Small Conference Game of the Day – February 25

Posted on February 25, 2014 by Chad

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL at NJIT, 7:00 PM Eastern, No TV

The 2013-14 season is beginning to near its end.  Tonight, the NJIT Highlanders, the lone independent school, will play their final game of the season.  At 13-15 overall entering the game, NJIT will finish the year below .500 and will not even have a chance to play in the CBI or CIT.  The Highlanders did manage to put together a slate of 29 games this season, but it was not easy for Jim Engles’ team.  While at one time being an Independent was not so rare and scheduling, given that you could book games against other Independents right through into March, was not that difficult.  This is simply no longer true and the Highlanders need to find themselves a home before next season.  The team continues to look towards the Northeast and America East conferences and hopes to have something in place before the start of next season.  The addition of lacrosse and a planned new arena to replace/upgrade the Fleisher Center in Newark (the school is currently soliciting quotes from architects for an approximately $80 million investment in an upgrade to its facility) should make NJIT more attractive to these leagues as the school moves forward.

In order to compile a schedule for this season, Jim Engles was forced to frontload most of the team’s games so they would be played in November and December when other schools were willing to play non-conference games.  He scheduled the maximum number of non-Division 1 games (four) and played them all in February.  Finally, the end of the calendar was filled in with a handful of games against MEAC teams — because the MEAC’s 13 team size guaranteed that one team would always have an open spot in its calendar.  That is exactly how tonight’s game against North Carolina Central (actually one of two times the Highlanders played the Eagles this season) came about.

The NC Central Eagles enter tonight’s game at 21-5 overall and 12-1 in the MEAC, on pace to secure their first ever NCAA tournament bid if they can keep their winning ways up through the MEAC tournament.  They have an RPI of 124, BPI of 117 and KenPom of 102, all tops by a wide margin in their conference.  HoopsHD currently projects the Eagles solidly as a 15 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The Eagles beat NJIT 71-55 back in mid-January at home and there is no reason tonight’s score will not be similar.  Tonight’s game is NC Central’s second to last road game of the season, with only a trip to Norfolk State (arguably the second best MEAC team) left away from home.  Of course, this may not be a road game at all.  After all, this is a trip by a team from Durham, North Carolina to Newark, New Jersey . . . and as all college basketball teams know, New Jersey is the home away from home for at least one team from Durham.

NJIT has survived its first season of being the lone Independent.  If the chips fall right, it will be their only season as such.  While the college basketball season has come to an end for the Highlanders after tonight, the next few months could very well shape the direction of this program for years to come.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 24

Posted on February 24, 2014 by Chad

Check out this week’s Bracket Racket here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/24/bracket-racket-022314/

Check out my Monday Morning Bracketology here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/24/monday-morning-bracketology-february-24/

SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY at ALABAMA STATE, 8:30 PM Eastern, No TV

Southern University continues to lead the SWAC . . . but that may be meaningless if the NCAA does not clear the school for postseason play.  As we detailed here last week, the Jaguars received a mid-season ruling of ineligibility for all their sports due to discrepancies with the reporting of APR and GSR data to the NCAA from 2003-2009, before any of the current members of the team even decided to come to Baton Rouge.  The school is working hard to clear up eligibility for both the men’s and women’s basketball team before the March 11 starts of the SWAC tournament.  With Southern sitting at 12-2 in conference and 16-11 overall, and holding the only top 200 RPI and KenPom in the SWAC, the final decision by the NCAA will have a huge impact on the SWAC this season.

If Southern does not regain its eligibility, the next best team in the conference may be Alabama State.  The Hornets are two games behind Southern at 9-4 in conference and are the only other team in the SWAC above .500 at 15-9.  However, that 15-9 may be somewhat misleading.  Most SWAC teams tend to schedule “guarantee” games — road games at power conference schools for which the school is paid but does not get a return home game the following year.  Alabama State avoided doing that.  They instead scheduled the #335 non-conference SOS, resulting in the overall worst SOS in the entire country.  In fact, amazingly, tonight’s game will be only their fourth game all season against an RPI Top 200 team, and one of those was a loss back on January 27 to this same Southern team (the other two were losses to Illinois and Milwaukee).

