Conference Preview: WAC

Posted on November 5, 2014 by Chad

Utah Valley captured the WAC regular season championship last season, but got upset in the conference tournament semifinals by Idaho and ended up playing in the NIT.  New Mexico State was able to knock off Idaho in the championship game and took the automatic bid, losing by four to San Diego State in the Round of 64.  The Idaho upset of UVU accomplished two things last season — it gave the Vandals their last WAC win before moving back to the Big Sky conference this year, and it denied us the opportunity to see a rematch between UVU and New Mexico State in the finals.  Utah Valley had defeated the Aggies in overtime on February 27, in a game that was most notable for a nasty post-game brawl involving both players and fans that started when K.C. Ross-Miller (now playing for Auburn) threw the basketball at Holton Hunsaker (who has since graduated) as the Wolverines fans were storming the court to celebrate the victory.  The nastiness of that brawl, however, may be the start of an actual rivalry in the WAC — a conference that has been completely torn apart and rebuilt as a non-football entity following the latest wave of conference realignment and now needs to build an identity.

New Mexico State and Utah Valley should again be the two teams battling for the top seed in the conference tournament and a shot at winning the automatic bid, though the Seattle Redhawks could also factor into the race this season.  One team that will not be in contention for the automatic bid is “Thunder” Dan Majerle’s Grand Canyon Antelopes.  The ‘Lopes are in only their second year of their four year transition to the D1 level and are ineligible for the WAC or NCAA tournaments (they are eligible for other postseason tournaments and did receive a bid into the CIT last year).  Despite being ineligible to play in the NCAAs, the ‘Lopes are our pick for the conference’s regular season championship.  Not only does Grand Canyon have one of the strongest looking rosters in the WAC (on paper at least) but with a combination of seven true and redshirt freshmen, it is clear that Thunder Dan is already targeting that 2017-18 season when Grand Canyon becomes eligible for the Big Dance.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Grand Canyon*: Transfers Royce Woolridge (Washington State) and DeWayne Russell (Northern Arizona) could have major impacts this season, especially when added to returnees Daniel Alexander and Jerome Garrison.  While they cannot play in the NCAA tournament, a postseason bid for the ‘Lopes seems very likely.
2.  New Mexico State: Daniel Mullings, Tshilidzi Nephawe and DK Eldridge all return from last season’s NCAA tournament team.  While 7-5, 360 pound Sim Bhullar is now gone, his 7-3, 335 pound brother Tanveer has taken his place and could be just as effective.
3.  Utah Valley: The Wolverines have lost their top two scorers, but they should remain tough to beat with the returns of starters Mitch Bruneel and Zach Nelson.  Hayes Garrity should move into the starting lineup and score points as well.
4.  Seattle: Isiah Umipig averaged just under 20 points per game last season, and should vie for conference Player of the Year honors this season.  If the Redhawks can get production down low, they could be a dangerous team.
5.  Missouri-Kansas City: Martez Harrison will score a lot of points for the ‘Roos, but there are not enough pieces on this team beyond him.
6.  Texas-Pan American: The Broncs have a pair of Shaqs — Shaquille Boga and Shaquille Hines.  They will need to be the leaders on a team filled with freshmen and junior college transfers if UTPA is going to have any success this season.
7.  Chicago State: The Cougars barely avoided 20 losses last season (13-19 overall), but with only one returning starter, they may not be able to avoid that mark this year.
8.  Bakersfield: The best chance to avoid the conference basement will be if Aly Ahmed can become a legitimate double-double threat every night.

* Grand Canyon is ineligible for the WAC and NCAA tournaments as a second year transitional team.

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Conference Preview: West Coast

Posted on November 5, 2014 by Chad

Mark Few has been the head coach of the Gonzaga Bulldogs for 15 seasons now, and every single one of them has ended in the NCAA tournament.  Four of those sixteen appearances have even led to Sweet 16 berths.  Yet, despite having one of the most consistently successful programs in the NCAA over this time period, Few has never gotten a team beyond the Sweet 16 (Gonzaga did reach the Elite Eight in 1999, but Dan Monson was head coach at the time).  It has seemed recently that the Zags are simply a team we can ink into the tournament field, and then pretty much lock in for a loss in one of their first two games once there.  That could all change this year.

