Conference Preview: SEC

Posted on November 13, 2014 by Chad

There is bad news and good news for the SEC.  The bad news is that the last time the conference had more than five teams in the NCAA tournament was 2008.  Further, since ’08, the SEC had five teams in the field just once, in 2011.  Last season the SEC only placed three teams into the Big Dance, 1 seed Florida, 8 seed Kentucky and 11 seed Tennessee which was sent to Dayton to play in the First Four.  In short, top to bottom, the SEC has certainly struggled in recent years.

All that having been said, the good news is that the SEC has remained a major factor in Division I.  Florida rode their 1 seed into the Final Four last year before losing to national champion Connecticut in the semifinals.  Kentucky did even better, making it all the way to the national championship game before falling to UConn as well.  Even Tennessee succeeded, turning a First Four appearance into a Sweet 16 spot before losing to Michigan.  The SEC also placed four teams into the NIT (LSU, Arkansas, Georgia and Missouri) and one team into the CBI (Texas A&M).  Thus, while the SEC has not been putting teams into the tournament, there are still programs here that have had success, and the teams that make the field are as dangerous as any team in the country.

This season the SEC may struggle again to get more than a small handful of teams into the Big Dance, but the projected conference champion, Kentucky, could very well be back in the national championship game again this year.  Florida should also be in the NCAA picture along with a rising Arkansas program.  If the SEC is to get more than three bids this year, teams such as Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and/or Georgia will need to step it up.  Auburn is our pick at the moment from this group, as Bruce Pearl has brought in arguably the best crop of transfers in the nation as part of his return to the college coaching ranks.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Kentucky: John Calipari has such a deep and talented team that he intends to use hockey-style line shifts during games.  If the players can all mesh together, the sky is the limit for the Wildcats.
2.  Arkansas: The Razorbacks need to learn how to win on the road, but if they do, with talented players such as Bobby Portis, Michael Qualls and Ky Madden, they may prove to be the second best team in the conference.
3.  Florida: Michael Frazier II is the only returning starter, but Dorian Finney-Smith should be able to step into a starting role and the Gators have reloaded with the likes of Rutgers transfer Eli Carter.  There is no reason why they will not be near the top of the conference race again.
4.  Auburn: Bruce Pearl has energized the fan base at Auburn already, and the pieces are here for him to be successful in his first year.  Niagara transfer Antoine Mason, New Mexico State transfer K.C. Ross-Miller, JC transfer Cinmeon Bowers and leading returning scorer K.T. Harrell should all be huge helps in turning this team into a legitimate NCAA tournament contender.
5.  LSU: The combination of Jarell Martin, Jordan Mickey and 7-1 freshman Elbert Robinson III give the Tigers a very tough frontcourt.  The backcourt will be the question mark with JC transfer Josh Gray and freshman Jalyn Patterson both being needed to perform at high levels if the Tigers want to dance this year.
6.  Missouri: Kim Anderson takes over head coaching duties and everything says that he will be able to succeed.  Mizzou has brought in a strong recruiting class this season, but these kids will need to mature in a hurry with the majority of last year’s team gone.
7.  Ole Miss: Life after Marshall Henderson begins this season for the Rebels.  Jarvis Summers should excel this year and keep an eye on Aaron Brown down low.
8.  Texas A&M: Billy Kennedy has turned to Rick Stansbury as an assistant coach, but he will need a lot more than that if the Aggies want to get into the bubble discussion this year.  This team does have a lot of experience on the roster with Alex Caruso, Kourtney Robinson and more — enough to potentially be a surprise team in the SEC standings.
9.  Georgia: The Bulldogs would be picked higher if they hadn’t lost Brandon Morris in the offseason.  Still, they have the talent to rise in the standings with the likes of Kenny Gaines, Charles Mann and Cameron Forte.
10.  Alabama: The Crimson Tide have a solid backcourt but also have some significant issues down low with sophomore Shannon Hale as the only proven player.
11.  South Carolina: Frank Martin actually has this program slowly moving in the right direction, especially with Sindarius Thornwell and Tyrone Johnson in the backcourt, plus some experience down low.  However, the Gamecocks may still be a year away from making a serious run at an NCAA bid.
12.  Tennessee: The Vols will have a solid backcourt with Josh Richardson, Kevin Punter and Robert Hubbs III.  They also look like they will have a lot of problems down low.
13.  Vanderbilt: Damian Jones should be the star for the Commodores.  Unfortunately, there are not very many other proven players on the roster.  Kevin Stallings has brought in a Top 30 recruiting class, and with Jones only being a sophomore, things should be looking up for Vandy this time next year.
14.  Mississippi State: The good news is that all five starters return for the Bulldogs.  The bad news is that they just don’t appear to have the talent level to avoid being near the bottom of the conference standings.

