It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology. Here is my projected bracket through games of February 16, plus some notes on this week’s field. Please note that I am predicting what the committee will do as of today:
EAST REGION
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Southern/Coastal Carolina
(8) California vs (9) George Washington
San Diego
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Green Bay
(4) Texas vs (13) Belmont
Buffalo
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Tennessee
(3) Villanova vs (14) Mercer
Milwaukee
(7) Massachusetts vs (10) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan vs (15) Boston University
MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Weber State/Robert Morris
(8) Arizona State vs (9) Minnesota
Orlando
(5) Iowa vs (12) West Virginia/Providence
(4)Cincinnati vs (13) Stephen F. Austin
San Antonio
(6) Oklahoma vs (11) SMU
(3) Creighton vs (14) New Mexico State
Milwaukee
(7) Memphis vs (10) Baylor
(2) Michigan State vs (15) North Carolina Central
SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Davidson
(8) Kansas State vs (9) Colorado
San Antonio
(5) Iowa State vs (12) Missouri/Xavier
(4) Virginia vs (13) Harvard
Raleigh
(6) Louisville vs (11) Louisiana Tech
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Delaware
St. Louis
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Stanford
(2) Kansas vs (15) Georgia State
WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Vermont
(8) New Mexico vs (9) Pittsburgh
Spokane
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Toledo
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) North Dakota State
Spokane
(6) UCLA vs (11) Georgetown
(3) San Diego State vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara
Raleigh
(7) VCU vs (10) Oklahoma State
(2) Duke vs (15) Iona
National Semifinals: East vs Midwest, South vs West
Last four in: Xavier, Missouri, West Virginia, Providence
First four out: Nebraska, Richmond, Dayton, Florida State
Others considered: St. John’s, NC State, St. Joseph’s, Utah, Arkansas, BYU
A few notes about this week’s bracket:
There are ten teams in the Big 12. Eight of those teams made this week’s bracket. I don’t see how that can possibly hold up, but right now, that is how I am calling it. After the Big 12, the Big Ten and Pac-12 have six each, the American, ACC and Big East have five each, the A-10 and SEC have four each and the Mountain West has two.
The Big Ten continues to suffer from having a pile of really good teams at the top that not only keep knocking each other off, but keep finding ways to get upset by the rest of the conference as well. I still think that if one team can assert itself and win the regular season title outright, following that up with a conference tournament championship, they may be in play for a #1 seed. Right now, I am still giving both Michigan and Michigan State 2 seeds, but neither team can afford to keep losing games. Nebraska is now seriously in the bubble talk as well, in fact being right there among my first teams out. If they can just hold form against the teams they should beat, it would not shock me at all to hear their named called on Selection Sunday.
In the A-10, I really like the way VCU is playing right now and despite the loss at Saint Louis, still have them rising in my bracket. Richmond and Dayton and still in the picture as well, though both teams sit among the first four out. St. Joe’s has very quietly put together a solid season and if they can pick things up the next few weeks may find a way in.
In Conference USA, Southern Miss has lost two straight to not only fall out of the field, but off the board entirely. They simply cannot put together a good enogh resume for an at-large bid now, especially given that they will have one more loss at least if they need one. Louisiana tech, on the other hand, is still in at-large contention should they win out until the conference tournament. Right now they are my pick for the auto bid.
Among other one bid leagues, Toledo has moved up my S-Curve enough that I believe the committee will take a long hard look at them should they falter in the MAC tournament. Georgia State, on the other hand, suffered a bad loss on national televsion at Troy over the weekend. I had probably been seeding them higher in my bracket than they deserved because of how they had been playing before that game. I took a long look at their profile this week and have dropped them all the way down to the 15 line. Their profile just is not very good overall.
The Sins of the Father – Southern University’s Ineligibility
Damien Goodwin, Trelun Banks, Keith Davis, Michael Harrel, Cameron Monroe, Bryce Clark, Calvin Godfrey, Frank Snow, YonDarius Johnson, Elex Carter, Tre Lynch, Dechriston McKinney, Malcolm Miller, Javan Mitchell and Christopher Hyder.
The roster for the 2013-14 Southern University-Baton Rouge Jaguars.
None of these kids broke any NCAA rules. Their grades have been sufficiently within NCAA guidelines. And they are all on the roster of a Division I school with a legitimate chance for an NCAA tournament bid this season. However, the NCAA may not let them play.
The NCAA’s Academic Progress Rate (APR) rules have been out there for enough time now that most people are aware that failure to meet the guidelines can get a team a postseason ban, most notably last year’s UConn Huskies team. Typically, in April or May of each year the NCAA announces the penalties for any schools that fail to meet the guidelines. An appeal process of the penalties is permitted (for example Alabama State filed and won an appeal this year). After the appeals are exhausted, the penalties kick in.
The NCAA list of teams facing APR bans this season did not include Southern. The Jaguars were the defending SWAC tournament champions and played the first few months of the season well enough to be considered the favorites to repeat. Then, in mid-December, the NCAA apparently contacted Southern and advised that there were some discrepancies and/or deficiencies in the school’s academic data from 2003-2009…from a time before any current player had even decided to attend the school! Last week, the NCAA announced that Southern, due to these discrepancies, would not be allowed to participate in this year’s postseason, not only in Men’s Basketball, but for all winter sports, including their first place women’s basketball team, indoor track and field, and others. Southern’s AD’s office is still working hard to comply with the NCAA’s requests and the ban could possibly be lifted before ths start of conference tournament play. But it may not be.
In other words, this season’s Southern U team may not be allowed to play in the NCAA tournament or even the SWAC tournament because someone in the front offices at Southern U messed up transmitting data to the NCAA from 2003-2009. Is compliance with NCAA rules and transmittal of accurate information important? YES. Should we penalize these kids for the “sins of their fathers”? NO.
When the Connecticut Huskies received their APR probation, every player on the team had a chance to transfer to another school. They could simply walk out the door, find another college and have a chance at playing in the Big Dance. The same has applied to every player on every other team to get a postseason ban. Except for Southern.
Damien Goodwin, Trelun Banks, Keith Davis, Michael Harrel, Cameron Monroe, Bryce Clark, Calvin Godfrey, Frank Snow, YonDarius Johnson, Elex Carter, Tre Lynch, Dechriston McKinney, Malcolm Miller, Javan Mitchell and Christopher Hyder entered this season believing they had a chance to play in the NCAA tournament. But now that chance may be disappearing, without even giving them the opportunity to play somewhere else. Five of them are seniors who may never play another meaningful basketball game the rest of their lives. This was their last chance at the excitement of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday and seeing their team listed on everyone’s brackets. And now, for something none of them had anything to do with, the NCAA has decided to end their season early.
At this point, whether a fan of the Jaguars or not, all anyone can do is hope the ban is lifted before the SWAC tournament starts on March 11. If it isn’t, a grand jury should investigate the NCAA for cruel and unusual punishment. This is a complete disgrace, NCAA. LET THEM PLAY!