For a viewing guide of all of today’s (and this week’s) action, check out Matt Sarzyniak’s website and viewing guide – CLICK HERE
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma State has looked good, but another conference road win will help improve their profile.
-TULSA AT EAST CAROLINA (American). We kind of dismissed Tulsa after a slow start to the season, but they’re unbeaten in conference, which kind of forces us to at least pay attention to them.
-DEPAUL AT XAVIER (Big East). DePaul is 5-2 in the league, and although they’re not expected to win this one, they’ve been playing really well and this would be their third conference win. Xavier is right on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel.
-IOWA AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Iowa has been inconsistent on the year, but still has looked pretty good.
-KENTUCKY AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). Kentucky has struggled on the road in conference a time or two, but they’re still the #1 overall team in the country. It’ll be interesting to see what an improved, but still far from great, South Carolina team can do against them.
-TEXAS A&M AT TENNESSEE (SEC). I’ve mentioned before that I didn’t think Tennessee was close to the bubble. Well, I didn’t until I sat down and did my last seed list and actually ended up with them in the field I have TAMU under consideration as well. Both have a lot of work to do, so this is a big game for both teams.
-KANSAS AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). Kansas has improved as the year has gone on, and this would be a huge road win on their profile if they pull it off. Both teams are looking like protected seeds.
-TCU AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). I really like this West Virginia team, and could see them shooting way up the rankings and up the seed list if they do well in this league.
-BUFFALO AT OHIO (MAC). We haven’t written Buffalo completely off yet as being unable to reach the bubble, but one more loss and we probably will.
-FLORIDA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). UNC is a solid protected seed who appears to be improving as the year goes along.
-DUQUESNE AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). It hasn’t always been easy for GW, but so far they’ve managed to pull out wins in several close games. They don’t want to drop one like this at home to a very weak Duquesne team.
-DARTMOUTH AT HARVARD (Ivy League). The race for first in the Ivy is on.
-ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI (SEC). Arkansas hasn’t looked all that strong in their last two games, but they survived earlier this week against Alabama. This should be a winnable road game for a team who traditionally struggles on the road, but has managed to pick a few up this year.
-ILLINOIS AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Illinois is on the bubble. The committee favors road wins, and this is a winnable road game for them.
-GEORGETOWN AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Georgetown has a solid profile, and this should be a winnable conference road game for them.
-GEORGIA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). We have Georgia inside the bubble, but they’re not the best road team. This is the kind of road game that a tournament team should be expected to win.
-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). I seem to like this Iowa State team a lot more than most. Either way, I don’t think they’ll have too much trouble picking this one up.
-BYU AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). BYU is running out of strikes. If they lose one or two more they’ll likely be unable to end up inside the bubble.
-MIAMI FL AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Miami is another team that I seem to like a lot more than most. Syracuse isn’t having the best year, but they’re still being projected in the field and it’s still not an easy place to win. I think Miami will be able to do it, though.
-NEW MEXICO AT WYOMING (Mountain West). A big game that will impact the top of the MWC standings, and that involves a Wyoming team that’s on the bubble, and a New Mexico team that could end up there if they’re able to finish at or near the top of the league.
-UCLA AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Both teams need to win this game, and do a lot more than that, to get back into the picture. UCLA has at least playing better in their last few games.
-MICHIGAN STATE AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Michigan State is very close to the bubble and could use a notable road win. Nebraska, while not a tournament team, is still tough at home and Michigan State would get credit for the win. Tim Miles is….oh forget it. It’s just too depressing.
-OLD DOMINION AT UAB (Conference USA). A huge sense of urgency is setting in for Old Dominion, who has lost two conference road games to teams that will not finish inside the bubble. If they drop a third road game, and fall three games behind Western Kentucky in the standings, it will become very hard to make a case that they’re an at-large team if that holds up.
-SFA AT SAM HOUSTON (Southland). These are the best two teams in the Southland, and it’s on Sam Houston’s home court. It will be SFA’s toughest challenge between now and the end of the year, and if they win out, they should at least get a look.
