Monday Morning Bracketology – February 17

Posted on February 17, 2014 by Chad

It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my projected bracket through games of February 16, plus some notes on this week’s field.  Please note that I am predicting what the committee will do as of today:

EAST REGION
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Southern/Coastal Carolina
(8) California vs (9) George Washington

San Diego
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Green Bay
(4) Texas vs (13) Belmont

Buffalo
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Tennessee
(3) Villanova vs (14) Mercer

Milwaukee
(7) Massachusetts vs (10) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan vs (15) Boston University

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Weber State/Robert Morris
(8) Arizona State vs (9) Minnesota

Orlando
(5) Iowa vs (12) West Virginia/Providence
(4)Cincinnati vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

San Antonio
(6) Oklahoma vs (11) SMU
(3) Creighton vs (14) New Mexico State

Milwaukee
(7) Memphis vs (10) Baylor
(2) Michigan State vs (15) North Carolina Central

SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Davidson
(8) Kansas State vs (9) Colorado

San Antonio
(5) Iowa State vs (12) Missouri/Xavier
(4) Virginia vs (13) Harvard

Raleigh
(6) Louisville vs (11) Louisiana Tech
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) Delaware

St. Louis
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Stanford
(2) Kansas vs (15) Georgia State

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Vermont
(8) New Mexico vs (9) Pittsburgh

Spokane
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Toledo
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) North Dakota State

Spokane
(6) UCLA vs (11) Georgetown
(3) San Diego State vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara

Raleigh
(7) VCU vs (10) Oklahoma State
(2) Duke vs (15) Iona

National Semifinals: East vs Midwest, South vs West

Last four in: Xavier, Missouri, West Virginia, Providence
First four out: Nebraska, Richmond, Dayton, Florida State
Others considered: St. John’s, NC State, St. Joseph’s, Utah, Arkansas, BYU

A few notes about this week’s bracket:
There are ten teams in the Big 12.  Eight of those teams made this week’s bracket.  I don’t see how that can possibly hold up, but right now, that is how I am calling it.  After the Big 12, the Big Ten and Pac-12 have six each, the American, ACC and Big East have five each, the A-10 and SEC have four each and the Mountain West has two.

The Big Ten continues to suffer from having a pile of really good teams at the top that not only keep knocking each other off, but keep finding ways to get upset by the rest of the conference as well.  I still think that if one team can assert itself and win the regular season title outright, following that up with a conference tournament championship, they may be in play for a #1 seed.  Right now, I am still giving both Michigan and Michigan State 2 seeds, but neither team can afford to keep losing games.  Nebraska is now seriously in the bubble talk as well, in fact being right there among my first teams out.  If they can just hold form against the teams they should beat, it would not shock me at all to hear their named called on Selection Sunday.

In the A-10, I really like the way VCU is playing right now and despite the loss at Saint Louis, still have them rising in my bracket.  Richmond and Dayton and still in the picture as well, though both teams sit among the first four out.  St. Joe’s has very quietly put together a solid season and if they can pick things up the next few weeks may find a way in.

In Conference USA, Southern Miss has lost two straight to not only fall out of the field, but off the board entirely.  They simply cannot put together a good enogh resume for an at-large bid now, especially given that they will have one more loss at least if they need one.  Louisiana tech, on the other hand, is still in at-large contention should they win out until the conference tournament.  Right now they are my pick for the auto bid.

Among other one bid leagues, Toledo has moved up my S-Curve enough that I believe the committee will take a long hard look at them should they falter in the MAC tournament.  Georgia State, on the other hand, suffered a bad loss on national televsion at Troy over the weekend.  I had probably been seeding them higher in my bracket than they deserved because of how they had been playing before that game.  I took a long look at their profile this week and have dropped them all the way down to the 15 line.  Their profile just is not very good overall.

Posted in Bracketology | Tagged , | Comments Off on Monday Morning Bracketology – February 17

Small Conference Game of the Day – February 16

Posted on February 16, 2014 by Chad

St. Francis College (Brooklyn) vs Long Island University (Brooklyn), 4:00 PM Eastern, MSG/Fox College Sports-Atlantic

The Battle of Brooklyn, Round Two, takes place this afternoon at the Barclay’s Center as St Francis College and LIU-Brooklyn square off.  Today’s game is the 100th all-time meeting in a rivalry dating back to 1928.  These two schools are just a few blocks apart in Brooklyn.  The LIU-Brooklyn Blackbirds hold a commanding 62-37 all time series lead though St. Francis did win the first meeting between these two teams this season, 78-64 back on January 9.