Kevin Pangos is back to lead the Zags this season.  Also returning is Gary Bell, Jr., a great defensive player.  Przemek Karnowski is a 7-1 beast down low who averaged double digits in scoring last season.  Byron Wesley joins the team after transferring from USC where he averaged 17.8 points per game.  Kyle Wiltjer transfers in from Kentucky where he averaged 10.2 points per game in 2013 and was named the SEC’s Sixth Man of the Year.  Oh, and by the way Mark Few brought in another solid recruiting class headlined by Domantas Sabonis, son of NBA Hall of Famer Arvydas Sabonis.  Sabonis was overlooked by many teams that did not realize he would be eligible to enroll in college this season after playing high school ball in France.  To make a long story short, not only may this be Mark Few’s deepest and most talented Gonzaga team yet, but the tools appear to be here to actually make a serious run come March, beyond even the Sweet 16.

Of course, Gonzaga is not the only team in the West Coast Conference.  BYU returns a solid squad led by Tyler Haws with legitimate NCAA tournament hopes after securing a 10 seed last season.  St. Mary’s could also cause trouble this season as they add several key pieces to last year’s NIT squad.  Portland may be the fourth best team, as last season’s other three postseason participants (San Francisco made the NIT; Pacific and San Diego both played in the CIT) may fall back in the standings.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are not only the best team in the WCC, but they may prove to be one of the best in the entire country.
2.  BYU: Haws and Kyle Collinsworth (who is back from knee surgery) are strong enough to lead the Cougars to a lot of victories and should have them back in the Big Dance.
3.  St. Mary’s: Randy Bennett should have this team near the top of the conference standings again with Brad Waldow and Kerry Carter, plus the addition of transfers Joe Coleman (Minnesota), Desmond Simmons (Washington) and Aaron Bright (Stanford).  If the chips fall right, the Gaels could be in the at-large discussion as well.
4.  Portland: The combination of Kevin Bailey in the backcourt and Thomas van der Mars in the front will make the Pilots a dangerous team, though they probably lack the depth to compete with the top three teams.
5.  San Diego: Johnny Dee and Duda Sanadze give the Toreros a potent backcourt, but there are question marks down low.
6.  San Francisco: Rex Walters has strong forwards with Kruize Perkins and Mark Tollefsen, but the Dons lost their top two scorers and may take a step back this season.
7.  Santa Clara: The Broncos should be fun to watch with the combination of Brandon Clark and Jared Brownridge, but there just do not appear to be enough other pieces here to contend.
8.  Pepperdine: The Waves need to find the players to help out Stacy Davis.  Freshman Shawn Olden could be one such answer.
9.  Loyola Marymount: Mike Dunlap takes over head coaching duties and needs to begin rebuilding the Lions.  Evan Payton should star for LMU at least, and he is only a sophomore.
10.  Pacific: The Tigers look like they will fall pretty far this season.  Last year’s CIT semifinalists lose their entire starting lineup and could face a long season.

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Conference Preview: Sun Belt

Posted on November 4, 2014 by Chad

The Sun Belt conference was dominated by Georgia State last season.  The Panthers went 17-1 in conference and then blew out Arkansas State in the Sun Belt tournament semifinals.  This is why it was almost a complete shock when Louisiana-Lafayette upset the Panthers in overtime in the tournament final and stole the NCAA bid.  Georgia State did get the consolation prize of an NIT appearance, but a very weak non-conference schedule with a handful of bad losses kept them from any serious at-large bid consideration.

This season, Georgia State looks like they will have to dominate in conference play and take the tournament title to dance as well, as the only real non-conference test is a game against Iowa State.  However, the pieces are certainly there for the Panthers as they return stars R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow and add Louisville transfer Kevin Ware (who suffered a horrifying injury while playing for the Cardinals during the 2013 NCAA tournament).  Assuming Ware is healthy, this team has all the pieces to once again dominate the conference.

