Bracket Projections for Wednesday, December 24th

BRACKET NOTES

-Bracket projections reflect games played through December 23rd, 2014

-This is a CHECKPOINT of the present, not a FORECAST of the future.  In other words, this is what we feel the bracket would look like if the season ended today, and not what we think it will look like in March.  Furthermore, we expect it to look very different in March.

-Teams that were considered, but are not in (and some will undoubtedly surprise you): Iowa, Texas, A&M, Loyola IL, Illinois State, Providence, Penn State, Evansville, Davidson, North Carolina State, Georgia, Syracuse, Seton Hall, Minnesota, George Washington, Harvard, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, Oregon, Xavier, Saint Mary’s, UTEP

-This is the first bracket where we have tried to go strictly off the data, and no preseason assumptions.  With that said, Syracuse is probably the most egregious omission.  But, they’ve done absolutely nothing away from home other than beat Iowa on a neutral floor, and they’ve done very little else at home.  Iowa isn’t much better, but they did get a big win at North Carolina.

-TCU is currently the last team in the bracket.  They have done absolutely nothing, and the only reason we are projecting them in is because they are currently in the rankings.  I don’t think we’ll see them in there at the end.

-Old Dominion, Northern Iowa, Yale and Green Bay may be among the teams that appear to be seeded higher than you would expect, but look at their body of work.  Old Dominion has beaten VCU, LSU on a neutral site, and Georgia State.  Not too bad.  I still don’t expect Yale to win the Ivy League, much less end up on the #9 line, but as of now they’ve won at UConn and at Kent State, who is tough to beat at hme, and really don’t have bad losses other than at Quinnipiac.

-Long story short, it’s a mess.  It’s more about getting in the habit of evaluating teams than anything else.  This isn’t what it will look like in March.  We know this isn’t what it will look like in March.  We also know this is very easy to pick apart.  So, on that note, HAPPY HOLIDAYS EVERYONE!!!!  I hope everyone has a safe and happy much needed holiday season!

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It’s a few days old, but CLICK HERE for our latest BRACKET RACKET video podcast

 

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Highlighted Games and Puppet Ramblings for Tuesday, Dec 23rd

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Iona and FGCU, CLICK HERE

-Our new Bracket Projections will be posted after today’s games.

PUPPET RAMBLINGS

-The unexpected not only continues to happen, but continues to happen in unexpected ways.  Two nights ago, Eastern Kentucky blasted Miami FL out of their own arena.  EKU winning was unexpected.  EKU winning by 28 was them winning in an unexpected way.  They followed up that great win with a loss at Florida Atlantic, who is unbeaten at home, but is still the kind of game you’d expect EKU to win, especially after what they did to Miami just a few nights ago.

Speaking of Miami, their big win at Florida isn’t looking so big, so you have to wonder if there will be a place for them in the bracket at all.  They ended up losing rather handily to Providence last night.

-Temple beat Kansas.  That was unexpected.  But furthermore, Temple literally curb stomped them.  A 77-52 final.  This improves Temple to 8-4, and none of their losses other than Saint Joe’s are all that bad.  Perhaps they’re playing their way toward the bubble.

-Texas Southern won at Michigan State the other night.  I’m not sure, but I think it was mentioned on the latest Bracket Racket Podcast.  You can watch and/or listen to that by CLICKING HERE.  

-Green Bay, a team we like and are really trying to promote as a potential at-large caliber team, is making that next to impossible.  They fell on a neutral floor to a UC Irvine team that is good by Big West standards, but not by at-large bid standards, and those are the kinds of games teams simply cannot lose if they want to make the case they belong inside the bubble.

-Colorado State remains unbeaten and has cracked the rankings.  I believe it is well deserved.  It’s also time for their fans to start showing up at the games.  TCU is also unbeaten and in the rankings.  I do not believe this to be deserved at all seeing as how other than their win at Ole Miss not a single win came against a team that is likely to make a postseason tournament unless they buy tickets.  This will take care of itself, though.  If they’re good enough, they’ll win in conference and stay there.  If if they’re not, they will lose badly and fall off the face of the Earth.  I must admit, though, for a program that has been very poor for a very long time, at least they’ve managed to build up some momentum.