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Conference Preview: Pac 12

Posted on November 12, 2014 by Chad

In 2012, the Pac-12 put only two teams into the NCAA tournament, receiving an 11 seed and a 12 seed.  The regular season champion, Washington, was not one of those teams and ended up in the NIT.  The conference has certainly come a long way from that low point, with six teams making the field in 2014, including 1 seed Arizona, 4 seed UCLA, 7 seed Oregon, 8 seed Colorado and 10 seeds Stanford and Arizona State.  The conference made noise in the tournament as well with three Sweet 16 teams, including surprising Stanford, and Arizona advanced to the Elite 8.  Postseason appearances were also made last year by California and Utah in the NIT and by Oregon State in the CBI.

This year, the Pac-12 should continue its success as it could see at least six bids in March.  Arizona leads the way as not only the top team in the conference but also as a legitimate contender for the Final Four and the national championship.  Utah, Colorado, UCLA, Stanford, California, and Arizona State could all be in the NCAA tournament conversation as well.  Oregon looks like it will fall off the pace this season as off-court issues have swirled around the program.  However, the conference looks as strong and deep as any in the nation as we head into the new season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Arizona: The Wildcats appear to be stacked and are a contender to cut down the nets at the end of the season.  A key to their success could be Kadeem Allen, a top junior college transfer who has a chance to be a big time scorer.
2.  Utah: The Utes beefed up their non-conference schedule this season as they bring back every key player from last year’s 21 win team.  Delon Wright will be the team’s star.
3.  Colorado: Askia Booker, Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson are all back to lead this experienced squad.  The only key offseason loss was Spencer Dinwiddie, but the Buffaloes proved at the end of last season that they could win without him.
4.  UCLA: While Norman Powell is the only returning starter, the addition of Colorado State transfer Jon Octeus and a strong recruiting class should have the Bruins right back among the league leaders.
5.  Stanford: Anthony Brown and Chasson Randle give the Cardinal a great backcourt.  If they can make up for offseason losses down low, a return to the NCAAs is likely.
6.  California: If Jabari Bird can step up his game and freshman Kingsley Okoroh is the real deal, the Golden Bears may give Cuonzo Martin a tournament bid in his first season at the helm.
7.  Arizona State: On paper this looks like a rebuilding year for the Sun Devils, but junior college transfers Willie Atwood, Roosevelt Scott, Gerry Blake and Savon Goodman should all help this team reload quickly.
8.  Southern California: Andy Enfield does not return much from last season in his second year at the helm, but a solid recruiting class gives hope for a quick rebuild.
9.  Washington: Nigel Williams-Goss is a solid player and an NBA prospect.  Unfortunately for the Huskies, there does not appear to be much else here beyond him.
10.  Oregon: With all the off-court issues, Joseph Young is the only noteworthy player back from last year’s NCAA tournament team.
11.  Washington State: Ernie Kent returns to the Pac-12, taking over for Ken Bone.  DaVonte Lacey will lead this team and could lead the conference in scoring this season, but there are not enough other pieces here yet.
12.  Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle takes over in an attempt to rebuild the Beavers program, but this looks like a long season.  He did add Gary Payton II to at least bring back memories for OSU fans of his father.

