Conference Preview: Southern Conference

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Chad

Check out our Preseason Bracketology Podcast here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/11/02/preseason-bracketology-podcast/

The conference realignment craziness of the past few years seems to be finally coming to an end, and one of the victims of it all, once again, was the SoCon.  Gone from the Southern Conference are the teams that seem to have defined it in recent history.  Last season, College of Charleston left to join the Colonial.  This season, Elon has followed Charleston to the CAA, while Davidson (the Southern’s regular season champion and an NIT participant last season) is off to the Atlantic Ten.  Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are also both gone as well, heading to join the Sun Belt Conference for football reasons.

The cupboard is not completely bare in the SoCon, however.  Wofford, which won the conference tournament last season, is back.  Chattanooga, which also played in the postseason, getting a CBI bid, is still around as well.  And the SoCon welcomes three new members this season, all three of which received postseason invites last year.  Mercer and East Tennessee State move over from the Atlantic Sun.  Mercer, of course, not only won the A-Sun’s automatic bid last season but also went on to defeat Duke in the NCAA tournament.  ETSU played in the CIT last season and returns to the SoCon which it was a member of from 1978 through 2005.  Also returning to the SoCon is VMI (from the Big South).  The Keydets were members of the Southern from all the way back in 1923 until leaving in 2003.  They also played in the postseason last year, advancing to the semifinals of the CIT.

This season, the team to beat appears to be the Wofford Terriers, a team that returns all of its starters from last year’s NCAA tournament squad including Karl Cochran who may be the best guard in the conference.  Wofford should receive a challenge from Chattanooga, which is in its second year under former VCU assistant Will Wade and has adopted their own version of Havoc called “Chaos”.  Newcomers East Tennessee State and VMI could challenge as well, though the third newcomer, Mercer, looks like they will struggle with the entire starting lineup having moved on after last season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Wofford: Cochran is joined by the returns of Spencer Collins and Eric Garcia for the best three guard combo in the conference.  With the experience they built last season, and Davidson off to the A-10, the Terriers are the clear favorites this year.
2.  East Tennessee State: Rashawn Rembert averaged over 16 points per game last season and should only get better, but the Buccaneers have some question marks down low.
3.  Chattanooga: Year two of “Chaos” should be led by guard Casey Jones.  However, Z. Mason’s 18.1 points per game will be missed and there are some questions in the low posts.
4.  VMI: Even though two of three players that averaged 18 points per game or more are gone, Q.J. Peterson does return and given their high octane style of play, the Keydets should find ways to win.  Circle January 22 and February 26 on your calendars — the two meetings between VMI and Chattanooga this season.  Those games could be wild!
5.  Furman: The Paladins should improve off of last year’s 20 losses with the return of four starters including Stephen Croone and the addition of freshman Devin Sibley.
6.  Western Carolina: With three starters gone, this could be a rebuilding year, though senior guard James Sinclair is solid.  Freshman Tucker Thompson down low should get some serious minutes.
7.  Mercer: The combination of a new conference and no returning starters is not a recipe for success, at least this season.  Bob Hoffman has done some incredible things in Macon, Georgia during his tenure, so even if they falter this season, the Bears should find their way to the top of the conference standings soon enough.
8.  UNC-Greensboro: Tevon Saddler won SoCon Rookie of the Year honors last season, but he does not look like he has enough other pieces around him for this team to reach the upper half of the conference standings.
9.  The Citadel:  In a conference that has seen a ton of shifts in membership, the Bulldogs have been a constant.  They have the SoCon’s longest consecutive membership, having been in the conference since 1936 when their conference mates were the likes of Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, South Carolina, Clemson and more.  In all that time, they have never reached the NCAA tournament, and this year does not look to be a change.  Ashton Moore will lead the team from the guard position, but the Bulldogs are lacking in the size and talent to help him out much.
10.  Samford: Scott Padgett takes over as head coach, but he is going to have to rebuild this program from the bottom up with only one returning starter from a team that lost 20 games.

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Preseason Bracketology Podcast

Posted on November 2, 2014 by David Griggs

On this show, we build the bracket based on the Preaseason Top 25, and which teams were picked as conference favorites at media day.  We overcome technical difficulties, and got through it line by line as we put it together.