-Old Dominion is not in the rankings, but certainly should be.  They improved to 10-1 last night with their win over William & Mary.  They have managed wins against VCU, LSU and Georgia State, which is far more than TCU has done.

-Saint John’s handily beat a good Long Beach State team.  Long Beach’s OOC schedule was so brutal, that had they won last night I think they would have been in a position to play their way inside the bubble despite only being 6-7.  They already have wins against Kansas State and Xavier, and to tack on another notable win away from home with a brutal OOC schedule, that may have been enough to get them into the field if they ran away with the Big West Conference.  Saint John’s continues to look better and better and better as the season goes on.

-Wofford is good, but was blown to bits by West Virginia.  I’m not surprised the Mountaineers won, but I’m a little surprised they won so handily against a pretty good Wofford team.

-Wisconsin won another road game.  They beat a pretty good Cal team, and continue to look like a #1 seed caliber team.

-Tulane came in to Washington last night with a bloated record, but it wasn’t that eye catching since their schedule had been so weak.  They actually played really well against the Huskies last night, though, and led for a good portion of the game.  Perhaps they’re going to be a force in the American.  Unfortunately for them they almost needed last night’s win because the rest of their profile is not impressive.

-Nebraska continues to look like Nebraska did before Tim Miles got there.  They, once again, lost a game to a team that isn’t likely to make the NCAA Tournament.  Hawai’i took them down 66-58  They really needed that one because they have now been relegated to the loser’s bracket of the Diamondhead Classic.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-GEORGE WASHINGTON VS COLORADO (Diamondhead Classic).  This is a game between two teams with potential, but that have not lived up to that potential just yet.  It has a pivotal feel to it as both teams really need notable wins.

-NJIT AT VILLANOVA.  It’s a buy game, but NJIT’s postseason hopes can go through the roof if they pull off the upset.  Having said that, Nova’s hopes for a #1 seed can fall through the floor if they allow that to happen.

-STANFORD AT TEXAS.  Texas is very strong this year and can add another decent win to their profile, whereas Stanford needs some meet on their resume.

-HOLY CROSS AT PITTSBURGH.  Holy Cross has been disappointing lately after looking so good in the first part of November.  Still, they’re not a team that Pitt can just overlook.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT NC STATE.  LA Tech is out of strikes.  They need to win this game, and pretty much win out, if they want to land safely inside the bubble.

-GEORGIA TECH AT DAYTON.  This is a rather bubblicious looking game as both teams come in at 8-2, but Dayton has lost a key player for the season and Georgia Tech is playing in just their second true road game.

-WICHITA STATE AT HAWAII (Diamondhead Classic).  Hawai’i is a respectable 6-1 at home this season and is coming off a win against Nebraska.  Wichita is good, but they need to be on upset alert.

-NEW MEXICO AT GRAND CANYON.  I wasn’t too excited about New Mexico this year, but a win gets them to 9-3 and makes htem 3-0 on the road.

-HOUSTON AT TEXAS TECH.  Texas Tech can improve to 10-2, but all ten wins will have come at home.

-ARIZONA AT UNLV.  Arizona again walks into a snake pit to take on a pretty good UNLV team who needs a notable win, and is unbeaten at home.

-BOISE STATE VS LOYOLA IL (Las Vegas Classic).  Both teams have just two losses and can pick up what could turn out to be a notable neutral floor win.

-CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE AT LOUISVILLE.  Buy game.

-WAGNER AT CINCINNATI.  Buy game.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Tuesday, December 23, 2014 — Florida Gulf Coast at Iona

Florida Gulf Coast at Iona, 2:00 PM Eastern, No TV

New Rochelle, New York is the final stop for the UTR Game of the Day before we take a three day break for the holiday.  Today, the Metro Atlantic’s best team so far, the Iona Gaels, will be hosting the Atlantic Sun’s top team, Florida Gulf Coast, in one of the top non-conference matchups between Under the Radar teams so far this season.  Unfortunately, the only way to watch the game is to subscribe to Iona’s pay-per-view webstreaming package.