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Conference Preview: Mountain West

Posted on November 12, 2014 by Chad

The Mountain West is a conference in the middle.  It is clearly not a “mid-major” or “small conference,” yet it is not a power conference either.  However, while the Atlantic Ten was placing six teams into the NCAA tournament last season, the MWC only had two.  New Mexico received a 7 seed and lost its first game while San Diego State got a 4 seed and advanced to the Sweet 16 before falling to Arizona.  UNLV and Boise State both won 20+ games last year, but the NIT did not come calling for either and the schools opted not to play in the CBI or CIT.  Wyoming and Fresno State both accepted CBI bids, with Fresno losing in the best-of-3 championship series to Siena.

This year, the MWC will look for better representation in the postseason in order to further distance themselves from the mid-majors.  Four or more bids is clearly a possibility.  San Diego State is the team to beat with a good portion of last year’s team returning and a top recruiting class being added in.  UNLV, Boise State, Wyoming and Fresno State should all factor in the hunt for NCAA bids as well.  UNLV is particularly worth watching as their recruiting class this season has been ranked as one of the Top Ten in the entire nation.  New Mexico is likely to slide off the pace after losing their top three players from last season.  One team that will definitely not be in postseason contention is San Jose State as the Spartans have been hit with an APR postseason ban.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  San Diego State: Winston Sheppard, Dwayne Polee II and Angelo Choi give the Aztecs a formidable frontcourt.  Steve Fischer has a top recruiting class as well, especially if Malik Pope is healthy.
2.  Boise State: Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks will score a lot of points.  A strong group of young players added in should give the Broncos the best shot at knocking San Diego State out of the top spot.
3.  UNLV: The Rebels have put together one of the top recruiting classes in the nation led by Rashad Vaughn.  They have also loaded up with a killer non-conference schedule.  This team will take its lumps early but if the young talent comes together, they could be very formidable by March.
4.  Wyoming: Riley Grabau and Josh Adams form one of the conference’s best backcourts.  Larry Nance Jr. is returning from injury and could help lead this team to an NCAA berth.
5.  Fresno State: Cezar Guerrero, Paul Watson and Marvelle Harris all return to lead the CBI runner-ups as they will try to get into the NCAA conversation this season.  Julien Lewis is a huge addition as well, having started at Texas for two seasons before transferring.
6.  Air Force: Tre’ Coggins was the Falcons best player last season and he is gone now.  However, everyone else is back including Max Yon and Kamryn Williams.  This could be a surprise team.
7.  New Mexico: Hugh Greenwood and Cullen Neal will need to step up this season, but the Lobos appear to have lost too much from last year to be back in the tournament discussion again.
8.   Colorado State: Daniel Bejarano and J.J. Avila are going to score a lot of points, but there are not enough other pieces for the Rams to be among the top teams.
9.  Utah State: The Aggies have a good young core, but this could be a long season as they rebuild after losing three double-digit scorers from a team that lost 14 times last year.
10.  Nevada: The Wolf Pack lost their top three players from a sub-.500 team.  This could be a tough year in Reno.
11.  San Jose State*: Rashad Muhammad is a legitimate player, but the Spartans appear to be bound for another last place finish.

* San Jose State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.

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Conference Preview: Big 12

Posted on November 12, 2014 by Chad

70% of the Big 12 conference played in the NCAA tournament last year.  7 out of 10 teams.  Percentage-wise, that is an amazing statistic.  And you can add to it the fact that all seven NCAA teams were single-digit seeds, with a 2 (Kansas), 3 (Iowa State), 5 (Oklahoma), 6 (Baylor), 7 (Texas), and a pair of 9s (Kansas State and Oklahoma State).  West Virginia made it 80% of the conference in postseason play by accepting an NIT bid.  That was the good news.  The bad news for the Big 12 last season was its actual performance in the NCAA tournament.  Three teams fell in the Round of 64, two more in the Round of 32 and the last two fell in the Sweet 16.  The Big 12 certainly had the regular season to stake a claim at being called the top conference last year, but it was completely unable to follow-up that claim in the Big Dance.  The conference will need to do better in March if it wants to vie for the top spot this season.