The Sun Belt does have a membership change this year as Western Kentucky has left to join Conference USA while Appalachian State and Georgia Southern both move in from the Southern Conference.  Appalachian State looks like it will suffer a long first season in the Sun Belt, especially with an APR postseason ban to deal with, but Georgia Southern is a team that we are picking as a surprise contender.  Arkansas-Little Rock and defending tournament champion Louisiana-Lafayette should both figure in the race as well . . . at least the race for second place.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Georgia State: Ware suffered an injury during practice, but assuming he will not miss any significant time, the Panthers seem poised to dominate the conference again.  With a weak non-conference slate, they have very little margin for error if an at-large bid is needed.
2.  Arkansas-Little Rock: Josh Hagins and James White will lead a deep, experienced team with the best shot at giving Georgia State a run for its money.
3.  Georgia Southern: Jelani Hewitt and Eric Ferguson will score points, and if the strong recruiting class is ready to contribute, the Eagles could be right in contention.
4.  Louisiana-Lafayette: Shawn Long is one of the top forwards in the conference, but losing three starters from last year’s NCAA tournament team will make a return trip difficult this season.
5.  Texas-Arlington: Lonnie McClanahan will need to lead this team, but the loss of last year’s top two scorers will make challenging for the top of the conference difficult.
6.  Troy: While Kevin Thomas is the only returning starter, head coach Phil Cunningham has added a lot of new faces that could have the Trojans surprising people once they begin meshing together as a team.
7.  Louisiana-Monroe: Tylor Ongwae is a legitimate threat every night, but the rest of the pieces do not appear to be here.
8.  Arkansas State: With all five starters gone, this looks like a rebuilding year in Jonesboro, and just finishing in the top 8 and qualifying for the Sun Belt tournament may be the goal.
9.  Appalachian State*: The good news is that all five starters are returning from last year’s squad.  The bad news is that it was a team that lost 21 times, and now has to deal with a one year postseason ban.
10.  Texas State: It will be tough for Danny Kaspar’s second season at the helm to be worse than his first, but the Bobcats are still being rebuilt and this should be another long season.
11.  South Alabama: With the top three scorers gone from a team that lost 20 games, this looks like another long season in Mobile.

* Appalachian State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.

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Conference Preview: Summit League

Posted on November 4, 2014 by Chad

The Summit League says hello and goodbye as it heads into the 2014-15 season.  The hello is for Oral Roberts, which returns after spending two seasons in the Southland to a conference that it had pretty much dominated through the late 2000’s.  The goodbye is to Saul Phillips, head coach at North Dakota State, who led the Bison to an NCAA tournament berth and first round win over Oklahoma last season, then headed off to take over the head coaching position at Ohio University.

ORU is in fact our preseason pick to take the conference title this season.  The Golden Eagles welcome back Obi Emegano who tore his ACL last November, plus have four returning starters led by Korey Billbury.  However, it will not be easy for ORU this season, with as many as six other teams having legitimate title asperations.  Denver is led by Brett Olson, one of the best guards in the conference, Fort Wayne looks to build off of last season’s success that included an appearance in the CIT, North Dakota State looks to reload under new head coach David Richman, South Dakota State will look to build off of a CBI appearance, Omaha returns three starters from a team that appeared in the CIT, and even South Dakota could be a dark horse candidate to challenge for the top of the standings.  All told, the Summit League race figures to be wide open and very entertaining all season long.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Oral Roberts: Scott Sutton’s team has the depth and experience to win the Summit, especially with a healthy Emegano.
2.  Denver: It seems that Joe Scott’s Denver teams have underperformed each of the last few years, so it is difficult to pick them to win the conference despite the return of four starters including Olson.
3.  Fort Wayne: Steve Forbes will be the leader of this team, but they need to make up for the loss of three starters, including star point guard Pierre Bland.
4.  North Dakota State: With the loss of their head coach and top three scorers, this looks like a rebuilding year, but Lawrence Alexander should step up to lead this season.
5.  South Dakota State: Cody Larson averaged 13.1 points per game last season, and the Jackrabbits welcome transfer George Marshall from Wisconsin (he is eligible after the first semester), but they will need to find a way to make up for the loss of their top two scorers.
6.  Omaha*: The Mavericks are in their final year of transition to Division I, but appear ready to contend now.  CJ Carter and Devin Patterson are returning double digit scorers from last season’s CIT team, while the addition of Wichita State transfer Jake White could help push this team towards the top of the conference standings.
7.  South Dakota: A potential dark horse candidate in the Summit League this year, the Coyotes, under new head coach Craig Smith, welcome in a slew of transfers and junior college players.  If the newcomers can mesh with the returning players, this team could end up surprising a lot of people.
8.  Western Illinois: Garret Convington should score a ton of points in only his sophomore year, but there do not appear to be enough other pieces here for much improvement on last season’s 20 losses.
9.  IUPUI: Jason Gardner takes over as head coach after back-to-back 26 loss seasons.  While it appears that he is taking the right steps towards rebuilding the Jaguars, this first season will still likely be a long one.

