Under the Radar Game of the Day – Saturday, December 27, 2014: Georgia State at Green Bay

For the rest of today’s action, CLICK HERE.

Georgia State at Green Bay, 1:00 PM, espn3

The game of the day on Saturday is obviously Kentucky at Louisville.  But if you want something else to keep an eye on during that contest, you may want to tune in to today’s UTR Game of the Day.  The Georgia State Panthers, led by Ryan Harrow, R.J. Hunter and former Louisville player Kevin Ware will be heading to Green Bay to take on the Phoenix, led by star player Keifer Sykes.  These two teams have consistently been among the Top Ten Under the Radar teams all season and it should be a great game this afternoon.

Georgia State enters with a record of 7-3, an RPI of 51 and a KenPom of 63.  Their sole losses so far this year have been to tournament-caliber teams Iowa State, Colorado State and Old Dominion.  The biggest problem the Panthers have is a lack of quality wins and a lack of a chance to pick up any more after today with the Sun Belt Conference looking weaker than normal this year.  They did, however, beat Green Bay at home handily 72-48 back on December 4, and a sweep of their home-and-home series this year will help a lot if they need an at-large bid in March.

Green Bay has a similar problem as they head into Horizon League play.  The Phoenix are 9-3 on the season with an RPI of 38 and a KenPom of 48.  In addition to the loss at Georgia State, the Phoenix lost an early season game at Wisconsin and are coming off a tough neutral court loss in Las Vegas to UC-Irvine.  The Horizon League does appear stronger than the Sun Belt, though no other team is currently better than 100 in the KenPom ratings.  Green Bay can hang their hats on a nice road win at Miami, at least, but getting swept by Georgia State will hurt if they falter in their conference tournament.

Both teams in today’s game are well aware of what happens when you slip up during conference tournament play, as Green Bay and Georgia State both dominated their conference regular seasons last year, only to fail to capture the automatic bid.  The result, in both cases, was an NIT bid.  Both teams appear better than the NIT this season, but need to keep winning if they want to Dance.  Today’s game is the start of that journey.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Dec 27th

NOTES

-George Washington had themselves a fantastic Christmas by winning the Diamondhead Classic, and picking up a huge win against Wichita State in the championship game.  The three wins away from home against Ohio, Colorado and Wichita drastically improves their profile.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES 

-KENTUCKY AT LOUISVILLE (Spotlight Game).  You start to get the sense that if Louisville doesn’t beat Kentucky than no one will.  Kentucky has played and beaten several ranked teams rather handily already, but this will likely be their biggest test of the year.  It’s a huge rivalry game between two unbeaten teams that are hoping to end up as #1 seeds.  Kentucky has won six of the last seven, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament, so as far as the rivalry goes Louisville may be feeling a little bit of pressure in regards to needing to catch up.  It should be a fun one.

-GEORGETOWN VS INDIANA.  These two are squaring off in Madison Square Garden.  Both look like tournament caliber teams, and both can add a notable win to their profile.

-GEORGIA STATE AT GREEN BAY.  This is the second meeting between these two with Georgia State winning the first in a blowout.  Both teams are good, but it will be very difficult for either to finish inside the bubble, so it’s a game both need to win if they want any chance of that happening.

-SANTA CLARA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  It’s the conference opener.  SMC has played really well at times this year, but has also been inconsistent and needs a strong showing in league play to have any chance of making the field.

-GONZAGA AT BYU (West Coast).  It’s the league opener, and it features the two best teams.  BYU needs some notable wins to end up safely inside the bubble, and Gonzaga needs a big road win like this to help their case of being a #1 seed.

-COLORADO STATE AT NEW MEXICO STATE.  New Mexico State has had a rough start, but they are a tough team to beat at home, so it would end up being a somewhat notable win for Colorado State, who is looking to remain unbeaten.

-UAB AT NORTH CAROLINA.  It’s technically not a buy game, and UAB actually won last year’s meeting, but this game will seem like a buy game.

-MAINE AT SETON HALL.  Buy game.  The Pirates can improve to 10-2.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT MINNESOTA.  Buy game.

-OAKLAND AT MARYLAND.  Buy game.