As a side note, Alabama State is no stranger to academic ineligibility themselves.  The Hornets were one of four SWAC teams that were declared ineligible for postseason play this year due to their APR numbers (joining Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State and Grambling State).  Alabama State filed an immediate appeal of their ban and were able to demonstrate to the NCAA that some of the data that had been used was inaccurate.  As a result, their APR numbers were recalculated and met the minimum standards, resulting in a lifting of their postseason ban.  We can all only hope that Southern University is just as successful in their current appeal process, because the team that wins this conference and represents the SWAC in the NCAA tournament should be decided on the court — not in some NCAA paper pusher’s office.

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Monday Morning Bracketology – February 24

Posted on February 24, 2014 by Chad

It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my projected bracket through games of February 23, plus some notes on this week’s field.  Please note that I am predicting what the committee will do as of today:

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Davidson
(8) George Washington vs (9) Baylor

Spokane
(5) San Diego State vs (12) BYU
(4) Louisville vs (13) Belmont

Orlando
(6) Massachusetts vs (11) Minnesota/Missouri
(3) Virginia vs (14) Mercer

Buffalo
(7) Stanford vs (10) Gonzaga
(2) Villanova vs (15) Boston University

EAST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Kansas vs (16) Robert Morris/Southern
(8) California vs (9) SMU

San Diego
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Green Bay
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

Raleigh
(6) North Carolina vs (11) St. Joseph’s
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Iona

Buffalo
(7) Connecticut vs (10) Nebraska
(2) Syracuse vs (15) North Carolina Central

SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Vermont
(8) VCU vs (9) Arizona State

Spokane
(5) Iowa vs (12) Toledo
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) North Dakota State

San Antonio
(6) Texas vs (11) Louisiana Tech
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) New Mexico State

Raleigh
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Pittsburgh
(2) Duke vs (15) Georgia State

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Weber State/VMI
(8) Memphis vs (9) Kansas State

San Antonio
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Providence/Florida State
(4) Iowa State vs (13) Harvard

Milwaukee
(6) UCLA vs (11) Dayton
(3) Michigan vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara

Milwaukee
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) Colorado
(2) Creighton vs (15) Towson

National Semifinals: West vs East, South vs Midwest

Last four in: Minnesota, Providence, Missouri, Florida State
First four out: Georgetown, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Arkansas
Others considered: Richmond, Clemson, St. John’s, Marquette, Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Oregon, Utah, Tennessee

A few notes about this week’s bracket:
The Big Ten took the lead this week with 7 teams in the field, followed by the Big 12, Pac-12, ACC and A-10 all with 6 teams each.  The American has 5 teams in, the Big East and SEC have 3 each, and the Mountain West and West Coast each had 2.

Once again some fun matchups showed up this week, all unintentionally.  In the West, San Diego State vs BYU is an old Mountain West rivalry.  In the East, Michigan State got kind of screwed, having a to potentially play North Carolina in Raleigh in the Round of 32.  We also have a potential round of 32 “Big East” matchup between UConn and Syracuse.  Finally in the Midwest, Wichita State has a potential Round of 32 game against Kansas State (in St. Louis), and if seeds hold up, could play Creighton in the Regional Final.

Syracuse’s tough week knocked them from the #1 team overall last week all the way down to the 2 line, opening a spot for Kansas to move back into the top line.  Pitt suffered a tough home loss to Florida State Sunday night that had two effects.  First the Panthers are sliding down the bracket and are now barely holding on at a 10 seed.  They simply do not have the quality wins needed to be called safely in the field.  The win was also huge for Florida State, and when push came to shove I ended up liking the Seminoles’ overall profile just slightly better than the rest of the Bubble, giving them my final at-large spot.

Dayton and St. Joe’s have been two of the hotter teams in the country among bubble teams, and as a result both teams not only made this week’s field, but even avoided the First Four.  UMass also had a great week in the A-10 winning at George Washington and at home against VCU.  The Minutemen are solidly on the 6 line and have a chance to move higher if they keep winning.

The Big East took the hardest hit this week, as it appears this league could have anywhere from 2-7 teams in the field still.  Villanova and Creighton are solid on the 2 line, but the only other team in the field is Providence. and they are in the First Four.  Georgetown was my very last team left out, while St. John’s, Marquette and Xavier are all still on the board.  None of these teams seems to want to assert itself and grab a bid, and in fact Xavier is heading in the wrong direction entirely at the moment.

In the SEC, Missouri barely hung on to a spot in the field, though they have no margin for error left.  Arkansas (one of my first four out) has been playing itself back into contention and with a trip to Kentucky looming this week, could get a true signature win.  Tennessee, on the other hand, fell right out of my field and has a ton of work to do if they want to get back in.