 

 

A look at what the bracket would look like based off of the preseason rankings

A look at what the bracket would look like based off of the preseason rankings

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Conference Preview: Patriot League

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Chad

The NCAA established divisions prior to the 1947-48 season.  Since then, some teams have left D1, but a ton more have joined (and some have left and then returned).  However, of the teams that have been a member of D1 continuously since the beginning, only five have never played in the NCAA tournament.  The most notable, of course, is the Big Ten’s Northwestern Wildcats.  Joining Northwestern on the list is William & Mary, The Citadel, St. Francis (Brooklyn) and Army.  The Army Black Knights should probably, however, have an asterisk next to their name on this list.  They actually were extended an invitation to the NCAA tournament in 1968, while coached by one Robert Montgomery Knight, but declined the invite and chose to play in the NIT instead.

This season, William & Mary and St. Francis are both among teams expected to contend in their conferences for a championship and an end to their streaks.  The same goes for Army, which has not played a postseason game since their appearance in the 1978 NIT, while coached by another notable name, Mike Krzyewski (and Coach K was a player on the 1968 Army team that declined the NCAA invite).  While the Black Knights may not be our preseason pick to win the Patriot League, it would not be a shock at all to see them dancing this season.  At the very least, a postseason bid to one of the other tournaments seems very likely, especially with all five starters returning including Kyle Wilson, who may be the best player in the conference.

Our pick to win the Patriot League this year is the defending conference tournament champions, American (which notably lost by 40 points in the NCAA tournament Round of 64 to Wisconsin).  The Eagles return four starters, add a pair of transfers in Kevin Panzer (Nevada) and Jonathan Davis (George Washington), and get 6-11 Zach Elanco back from injury.  However, this conference race has a chance to be very exciting as Army, Lafayette, Holy Cross (which made the CIT last season), Lehigh and Colgate all could be contenders — and that list does not even include last season’s regular season champion, Boston University, which played last year in the NIT.  The conference race is wide open in what should be one of the more entertaining leagues to watch all season long.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  American: Jordan Reed, John Schoof and Darius “Pee Wee” Gardner are the top returning scorers and form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference.  Combined with newcomers such as Panzer and Davis, the Eagles look to have what it takes to make a run at a return to the NCAA tournament.
2.  Army: Kevin Ferguson is a force down low to complement Wilson.  The best part may be that four of the five returning starters, including Wilson and Ferguson, are only juniors.  If the Black Knights don’t get their first bid this year, they should be right there again next season.
3.  Lafayette: The Leopards bring back five starters that all averaged double digits in scoring and should be right in the hunt for the league title.
4.  Holy Cross: Malcolm Miller and Anthony Thompson are the top players on this deep, experienced and balanced team.
5.  Lehigh: The Mountain Hawks expect freshman Kahron Ross to take over at the point.  If he can run the floor, combined with four returning starters, this team could be better than expected.
6.  Colgate: Austin Tillotson, Ethan Jacobs and Damon Sherman-Newsome will help make the Red Raiders tough to beat and could put them in the middle of this wide open conference race.
7.  Boston University: John Papale is the top returning player, but with their top three scorers gone, the Terriers look like they will be taking a step back this year.
8.  Navy: The Midshipmen return all of their starters and welcome back point guard Tillman Dunbar who was suspended from the team after only ten games last year.  An improvement on last year’s 21 losses should not be difficult.
9.  Bucknell: Chris Haas will be their top player this year, but big things may be needed from freshman center Nana Foulland if they want any chance at doing better than this prediction.
10.  Loyola: Dylon Cormier averaged 21.2 points per game last year (until going down late in the season to an injury).  He is gone for good now and the Greyhounds will struggle to find a way to replace his production.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO VALLEY

Posted on November 1, 2014 by Chad

The Murray State Racers cut down the nets last season, winning the championship . . . of the CIT.  The Racers defeated Yale 65-57 for the title, and will be looking to turn last season’s late momentum into a shot at an NCAA tournament bid this season.  The Racers return eight of their top nine players from last season and add several new pieces that should contribute immediately at well.  Cameron Payne, Jarvis Williams and T.J. Sapp could all be in contention for first team all-conference honors.  Quite simply, the Racers, at least on paper, look to be a level above the rest of the conference — even potentially good enough to steal an at-large bid.

