Highlighted Games for Sunday, Dec 28th

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the day – CLICK HERE

 

-SAINT JOHN’S VS TULANE.  Tulane has a bloated record, but all their wins have come against weak teams.  They did look pretty good against Washington earlier in the week, though, so this is a chance for them to pick up their first notable win.

-NJIT AT LAFAYETTE.  Our adopted team has a tough road test against a Lafayette team that’s been a little better than expected, and is currently unbeaten at home.

-LONG BEACH STATE AT SYRACUSE.  We keep saying it, but Long Beach has a few notable wins and no real bad losses.  Despite their currently poor record, if they can pick up another notable win and then run roughshod over the Big West, they may end up inside the bubble.

-HARVARD AT ARIZONA STATE.  Interesting match up between a Harvard team that may be challenged by Yale in conference play and could use a notable win like this, and an Arizona State team that’s trying to establish themselves.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA.  South Dakota State has looked like one of the better teams in the Summit League, but they’re probably in over their heads today against a top 25 Northern Iowa team.

-FLORIDA GULF COAST AT XAVIER.  It’s a buy game, but it’s an interesting one.  If FGCU wants any shot at landing inside the bubble and not needing the automatic bid, this is a game they pretty much have to win.  Xavier is currently outside the bubble, but will get their chances in conference to prove themselves if they are good enough.

-BELMONT AT BUTLER.  Interesting match up between a Butler team that has slid a little bit since opening the season so strongly, and a Belmont team has also slid, but is still having a good year overall.

-UCLA AT ALABAMA.  Both teams have good records, but need notable wins.

-COPPIN STATE AT EVANSVILLE.  A win gets the Aces to 10-2.

-BUFFALO AT WISCONSIN.  Buffalo has just two losses, and one of those was against Kentucky, who they played pretty well against.  Wisconsin is good enough to contend for a #1 seed, though, so this is a very tall order.

-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT AT CONNECTICUT.  Buy game.  Central Connecticut looked they were going to be one of the best teams in the NEC prior to losing a key player just before the start of the season.

-MORGAN STATE AT MARQUETTE.  Buy game.

-NORTHWESTERN STATE AT ARKANSAS.  Buy game.

-DELAWARE STATE AT TEMPLE.  Buy game.  This may not continue, but I believe Temple is currently on the bubble.

-STONY BROOK AT WASHINGTON.  Buy game.  Stony Brook may be the best team in the America East, but they’re probably way overmatched today.

-CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD AT CALIFORNIA.  Buy game.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Sunday, December 28, 2014: US Coast Guard at Army

United States Coast Guard Academy at Army, 3:00 PM Eastern, free streaming at patriotleague.org

A battle between two service academies always comes with extra energy and passion beyond the relative talent and abilities of the athletes for both schools.  When Army and Navy meet on the football field every year, records do not count.  The only thing that matters is who wins the game.  While this season, as always, Army and Navy will meet at least twice in hoops during Patriot League play, the Cadets from West Point will get to take on the service academy from another branch of our armed forces this afternoon, the Division III U.S. Coast Guard Academy.

The USCG Bears actually opened the regular season television schedule this season when they played Hampden-Sydney in the Armed Forces Classic in Puerto Rico.  While they fell in that game, the Bears have played .500 ball since then and enter today’s contest at 4-5 on the season.  They are being led by junior guard Kevin Alvarez, who is averaging 15.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, and senior forward David Anderson, who is averaging 12.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.  Of course, they have their work cut out for them this afternoon with the Army Black Knights.

Army enters today’s game at 8-2 on the season, including wins over Air Force and VMI at home, plus a road win at USC.  Their two losses came at Duke and in an upset home loss to Bryant.  With a sub-150 KenPom rating, Army certainly has not done enough in non-conference play to be an at-large bid contender, but the Black Knights appear do poised to seriously contend for the Patriot League title this year (conference play starts on Wednesday).

Army is one of five teams to have been a member of Division I since 1948 without ever playing in the NCAA tournament.  As we have noted here before, unlike the other four teams (Northwestern, William & Mary, The Citadel and St. Francis(BK)), Army did get an invite to the Big Dance back in 1966, but head coach Bobby Knight turned down the bid in order to take his team, including a guard by the name of Mike Krzyzewski, into the NIT.  That guard went on to coach the Cadets to the NIT in 1978 as well, the last time this team played in the postseason.  He then left Army and went on to have a fairly decent coaching career at some ACC school.

