong a couple of lines higher. An argument could be made that they belong on the #10 line, or even worse than that, but I think good wins overshadow bad losses, at least to a point.
-Stanford has not looked like an NIT team, much less an NCAA team, in the last several weeks, but their entire body of work indicates that they belong in the field. I think they’re out by Selection Sunday, though.
-I see Chad has been smoking crack again when I see Temple in his field. They’ve beaten Kansas at home. You don’t even need a full hand to count the number of wins they have against tournament teams. You just need one finger. Now, here is the hard question. Who do you put in instead?? Umm…….Now I need to smoke some crack.
-Since Temple is actually inside the bubble, we have to look at Old Dominion, SFA and even Green Bay and think/hope they have a shot at landing inside of it. I believe them to be better teams than Temple, but I also understand that the paper may not show it. I also believe that on the court, Murray State is better than Temple (at least on most nights), but their paper is so weak you can’t make a case for them even if you feel they are better.
-I had been saying I believed Long Beach State could land inside the bubble if they won out. They lost at home to a UC Irvine team that probably won’t make the NIT. That will be too much to overcome, and I agree that they’re probably not even the best team in the Big West right now.
-CHAD’S OVERALL GRADE – F. It was better than that, but I’ve always wanted to give Chad an F in something.
For Chad’s Reply and to add your own comments, check out our Forums by CLICKING HERE.
TONIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). These are two teams that could end up as protected seeds looking for another quality win in a Big Twelve conference that is logjammed in the middle.
-DUKE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Duke has proven to be very formidable on the road this year and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking this one up.
-SFA AT NORTHWESTERN STATE (Southland). If SFA wins out, I’d be in favor of them landing inside the bubble because I do think they’re good enough, but I still think they’ll need the automatic bid.
-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). Another Big Twelve match-up between two teams that could end up as protected seeds. If Iowa State gets a road win like this I could see moving them up to the #2 line.
Highlighted Games for Wednesday, Feb 11
NEWS AND NOTES
-We will be recording our Under the Radar video podcast tonight. Hopefully. Technical difficulties seem to have struck the Griggs household and I’m hoping those get cleared up. One of the things we will be discussing is what is happening at South Carolina State. A proposal by the State of South Carolina House of Representatives that would close the institution for two full academic years. This would mean no classes or students of any kind, which is horrible. Athletically, it would also mean, as far as I know, that if the school were to reopen, it would have to go through reclassification if they wanted to be a div1 program. In other words, they would be a transitional team. Another problem is that schools must have accreditation to participate in the NCAA. If SC State closes, it will certainly lose its accreditation since it is, you know, closed, and it may take as long as two years to get it back. That would obviously delay their reentry into div1 even longer.
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
TONIGHT’S HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). West Virginia is safe, but has room for improvement. K State is on the outside looking in. The bad news is that it’s tough to win in this conference. The good news is that if you can win in this conference, you can build your profile in a hurry.
-SYRACUSE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). Syracuse is right on the bubble, but as per the Hoops HD rules, if they lose tonight to Boston College they’re automatically ineligible for the…….oh wait. Nevermind.
-MIAMI FL AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). We say this all the time, but the kind of road games solid tournament teams need to win are the ones they play against non-NIT teams.
-PENN STATE AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Ohio State appears to be improving and shouldn’t have too much trouble tonight. Unfortunately this isn’t the kind of game that will boost their profile.
-GEORGIA AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). This is a HUGELY important game between two teams that are hovering right around the bubble. Both need the win to establish that they’re better than the other.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten). To repeat….We say this all the time, but the kind of road games solid tournament teams need to win are the ones they play against non-NIT teams.
-LA SALLE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU really needs a win to stop the bleeding and to start the process of establishing they can be an NCAA Tournament caliber team despite the injuries.
-RHODE ISLAND AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Personally, I’m not on the Rhody bandwagon despite their bloated conference record, but they are on the radar of virtually everyone else here at Hoops HD. One thing we can agree on is that even if they are alive and kicking, they won’t be if they lose this one.
-GREEN BAY AT YOUNGSTOWN STATE (Horizon League). I don’t think Green Bay can get inside the bubble even if they win out, but they can at least flirt with it.
-TCU AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). As improved as TCU is they’re still just 1-9 in league play. Texas is falling down fast and can’t afford to lose what is probably one of their more winnable conference games.
-ILLINOIS STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). UNI continues to roll. I think they’ll end up as a protected seed, or at least they should.
-INDIANA STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). The MVC is a two horse race. Wichita State is the other horse. They’re high in the rankings and could end up as a protected seed.
-PITTSBURGH AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Louisville can still end up as good as the #2 line. Pitt is on the outside looking in, but at 5-5 in the conference they could play their way into the picture pretty quickly if they’re able to pick up a few wins like this one. It’s much easier said than done, though.
-VIRGINIA AT NC STATE (ACC). Huge game here for NC State. They need to pull off some big wins to get the attention of the committee, so they really need to come in with a sense of urgency to night. Should be a great crowd.
-VILLANOVA AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Nova has just two losses, but this would be one of their more impressive true road wins if they’re able to pull it off. Both teams are in really good shape.
-DEPAUL AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). The Johnnies are firmly on the bubble and can’t afford to lose at home to a non-tournament team.
-AIR FORCE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). I’m starting to like this Boise State team, but won’t like them if they fail to win this one. AFA can be tricky, so they better be ready for them.
-OREGON AT USC (Pac Twelve). Oregon is way outside the bubble and needs to string some wins together just to get into the picture.
-INDIANA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Maryland is slipping, but still safe. Indiana is safe as well, but they could still improve their profile by winning some big road games.
-TENNESSEE AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Tennessee, like Oregon, is outside the bubble and needs to string some wins together just to get into the picture.
-WYOMING AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). Wyoming really blew it over the weekend and needs a big win like this to recover. It’s much easier said than done, though.