Conference Preview: Patriot League

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Chad

The NCAA established divisions prior to the 1947-48 season.  Since then, some teams have left D1, but a ton more have joined (and some have left and then returned).  However, of the teams that have been a member of D1 continuously since the beginning, only five have never played in the NCAA tournament.  The most notable, of course, is the Big Ten’s Northwestern Wildcats.  Joining Northwestern on the list is William & Mary, The Citadel, St. Francis (Brooklyn) and Army.  The Army Black Knights should probably, however, have an asterisk next to their name on this list.  They actually were extended an invitation to the NCAA tournament in 1968, while coached by one Robert Montgomery Knight, but declined the invite and chose to play in the NIT instead.

This season, William & Mary and St. Francis are both among teams expected to contend in their conferences for a championship and an end to their streaks.  The same goes for Army, which has not played a postseason game since their appearance in the 1978 NIT, while coached by another notable name, Mike Krzyewski (and Coach K was a player on the 1968 Army team that declined the NCAA invite).  While the Black Knights may not be our preseason pick to win the Patriot League, it would not be a shock at all to see them dancing this season.  At the very least, a postseason bid to one of the other tournaments seems very likely, especially with all five starters returning including Kyle Wilson, who may be the best player in the conference.

Our pick to win the Patriot League this year is the defending conference tournament champions, American (which notably lost by 40 points in the NCAA tournament Round of 64 to Wisconsin).  The Eagles return four starters, add a pair of transfers in Kevin Panzer (Nevada) and Jonathan Davis (George Washington), and get 6-11 Zach Elanco back from injury.  However, this conference race has a chance to be very exciting as Army, Lafayette, Holy Cross (which made the CIT last season), Lehigh and Colgate all could be contenders — and that list does not even include last season’s regular season champion, Boston University, which played last year in the NIT.  The conference race is wide open in what should be one of the more entertaining leagues to watch all season long.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  American: Jordan Reed, John Schoof and Darius “Pee Wee” Gardner are the top returning scorers and form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference.  Combined with newcomers such as Panzer and Davis, the Eagles look to have what it takes to make a run at a return to the NCAA tournament.
2.  Army: Kevin Ferguson is a force down low to complement Wilson.  The best part may be that four of the five returning starters, including Wilson and Ferguson, are only juniors.  If the Black Knights don’t get their first bid this year, they should be right there again next season.
3.  Lafayette: The Leopards bring back five starters that all averaged double digits in scoring and should be right in the hunt for the league title.
4.  Holy Cross: Malcolm Miller and Anthony Thompson are the top players on this deep, experienced and balanced team.
5.  Lehigh: The Mountain Hawks expect freshman Kahron Ross to take over at the point.  If he can run the floor, combined with four returning starters, this team could be better than expected.
6.  Colgate: Austin Tillotson, Ethan Jacobs and Damon Sherman-Newsome will help make the Red Raiders tough to beat and could put them in the middle of this wide open conference race.
7.  Boston University: John Papale is the top returning player, but with their top three scorers gone, the Terriers look like they will be taking a step back this year.
8.  Navy: The Midshipmen return all of their starters and welcome back point guard Tillman Dunbar who was suspended from the team after only ten games last year.  An improvement on last year’s 21 losses should not be difficult.
9.  Bucknell: Chris Haas will be their top player this year, but big things may be needed from freshman center Nana Foulland if they want any chance at doing better than this prediction.
10.  Loyola: Dylon Cormier averaged 21.2 points per game last year (until going down late in the season to an injury).  He is gone for good now and the Greyhounds will struggle to find a way to replace his production.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: OHIO VALLEY

Posted on November 1, 2014 by Chad

The Murray State Racers cut down the nets last season, winning the championship . . . of the CIT.  The Racers defeated Yale 65-57 for the title, and will be looking to turn last season’s late momentum into a shot at an NCAA tournament bid this season.  The Racers return eight of their top nine players from last season and add several new pieces that should contribute immediately at well.  Cameron Payne, Jarvis Williams and T.J. Sapp could all be in contention for first team all-conference honors.  Quite simply, the Racers, at least on paper, look to be a level above the rest of the conference — even potentially good enough to steal an at-large bid.