Army appears to be well on their way to a postseason bid this season, if not by winning the Patriot League’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, then potentially in one of the smaller tournaments such as the CIT.  Either way, head coach Zach Spiker has done an amazing job turning a perennial Patriot League doormat into a legitimate contender.  The Black Knights have certainly surpassed Navy, at least this year.  But before they move on to Navy and the rest of their conference schedule, Army has one last test to get by — and they should definitely not look past another service academy this afternoon.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Saturday, December 27, 2014: Georgia State at Green Bay

For the rest of today’s action, CLICK HERE.

Georgia State at Green Bay, 1:00 PM, espn3

The game of the day on Saturday is obviously Kentucky at Louisville.  But if you want something else to keep an eye on during that contest, you may want to tune in to today’s UTR Game of the Day.  The Georgia State Panthers, led by Ryan Harrow, R.J. Hunter and former Louisville player Kevin Ware will be heading to Green Bay to take on the Phoenix, led by star player Keifer Sykes.  These two teams have consistently been among the Top Ten Under the Radar teams all season and it should be a great game this afternoon.

Georgia State enters with a record of 7-3, an RPI of 51 and a KenPom of 63.  Their sole losses so far this year have been to tournament-caliber teams Iowa State, Colorado State and Old Dominion.  The biggest problem the Panthers have is a lack of quality wins and a lack of a chance to pick up any more after today with the Sun Belt Conference looking weaker than normal this year.  They did, however, beat Green Bay at home handily 72-48 back on December 4, and a sweep of their home-and-home series this year will help a lot if they need an at-large bid in March.

Green Bay has a similar problem as they head into Horizon League play.  The Phoenix are 9-3 on the season with an RPI of 38 and a KenPom of 48.  In addition to the loss at Georgia State, the Phoenix lost an early season game at Wisconsin and are coming off a tough neutral court loss in Las Vegas to UC-Irvine.  The Horizon League does appear stronger than the Sun Belt, though no other team is currently better than 100 in the KenPom ratings.  Green Bay can hang their hats on a nice road win at Miami, at least, but getting swept by Georgia State will hurt if they falter in their conference tournament.

Both teams in today’s game are well aware of what happens when you slip up during conference tournament play, as Green Bay and Georgia State both dominated their conference regular seasons last year, only to fail to capture the automatic bid.  The result, in both cases, was an NIT bid.  Both teams appear better than the NIT this season, but need to keep winning if they want to Dance.  Today’s game is the start of that journey.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Dec 27th

NOTES

-George Washington had themselves a fantastic Christmas by winning the Diamondhead Classic, and picking up a huge win against Wichita State in the championship game.  The three wins away from home against Ohio, Colorado and Wichita drastically improves their profile.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES 

-KENTUCKY AT LOUISVILLE (Spotlight Game).  You start to get the sense that if Louisville doesn’t beat Kentucky than no one will.  Kentucky has played and beaten several ranked teams rather handily already, but this will likely be their biggest test of the year.  It’s a huge rivalry game between two unbeaten teams that are hoping to end up as #1 seeds.  Kentucky has won six of the last seven, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament, so as far as the rivalry goes Louisville may be feeling a little bit of pressure in regards to needing to catch up.  It should be a fun one.

-GEORGETOWN VS INDIANA.  These two are squaring off in Madison Square Garden.  Both look like tournament caliber teams, and both can add a notable win to their profile.

-GEORGIA STATE AT GREEN BAY.  This is the second meeting between these two with Georgia State winning the first in a blowout.  Both teams are good, but it will be very difficult for either to finish inside the bubble, so it’s a game both need to win if they want any chance of that happening.

-SANTA CLARA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  It’s the conference opener.  SMC has played really well at times this year, but has also been inconsistent and needs a strong showing in league play to have any chance of making the field.

-GONZAGA AT BYU (West Coast).  It’s the league opener, and it features the two best teams.  BYU needs some notable wins to end up safely inside the bubble, and Gonzaga needs a big road win like this to help their case of being a #1 seed.