Like the MAC, the OVC does still have divisional play, and it rewards the two division champions with its top two conference tournament seeds and byes into the semifinals.  Six other teams also qualify for the tournament, regardless of division, while four teams will not play beyond the end of the conference regular season.  The East Division looks like a three team battle this season between Eastern Kentucky (last season’s automatic bid winner), Belmont (which played in the NIT last year) and Morehead State (which played in the CBI).  If anyone can challenge Murray State in the West, the most likely contenders are Southeast Missouri State, Austin Peay or SIU Edwardsville.  SIUE has not won more than 11 games in a season since moving up to the Division I level, but appears poised to easily surpass that win total this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
EAST DIVISION
1.  Morehead State: Angelo Warner, Brent Arrington, and Bakari Turner lead a very deep team that should have what it takes to capture the division title.
2.  Belmont: Craig Bradshaw and Reece Chamberlain are back, but J.J. Mann’s graduation leaves a huge hole that needs to be filled.
3.  Eastern Kentucky: Corey Walden, the OVC Defensive Player of the Year, is back from last season’s conference tournament champions.  Unfortunately, three other starters, including leading scorer Glenn Cosey, are not.
4.  Tennessee Tech: Dwan Caldwell will be the team leader and probably the best player for the Golden Eagles.  However, there are not enough other pieces here to contend.
5.  Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks will be led offensively by Darion Rackley, but another 20+ loss season seems likely.
6.  Tennessee State: At only 29 years old, Dana Ford takes over as the youngest head coach in Division I.  He has his work cut out for him though with the majority of last season’s 5-25 team gone.

WEST DIVISION
1.  Murray State: Payne, Williams, Sapp, and Jeffery Moss are just a few of the pieces on this deep, talented team.  Freshman JayQuan McCloud could get some significant playing time too.  If the Racers score a few key non-conference wins, an at-large bid could be possible if needed.
2.  SIU Edwardsville: The Cougars return an experienced team that had a balanced scoring attack last season.  They could definitely be one of the surprise teams this year.
3.  Austin Peay: Chris Horton is good enough to average a double-double, just missing one last season with 13.2 points per game and 9.1 rebounds.  Head coach Dave Loos has brought in a talented group of newcomers that could have the Governors among the conference’s best teams.
4.  Southeast Missouri State: Jarekious Bradley may be the best player in the conference, but the Redhawks will need to find enough other pieces to help him out if they want to challenge for a high seed in the conference tournament.
5.  Tennessee-Martin: Myles Taylor is the Skyhawks’ top returning player, but keep an eye out for 7-2 freshman Nick Detlev.  In the end, this team’s ceiling, at least this year, may be just finding a way to qualify for the OVC tournament.
6.  Eastern Illinois: Reggie Smith will be the team’s best player, but another long season looms — especially if they cannot improve their 345th ranked defense against three point shooting.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: NORTHEAST

Posted on November 1, 2014 by Chad

The ten member Northeast Conference allows its top eight teams to participate in the conference tournament for a shot at the automatic bid, with all games being played at the home court of the higher seed.  Last season, Mount St. Mary’s turned a fourth place regular season finish into an appearance in the First Four by winning the tournament.  While the Mountaineers fell to Albany in their First Four game, they certainly earned their spot in the NCAAs by picking up NEC Tournament semifinal and championship game victories on the road at #2 seed Wagner and at #1 seed Robert Morris.