Iona’s record so far only sits at 6-4 (1-1 in early MAAC play).  However, their KenPom rating is easily the best in their conference at 91.  The Gaels have lost to Wofford and Arkansas, both of which are respectable losses.  They also have lost a conference game to Monmouth and are coming off a non-conference loss at George Mason.  Those two losses alone have probably killed any chance for the Gaels to be in the at-large bid discussion should they need one, though if they can dominate their league play and pick up wins today and in their last two non-conference games at Drexel and UMass, they may still be good enough to be on the bubble.  A.J. English and David Laury are the two players to keep an eye on for the Gaels.

Florida Gulf Coast was one of our top UTR teams early this season, with huge home wins over Ohio U and UC-Santa Barbara.  While the Eagles are 9-2, they only enter today’s game with a 123 KenPom ratings, thanks in part to a bad home loss to Florida International.  The good news for FGCU is they will have the chances to make an at-large bid case over the next two weeks.  In addition to today’s  game at Iona, they still have contests at Xavier, at Pittsburgh and at UC-Santa Barbara left before league play starts.  Winning three of these four games and running through the A-Sun will probably have this team sitting fairly confident even if something crazy happens in their conference tournament.  Losing today would, however, not be a good start on that.  The two players to watch on Gulf Coast are their outstanding guard combo of Brett Comer and Bernard Thompson, both of whom most should remember from the Sweet 16 team two years ago.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day – Monday, December 22, 2014: Incarnate Word at Tulsa

For our latest Bracket Racket, CLICK HERE!

Incarnate Word at Tulsa, 8:00 PM Eastern, espn3

When choosing the UTR Game of the Day, there are times when I have to resist one game in order to put up another.  Tonight, the logical choice would have clearly been Northeastern’s cross-country road trip to take on the St. Mary’s Gaels, and for that reason I was supposed to resist what I am actually doing here and write about that game.  However, there are times when a game is just so appetizing, I give in to temptation and write about it anyhow.  So my apologies to Huskies and Gaels fans, but your game has taken the backseat tonight.

At 8:00 PM Eastern, the Southland Conference’s Incarnate Word Cardinals will be traveling up from San Antonio to visit a school located right on historic Route 66 (in fact I would recommend the Route 66 Diner right in the shadow of the football stadium for some good eats), Frank Haith’s Tulsa Golden Hurricane.  UIW has been one of the surprising stories so far this year with an 8-1 record and a top 50 RPI, for whatever weight you give that rating this early in the year.  Their lone loss came at UTEP, and their wins include a huge road upset over Nebraska.  The Cardinals are coming off of a thrilling triple overtime win at UMKC over the weekend and are looking to keep their winning ways going tonight in Tulsa.  The only drawback on the season for UIW is the fact that they are only in their second of four transitional years and therefore ineligible for the NCAA or NIT tournaments.  However, the CBI or CIT could come calling, and if UIW keeps winning, there is no reason why one of those tournaments would not.

Tulsa has been the complete opposite of UIW so far this year.  In a season where almost every key player from last year’s NCAA tournament team returned, we thought the Golden Hurricane had a chance to compete in a weakened AAC.  Instead, new head coach Frank Haith has been continuing the fine work he previously did at Miami and Missouri, promptly turning a good team into a bad one.  Tulsa opened the season with a loss to cross-town rival Oral Roberts and has gotten blown out by in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  To make things worse, the Golden Hurricane registered a three point loss to non-Division I Southeast Oklahoma State — a loss that simply should never happen to a team that believes it is in a major conference.  That loss alone was enough to make Tulsa eligible for the UTR Game of the Day despite the AAC not technically being an Under the Radar conference.  Regarding tonight’s game, it is tough to believe that a team that loses at home to Southeast Oklahoma State has much of a chance at home against a UIW team that has proven it can win on the road — but a win by the Golden Hurricane would not be totally crazy.  In any event, if Tulsa wants to turn their season around before conference play starts next week, a win tonight may be mandatory.