-COLORADO STATE AT NEW MEXICO STATE.  New Mexico State has had a rough start, but they are a tough team to beat at home, so it would end up being a somewhat notable win for Colorado State, who is looking to remain unbeaten.

-UAB AT NORTH CAROLINA.  It’s technically not a buy game, and UAB actually won last year’s meeting, but this game will seem like a buy game.

-MAINE AT SETON HALL.  Buy game.  The Pirates can improve to 10-2.

-UNC WILMINGTON AT MINNESOTA.  Buy game.

-OAKLAND AT MARYLAND.  Buy game.

-MERCER AT GEORGIA.  Buy game.

-WRIGHT STATE AT OHIO STATE.  Buy game.

-KENNESAW STATE AT ILLINOIS.  Buy game

-SOUTHERN UTAH AT UNLV.  Buy game

-SAN DIEGO CHRISTIAN (nondiv1) AT SAN DIEGO STATE.  Buy game.

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Bracket Projections for Wednesday, December 24th

BRACKET NOTES

-Bracket projections reflect games played through December 23rd, 2014

-This is a CHECKPOINT of the present, not a FORECAST of the future.  In other words, this is what we feel the bracket would look like if the season ended today, and not what we think it will look like in March.  Furthermore, we expect it to look very different in March.

-Teams that were considered, but are not in (and some will undoubtedly surprise you): Iowa, Texas, A&M, Loyola IL, Illinois State, Providence, Penn State, Evansville, Davidson, North Carolina State, Georgia, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Minnesota, George Washington, Harvard, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, Oregon, Xavier, Saint Mary’s, UTEP

-This is the first bracket where we have tried to go strictly off the data, and no preseason assumptions.  With that said, Syracuse is probably the most egregious omission.  But, they’ve done absolutely nothing away from home other than beat Iowa on a neutral floor, and they’ve done very little else at home.  Iowa isn’t much better, but they did get a big win at North Carolina.

-TCU is currently the last team in the bracket.  They have done absolutely nothing, and the only reason we are projecting them in is because they are currently in the rankings.  I don’t think we’ll see them in there at the end.

-Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Yale and Green Bay may be among the teams that appear to be seeded higher than you would expect, but look at their body of work.  Old Dominion has beaten VCU, LSU on a neutral site, and Georgia State.  Not too bad.  I still don’t expect Yale to win the Ivy League, much less end up on the #9 line, but as of now they’ve won at UConn and at Kent State, who is tough to beat at hme, and really don’t have bad losses other than at Quinnipiac.

-Long story short, it’s a mess.  It’s more about getting in the habit of evaluating teams than anything else.  This isn’t what it will look like in March.  We know this isn’t what it will look like in March.  We also know this is very easy to pick apart.  So, on that note, HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!!!!  I hope everyone has a safe and happy much needed holiday season!

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It’s a few days old, but CLICK HERE for our latest BRACKET RACKET video podcast

 

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Highlighted Games and Puppet Ramblings for Tuesday, Dec 23rd

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Iona and FGCU, CLICK HERE

-Our new Bracket Projections will be posted after today’s games.

PUPPET RAMBLINGS

-The unexpected not only continues to happen, but continues to happen in unexpected ways.  Two nights ago, Eastern Kentucky blasted Miami FL out of their own arena.  EKU winning was unexpected.  EKU winning by 28 was them winning in an unexpected way.  They followed up that great win with a loss at Florida Atlantic, who is unbeaten at home, but is still the kind of game you’d expect EKU to win, especially after what they did to Miami just a few nights ago.

Speaking of Miami, their big win at Florida isn’t looking so big, so you have to wonder if there will be a place for them in the bracket at all.  They ended up losing rather handily to Providence last night.

-Temple beat Kansas.  That was unexpected.  But furthermore, Temple literally curb stomped them.  A 77-52 final.  This improves Temple to 8-4, and none of their losses other than Saint Joe’s are all that bad.  Perhaps they’re playing their way toward the bubble.

-Texas Southern won at Michigan State the other night.  I’m not sure, but I think it was mentioned on the latest Bracket Racket Podcast.  You can watch and/or listen to that by CLICKING HERE.  