The Mount loses their top three scorers from last season and looks like they may struggle to even finish in the top eight this year.  However, the conference race appears to be wide open, with at least five different teams having a legitimate chance to dance.  Central Connecticut State is our current pick to win the bid (assuming leading returning scorer Kyle Vinales plays), but Bryant (led by perhaps the conference’s best player in Dyami Starks), Robert Morris (defending regular season champions who played in the NIT last season), St. Francis-PA (with defending NEC Rookie of the Year Malik Harmon) and St. Francis-Brooklyn (led by the dangerous Jalen Cannon) all have legitimate title hopes.  The wide open nature of this conference race should lead to an exciting regular season and perhaps an even more exciting conference tournament this season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Central Connecticut State: The Blue Devils return their top six players from last season, including Vinales and shot blocking specialist Brandon Peel.  Vinales, however, is currently facing a possible suspension after being arrested this past week.  Assuming he plays, at least during the conference season, this team has all the tools to win the conference title.
2.  Bryant: Starks together with a solid cast of returning players should be enough to compensate for the loss of their second and third best scorers from last season.
3.  Robert Morris: When your team’s best player is named Lucky Jones, you know that luck has to be on your side.  The Colonials should be right back in the mix for a third straight regular season crown.
4.  St. Francis-PA: Earl Brown averaged over 14 points per game last season, and with Harmon in his sophomore year and two other returning starters, a major improvement over last season’s 10-21 record is expected.
5.  St. Francis-Brooklyn: JC transfer Tyreek Jewell should be a huge addition this year, and with players such as Jalen Cannon and Brent Jones returning, the Terriers could have a shot at finally getting their first ever NCAA tournament bid.
6.  Fairleigh Dickinson: Mustafaa Jones is the only senior of note on this team, but if the young talent comes together around him, the Knights could surprise.
7.  Wagner: The Seahawks only return one starter from last season’s second place team, making a return to the upper division very difficult.  Expect Marcus Burton to lead the team as he moves into the starting lineup.
8.  Sacred Heart: Evan Kelly and De’von Barnett will be the best two players on this team, but just qualifying for the NEC tournament may be the ceiling this year.
9.  Mount St. Mary’s: With their top three players all gone, this team (which was only 13-16 before the NEC tournament) will most likely slide down even further in the standings and could struggle to just finish in the top eight.
10.  Long Island University-Brooklyn: Gerrell Martin and Landon Atterberry will help keep the Blackbirds in games, but two of their top three scorers from last season are gone off of a team that lost 20 games.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: MISSOURI VALLEY

Posted on October 31, 2014 by Chad

78-76, the final score of Kentucky’s Round of 32 win over the #1 seed Wichita State Shockers last season.  Fred VanVleet’s shot at the buzzer bounced harmlessly off of the rim and ended Wichita State’s undefeated season and dreams of a Final Four or more.  That was how close WSU came to beating the team that went on to lose to UConn in the national championship game.  But despite the heartbreaking way their season ended last year, the Shockers have plenty to look forward to in 2014-15.  While Cleanthony Early is gone, VanVleet does return along with Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton, Darius Carter and more.  WSU is clearly the favorite to win the MVC this season, and should be good enough for an at-large bid (if needed) and another high seed in the NCAA tournament (though a repeat as a 1 seed is not likely).

Wichita State was the MVC’s only NCAA tournament team last year, though Indiana State did get an invite to the NIT, while Illinois State played in the CBI and Missouri State was in the CIT.  Indiana State looks to be taking a step back this year, but both Missouri State and Illinois State will be tough teams to beat.  However, the two teams with the best chance of spoiling Wichita State’s run for another conference crown, or at least getting into the Field of 68 via an at-large bid, are Northern Iowa and Evansville.  Both schools return virtually their entire rosters from last season, and the Purple Aces look to be especially dangerous with D.J. Balentine, the MVC’s top scorer last season, leading the way.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Wichita State: VanVleet, Baker and Cotton will lead the way.  Look for Darius Carter to step up now that Early is gone.
2.  Evansville: Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius (a legitimate double-double threat every night) should have this team not only chasing the Shockers, but also in range for an at-large berth.  By the way, the Purple Aces do not have a single senior starter.
3. Northern Iowa: Former Virginia starter Paul Jesperson’s addition to an already loaded, experienced team will make the Panthers dangerous and could have them in the at-large bid discussion come March.
4.  Missouri State: Marcus Marshall is healthy again after missing most of last season with a knee injury.  His return should make the Bears difficult to beat.
5.  Illinois State: Four returning starters from a team that played in the postseason last year will make this team dangerous as well.  If Reggie Lynch can break out as a star in his sophomore year, they could be a surprise contender.
6.  Southern Illinois: Anthony Beane should put up a lot of points, but the Salukis need to find enough other pieces to complement him.
7.  Bradley: Mike Shaw transfers in from Illinois and freshman Josh Cunningham is a top 100 recruit.  However, the rest of the pieces may not be there yet, though the program is definitely heading in the right direction.
8.  Indiana State: Khristian Smith and Justin Gant will lead the way, but there are too many questions in the rest of the lineup with the loss of the team’s top two scorers from last season.
9.  Loyola (Chicago): Milton Doyle was the MVC Freshman of the Year last season and should be even better this year.  The rest of the pieces are not there yet to significantly improve on last year’s 22 losses.
10.  Drake: This looks like a long season for Ray Giacoletti’s team in his second season trying to rebuild the Bulldogs.

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