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Bracket Racket: Dec 21st

Here is our latest Bracket Racket video podcast.  Chad, Kyle and David look back at this past week’s games, and then go through each of the major conferences discussing where we feel the teams currently stand.  They also look ahead to this week’s upcoming action….

 

And for all you radio lovers out there, below is an mp3 version of the show

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Highlighted Games for Sunday, Dec 21st

-SOUTH POINT HOLIDAY HOOPS CLASSIC.  To read all about these games, CLICK HERE to check out Chad’s UTR game of the day...

-HARVARD AT VIRGINIA.  Harvard doesn’t always play up to their ceiling, but they are the equivalent of a #8 or #9 seeded team.  Virginia is about the equivalent of a #1 or #2 seeded team, so this is the kind of match up you’d see ion the round of 32.  If Harvard wins, it will catapult their resume, but a loss really won’t hurt them.

-OREGON STATE QT QUINNIPIAC.  Oregon State is off to an 8-2 start.  They have not been close to an NIT caliber team in recent years, but it’s still kind of strange to see them play this kind of road game.

-MARYLAND AT OKLAHOMA STATE.  Both teams have been impressive with just one loss, but Oklahoma State still hasn’t been strongly tested yet.  For Maryland, it is their first true road game.  Both teams have a chance to add something to their profile.

-CREIGHTON AT NORTH TEXAS.  If you’re a solid tournament team, you need to beat non-NIT teams on the road.  Creighton needs to win this.

-ALABAMA STATE AT EVANSVILLE.  Buy game.  The Aces have just two losses.

-SETON HALL AT GEORGIA.  A win for Seton Hall gets them to 10-1, as well as their second true road win of the season.  Georgia has struggled this year, but they are unbeaten at home.

 

OTHER NOTES AND RAMBLINGS

-Be sure and catch our latest Bracket Racket tonight.  The new Bracket Projections should also be updated either tonight or tomorrow.

-Just about every university is now on Christmas Break.  This means that the four hour a day, and twenty hour a week practice rules are no longer in effect.  Teams can go for eight hours a day, and sixty hours a week if they want to.  Over the next few weeks, you’ll probably notice a lot of teams working out the rust and becoming better.

-Speaking of rust, UCLA…..oh, forget it.  They’ve been beaten up on enough.

-Louisville plays Cal State Northridge this Tuesday.  That normally wouldn’t be important, but in this case it is because Montrezi Harrell was thrown out of Louisville’s game against Western Kentucky after a scramble for a loose ball escalated into a punch being thrown.  What’s worse is that one of the referees was inadvertently struck.  So, Harrell will miss the game against Northridge per the flagrant foul 2 rule, but will be back against Kentucky.

-Indiana got a big win over Butler.  Butler isn’t great, and was probably overrated, but I still believe them to be a tournament caliber team.  When you beat tournament caliber teams away from home, chances are you’re a tournament caliber team yourself.  I never thought I’d say this about the Hoosiers a month ago, but I was wrong.  They do appear to be a tournament caliber team.

-Also making the list of things I didn’t think I’d be saying a month ago, Washington is unbeaten, and is not only a tournament caliber team, but a legit top 25 team.  They almost blew it after leading for most of the game, but they beat a very good Oklahoma team on a neutral floor yesterday.  It’s their second win against a ranked team this year.

-Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin missed yesterday’s game against VCU due to him having an unruptured aneurysm.  This is a very unsettling thought because once an aneurysm does rupture, it is oftentimes fatal.  His team lost rather handily, but that pales in comparison to what is legitimately a serious health issue.  We oftentimes poke fun at coaches, and we’ve certainly had our fun with him, but the key word there is “FUN.”  We sincerely wish him the best and hope that he is able to recover and return to the bench soon.  Fortunately it was discovered before it became far more serious.

-Speaking of VCU, November is now over.  This is a team that typically loses more games in November than in the rest of the season combined, with the exception of last year.  So, don’t be surprised if they really get on a roll.

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