-MERCER AT GEORGIA.  Buy game.

-WRIGHT STATE AT OHIO STATE.  Buy game.

-KENNESAW STATE AT ILLINOIS.  Buy game

-SOUTHERN UTAH AT UNLV.  Buy game

-SAN DIEGO CHRISTIAN (nondiv1) AT SAN DIEGO STATE.  Buy game.

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Bracket Projections for Wednesday, December 24th

BRACKET NOTES

-Bracket projections reflect games played through December 23rd, 2014

-This is a CHECKPOINT of the present, not a FORECAST of the future.  In other words, this is what we feel the bracket would look like if the season ended today, and not what we think it will look like in March.  Furthermore, we expect it to look very different in March.

-Teams that were considered, but are not in (and some will undoubtedly surprise you): Iowa, Texas, A&M, Loyola IL, Illinois State, Providence, Penn State, Evansville, Davidson, North Carolina State, Georgia, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Minnesota, George Washington, Harvard, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, Oregon, Xavier, Saint Mary’s, UTEP

-This is the first bracket where we have tried to go strictly off the data, and no preseason assumptions.  With that said, Syracuse is probably the most egregious omission.  But, they’ve done absolutely nothing away from home other than beat Iowa on a neutral floor, and they’ve done very little else at home.  Iowa isn’t much better, but they did get a big win at North Carolina.

-TCU is currently the last team in the bracket.  They have done absolutely nothing, and the only reason we are projecting them in is because they are currently in the rankings.  I don’t think we’ll see them in there at the end.

-Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Yale and Green Bay may be among the teams that appear to be seeded higher than you would expect, but look at their body of work.  Old Dominion has beaten VCU, LSU on a neutral site, and Georgia State.  Not too bad.  I still don’t expect Yale to win the Ivy League, much less end up on the #9 line, but as of now they’ve won at UConn and at Kent State, who is tough to beat at hme, and really don’t have bad losses other than at Quinnipiac.

-Long story short, it’s a mess.  It’s more about getting in the habit of evaluating teams than anything else.  This isn’t what it will look like in March.  We know this isn’t what it will look like in March.  We also know this is very easy to pick apart.  So, on that note, HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!!!!  I hope everyone has a safe and happy much needed holiday season!

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It’s a few days old, but CLICK HERE for our latest BRACKET RACKET video podcast

 

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Highlighted Games and Puppet Ramblings for Tuesday, Dec 23rd

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Iona and FGCU, CLICK HERE

-Our new Bracket Projections will be posted after today’s games.

PUPPET RAMBLINGS

-The unexpected not only continues to happen, but continues to happen in unexpected ways.  Two nights ago, Eastern Kentucky blasted Miami FL out of their own arena.  EKU winning was unexpected.  EKU winning by 28 was them winning in an unexpected way.  They followed up that great win with a loss at Florida Atlantic, who is unbeaten at home, but is still the kind of game you’d expect EKU to win, especially after what they did to Miami just a few nights ago.

Speaking of Miami, their big win at Florida isn’t looking so big, so you have to wonder if there will be a place for them in the bracket at all.  They ended up losing rather handily to Providence last night.

-Temple beat Kansas.  That was unexpected.  But furthermore, Temple literally curb stomped them.  A 77-52 final.  This improves Temple to 8-4, and none of their losses other than Saint Joe’s are all that bad.  Perhaps they’re playing their way toward the bubble.

-Texas Southern won at Michigan State the other night.  I’m not sure, but I think it was mentioned on the latest Bracket Racket Podcast.  You can watch and/or listen to that by CLICKING HERE.  

-Green Bay, a team we like and are really trying to promote as a potential at-large caliber team, is making that next to impossible.  They fell on a neutral floor to a UC Irvine team that is good by Big West standards, but not by at-large bid standards, and those are the kinds of games teams simply cannot lose if they want to make the case they belong inside the bubble.