The Kansas Jayhawks have won or shared ten consecutive Big 12 regular season championships, and we are predicting that the number will grow to 11 this year.  Bill Self simply reloads this team every year, and has the pieces coming in to make up for losing Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins to the NBA draft.  The top contenders to knock the Jayhawks off their perch appear to be Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma.  West Virginia is also a team to keep an eye on as the Mountaineers look poised to return to the NCAAs for the first time in three years.  On the other side, Baylor and Oklahoma State appear to be in rebuilding mode and will need a lot of things to come together just right to return to the tournament this season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Kansas: Who else?  The Jayhawks will look for their 11th straight championship behind the leadership of Wayne Selden Jr. and Perry Ellis.  Top recruits Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre will help make up for the offseason losses, while Ukranian phenom Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk could be the wild card to push this team over the top if he is ready to compete at this level.
2.  Texas: Virtually the entire roster is back for Rick Barnes led by Jonathan Holmes.  If Kendal Yancy can step up after a weak freshman campaign and top recruit Myles Turner is all he is hyped to be, the Longhorns could have what it takes to dethrone Kansas.
3.  Iowa State: The Cyclones look to have another solid team with UNLV transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones joining Monte Morris, Georges Niang and more.
4.  Oklahoma:  With Buddy Hield and Ryan Spangler leading the returning cast, the Sooners appear to be strong enough to cruise back into the NCAA tournament.
5.  West Virginia: Juwan Staten’s decision to return for his senior season was huge, and when added to a deep team that includes Devin Williams, transfer Jonathan Holton and freshman Elijah Macon, there is no reason the Mountaineers will not be in the tournament discussion in March.
6.  Kansas State: Marcus Foster and Thomas Gipson can both play, but they might not be enough to land the Wildcats on the right side of the bubble.
7.  Oklahoma State: The Cowboys enter rebuild mode after losing Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, but Le’Bryan Nash, LSU transfer Athony Hickey and Michael Cobbins’ return from injury will help keep them in the hunt for a postseason bid.
8.  Baylor: Scott Drew’s teams seem to be on an every other year cycle, and this is the off year.  The Bears simply lost too many pieces from last season’s team to be serious about a return to the NCAAs.
9.  TCU: The Horned Frogs have a legitimate star in Kyan Anderson.  Unfortunately, that appears to be all they have as Trent Johnson may be on the hot seat in Forth Worth.
10.  Texas Tech: We have no doubt that Tubby Smith will build the Red Raiders into a tournament team.  Unfortunately, he lost three starters off of last year’s 14-18 squad and this year may be the step back before they are ready to seriously move forward.

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Conference Preview: Big Ten

Posted on November 11, 2014 by Chad

Prior to the start of the 2013-14 season there was at least some debate as to which conference, top to bottom, was the best — the ACC or the Big Ten.  One needs to look no further than postseason success (after both conferences secured six NCAA tournament bids) to have that simple answer.  The ACC had only one team left after the first weekend of the tournament, and that team (Virginia) fell in the regional semifinals — to Michigan State.  Although Iowa, Ohio State and Nebraska all lost their first game played, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin were three of the Elite Eight teams last season.  Wisconsin continued on and advanced to the Final Four, losing there to Kentucky in the national semifinals.  As if that wasn’t enough success, Minnesota added the NIT championship to the conference’s accolades, and both Illinois (NIT as well) and Penn State (CBI) joined their conference mates in postseason play, meaning 75% of the conference played on after the Big Ten tournament.

This season sees the Big Ten expand to 14 teams with the additions of Maryland from the ACC and Rutgers from the Big East/American.  While odds are that the two newcomers will not be NCAA tournament teams (though Maryland could be in the hunt), the rest of the conference looks strong enough to exceed last year’s 6 bids, with 7 or even 8 a possibility.  The odds-on favorite to win the conference, and a legitimate Final Four contender, is Wisconsin.  The Badgers return the vast majority of last season’s Final Four team.  Ohio State and Nebraska both appear loaded as well and are the most likely contenders to take the crown if the Badgers falter.  Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa should all be serious contenders for NCAA tournament bids as well.  Minnesota is getting a lot of preseason love from media sources, though quite frankly we here at HOOPS HD think they will struggle to meet expectations and are by no means an NCAA tournament lock.

