NEWS AND NOTES
-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report Video Podcast tonight, so be sure to watch and/or listen once it’s posted.
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR GOTD – CLICK HERE
-We will discuss this on the podcast tonight, but we’ve made some changes in regards to how we will be doing our Bracket Projections. Essentially, we will be posting two kinds of brackets. One will be the Hoops HD Staff Brackets, which reflect what WE think the field SHOULD look like.
The other will be an attempt to guess what the ACTUAL COMMITTEE will do, which is entirely different from what we’ve done in the past. Jon Teitel is our official NCAA Selection Committee Bracket Guessing Expert! We plan to put that on his business card! Last year, Jon accurately predicted 66 out of 68 teams correctly, and a remarkable 62 out of 68 teams’ seedings either exactly or within one of the actual seed line. This made him among the most accurate in the nation. For more CLICK HERE to check out our BRACKET PROJECTIONS page.
-Oregon State got a big win over rival Oregon yesterday in a win that’s just as important off paper as it is on paper. This program has had so little going for it for the better part of a quarter century, and now they have a solid record and have just beaten their rivals at home. For Oregon, they are sorely lacking in wins away from home, so each conference road game is important from here on out.
-Utah Still hasn’t won a true road game. They need at least a few before the end of the year or they could be in trouble despite an otherwise fairly strong profile.
-Arizona State Head Coach Bobby Hurley was less than thrilled with the officiating in their game against rival Arizona, and ended up leaving early because of it. It was a nice road win for an Arizona team that didn’t give themselves many chances at true road wins out of conference, but now has two big ones against Arizona State and Gonzaga.
-Louisville finally beat a team that isn’t a sub NIT team!! And, it was a little harder than they thought. Wake Forest had cut the lead to just 1 with less than two minutes to go, but Louisville still held on to win. Louisville had two close losses on the road against very good teams that aren’t likely to lose at home, but as far as actually winning games, yesterday was clearly their biggest of the year.
HIGLIGHTED GAMES
-WEST VIRGINIA AT TCU (Big Twelve). West Virginia picked up a big win at Kansas State over the weekend, and needs to take advantage of what is perhaps their most winnable true road game of the season.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). North Carolina is obviously a very strong team, but to date the one thing that’s missing from their profile is a true road win. Florida State is unbeaten at home. UNC is winless in true road games. If the Tarheels win this one then it drastically improves their resume.
-CANISIUS AT MONMOUTH (Metro Atlantic). We will be saying pretty much the same thing about Monmouth for the rest of the year. They have a very strong profile, and need to avoid bad losses in order to sustain it.
-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Both teams will contend for first place in the Big Twelve, and both will contend for #1 seeds. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me to see both teams earn #1 seeds. With Oklahoma City hosting first/second round games, and Louisville and Chicago both hosting regionals, both could also end up being sent to ideal locations throughout the entire tournament. Oklahoma is unbeaten on the year, and Kansas has just one loss, which came to Michigan State in a close game when they weren’t at full strength. This one tonight should be fun.
-VIRGINIA AT VIRGNIIA TECH (ACC). Virginia Tech is a lot better than I thought they’d be. I still don’t think they’ll end up anywhere near the tournament, but they are certainly good enough to pull off some big wins at home. As good as Virginia is, they have struggled at VA Tech in recent years.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket Projections (John Stalica): Monday, January 4th
The following Bracket is John Stalica’s personal bracket. No attempt is being made to guess the actual committee. He is merely portraying the field the way he thinks it should be. To see Jon Teitel’s Bracket Projections, which do attempt to guess the committee – CLICK HERE
JOHN’S NOTES
– As David Griggs explained earlier, this bracket represents my own view as to what the bracket would look like as of today; part of the bracket is a checkpoint based on current play and part of it is the dreaded “eye test.”
– With most of the teams in the country now saddled with at least one loss, Virginia and Xavier trade seed lines this week. The Villanova win looks bigger for the Hoos along with the Sooners who beat Villanova in Hawai’i last month. Edmond Sumner’s injury will be taken into account during the year, but what is paramount is that Xavier won a big game at home against Butler without Sumner. This is in contrast to a team like Wichita State – the Shockers are back in the field this week, but they’re also in an auto-bid situation right now.
– Bracketing rules did not allow for Kentucky to be in the South Region this week; it also forced Duke to be shipped out to Spokane. As for seed line shifts, Seton Hall was bumped up to a 9 and Notre Dame down to a 10 in one instance; Washington moved up to a 10 and Monmouth down to an 11.
– Wait a minute, you said Washington? While they split games with Texas outside of the United States, they opened Pac-12 play with a splash with wins over UCLA and USC (a 22-point comeback against the Trojans). The Huskies did lose a stinker at home against UC-Santa Barbara, though.
– I did not want to include Texas Tech in the field due to the Red Raiders not playing a true road game yet, but I cannot ignore their notable wins so far – namely Little Rock, South Dakota State, Richmond and Texas.
I will now yield the floor to Mr. Chad Sherwood from New Jersey and Mr. David Griggs from his palatial couch.
-My first 4 teams out of the field – Colorado, Florida State, UCLA and Oregon State.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-My biggest gripe is Monmouth. John isn’t the only problem, but he’s definitely part of the problem. Our Selection Committee guessing expert Jon Teitel is projecting that the committee would put Monmouth on the #12 line, and John Stalica is putting them on his personal #11 line. When a team has won nine games, and were staying in a hotel for eight of them, how in the hell is that not more impressive?? We’re not talking about a trip to Disney World either. Well, okay, maybe we “literally” are since some of those wins came in Disney World, but definitely not “figuratively.” They’ve beaten Notre Dame and USC. They’re the only team that’s won at UCLA, and they also have a win at Georgetown. Losing on the road to Army and Canisius are games they should win, but when a team plays THAT many games on the road, a few losses should be forgivable. Had they played those games at home they’d probably win them. I can’t help but think the only reason Monmouth isn’t getting more respect is because of a presumption people have of them. They’re not a #5 seed. They’re Monmouth. It’s too bad their jerseys don’t say something else.
-Gonzaga is one of many teams that John likes more than Monmouth, and that the real committee will probably like more than Monmouth as well, but that hasn’t done anywhere close to as much as Monmouth, and had to sweat out an overtime win against San Francisco. I could see Gonzaga having a tough rest of the year now that they’re without their big man.
-Many people probably feel Oregon belongs on the #6 line, which is where John has them. I value road wins a lot more than most people, I guess. I think it’s harder to beat an NIT team on the road than it is to beat a tournament team at home. Oregon has been pitiful away from home. Until they can at least beat an NIT caliber team in a true road game, I can’t look at them as a team that belongs on the first ballot.
-If North Carolina wins at Florida State tonight, then I’ll feel like they belong on the #3 line. But, as of now, their next true road win will be their first.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I don’t have much to add this week that David did not already say. One thing I do notice is Oklahoma being sent to Anaheim, meaning that they would presumably be the fourth 1 seed on the S-Curve. I personally would have them #1 overall and in the South Region. Although I know that Michigan State did not have Valentine when they lost this week, I cannot overlook the loss when it comes down to deciding the ranking of the top handful of teams.