-Colorado State remains unbeaten and has cracked the rankings.  I believe it is well deserved.  It’s also time for their fans to start showing up at the games.  TCU is also unbeaten and in the rankings.  I do not believe this to be deserved at all seeing as how other than their win at Ole Miss not a single win came against a team that is likely to make a postseason tournament unless they buy tickets.  This will take care of itself, though.  If they’re good enough, they’ll win in conference and stay there.  If if they’re not, they will lose badly and fall off the face of the Earth.  I must admit, though, for a program that has been very poor for a very long time, at least they’ve managed to build up some momentum.

-Old Dominion is not in the rankings, but certainly should be.  They improved to 10-1 last night with their win over William & Mary.  They have managed wins against VCU, LSU and Georgia State, which is far more than TCU has done.

-Saint John’s handily beat a good Long Beach State team.  Long Beach’s OOC schedule was so brutal, that had they won last night I think they would have been in a position to play their way inside the bubble despite only being 6-7.  They already have wins against Kansas State and Xavier, and to tack on another notable win away from home with a brutal OOC schedule, that may have been enough to get them into the field if they ran away with the Big West Conference.  Saint John’s continues to look better and better and better as the season goes on.

-Wofford is good, but was blown to bits by West Virginia.  I’m not surprised the Mountaineers won, but I’m a little surprised they won so handily against a pretty good Wofford team.

-Wisconsin won another road game.  They beat a pretty good Cal team, and continue to look like a #1 seed caliber team.

-Tulane came in to Washington last night with a bloated record, but it wasn’t that eye catching since their schedule had been so weak.  They actually played really well against the Huskies last night, though, and led for a good portion of the game.  Perhaps they’re going to be a force in the American.  Unfortunately for them they almost needed last night’s win because the rest of their profile is not impressive.

-Nebraska continues to look like Nebraska did before Tim Miles got there.  They, once again, lost a game to a team that isn’t likely to make the NCAA Tournament.  Hawai’i took them down 66-58  They really needed that one because they have now been relegated to the loser’s bracket of the Diamondhead Classic.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-GEORGE WASHINGTON VS COLORADO (Diamondhead Classic).  This is a game between two teams with potential, but that have not lived up to that potential just yet.  It has a pivotal feel to it as both teams really need notable wins.

-NJIT AT VILLANOVA.  It’s a buy game, but NJIT’s postseason hopes can go through the roof if they pull off the upset.  Having said that, Nova’s hopes for a #1 seed can fall through the floor if they allow that to happen.

-STANFORD AT TEXAS.  Texas is very strong this year and can add another decent win to their profile, whereas Stanford needs some meet on their resume.

-HOLY CROSS AT PITTSBURGH.  Holy Cross has been disappointing lately after looking so good in the first part of November.  Still, they’re not a team that Pitt can just overlook.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT NC STATE.  LA Tech is out of strikes.  They need to win this game, and pretty much win out, if they want to land safely inside the bubble.

-GEORGIA TECH AT DAYTON.  This is a rather bubblicious looking game as both teams come in at 8-2, but Dayton has lost a key player for the season and Georgia Tech is playing in just their second true road game.

-WICHITA STATE AT HAWAII (Diamondhead Classic).  Hawai’i is a respectable 6-1 at home this season and is coming off a win against Nebraska.  Wichita is good, but they need to be on upset alert.

-NEW MEXICO AT GRAND CANYON.  I wasn’t too excited about New Mexico this year, but a win gets them to 9-3 and makes htem 3-0 on the road.

-HOUSTON AT TEXAS TECH.  Texas Tech can improve to 10-2, but all ten wins will have come at home.

-ARIZONA AT UNLV.  Arizona again walks into a snake pit to take on a pretty good UNLV team who needs a notable win, and is unbeaten at home.

-BOISE STATE VS LOYOLA IL (Las Vegas Classic).  Both teams have just two losses and can pick up what could turn out to be a notable neutral floor win.

-CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE AT LOUISVILLE.  Buy game.

-WAGNER AT CINCINNATI.  Buy game.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Tuesday, December 23, 2014 — Florida Gulf Coast at Iona

Florida Gulf Coast at Iona, 2:00 PM Eastern, No TV

New Rochelle, New York is the final stop for the UTR Game of the Day before we take a three day break for the holiday.  Today, the Metro Atlantic’s best team so far, the Iona Gaels, will be hosting the Atlantic Sun’s top team, Florida Gulf Coast, in one of the top non-conference matchups between Under the Radar teams so far this season.  Unfortunately, the only way to watch the game is to subscribe to Iona’s pay-per-view webstreaming package.