Another new team to the field this week is BYU.  While they have four bad losses, they have offset them with wins away from home against Stanford and Texas teams that are single digit seeds, and picked up a solid home win this week over Gonzaga.  The Cougars must win their final regular season game next weekend, at dangerous San Diego, and pick up at least one if not two wins in the WCC tourney still.  BYU’s inclusion required me to shift one of the First Four games up to the 11 line and them down to the 12 in order to make certain they did not play a game on a Sunday.

Finally, among the single bid conferences, Delaware has lost 2 of 3 games prompting me to make the change and call Towson as the Colonial champion, especially with the conference tournament in their backyards in Baltimore this year.  VMI is my new pick in the crazy race for the Big South as Coastal Carolina suffered two losses this week.  Finally, Southern is still in my field and will remain my pick in the SWAC until their fight to regain eligibility before the start of conference tournament play is done.  In fact, I now like their resume better than both Weber State and VMI, and have them ranked #66 overall.

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Bracket Racket 02/23/14

Posted on February 24, 2014 by Johnny Basketball

HHDpodsOn our latest edition of the Bracket Racket, we recap what was a busy week in college basketball, focusing on:

  • Jim Boeheim’s silly meltdown at the end of Duke-Syracuse, and Cuse’s danger zone to end the season
  • Michigan’s surprise sweep of Michigan State and the implications it had for the Big Ten race
  • Wisconsin’s sudden resurrection
  • Nebraska’s tournament chances
  • The still-existent possibility of a 2-bid SEC
  • The muddle of the Atlantic 10 and Big East

We also preview the upcoming games this week, with special looks at St Joseph’s vs Dayton, Iowa vs Minnesota, and Nebraska vs Illinois.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 23

Posted on February 23, 2014 by Chad

YALE at COLUMBIA, 1:30 PM Eastern, NBC Sports Network

Heading into the season, Harvard appeared to be the clear favorite to run away with the Ivy League regular season title and the automatic bid that comes with it.  After the first month of the year, Princeton looked like the one team that might be able to challenge the Crimson.  As we got closer to the start of the conference season, Columbia looked like it might be the team instead.  However, the Ivy League regular season was disastrous for both.  Princeton has already been mathematically eliminated from the conference title race and Columbia sits three games back in the standings with only five games left to play.

With Princeton and Columbia’s failings in Ivy League play, most people would not have been surprised if Harvard had already clinched the conference title by now.  That has not happened.  The Yale Bulldogs, a team given up for all but dead after a 5-8 non-conference record that included losses to the likes of Bryant and Albany and no win better than Hartford, have streaked through the Ivy League season, standing at 8-1 in conference heading into today’s game including a 74-67 win at Harvard (their lone loss is a somewhat mystifying 73-56 loss at Brown).

Yale’s 8-1 Ivy league mark places them half a game behind Harvard with a chance to move back into a first place tie with a win today at Columbia.  Yale controls their own destiny, as winning all remaining games would give them an outright first place finish in the Ivy.  They could even afford one loss, as long as it is not their home contest March 7 against Harvard, and guarantee no worse than a tie and a one game playoff for the Ivy League title.  However, they do need to win games, and today’s game at Columbia plus their next game, Friday night at Princeton, are their two toughest contests in conference other than the Harvard games.

Columbia enters today’s game at 5-4 in the Ivy and 16-10 overall.  The Lions’ 147 RPI is third best in the Ivy behind only Harvard and Yale.  Kyle Smith’s team has been competitive all season, including a game back in November at Michigan State that they were in almost all the way and a six point loss to St. John’s in December.  While the Lions will probably not be in postseason play this year unless the CIT comes calling, they have definitely shown the ability to play with the “big boys” this season.  And they will definitely impact the balance of the Ivy League schedule as they not only host Yale today, but have a trip to Harvard (whom they lost to in double OT last weekend) next Saturday.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 22nd

Posted on February 22, 2014 by David Griggs

SYRACUSE AT DUKE (ACC). This is the showcase game of the day. Everyone is expecting a great game because of what happened the first time they met, but it wouldn’t shock me if Duke won big. Both teams are coming off losses and looking to rebound, but Syracuse lost to a really bad Boston College team, and hadn’t been playing all that well prior to that loss. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t end up on the #1 line. Having said that, if they win tonight, it’s hard to say that they shouldn’t be a #1 seed.

