Monday Morning Bracketology – February 10, 2014

Posted on February 10, 2014 by Chad

It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my projected bracket through games of February 9, plus some notes on this week’s field.  Please note that I am predicting what the committee will do as of today:

EAST REGION
Buffalo
(1) Syracuse vs (16) Southern/VMI
(8) George Washington vs (9) California

San Diego
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Toledo
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

Milwaukee
(6) Connecticut vs (11) Providence
(3) Michigan vs (14) Iona

Buffalo
(7) North Carolina vs (10) Gonzaga
(2) Villanova vs (15) North Carolina Central

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Weber State/Robert Morris
(8) Oklahoma State vs (9) Minnesota

Orlando
(5) Virginia vs (12) Georgetown/Louisiana Tech
(4) Iowa State vs (13) Harvard

Milwaukee
(6) Louisville vs (11) Stanford
(3) Michigan State vs (14) New Mexico State

Raleigh
(7) Memphis vs (10) Baylor
(2) Duke vs (15) Mercer

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Davidson
(8) Kansas State vs (9) New Mexico

San Antonio
(5) Texas vs (12) Missouri/Xavier
(4) Wisconsin vs (13) Georgia State

San Antonio
(6) UCLA vs (11) Southern Miss
(3) Creighton vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara

Spokane
(7) SMU vs (10) Arizona State
(2) San Diego State vs (15) Boston University

SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Vermont
(8) Oklahoma vs (9) VCU

Spokane
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Green Bay
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) North Dakota State

Raleigh
(6) Massachusetts vs (11) Tennessee
(3) Iowa vs (14) Delaware

St. Louis
(7) Pittsburgh vs (10) Colorado
(2) Kansas vs (15) Belmont

National Semifinals: East vs Midwest, West vs South

Last four in: Xavier, Georgetown, Missouri, Louisiana Tech

Last four out: Florida State, Indiana, LSU, Oregon

Other teams considered: Dayton, Richmond, St. Joseph’s, Clemson, North Carolina State, Nebraska, UTEP, Utah, Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU
A few notes about this week’s bracket:
The Big 12 leads the way again with seven bids.  The Big Ten and Pac 12 have six each, American, Big East and ACC have five, Atlantic Ten and SEC have four, and the Mountain West and Conference USA have two each.

None of the matchups were put together intentionally, but the results of my bracket are always fun to look at.  UConn and Providence meet in an old Big East showdown.  A Larry Brown vs Steve Fischer round of 32 matchup features two classic veteran coaches.  And the South Region games in Spokane are just insane.  Not only do we have a Cincinnati vs Ohio State possibility in the Round of 32, but the two teams needs to get past a pair of killer mid-majors to get there in Green Bay and North Dakota State.

The biggest move at the top of the bracket came from Duke who is now my last #2 seed.  Notably, the Big Ten does not have a team on the top two lines, but then places three teams on the 3 line and has the top 4 seed as well as a 5 seed.  The Big Ten is running into a problem with all the top teams knocking each other off, and until someone emerges as the best team in the conference, I find it tough to crown any of the teams as a #1 seed contender.

I dropped Oklahoma State way down in this bracket and I am starting to wonder if the team that entered the season as a potential 1 seed contender may be moving closer to the Bubble than anyone ever thought they would be.  Okie State not only continues to lose games, but is losing its temper now as Marcus Smart will miss the next three games for his altercation with a fan.  While all indications are that the idiot in the didn’t get a tenth of what he deserved, Smart should have kept his cool and reported the bonehead.  Without Smart for trips to Texas and Baylor as well as a home game against Oklahoma, winning is going to be tough.  And, in my opinion at least, the committee should not look the other way at losses that occur while a player is suspended in the same way they should when a team is down a player due to injury.  The suspension is due to actions by the player — something well within his and the team’s control.  Injuries are due to random chance and bad luck.  While extra credit may be given to a team that suffered the randomness of an injury, none should be given to a team that suffers from poor decisions by its players.