* Omaha is ineligible for the Summit League and NCAA tournaments as a fourth year transitional team.

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Conference Preview: SWAC

Posted on November 3, 2014 by Chad

Of the 32 conferences in Division I, the SWAC has been hit the hardest by the Academic Progress Rate rules, having had multiple teams ineligible for postseason play each of the last few years.  Last season was perhaps the roughest with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling and Mississippi Valley State all ruled ineligible for postseason play, and then having Southern University added to the list late in the season due to irregularities in the data they had supplied to the NCAA.  With four out of ten teams ineligible, the SWAC actually ended up revising their conference tournament format to allow all ten teams to play, giving their automatic bid to the eligible team that advanced the furthest (which ended up being tournament champion Texas Southern).

This season things are a lot different in the SWAC.  While Southern is still ineligible as they try to resolve issues that basically made all of the school’s academic data unusable (and you can read into that whatever you desire), only Alabama State joins them in being ineligible under the APR.  With the Southland having three teams on the postseason ban list, the SWAC has clearly moved up out of the Division I APR basement, hopefully for good.

Alabama State’s place on the ban list could not have come with worse timing, as the Hornets appear to be the runaway leader, at least on paper, in the race for the conference title.  Jamel Waters is one of the top players in the SWAC and he leads a team with all five starters returning.  The Hornets also return the majority of their bench from a team that won 19 games last season and made an appearance in the CIT.  After Alabama State, the SWAC appears to be wide open, with Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M all looking like they will be competitive in league play.  Alcorn State is our pick as the second best and thus the automatic bid winner.  Grambling State also continues its rebuild and has a shot to move out of the conference basement under new head coach Shawn Walker.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Alabama State*: Waters stars for this deep veteran team that appears to be a level above everyone else in the conference.
2.  Alcorn State: LeAntwan Luckett, Octavius Brown and Marquis Vance all return for an experienced team that looks to be the best of the rest after Alabama State.
3.  Arkansas-Pine Bluff: The backcourt combination of Marcel Mosley and Tevin Hammond will be dangerous enough for the Golden Lions to compete with almost anyone in this conference.
4.  Texas Southern: With four starters, including star Aaric Murray, gone, the Tigers will need Madarious Gibbs and Jose Rodriguez to step up if they want to be near the top of the league standings.
5.  Prairie View A&M: Montrael Scott and John Brisco lead an experienced backcourt that should help the Panthers improve from last season’s 23 losses, but they will need to find some answers down low to challenge for anything higher than this.
6.  Southern*: The defending regular season champions lost four starters, but should still have a solid backcourt with Tre’Lun Banks and Tre Lynch.
7.  Jackson State: The Tigers lose their top two scorers from last season, though they should still be among the better defensive teams in the conference.  Finding some offense will be the key to moving up in the standings.
8.  Grambling State: The loss of Antwan Scott will hurt, but A’Torri Shore looks poised to lead this team which has a good chance to avoid the SWAC basement.
9.  Mississippi Valley State: The Delta Devils lose four starters from a 23 loss team that finished in 9th place in the SWAC.  That is a recipe for a very long season.
10.  Alabama A&M: The Bulldogs lose four starters as well, and no returning player averaged more than 3.4 points per game last season.  Avoiding the conference basement may be the ceiling this year.

* Alabama State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.  Southern is ineligible for postseason play due to ongoing issues surrounding the APR data that was submitted to the NCAA.