-XAVIER AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). I think both of these teams are on the bubble, but Xavier is probably in better shape than Georgetown. They desperately need a decent road win, though. Georgetown desperately needs a win of any kind. It’s a very pivotal and very important game for both teams.

-FLORIDA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Florida will likely get the top #1 seed if they win out.

-LOUISVILLE AT CINCINNATI (American). The big knock on Louisville is a lack of quality wins. This would be HUGE quality win if they’re able to pull it off.

-WISCONSIN AT IOWA (Big Ten). Really good showcase game between two teams with great profiles that could both end up as protected seeds.

-WAKE FOREST AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). UNC’s win streak will likely continue, and if it does their profile will continue to improve.

-CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Clemson is outside the bubble, and making the field will require a strong finish to the season.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT VILLANOVA (Big East). I believe Saint John’s is outside the bubble, but a win like this could get them inside of it really quick. The problem is that they’re not going to be at full strength. The other problem is that even if they were at full strength, winning at Nova isn’t easy.

-TEXAS TECH AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). This is pretty much a must win for Oklahoma State. They can’t afford to lose any more regular season games.

-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). Both teams are on the bubble, so this is hugely important.

-NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA (ACC). The way the season is playing out, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Virginia finished first in the ACC.

-MARQUETTE AT DEPAUL (Big East). I don’t even think Marquette is on the bubble, but some do. If they want to make the field, they’re pretty much down to their last strike.

-DAYTON AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten). Dayton needs to continue their win streak if they want to land inside the bubble.

-FORDHAM AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s shouldn’t have any trouble getting the win and improving to 9-3 in the league.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). North Dakota State is a long shot for an at-large bid, but they have a healthy RPI and a first place finish should at least get them a look. This is a big game for them at home against an SDSU that is just a game behind them in the standings.

-TENNESSEE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Tennessee’s margin for error is pretty much zero.

-IOWA STATE AT TCU (Big Twelve). Iowa State is in great shape and shouldn’t have trouble avoiding the bad loss.

-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is safe and can lock up a good seed if they hold serve. LSU needs to win a game like this if they want to get any sort of a serious look.

-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). K State has been awful on the road, and could really improve their profile if they could get a road win against a tournament caliber team.

-LA SALLE AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). I feel Richmond is outside the bubble and because they’re shorthanded I don’t see them getting the wins they need to get back inside of it. But, as of now, they’re still in the discussion.

-UCLA AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). This is a big game for UCLA, who could really improve their resume with a good road win, and a bigger game for Stanford, who is on the bubble and needs a notable win.

-MINNESOTA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Minnesota is inside the bubble, but at the rate they’re going they’re going to cut it close….unless they can pick up a huge road win in a game like this.

-UTEP AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). This has suddenly become a log-jammed conference with five teams who could win it. These are two of the five teams.

-NORTHWESTERN STATE AT SFA (Southland). A win for SFA gets them to 25-2 on the year.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas hasn’t looked as good as we’re used to seeing lately, but this is a showcase game at home for them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they snapped out of it in a big way. I still think the Jayhawks are on track to get a #1 seed.

-DRAKE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). If Wichita State wins out, they’ll get a #1 seed.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). I think GW is pretty safely inside the bubble, so they’re playing with house money tonight. A win would be tremendous, and a loss won’t hurt them at all. SLU will likely end up as a protected seed if they win out.

-HARVARD AT PRINCETON (Ivy League). It’s a two horse race in the Ivy between Harvard and Yale.

-MISSOURI AT ALABAMA (SEC). Missouri isn’t the best road team, but they desperately need this one.

-ARIZONA AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). This is a really important game. It’s a chance for Colorado to show they are a solid tournament team, and it’s a chance for Arizona to show they should still be a #1 seed despite being shorthanded.

-PORTLAND AT BYU (West Coast). BYU is coming off a big win against Gonzaga, but they’re still right on the bubble and can’t afford a slip up to a weak team like Portland.

-TEMPLE AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis should win easily.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). It’s the game of the year in the Mountain West. San Diego State is clearly the better team, but New Mexico may be the better team when the game is in New Mexico. San Diego State is likely a protected seed either way, but a win tonight would pretty much solidify it.

-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). I think Gonzaga’s margin for error is small, and they don’t have another home game the rest of the year, so it may not be the easiest finish in the world.

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