Going back to this week’s field, the bottom of the bracket saw almost everyone losing.  As a result, Georgetown has amazingly slipped into the bracket along with Louisiana Tech.  The Hoyas have been playing much better the past couple of weeks and are one of the few bubble teams whose stock is rising.  La Tech has been finding ways to keep winning even with Appleby out through the beginning of March.  Given the weakness of their remaining schedule though, they really cannot afford another loss until the C-USA title game.

Green Bay and Harvard both lost this week, resulting in their locations on my S-Curve falling below the four At-Large First Four teams.  While Harvard should still be able to win the Ivy League regular season and secure the automatic bid, Green Bay does run the risk of a conference tournament upset.  There is no margin for error left at all for the Phoenix, and even winning out may not be enough at this point.

Finally, a few new teams enter the field at the bottom of the bracket as Vermont is now the pick in the America East, VMI is the pick in the Big South, and Boston U has replaced American in the Patriot League after the Eagles lost two straight games to teams they should have handled easily.

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The Rivalry Show!!

Posted on February 9, 2014 by David Griggs

As we go into the week that is now known as “Rivalry Week,” David and Lee join Chad as they look at the big rivalries in college basketball. We also take a look at some of the rivalries that are no longer being played, and whether or not some of the new emerging rivalries will ever be as big as the old ones.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 9

Posted on February 9, 2014 by Chad

IONA at CANISIUS, 2:00 PM Eastern, No TV

First place in the Metro Atlantic is up for grabs today as the Iona Gaels travel to Western New York to take on the Canisius Golden Griffins.  Iona enters today’s game at 11-2 in conference and 14-8 overall, one game ahead of the Golden Griffins (10-3, 16-8).  The Gaels have won six straight to take the confeerence lead and look to extend it today.  Canisius is coming off of a home loss on Friday night to Manhattan, and looking for a bounce back win.  Jim Baron’s Golden Griffins are led by his son, Billy Baron, who is one of the best players in the MAAC and definitely the player to watch today.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 8th

Posted on February 8, 2014 by David Griggs

For Chad Sherwood’s SCGD, click here:  https://hoopshd.com/2014/02/08/small-conference-game-of-the-day-february-8-2/

 

-ALABAMA AT FLORIDA (SEC). The Gators are playing like a #1 seed right now.

-VIRGINIA AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Virginia got off to a slow start this season, but since ACC play began they’ve been playing really well. They should be able to pick up another road win today.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). PItt still hasn’t won a game against a team that is solidly in the field, but they’ve pretty much won all their other games so they should be alright.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT NOTRE DAME(ACC). UNC appears to be coming out of their bi-polar funk and have strung together some wins. This would be their fifth straight if they pull it off.

-BUTLER AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Georgetown is right on the bubble despite being just 13-9, so every game has a pivotal feel to it.

-NEBRASKA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). They’ve got to keep winning, but if they do, Northwestern will be right in the discussion at the end.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Texas continues to impress. K State is inside the bubble, but all of their big wins have come at home, so this won’t be a walk in the park for the Longhorns.

-KENTUCKY AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Kentucky could use some more road wins on their profile.

-MICHIGAN AT IOWA (Big Ten). This is a great showcase game between two teams who could end up as protected seeds.

-NC STATE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). NC State is just 14-8 and has a lot of work to do, but the bubble will be within reach if they can string together some wins.

-MILWAUKEE AT GREEN BAY (Horizon League). Green Bay should remain safely inside the bubble so long as they win out.

-TOLEDO AT BALL STATE (MAC). Toledo’s profile doesn’t seem to cut the muster, but they have a top 30 RPI, and that alone should get them a serious look if they win out.

-FLORIDA STATE AT MARYLAND (ACC). Florida State’s profile is good, but their team does not appear to be. . They could really use a conference road win right about now.

-PROVIDENCE AT XAVIER (Big East). Both of these teams are in a bit of a tailspin and desperately need to win this one.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). They’ve got a ton of work to do, but if West Virginia can pull off the upset today, they’ll be getting serious attention for the NCAA Tournament. I still think Kansas can end up with a #1 seed.

-DAYTON AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). Dayton needs this win very very very badly.
-TCU AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). It’s a sub-NIT team taking on a protected seed.

-AUBURN AT LSU (SEC). LSU always loses just when you think they’re a potential tournament team.