One other team worth mentioning here is the Indiana Hoosiers.  On paper, the talent level is there for this team to be in the hunt for a tournament bid with Yogi Ferrell leading the way and James Blackmon, Jr. coming in as one of the nation’s top recruits.  However, the Hoosiers have also had no less than four separate instances in the past year involving players getting into off-court trouble with alcohol and/or drugs.  Now it is a fact of life that underage college kids will party and drink, but when something as horrible and frankly idiotic as one player getting drunk, then getting behind the wheel of a car and running over his teammate occurs (and we wish all the best to Devin Davis as he recovers from his injuries), it leads to serious questions about the values being taught to the student-athletes, the leadership being demonstrated among teammates, and the intelligence of all involved*.  In this writer’s humble opinion at least, those are virtues that need to come from the head coach and move down through the team.  Certainly Tom Crean was not directly at fault for anything that happened — but one questions just how much he is teaching these kids about life off of the court.  As far as the game on the court goes, these events also make one question whether this team has the leadership, camaraderie and intelligence to actually win games.  Maybe the Hoosiers can put all this behind them and use it as a way to bond, grow up, and become a contender.  One can only hope, because the last thing we ever want to hear about is college kids ending up in the hospital due to such utter stupidity.

* CORRECTION: The driver apparently was not legally drunk under Indiana law though there was alcohol in his blood (and he was underage and the appointed Designated Driver for the night).  Devin Davis allegedly was so drunk he tried to jump onto the hood of a moving car.  These facts change nothing in my opinion as to the lack of leadership and, quite frankly, the lack of brains on the train-wreck known as Indiana Hoosiers Basketball.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Wisconsin: Frank Kaminsky, Traevon Jackson and Sam Dekker lead the way for this loaded team that should be the best in the conference.
2.  Ohio State: Despite losing three players that averaged 9.8 points per game or more, the Buckeyes are reloading with the additions of Anthony Lee from Temple and perhaps the Big Ten’s best freshman, D’Angelo Russell.
3.  Nebraska: The return of all five starters, including Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields, give the Cornhuskers a shot to not only return to the NCAAs, but actually advance this year.
4.  Illinois: John Groce’s team looks ready to make that next step up towards the top of the conference standings.  The Illini return all five starters including Rayvonte Rice and Tracy Abrams, plus add in Ahmad Starks, Leron Black and more.
5.  Michigan: The Wolverines look to reload after losing three starters, but D.J. Wilson, Derrick Walton Jr., Zak Irvin and Caris LaVert will all help to pick up the slack and should have this team dancing again.
6.  Michigan State: Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine will need to step up, but never underestimate Tom Izzo’s ability to turn his weaker looking teams before the season into overachievers by the end.
7.  Iowa: With Aaron White and Mike Gesell leading the way, and a good mix of talent both inside and out, the Hawkeyes look like they will be able to survive the loss of Roy Devyn Marble.
8.  Minnesota: The Gophers seem to be loved by the media heading into the season, but to us they look like a team full of transfers and Jucos — and that won’t work in the Big Ten.  That being said, Deandre Mathieu is the real deal and will be needed if the Gophers want to be in a better tournament than the NIT this year.
9.  Maryland: Dez Wells is going to be tough for other teams to contain, but the Terps will need to find some other pieces to help him out if they want any shot at an NCAA bid.
10.  Indiana: If not for the off court issues, the Hoosiers would be picked higher than this.  Yogi Ferrell and freshman James Blackmon Jr. should form a top backcourt.  If the team can come together and a frontcourt develops, the NCAA tournament is an achievable goal.
11.  Northwestern: Chris Collins is starting to put together the young talent to finally get the Wildcats their first ever NCAA bid, but it probably won’t be this year.
12.  Penn State: The combination of D.J. Newbill, Brandon Taylor and Ross Travis will make the Nittany Lions dangerous enough to pull off a few upsets.
13.  Purdue: A.J. Hammons is legitimate, but the rest of the team appears to be too young to avoid a long season in West Lafayette.
14.  Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights will be introducing Big Ten teams to one of the toughest places for visitors to play — as many an old Big East foe knew.  Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack can both light up the scoreboard and will be key if Rutgers wants to pull off a couple of shockers this year.