Like the MAC, the OVC does still have divisional play, and it rewards the two division champions with its top two conference tournament seeds and byes into the semifinals.  Six other teams also qualify for the tournament, regardless of division, while four teams will not play beyond the end of the conference regular season.  The East Division looks like a three team battle this season between Eastern Kentucky (last season’s automatic bid winner), Belmont (which played in the NIT last year) and Morehead State (which played in the CBI).  If anyone can challenge Murray State in the West, the most likely contenders are Southeast Missouri State, Austin Peay or SIU Edwardsville.  SIUE has not won more than 11 games in a season since moving up to the Division I level, but appears poised to easily surpass that win total this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
EAST DIVISION
1.  Morehead State: Angelo Warner, Brent Arrington, and Bakari Turner lead a very deep team that should have what it takes to capture the division title.
2.  Belmont: Craig Bradshaw and Reece Chamberlain are back, but J.J. Mann’s graduation leaves a huge hole that needs to be filled.
3.  Eastern Kentucky: Corey Walden, the OVC Defensive Player of the Year, is back from last season’s conference tournament champions.  Unfortunately, three other starters, including leading scorer Glenn Cosey, are not.
4.  Tennessee Tech: Dwan Caldwell will be the team leader and probably the best player for the Golden Eagles.  However, there are not enough other pieces here to contend.
5.  Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks will be led offensively by Darion Rackley, but another 20+ loss season seems likely.
6.  Tennessee State: At only 29 years old, Dana Ford takes over as the youngest head coach in Division I.  He has his work cut out for him though with the majority of last season’s 5-25 team gone.

WEST DIVISION
1.  Murray State: Payne, Williams, Sapp, and Jeffery Moss are just a few of the pieces on this deep, talented team.  Freshman JayQuan McCloud could get some significant playing time too.  If the Racers score a few key non-conference wins, an at-large bid could be possible if needed.
2.  SIU Edwardsville: The Cougars return an experienced team that had a balanced scoring attack last season.  They could definitely be one of the surprise teams this year.
3.  Austin Peay: Chris Horton is good enough to average a double-double, just missing one last season with 13.2 points per game and 9.1 rebounds.  Head coach Dave Loos has brought in a talented group of newcomers that could have the Governors among the conference’s best teams.
4.  Southeast Missouri State: Jarekious Bradley may be the best player in the conference, but the Redhawks will need to find enough other pieces to help him out if they want to challenge for a high seed in the conference tournament.
5.  Tennessee-Martin: Myles Taylor is the Skyhawks’ top returning player, but keep an eye out for 7-2 freshman Nick Detlev.  In the end, this team’s ceiling, at least this year, may be just finding a way to qualify for the OVC tournament.
6.  Eastern Illinois: Reggie Smith will be the team’s best player, but another long season looms — especially if they cannot improve their 345th ranked defense against three point shooting.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: NORTHEAST

Posted on November 1, 2014 by Chad

The ten member Northeast Conference allows its top eight teams to participate in the conference tournament for a shot at the automatic bid, with all games being played at the home court of the higher seed.  Last season, Mount St. Mary’s turned a fourth place regular season finish into an appearance in the First Four by winning the tournament.  While the Mountaineers fell to Albany in their First Four game, they certainly earned their spot in the NCAAs by picking up NEC Tournament semifinal and championship game victories on the road at #2 seed Wagner and at #1 seed Robert Morris.