-OKLAHOMA AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Both teams are ranked, and both are likely protected seeds, so it’s a chance for both to pick up a quality win. Baylor is also trying to avoid dropping to 2-4 in league play.
-HOUSTON AT SMU (American). Because of the slow start, I don’t think too many people realize how well SMU is playing right now. I bet the committee has noticed, though.
-LSU AT VANDERBILT (SEC). LSU is having a good year and should end up safely in the field. This isn’t the easiest road game for them, but it is certainly one they’re capable of winning.
-FLORIDA AT OLE MISS (SEC). I’m mentioning this game only to mention that I’m not mentioning this game.
-DAVIDSON AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten). It’s quite simple. Davidson is a bubble team. If they want to be a tournament team, they need to win all their road games against teams as weak as George Mason is.
-RICHMOND AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is coming off a road loss to Davidson, and although they don’t have many good wins, they should still be alright so long as they avoid losses to non-tournament teams. Like Richmond, for instance.
-WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). Wisconsin is good enough to possibly end up with a #1 seed, and Michigan has a lot of work to do just to get back into the conversation. That being said, beating Wisconsin would be a fantastic start.
-PACIFIC AT GONZAGA (West Coast). We see a lot of this in conference play for the Zags, but this is a conference game that will feel like a buy game.
-AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama is outside the bubble, but they did nearly pull off wins at Wichita State and at Arkansas, so they aren’t exactly terrible. They’ll get more chances to play their way into the conversation. Having said that, losing at home to a rival that’s nowhere near the conversation would not be good.
-SAINT MARY’S AT PORTLAND (West Coast). SMC is right on the bubble, but should be fine so long as they avoid bad losses, which pretty much means avoiding losses to anyone other than Gonzaga.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). This should be a fun one. It’s two of the better teams in the Mountain West. San Diego State could still end up as a protected seed, and Colorado State is going after a signature win that can help solidify their resume.
-ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). It’s never easy to play on the road, but this is still a game Arizona, who is a potential #1 seed, shouldn’t have too much trouble winning.
-ARIZONA STATE AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Stanford appears to be a tournament caliber team, and should be fine if they do things like avoid home losses to non-tournament caliber teams.
Bracket Projections for Friday, Jan 23rd
For a discussion of each team and the seed lines they ended up on, see our latest Bracket Rundown show – CLICK HERE
BRACKET NOTES
– The only seed line swap required was between the last 11 seed (Tennessee) and the top 12 seed (St Mary’s/Washington First Four game). This was done to send the First Four winner to a Friday-Sunday site that did not require them to travel cross-country from Dayton to Seattle.
– The potential Kentucky vs LSU round of 32 game is perfectly permissible as the two teams only play once this season. If they were to meet a second time in the SEC tournament, that potential matchup would no longer be allowed, but for purposes of these brackets we do not assume any conference tournament pairings.
– I got a kick out of VCU’s pod in the West Region, featuring Oklahoma vs Stephen F Austin (a regular season rematch from two years ago won by SFA) and a potential VCU vs SFA round of 32 game (rematch from last year’s tournament also won by SFA). That was purely coincidence, as is the potential Indiana-Notre Dame game in the round of 32. That would be a regular season rematch from this year, but those are not considered by the committee beyond the round 64.
– Teams in the top 4 seed lines are not supposed to be at a home court disadvantage in their round of 64 game. I was slightly concerned that Utah vs Eastern Washington in Portland could be an issue there, but I just don’t think it would be a factor. I do not think Eastern Washington would be placed in Seattle though.
– I have noted previously that, as the bird flies, Pittsburgh is closer to Charlottesville, VA than Charlotte is. However, it is a longer drive to Pittsburgh with no direct highways. I therefore placed Virginia in Charlotte. It will be interesting to see which way the committee goes if the Cavaliers remain on the 1 seed line.