-Green Bay, a team we like and are really trying to promote as a potential at-large caliber team, is making that next to impossible.  They fell on a neutral floor to a UC Irvine team that is good by Big West standards, but not by at-large bid standards, and those are the kinds of games teams simply cannot lose if they want to make the case they belong inside the bubble.

-Colorado State remains unbeaten and has cracked the rankings.  I believe it is well deserved.  It’s also time for their fans to start showing up at the games.  TCU is also unbeaten and in the rankings.  I do not believe this to be deserved at all seeing as how other than their win at Ole Miss not a single win came against a team that is likely to make a postseason tournament unless they buy tickets.  This will take care of itself, though.  If they’re good enough, they’ll win in conference and stay there.  If if they’re not, they will lose badly and fall off the face of the Earth.  I must admit, though, for a program that has been very poor for a very long time, at least they’ve managed to build up some momentum.

-Old Dominion is not in the rankings, but certainly should be.  They improved to 10-1 last night with their win over William & Mary.  They have managed wins against VCU, LSU and Georgia State, which is far more than TCU has done.

-Saint John’s handily beat a good Long Beach State team.  Long Beach’s OOC schedule was so brutal, that had they won last night I think they would have been in a position to play their way inside the bubble despite only being 6-7.  They already have wins against Kansas State and Xavier, and to tack on another notable win away from home with a brutal OOC schedule, that may have been enough to get them into the field if they ran away with the Big West Conference.  Saint John’s continues to look better and better and better as the season goes on.

-Wofford is good, but was blown to bits by West Virginia.  I’m not surprised the Mountaineers won, but I’m a little surprised they won so handily against a pretty good Wofford team.

-Wisconsin won another road game.  They beat a pretty good Cal team, and continue to look like a #1 seed caliber team.

-Tulane came in to Washington last night with a bloated record, but it wasn’t that eye catching since their schedule had been so weak.  They actually played really well against the Huskies last night, though, and led for a good portion of the game.  Perhaps they’re going to be a force in the American.  Unfortunately for them they almost needed last night’s win because the rest of their profile is not impressive.

-Nebraska continues to look like Nebraska did before Tim Miles got there.  They, once again, lost a game to a team that isn’t likely to make the NCAA Tournament.  Hawai’i took them down 66-58  They really needed that one because they have now been relegated to the loser’s bracket of the Diamondhead Classic.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-GEORGE WASHINGTON VS COLORADO (Diamondhead Classic).  This is a game between two teams with potential, but that have not lived up to that potential just yet.  It has a pivotal feel to it as both teams really need notable wins.

-NJIT AT VILLANOVA.  It’s a buy game, but NJIT’s postseason hopes can go through the roof if they pull off the upset.  Having said that, Nova’s hopes for a #1 seed can fall through the floor if they allow that to happen.

-STANFORD AT TEXAS.  Texas is very strong this year and can add another decent win to their profile, whereas Stanford needs some meet on their resume.

-HOLY CROSS AT PITTSBURGH.  Holy Cross has been disappointing lately after looking so good in the first part of November.  Still, they’re not a team that Pitt can just overlook.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT NC STATE.  LA Tech is out of strikes.  They need to win this game, and pretty much win out, if they want to land safely inside the bubble.

-GEORGIA TECH AT DAYTON.  This is a rather bubblicious looking game as both teams come in at 8-2, but Dayton has lost a key player for the season and Georgia Tech is playing in just their second true road game.

-WICHITA STATE AT HAWAII (Diamondhead Classic).  Hawai’i is a respectable 6-1 at home this season and is coming off a win against Nebraska.  Wichita is good, but they need to be on upset alert.

-NEW MEXICO AT GRAND CANYON.  I wasn’t too excited about New Mexico this year, but a win gets them to 9-3 and makes htem 3-0 on the road.

-HOUSTON AT TEXAS TECH.  Texas Tech can improve to 10-2, but all ten wins will have come at home.

-ARIZONA AT UNLV.  Arizona again walks into a snake pit to take on a pretty good UNLV team who needs a notable win, and is unbeaten at home.

-BOISE STATE VS LOYOLA IL (Las Vegas Classic).  Both teams have just two losses and can pick up what could turn out to be a notable neutral floor win.

-CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE AT LOUISVILLE.  Buy game.

-WAGNER AT CINCINNATI.  Buy game.

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