The Mount loses their top three scorers from last season and looks like they may struggle to even finish in the top eight this year.  However, the conference race appears to be wide open, with at least five different teams having a legitimate chance to dance.  Central Connecticut State is our current pick to win the bid (assuming leading returning scorer Kyle Vinales plays), but Bryant (led by perhaps the conference’s best player in Dyami Starks), Robert Morris (defending regular season champions who played in the NIT last season), St. Francis-PA (with defending NEC Rookie of the Year Malik Harmon) and St. Francis-Brooklyn (led by the dangerous Jalen Cannon) all have legitimate title hopes.  The wide open nature of this conference race should lead to an exciting regular season and perhaps an even more exciting conference tournament this season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Central Connecticut State: The Blue Devils return their top six players from last season, including Vinales and shot blocking specialist Brandon Peel.  Vinales, however, is currently facing a possible suspension after being arrested this past week.  Assuming he plays, at least during the conference season, this team has all the tools to win the conference title.
2.  Bryant: Starks together with a solid cast of returning players should be enough to compensate for the loss of their second and third best scorers from last season.
3.  Robert Morris: When your team’s best player is named Lucky Jones, you know that luck has to be on your side.  The Colonials should be right back in the mix for a third straight regular season crown.
4.  St. Francis-PA: Earl Brown averaged over 14 points per game last season, and with Harmon in his sophomore year and two other returning starters, a major improvement over last season’s 10-21 record is expected.
5.  St. Francis-Brooklyn: JC transfer Tyreek Jewell should be a huge addition this year, and with players such as Jalen Cannon and Brent Jones returning, the Terriers could have a shot at finally getting their first ever NCAA tournament bid.
6.  Fairleigh Dickinson: Mustafaa Jones is the only senior of note on this team, but if the young talent comes together around him, the Knights could surprise.
7.  Wagner: The Seahawks only return one starter from last season’s second place team, making a return to the upper division very difficult.  Expect Marcus Burton to lead the team as he moves into the starting lineup.
8.  Sacred Heart: Evan Kelly and De’von Barnett will be the best two players on this team, but just qualifying for the NEC tournament may be the ceiling this year.
9.  Mount St. Mary’s: With their top three players all gone, this team (which was only 13-16 before the NEC tournament) will most likely slide down even further in the standings and could struggle to just finish in the top eight.
10.  Long Island University-Brooklyn: Gerrell Martin and Landon Atterberry will help keep the Blackbirds in games, but two of their top three scorers from last season are gone off of a team that lost 20 games.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: MISSOURI VALLEY

Posted on October 31, 2014 by Chad

78-76, the final score of Kentucky’s Round of 32 win over the #1 seed Wichita State Shockers last season.  Fred VanVleet’s shot at the buzzer bounced harmlessly off of the rim and ended Wichita State’s undefeated season and dreams of a Final Four or more.  That was how close WSU came to beating the team that went on to lose to UConn in the national championship game.  But despite the heartbreaking way their season ended last year, the Shockers have plenty to look forward to in 2014-15.  While Cleanthony Early is gone, VanVleet does return along with Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton, Darius Carter and more.  WSU is clearly the favorite to win the MVC this season, and should be good enough for an at-large bid (if needed) and another high seed in the NCAA tournament (though a repeat as a 1 seed is not likely).

Wichita State was the MVC’s only NCAA tournament team last year, though Indiana State did get an invite to the NIT, while Illinois State played in the CBI and Missouri State was in the CIT.  Indiana State looks to be taking a step back this year, but both Missouri State and Illinois State will be tough teams to beat.  However, the two teams with the best chance of spoiling Wichita State’s run for another conference crown, or at least getting into the Field of 68 via an at-large bid, are Northern Iowa and Evansville.  Both schools return virtually their entire rosters from last season, and the Purple Aces look to be especially dangerous with D.J. Balentine, the MVC’s top scorer last season, leading the way.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Wichita State: VanVleet, Baker and Cotton will lead the way.  Look for Darius Carter to step up now that Early is gone.
2.  Evansville: Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius (a legitimate double-double threat every night) should have this team not only chasing the Shockers, but also in range for an at-large berth.  By the way, the Purple Aces do not have a single senior starter.
3. Northern Iowa: Former Virginia starter Paul Jesperson’s addition to an already loaded, experienced team will make the Panthers dangerous and could have them in the at-large bid discussion come March.
4.  Missouri State: Marcus Marshall is healthy again after missing most of last season with a knee injury.  His return should make the Bears difficult to beat.
5.  Illinois State: Four returning starters from a team that played in the postseason last year will make this team dangerous as well.  If Reggie Lynch can break out as a star in his sophomore year, they could be a surprise contender.
6.  Southern Illinois: Anthony Beane should put up a lot of points, but the Salukis need to find enough other pieces to complement him.
7.  Bradley: Mike Shaw transfers in from Illinois and freshman Josh Cunningham is a top 100 recruit.  However, the rest of the pieces may not be there yet, though the program is definitely heading in the right direction.
8.  Indiana State: Khristian Smith and Justin Gant will lead the way, but there are too many questions in the rest of the lineup with the loss of the team’s top two scorers from last season.
9.  Loyola (Chicago): Milton Doyle was the MVC Freshman of the Year last season and should be even better this year.  The rest of the pieces are not there yet to significantly improve on last year’s 22 losses.
10.  Drake: This looks like a long season for Ray Giacoletti’s team in his second season trying to rebuild the Bulldogs.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC

Posted on October 31, 2014 by Chad

Something rather extraordinary happened in the 2014 MEAC tournament.  The top seed, North Carolina Central, won the automatic bid.  The MEAC had, during the prior three seasons, been a source for crazy upsets, as the top seed had been knocked out in the quarterfinals by the 8 seed in both 2013 and 2012, and in the semifinals by the 4 seed in 2011.  The Eagles, who have only been a full Division I member since 2012, made their first ever NCAA tournament, losing to Iowa State in the Round of 64.  The MEAC also put two teams into the CBI, Hampton and Norfolk State.

This year, the MEAC should once again come down to a battle between NC Central and Hampton.  The Eagles have one of the conference’s top frontcourts, but have holes to fill in the backcourt.  Hampton is the opposite, with a solid backcourt but question marks down low.  In the end, our call is for superior guard play to beat out superior low post play and the Hampton Pirates to take this year’s crown.  Delaware State and Howard could also figure in the title mix, especially with Howard having arguably the MEAC’s best player in guard James Daniel.

One team that will not figure in the title race this season is Florida A&M.  The Rattlers are on the APR postseason ban list and will be ineligible for the conference and NCAA tournaments.  On top of that, virtually every player from last season’s roster is gone either via graduation or transfer, giving new head coach Byron Samuels a huge rebuilding project.  We here at HOOPS HD annually give out the “Centenary Award” to the worst team in Division I.  FAMU is our preseason pick to take home that title this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.  Hampton: Deron Powers and Brian Darden anchor one of the conference’s best backcourts.  If they can find some answers down low, the Pirates could be dancing this season.
2.  North Carolina Central: Jay Copeland and Jordan Parks help make up a solid frontcourt.  If they can find the pieces to fill in for offseason losses in the backcourt, a repeat could be in order.
3.  Delaware State: Kendell Gray may be the best big man in the conference and should help the Hornets vastly improve on last year’s 9-21 record.
4.  Howard: In addition to Daniel, the Bison return all of their starters and most of the bench.  In fact, they were the second youngest team in the country (behind only Kentucky) last season, and the experience that was built should make them a legitimate contender this year.
5.  South Carolina State: The Bulldogs appear to be heading in the right direction, and may be even better next season with most of the team being juniors or younger.  JC transfer TaShombe Riley is worth keeping an eye on this year.
6.  Norfolk State: With three starters gone from last year’s team, the Spartans need Jamel Fuentes and Boston University transfer Malik Thomas to step up in order to remain in the upper division.
7.  Bethune-Cookman: Mikel Trapp and Clemmye Owens should pace their scoring this year, but the Wildcats have too many holes in the roster to contend.
8.  Coppin State: For the first time in what feels like forever, Fang Mitchell is not the head coach at Coppin State.  Michael Grant takes over and has his work cut out with the top two scorers gone from a team that lost 20 games.
9.  North Carolina A&T: Bruce Beckford is the top returning player, but another long season seems to be in store.
10.  Savannah State: With only one returning starter, this looks like a rebuilding year.  Jeremiah Hill may be the best talent on the team.
11.  Morgan State: This could be a long season for head coach Todd Bozeman, though Atlantic City, NJ native Jahleem Montague is worth watching.
12.  Maryland-Eastern Shore: With every starter gone from a 24 loss team, only the woes at Florida A&M may keep the Hawks out of the conference basement.
13.  Florida A&M*: Two words — Centenary Award.  Byron Samuels will need to rebuild this program from the bottom up.

*Florida A&M is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.