St. Francis enters today’s game at 15-10 overall and 6-4 in NEC play.  They are currently tied for third place with Wagner, two games behind second place Bryant and three behind conference leader Robert Morris.  At this point in the season, they simply need to hold form against the teams they should beat in order to get a top four seed and a chance to host a quarterfinal round game in the Northeast Conference tournament.

LIU-Brooklyn has struggled all season after winning the league’s automatic bid last year.  The Blackbirds sit at 7-16 overall and 2-8 in the NEC, in ninth place out of ten teams.  They enter today’s contest one game behind Central Connecticut and Fairleigh Dickinson in the loss column.  Given that only the top eight teams in the final standings qualify for the conference tournament, the Blackbirds need every win they can get the rest of the season if they want to even qualify into the tournament and have a shot at defending their title.  A loss today against their long-time rivals would drop them two games back in the battle for eighth place and into a hole they may not be able to climb back out of with only a handful of games left in the season.

Posted in News and Notes | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Small Conference Game of the Day – February 16

Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 15th

Posted on February 15, 2014 by David Griggs

-FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Florida is playing like a #1 seed, but they need a win like this on the road if they want to end up on the #1 line. Kentucky is solid, but still doesn’t look like a Final Four contender. This would probably be their best win of the season up to this point, though. It should be a good one. On paper, both are fine, but it’s more of a litmus test to see if Florida can win a tough road game and if Kentucky can beat a Final Four caliber team.

-MEMPHIS AT UCONN (American). These are two first ballot teams who could add another big win to their profile.

-SAINT JOSEPH’S AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten, Big Five). Saint Joe’s is outside the bubble and needs to put together a string of wins to get themselves into the field. Winning a rivalry game on the road would be a good start. This game has a pivotal feel because a win is a good conference road win, and a loss is another loss to a non-tournament team.

-VIRGINIA AT CLEMSON (ACC). Virginia is playing like they could end up on the #3 line if they can finish 2nd overall in the league. Clemson is still outside the bubble and needs a big push down the stretch.

-IOWA AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). This isn’t the easiest road win in the world, but Iowa is in good shape either way.

-PITTSBURGH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). UNC has strung together some wins and appears to be on the right track. This would be another notable win for their profile. Pitt still doesn’t have a win against a team that’s safely inside the bubble.

-TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Texas Tech has become one of the more exciting teams in the country, and as far away as they are from making the NCAA Tournament, they can take another big step forward with a win today. Iowa State should be a protected seed so long as they old serve, which means avoiding losses to what appear to be non-tournament teams.

-VCU AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). This is a match-up between what is perhaps the two best teams in the A10. Both are safely in the field, and this would be a quality win for either team.

-OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). BEDLAM!!!!!! Oklahoma State is not showing any signs of coming out of their tailspin, and I’m sure Oklahoma has no sympathy for them. This is a high stakes rivalry game for both teams, but especially for Okie State.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA). There is as four way tie for first place in CUSA, and these are two of the four teams. Southern Miss suffered a bad loss earlier in the week, so if they want any chance at all at landing inside the bubble. they need to finish first and pick up notable road wins such as this one.

-DEPAUL AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Providence is a bubble team that cannot afford to lose this game.

-UMASS AT GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic Ten). Both these teams are inside the bubble, but UMass is falling fans and GW could use another notable win, so the game does have a pivotal feel to it.

-TOLEDO AT EASTERN MICHIGAN (MAC). The more I think about it, the more I believe Toledo will be safely in the field if they win out. Anything less than that and they’re in trouble, though.

-NC STATE AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Syracuse will likely remain unbeaten and continue to be projected as the overall #1 seed.

-HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati shouldn’t have any trouble in this one.

-CALIFORNIA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). Cal has become very schizophrenic lately and really needs this road win to help stabilize their profile.

-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas shouldn’t have too much trouble rebounding from their loss to K State from earlier in the week.

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East). This would be Xavier’s best road win of the season, and really do a lot to increase the value of their NCAA Tournament profile.

-TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI (SEC). Both teams are outside the bubble and really can’t afford to lose this one.

-GREEN BAY AT CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon League). Green Bay cannot afford another loss, and even winning out may not be enough.

-INDIANA AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Indiana is now outside the bubble and needs a few wins just to get back in the conversation. Beating their rival on the road would be a good start.

-SFA AT SAM HOUSTON (Southland). SFA will be on the board if they win out.  See Chad Sherwood’s SCGD here:  https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/15/small-conference-game-of-the-day-february-15-2/

-UTAH AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). UCLA is solid and should be able to hold serve in this one. Utah has just one road win on the season.