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Conference Preview: Big East

Posted on November 11, 2014 by Chad

Even though some of the names are familiar, this is no longer the Big East that most of us remember.  It is not the collection of relatively nearby schools such as Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova and Boston College that started the conference in the 80’s.  And it is not the huge powerhouse that expanded eventually out to sixteen teams including the likes of Marquette, Cincinnati and Louisville in the 00’s.  Instead, this is a group of ten solid programs that do not worship the college football gods.  In theory, that is the ideal that all of us college hoops fanatics wish would be the mentality at times.  In practice, at least in its first season, the Big East seemed to have been more of an afterthought on the national stage.

Last year the Big East placed four teams into the NCAA tournament.  That group included Providence, which won the automatic bid and got an 11 seed, thus signifying a decent chance the Friars would have been in the NIT had they not won the conference tournament championship game.  It also included a Xavier team that was sent to Dayton to play in the First Four, where they promptly lost.  Villanova and Creighton both got very high seeds (2 and 3 respectively), but none of the four teams made it past the first weekend of the tournament.  Georgetown and St. John’s received the conference’s only other postseason bids, both to the NIT, but failed to advance deep in that tournament as well.

This year, the Big East is clearly led by the Villanova Wildcats.  ‘Nova will be looking to establish themselves on the national scene and is definitely on the list of preseason potential Final Four teams.  Jay Wright’s squad returns four starters from a team that won 29 games last season and went 16-2 in Big East play.  The only other team in the Big East that looks, on paper, like an NCAA tournament team is Georgetown.  The Hoyas bring back D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera, one of the conference’s top guards, and should hopefully finally find a way to get solid, consistent production out of Josh Smith down low.  Xavier, Providence and St. John’s all have enough talent to also be in the at-large discussion this season, while Creighton looks to fall back in the pack now that Doug McDermott has graduated.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Villanova: Darrun Hilliard, Ryan Arcidiacono, JayVaughn Pinkston, Daniel Ochefu and more give the Wildcats the strength and depth to compete with almost any team in the nation.
2.  Georgetown: With Smith-Rivera and Jabril Trawick in the backcourt, Josh Smith down low, and top recruit Isaac Copeland, John Thompson III looks like he has the tools to get the Hoyas back into the NCAA tournament.
3.  Xavier: Dee Davis is solid at the point and Indiana transfer Remy Abell will look to fill in at the shooting guard position.  If Matt Stainbrook continues to get better and a talented recruiting class is ready to play, the Musketeers could end up dancing in March.
4.  Providence: Bryce Cotton is gone, meaning that it will be up to LaDontae Henton and Tyler Harris to lead the way.  Kris Dunn and Rodney Bullock both missed last season and should be back to help fill in the holes for the Friars.
5.  St. John’s: D’Angelo Harrison may prove to be the best player in the league, but the Red Storm do not appear to have enough other pieces to contend.
6.  Seton Hall: Sterling Gibbs is among the top point guards in the Big East, but beyond him the Pirates will need their recruits to step up.  Freshmen Isaiah Whitehead and Chier Ajou could be among the top newcomers in the conference.
7.  Creighton: Austin Chatman is the only returning player that averaged more than 8 points per game last season, making this a clear rebuilding year as the post-Doug McDermott era begins.
8.  Butler: Chris Holtmann is the interim head coach and may end up in that position a lot longer than expected with Brandon Miller still on a leave of absence.  The Bulldogs will need Kellen Dunham to lead offensively.  Roosevelt Jones’ return from injury and the addition of Indiana transfer Austin Etherington should help as well.
9.  Marquette: Wojo takes over head coaching duties, but does so with a team that consists of Matt Carlino and a ton of question marks.  This looks like it could be a long season in Milwaukee.
10.  DePaul: Billy Garrett, Jr. should be the Blue Demons’ top player and Illinois transfer Mike Henry should contribute, but another last place finish appears likely.

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