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CONFERENCE PREVIEW: MID-AMERICAN

Posted on October 30, 2014 by Chad

There was a time when divisional play was all the rage in college basketball, with such oddities having existed as “Red, White and Blue” divisions in Conference USA and “Big East 6 and Big East 7” divisions in the Big East.  Those days seem to have finally passed us by, as only two conferences remain this season with a divisional alignment, the Ohio Valley and the MAC.  In the case of the MAC, the divisions are only used for scheduling purposes, as each team plays its division mates plus two cross-division foes twice, while going up against the remaining four teams from the other division only once.  The seeding of the conference tournament completely ignores the divisions, theoretically allowing for the top six seeds to all come from the same division.

Last season, Toledo was the top seed after a 14-4 regular season earned the Rockets a tie with Western Michigan for the best record in the conference.  The Rockets ended up in the NIT, however, after losing to WMU in the conference title game.  Western Michigan went on to the NCAA tournament, falling in the Round of 64 to Syracuse.  Akron, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan all also earned postseason bids, playing in the CIT.

This year, much of the same is expected as Toledo is the favorite to win the West Division and the NCAA bid.  The Rockets are a deep, loaded team led by seniors Julius Brown and Justin Hammond, both of whom averaged over 14 points per game last year.  All three Michigan schools (Western, Eastern and Central) could contend in the West as well.  The East Division should see Akron and Ohio among its top teams, with the Zips (led by perhaps the conference’s top player, Demetrius Treadwell) being strong enough to give Toledo a run for its money.  Buffalo, which won the East Division regular season title last year under first year head coach Bobby Hurley, may take a step back after losing three starters, but Kent State could figure in the mix in the East.  Finally, keep an eye on Bowling Green, one of the HOOPS HD preseason picks for a surprise breakout this year.

Predicted Order of Finish:
EAST DIVISION
1.  Akron: Treadwell leads this deep and experienced team, but the point guard position was a problem last season that they will need to find an answer for.
2.  Bowling Green: A finish at or near the top of the division would be a shock — to anyone but us.  Chris Jans comes over from Wichita State as the new head coach and has a team with four double-digit averaging starters returning, plus he gets Chauncey Orr back from injury.
3.  Ohio: Saul Phillips takes over as head coach after a ton of success at North Dakota State.  Maurice Ndor should thrive this season, and keep an eye on freshman Khari Harley.
4.  Kent State: Kris Brewer is the top returning player, but it is the newcomers that will decide this team’s fate.  Jimmy Hall (transfer from Hofstra) and Craig Brown (transfer from Rutgers) should both contribute significantly, and it will be impossible to overlook 7-4 Division III transfer Blake Vedder, who will be the tallest player in MAC history.
5.  Buffalo: Losing three starters, including their top two scorers, will make Bobby Hurley’s second season as head coach tougher than his first.  Will Regan averaged just over 10 points per game last season, but he will need to step up his game more and get some help for the Bulls to contend for the division title again.
6.  Miami (Ohio): While the Redhawks avoided the division basement for the first time in three years last season, the loss of Will Felder may send them right back down there this year.  Eric Washington (transfer from Presbyterian) takes over as point guard and will need to excel for this team to succeed.

WEST DIVISION
1.  Toledo: In addition to Brown and Hammond, keep an eye on Mississippi State transfer Dre Applewhite.  He will not be eligible until the second semester, but could be the X factor in pushing this team over the top.  If the Rockets can do enough in the non-conference part of the season (which includes games at Oregon and at Duke), an at-large bid could be a possibility if they need it.
2.  Central Michigan: All five starters return led by Chris Fowler.  The best part is that not a single one of the five is a senior.  This year could be good, next year even better.
3.  Western Michigan: David Brown was granted a sixth year of eligibility, which was huge for the Broncos.  The bad news is that Shayne Whittington, their first team all-MAC center, is gone.
4.  Eastern Michigan: Karrington Ward and Indiana State transfer Mike Samuels will look to star for this team that also features a solid group of backcourt players.
5.  Northern Illinois: With four returning starters, the Huskies should continue to improve, but they desperately need to find some offensive consistency.
6.  Ball State: Zavier Turner was MAC Rookie of the Year last season, and he is joined by Cincinnati transfer Jeremiah Davis.  However, three double digit scorers are gone form a 25 loss team and another long season likely awaits.

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