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Conference Preview: Southland

Posted on November 3, 2014 by Chad

If you have no done so already, make sure you check out our Preseason Bracketology Podcast here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/11/02/preseason-bracketology-podcast/

With thirteen members and only the top eight teams allowed into the conference tournament, it would appear that the Southland, in theory, would be eliminating five teams during its conference regular season, the most of any conference that has a postseason tournament.  However, this season at least, those five eliminations have all already occurred.  Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are both ineligible for the conference and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams.  Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist and Lamar have all run afoul of the APR rules and are banned from postseason play this year.  The remaining eight teams will play in the conference tournament for a shot at the league’s automatic bid — but that may just be a formality as well given that Stephen F. Austin returns six of its top nine players, meaning that they probably will not miss a step after going 18-0 in conference play, winning the Southland tournament and going on to upset VCU in the Round of 64 last year.

To the extent that anyone is going to challenge SFA, the two most likely candidates are the two teams that made postseason appearances in the CIT last year, Sam Houston State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.  The Bearkats return four starters and get DeMarcus Gatlin back after he had to take a medical redshirt with a knee injury last season.  The Islanders are led by John Jordan and should once again be one of the best defensive teams in the conference.

One team that Stephen F. Austin is not going to have to worry about this year is Oral Roberts.  After spending only two seasons in the Southland, the Golden Eagles chose to leave the conference and return to their prior home in the Summit League.  While the reason for the move to the Southland was to cut down on travel costs and grow more regional rivalries, ORU apparently felt that the Southland’s recent expansion combined with its focus on football (a sport that Oral Roberts does not sponsor), made the Southland less attractive than it had originally been.  Of course, ORU had a lot more success in the Summit League as well, capturing six titles, including three straight from 2006-08, as opposed to third place and sixth place finishes in their two runs through the Southland.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Stephen F. Austin: Jacob Parker, Thomas Walkup and the majority of the bench returns from last season’s team.  The Lumberjacks should not miss a step off of last year’s success.
2.  Sam Houston State: Jabari Peters, Kaheem Ransom, and getting Gatlin back from his injury should make the Bearkats the most likely to challenge Stephen F. Austin this year.
3.  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: With Jordan leading the way, there is no reason why the Islanders will not be competitive again this season.
4.  Northwestern State: Jalan West and Zikiteran Woodley are back for the Demons and their fast-paced, high-scoring team, but losing three starters from last season’s squad may be too much.
5.  Incarnate Word*: The Cardinals went 9-5 in Southland play last season despite it being only their first competing at the Division I level.  With three of their top four scorers back, including Denzel Livingston and his 20.3 points per game, there is no reason they will not be right up there in the regular season standings again this year.
6.  Southeastern Louisiana: JaMichael Hawkins and Southern Mississippi transfer Cedric Jenkins will lead this team, but the talent level does not appear to be there to compete for the conference’s top spots.
7.  McNeese State: Kevin Hardy and Desharick Guidry are good enough to keep the Cowboys in games, but this is still a 20 loss team that lost its top scorer from last season.
8.  New Orleans: The rebuild of the Privateers program is still ongoing following their decision not to drop down to Division II or III.  While the team is starting to build young talent, they are probably yet strong enough to avoid a lower division finish.
9.  Nicholls State: With their top two players from last year gone, it could be a long season for the Colonels.  The good news is that no matter how badly they struggle, they are guaranteed a berth in the Southland tournament.
10.  Abilene Christian*: The Wildcats return all five starters from last season, but depth could be an issue in their second season at the D1 level.
11.  Lamar*: The long rebuild from the Pat Knight era is just beginning, but Davontae Bailey is a top recruit for Tic Price in his first full season at the helm.
12.  Houston Baptist*: It is tough to be worse than the Huskies were last season at 6-25 overall, but unfortunately there is a chance they could be.
13.  Central Arkansas*: Russ Pennell takes over the program, but every key player from last season’s 21 loss squad is gone.  This could be a very long season for the Bears.

* Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian are ineligible for the Southland and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams.  Lamar, Houston Baptist and Central Arkansas are ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.

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