-MARYLAND AT DUKE (ACC). This has been a great rivalry in recent years, and this is the last year we’re going to see it. Unfortunately, it appears to be a huge mismatch, so it isn’t likely to go out with a bang. Duke’s team and profile are continuing to improve.

-PRINCETON AT YALE (Ivy League). Yale now controls their own destiny in the Ivy League, and will win the automatic bid if they win out.

-HARVARD AT CORNELL (Ivy League). Harvard is the other team that controls their own destiny. They’re in a first place tie with Yale.

-FORDHAM AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). I thought Richmond was done due to injuries, but they haven’t gone away, and likely won’t have too much trouble winning this one at home.

-NEVADA AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico will be in good shape so long as they hold serve in games like this.

-STANFORD AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). Stanford is on the bubble and really cannot afford to lose to a team as weak as Wazzu.

-KANSAS STATE AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Kansas State appears to be safely in the field, but they have been terrible on the road this year. Baylor’s conference record is really hurting their profile and they need to string together some wins just to secure their inclusion.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS (Big Twelve). West Virginia is playing really well right now, and can probably end up inside the bubble if they pull off this win. Texas is still safely in the field, but needs to hold serve if they ‘re going to end up as a protected seed.

-OHIO STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). It’s a road game for Ohio State against a team that won’t make the field.

-BYU AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). Both teams are outside the bubble, and need to win out to have any chance at all of getting in.

-LMU AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Gonzaga needs to win out in order to feel safe.

-AIR FORCE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State pretty much has not shot at a #1 seed, but should do no worse than the #3 line so long as they hold serve.

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 15th

Small Conference Game of the Day – February 15

Posted on February 15, 2014 by Chad

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN at SAM HOUSTON STATE, 4:45 PM Eastern, espn3

Stephen F. Austin has begun making some noise nationally recently with a gaudy overall record.  Entering play today, the Lumberjacks are 23-2 overall and 12-0 in Southland Conference play.  They are one of seven teams that remain undefeated within their conference.  While a gaudy record like this would normally have a team sniffing at a Top 25 ranking and in contention for an at-large bid should they slip in their conference tournament, SFA’s wins have come against pretty much the weakest competition out there.  In fact, the only top 150 wins that SFA has to date came over Towson and Sam Houston State both at home.  The only real challenge they have had all season was a game back in November at Texas…which they lost 72-62.

Given the weakness of their schedule, today’s trip to Sam Houston State (18-6 overall, 10-2 in conference) is actually SFA’s toughest game of the season to date (and the toughest they will have before postseason play).  The Bearkats are not by any means a great team this year, sitting with a 186 KenPom and a 113 RPI heading into the day.  However, they have opened up a two game lead over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi for second place in the Southland and are the most likely team to knock Stephen F. Austin off.  they will certainly have a chance to do just that today, as well as put themselves back in contention for a regular season title.

Posted in News and Notes | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Under the Radar and SCGD – February 14

Posted on February 14, 2014 by Chad

Tonight’s SCGD is Harvard at Columbia, 7:00 PM Eastern (no TV).  For more discussion about both teams, check out this week’s Under the Radar podcast.  In addition, David and I spend time discussing all of the single-bid conferences, reviewing who we feel will win the league, where they will be seeded, and just how dangerous each team will be in March.  We end with a discussion of the at-large chances for Toledo and for a couple of teams from Conference USA.  All of that plus our Under the Radar Top Ten list and a special preview of the David Griggs Valentine’s Day Special.

Posted in Bracketology, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Under the Radar and SCGD – February 14

Bracket Roundown: Feb 12th

Posted on February 13, 2014 by David Griggs

On this episode, Chad is joined by David and Kyle as they talk about the new rules for building the bracket, particularly how conference match-ups no longer have to be avoided until the Elite Eight.

Instead of ranking the teams as he felt they should be, David and Chad changed things up this week as he tried to guess what he felt the committee would do if the season ended today. Topics that were discussed was whether or not Wichita State would get a #1 seed despite a weak schedule, whether or not Kansas would get a #1 seed despite six losses, where a team like Louisville would land who is high in the rankings, but doesn’t have much of a profile, and whether or not there is room in the field for teams with poor records in conference play, but good profiles other than that.

All that, and more…

Here is Chad Sherwood’s SCGD:  https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/13/small-conference-game-of-the-day-february-13-2/

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on Bracket Roundown: Feb 12th