-SAINT LOUIS AT LA SALLE (Atlantic Ten). SLU continues to look like the best team in the Atlantic Ten, and if they win out they should end up as a protected seed.

-MISSOURI AT OLE MISS (SEC). Missouri is on the bubble and desperately needs to win more road games. Ole Miss is outside the bubble and needs to put together a string of wins just to get into the discussion.

-DUKE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). Duke has been playing well lately and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up the conference road win today.

-PURDUE AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Ohio State had an incredible week last week and can get back above .500 in conference play with a win today.

-BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). Baylor is right on the bubble and if they can’t pick up some more wins they’re not going anywhere. It won’t be easy. Oklahoma has been tough to beat at home recently.

-MCNEESE STATE AT SFA (Southland). SFA’s only chance is if they win out.

-YALE AT HARVARD (Ivy). I’m STUNNED that this was not Chad’s SCGD.  This game deserves a little more attention than it will likely get because it actually is pivotal. If Yale wins, they’re in a tie for first place with Harvard.

-CINCINNATI AT SMU (American). Really big game tonight. SMU lit up Memphis a week ago, and should be in for another showcase as they host Cincinnati tonight. I have SMU inside the bubble, and think a win tonight can get them even further inside. It’s a tough road test for Cincinnati as well.

-VCU AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s missed a chance at a big win earlier in the week, and if they want to get any consideration at all they need to step it up and take care of business this week. VCU, on the other hand, could use some more notable road wins on their profile.

-INDIANA AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). If Indiana wants inside the bubble, they need a big win in this game.

-WICHITA STATE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valey). Wichita appears to have their toughest tests behind them. If they win out, they’ll likely get a #1 seed.

-GONZAGA AT MEMPHIS. This is a fantastic late season out of conference showcase game for both teams. It was always a fun series before, and we should be in for another big game tonight. The biggest thing lacking from Gonzaga’s profile is notable wins. A win at Memphis would do wonders for that.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT BYU (WCC). BYU needs to finish strong and avoid bad losses if they want to end up on the bubble.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Okie State really needs to avoid a loss in this one.

-NEVADA AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). If San Diego State wins out, I cannot imagine them being seeded any worse than #2.

-UCLA AT USC (Pac Twelve). UCLA won huge earlier in the year, and can add a road win against a conference rival to their already solid profile tonight

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 8

Posted on February 8, 2014 by Chad

Southern at Grambling, 6:00 PM Eastern, No TV

The Bayou Classic.  One of the best college football rivalries, held annually Thanksgiving weekend in New Orleans between the Southern University Jaguars and the Grambling State Tigers.  And as college basketball heads into “Rivalry Week”, what better way to start it off than with the basketball version tonight.

Tonight’s game is also a battle between the best team in the SWAC and the worst.  Southern is the defending SWAC tournament champion and enters tonight’s game at 8-1 in league and 12-10 overall, being the only postseason-eligible SWAC team with a record over .500 and RPI, BPI and KenPom ratings in the top 200.  While Texas Southern was expected to be the team to beat in the SWAC this year, the Jaguars have a three game lead over TSU and appear to be well on their way to a #1 seed in the SWAC tourney.

Grambling, on the other hand, has not won a game against a Division I opponent since March 2012.  They are 0-9 in the SWAC and 1-17 overall this year, with their RPI, BPI and KenPom ratings all being dead last in Division I (though only narrowly worse than the ratings for Southern Utah).  The Tigers are a strong contender to repeat as Centenary Award winners, the award given annually by HoopsHD to the worst team in Division I.  While a win in today’s SCGD will certainly be a major upset, never count out the home team in a rivalry game.  After all, that is why they play the games.

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Under the Radar – February 7, 2014

Posted on February 7, 2014 by Chad

While the SCGD is taking the day off today, below find our latest Under the Radar podcast.  We take a special look this week at the six “transitional” teams and discuss the high level of play that we have been seeing from all of them this year, especially compared to some transitional teams of the past.  We then run through the single-bid conferences and discuss who we feel will win each one, and end with another edition of the Under the Radar Top ten lists.

 

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