Iona’s record so far only sits at 6-4 (1-1 in early MAAC play).  However, their KenPom rating is easily the best in their conference at 91.  The Gaels have lost to Wofford and Arkansas, both of which are respectable losses.  They also have lost a conference game to Monmouth and are coming off a non-conference loss at George Mason.  Those two losses alone have probably killed any chance for the Gaels to be in the at-large bid discussion should they need one, though if they can dominate their league play and pick up wins today and in their last two non-conference games at Drexel and UMass, they may still be good enough to be on the bubble.  A.J. English and David Laury are the two players to keep an eye on for the Gaels.

Florida Gulf Coast was one of our top UTR teams early this season, with huge home wins over Ohio U and UC-Santa Barbara.  While the Eagles are 9-2, they only enter today’s game with a 123 KenPom ratings, thanks in part to a bad home loss to Florida International.  The good news for FGCU is they will have the chances to make an at-large bid case over the next two weeks.  In addition to today’s  game at Iona, they still have contests at Xavier, at Pittsburgh and at UC-Santa Barbara left before league play starts.  Winning three of these four games and running through the A-Sun will probably have this team sitting fairly confident even if something crazy happens in their conference tournament.  Losing today would, however, not be a good start on that.  The two players to watch on Gulf Coast are their outstanding guard combo of Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson, both of whom most should remember from the Sweet 16 team two years ago.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, December 22, 2014: Incarnate Word at Tulsa

For our latest Bracket Racket, CLICK HERE!

Incarnate Word at Tulsa, 8:00 PM Eastern, espn3

When choosing the UTR Game of the Day, there are times when I have to resist one game in order to put up another.  Tonight, the logical choice would have clearly been Northeastern’s cross-country road trip to take on the St. Mary’s Gaels, and for that reason I was supposed to resist what I am actually doing here and write about that game.  However, there are times when a game is just so appetizing, I give in to temptation and write about it anyhow.  So my apologies to Huskies and Gaels fans, but your game has taken the backseat tonight.

At 8:00 PM Eastern, the Southland Conference’s Incarnate Word Cardinals will be traveling up from San Antonio to visit a school located right on historic Route 66 (in fact I would recommend the Route 66 Diner right in the shadow of the football stadium for some good eats), Frank Haith’s Tulsa Golden Hurricane.  UIW has been one of the surprising stories so far this year with an 8-1 record and a top 50 RPI, for whatever weight you give that rating this early in the year.  Their lone loss came at UTEP, and their wins include a huge road upset over Nebraska.  The Cardinals are coming off of a thrilling triple overtime win at UMKC over the weekend and are looking to keep their winning ways going tonight in Tulsa.  The only drawback on the season for UIW is the fact that they are only in their second of four transitional years and therefore ineligible for the NCAA or NIT tournaments.  However, the CBI or CIT could come calling, and if UIW keeps winning, there is no reason why one of those tournaments would not.

Tulsa has been the complete opposite of UIW so far this year.  In a season where almost every key player from last year’s NCAA tournament team returned, we thought the Golden Hurricane had a chance to compete in a weakened AAC.  Instead, new head coach Frank Haith has been continuing the fine work he previously did at Miami and Missouri, promptly turning a good team into a bad one.  Tulsa opened the season with a loss to cross-town rival Oral Roberts and has gotten blown out by in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  To make things worse, the Golden Hurricane registered a three point loss to non-Division I Southeast Oklahoma State — a loss that simply should never happen to a team that believes it is in a major conference.  That loss alone was enough to make Tulsa eligible for the UTR Game of the Day despite the AAC not technically being an Under the Radar conference.  Regarding tonight’s game, it is tough to believe that a team that loses at home to Southeast Oklahoma State has much of a chance at home against a UIW team that has proven it can win on the road — but a win by the Golden Hurricane would not be totally crazy.  In any event, if Tulsa wants to turn their season around before conference play starts next week, a win tonight may be mandatory.

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